2021 Draft Tracker Post | Draft Tracker Spreadsheet
1 – Andrew Painter
2 – Ethan Wilson | 3 – Jordan Viars | 4 – Micah Ottenbreit | 5 – Griff McGarry | 6 – Jose Pena Jr.
7 – Christian McGowan | 8 – Jason Ruffcorn | 9 – Gavin Tonkel | 10 – Logan Cerny
The Phillies went high risk and upside on day 1 with HS RHP Andrew Painter. The started Day 2 with risk in a different way with Ethan Wilson (2) who is a bit of an enigma. He had some of the best contact numbers in college this year after some big strikeout numbers and big power in previous years. He profiles as a corner slugger and was one of the best players on the board at the time.
A big surprise to me was that the Phillies Day 2 only featured one true money saving pick in RHP Jason Ruffcorn (8). Ruffcorn is the ideal college senior money saving signee. He has a plus fastball, useable breaking ball and a track record of success. He is nearly 23 and this kind of is what it is, but what it is a fastball up to 98 and the ability to log a bunch of innings. There is major league upside here (albeit more a low leverage reliever) and he should move quickly.
The rest of Day 2 was a real trip through the bizarre-ness of the MLB draft. The Phillies went young, they went upside, and they seemingly picked much of it in reverse order. Jordan Viers (3) doesn’t turn 18 until next week, has plus raw power, and was essentially unranked on sites across the board. It is likely he is underslot at his current pick and if the Phillies had taken him in the 7th-10th as a slight overslot, the whole thing works better. He still is a very interesting prospect with the power potential, but the lack of defensive value is going to put a lot of pressure on the bat.
Micah Ottenbreit (4) feels like one of those guys that goes to college and just gets better. The 4th round felt a bit early and I wonder if he is slightly under slot. Overall, he fits there other themes as a young HSer with good spin rates and projection. He sort of pairs with Jose Pena Jr. (6) who is probably the overslot guy here. Pena has touched up to 99 in workouts, but sat a bit lower in games. There is big spin on both the fastball and the curveball (which profiles as a plus pitch). He has a lot of the normal HSer caveats with control over command and a changeup that lags because it wasn’t needed. Both give the farm system some really workable things to try and build on. Both Ottenbreit and Pena are on the young side for HSers (May and July birthdays respectively)
In the 5th they took Griff McGarry who had a great postseason after walking about a batter an inning over 4 years at Virginia. It is big big stuff across the board, but the control has had like 3 starts of appearing. The easy answer is probably put him in the bullpen and simplify, but there is a chance at 3 plus pitches so they probably have to at least try to have him start. He is a 4 year senior so there is a good chance this is underslot, however the stuff is good enough that it is unlikely to bargain prices.
Christian McGowan (7) probably suffered from spending his 3rd year at a JuCo instead of a 4 year college (pandemic related), and has very interesting stuff as well. It is a fastball that can touch 99, but is normally just plus. He has both a slider and changeup, with the changeup being the better of the two. He is athletic, but there are delivery repeatability issues. He is probably a reliever, but might be a starter for now. It was a return to a very normal mid Day 2 pick.
Gavin Tonkel (9) worked out at CBP and appears to be the projectable HS OFer without big projection. It was a little off to see him on Day 2 as it is a profile that normally gets the most without counting against the pool on Day 3.
It looked like things might pack in after that, but Logan Cerny (10) was neither a senior money saver or a nobody. Big tools and big risk with Cerny who has one of the better power/speed combos in the draft. The hit tool is why he was still on the board, and he might take a little overslot to get done.
Overall it is a lot of tools and not a lot of wasted picks, it was just a perplexing order of picks. Overall the public rankings tended to lean more towards the college performers and the Phillies just didn’t play in that pool today, and were often way off of the public boards. They have not been afraid of risk and they have been heavy on tools. Notably exit velocity and spin rate appear across their draftees as noted attributes. They definitely slanted young on the high school side, and heavier on the HS side through 10 rounds than I have ever seen before (6 of 10). It is definitely an interesting draft strategy and one that seems more in-sync with development, it is once again one where the Phillies are asking you to trust them.
matt, hi! i’m a brand new follower and wet behind the ears in matters baseball recruiting and talent assessment. can you please define the terms underslot and overslot for me?
many thanks!
Each of the picks has an associated slot value (see the draft tracker). That slot is not tied directly to that pick (though you lose it if you do not sign the player), instead the collection of slot values in round 1-10 are your bonus pool. This allows you to go underslot and pay someone less than the value of their pick to pay someone else more than the value of their pick. It isn’t quite like trading picks, but it is the closest we have. Any bonus paid beyond $125,000 to pick in the 11th-12th round counts against the pool.