It is once again list season, a time and activity that brings me excitement and stress. Ultimately the list allows me to consolidate thoughts on a one year check in on the players in the system. The actual numbers help in identifying value and justifying that value. I don’t do OFPs or Future Values, but I am going to continue to chunk up the list into tiers, which are logical groupings of similarly valued to me prospects. That helps you hopefully see where the gaps are in the valuation and where differences may be more preference or risk tolerance.
Overall I tend to value upside and lower risk major league contribution. Ultimately to build a competitive team you need players that provide impact per appearance. On the other side, there is value to just being a major league contributor.
As for how I construct the list. I did not attend any games in person this year. That means I am reliant on video, to which I am lucky enough to have access for every level of the system. I have access to publicly available stats, including statcast for leagues (AAA and FSL) where it is present. I do not have first hand access to team data, but occasionally have third hand numbers. I also track velocity when available for non-statcast leagues via video feeds with verification from first hand sources. I also talk with people who get first hand looks, but very limited this year in talks with scouts or front office personnel.
I will attempt to cite specific information and opinions from outside sites if used directly. For stats I have used publicly available Statcast, Brooksbaseball (powered by Pitch Info), Baseball Reference, mlb.com, milb.com, and Fangraphs. For historical background on drafted players, international signings, and those acquired via trade I have relied on Fangraphs, Baseball America, and MLB to supplement my available resources as my tracking is exclusive to post signing.
You can find my collected information in these resources.
- Phillies MiLB Statcast Data (2021-2023) – Phillies MiLB Statcast
- Phillies MiLB Statcast EV (2023) – Statcast EV Data
- Minor League Pitch Tracking – Phillies Pitch Data
- Org Rosters – Phillies Org Roster
- Depth Chart – Phillies Depth Chart
- Draft Tracker – Phillies Draft Tracker
- International Signings – International Signings
A PDF Version of the list can be found here – https://drive.google.com/file/d/17S3YQFDB-KQaRa2lZ_c1fy2eyEV5VJWS/view?usp=sharing
All ages are as of opening day (March 28)
The top of the Phillies system is populated by the usual suspects, the last 4 first round picks (all high schoolers), their best international signing in recent seasons, and their breakout prospect who reached the majors in 2023. While the 1st round picks are not perfect, and all suffer from their own injury or weakness that makes them slightly less impressive prospects, they have also not failed in that realm, and that can be traced back to Alec Bohm (2018) and Bryson Stott (2019). Turning those top picks into major league caliber players is a good start. As for this group of six players, it is 3 distinct groupings for me.
- Andrew Painter – Painter may be missing all of the 2024 season after missing the 2023 season, but he is still one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, and the prospect in the system most likely to have an impactful outcome.
- Mick Abel/Aidan Miller – Both of these prospects belong in a top 100 prospect list for me. Not near the top, but more in that final quarter. I still am a believer in Abel, and I think his year represented a lot more change and transition than it looks like. Miller looks like a steal in the 2023 draft and has just enough concerns to not be a top prospect in the game, but in his brief sample size he showed a lot of strong underlying skills.
- Starlyn Caba/Justin Crawford/Orion Kerkering – Crawford and Caba aren’t meaningfully lower ceiling than Abel and Miller, but their risk is higher. Crawford has major swing and pitch recognition concerns, and Caba does not currently have the strength to impact a baseball at a major league level. Kerkering is a bit of an oddball, but he is a major league ready pitcher that could be in a high leverage situation this year, he just lacks the upside of the others due to role.
1. Andrew Painter, RHP
Age: 20
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st Round of the 2021 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’7” 215lbs
2023 Stats: Did not pitch in 2023
Role: #2 Starter
Risk: Medium – Painter will likely not pitch in a game in 2024 as he works his way back from surgery. He was major league ready last year, and so almost all of his risk comes from whether he comes back as the same guy. He has #1 or ace level upside, but he will need to once again prove he can handle a large workload.
Summary: Painter appeared in one game in Spring Training, where he showed a new cutter and a fastball up to 99. He then experienced soreness and pain in his elbow. Rest and rehab did not work, and eventually he had Tommy John surgery in July. Painter will likely miss the full 2024 season, and the only real possibility is that he makes a few rehab appearances late in the low minors just to get him on the mound before a full offseason. Painter turns 21 just after the season starts, so when he returns in 2025 it will be for his age 22 season.
When healthy, Painter throws a fastball that sits in the mid to high 90s and he can get it up to 101. Due to his size he comes from a steep angle, but he gets great vertical movement on the fastball up in the zone for swings and misses. He pitches off of that with a sweeping slider and vertical curveball. The slider was his best secondary pitch, and he missed bats in the zone and for chases away. He rarely used his changeup, but it flashed good potential. He was working on a cutter to work off of his fastball up in the zone against left handed hitters. He has good control and solid command of his pitches in their optimized zones. It is possible he will come back from surgery throwing a bit harder, because he is so young and projectable that two years of strength building will appear as a singular jump and not gradual growth.
2024 Outlook: Painter will spend 2024 rehabbing from surgery. At some point over the summer he will begin throwing bullpens and possibly against batters in the complex. By the time he may be able to pitch in games, it is likely to be right at the end of the season for all the affiliates. There is a chance he could appear in a short appearance to just get on a mound, but the goal will likely be to complete his rehab in preparation for a full and healthy 2024-2025 offseason.
ETA: 2025
Previous Rank: 1
2. Mick Abel, RHP
Age: 22
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st Round of the 2020 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’5” 190lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| REA (AA) | 22 | 22 | 5-5 | 108.2 | 4.14 | 6.0 | 1.2 | 13.5% | 27.5% |
| LHV (AAA) | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 4.2 | 3.86 | 9.6 | 0.0 | 12.5% | 25.0% |
Role: #3 Starter that sometimes looks like a 2
Risk: Medium – Abel’s stuff has not taken a backseat from when he looked like a front of the rotation starting pitcher. He has struggled with his command, in particular in getting hitters to expand the zone, and that development is worrying enough to think he might not have the consistency to be a front line arm, even if he flashes it.
Summary: It was sort of a weird year for Mick Abel, full of many changes that often went unnoticed under the surface numbers. He has started to really grow into his velocity, and while there is room for more, Baseball America (who has access to the full minor league data set) reported his fastball averaged 95.9 mph, and my tracking had him as 95-98 in most of his starts, getting up to 100. He faded some in his last start for Lehigh Valley, and he does lose some velocity during his starts, but he still has some room to add the strength and stamina. He doesn’t have ideal movement on his 4-seamer, but he gets good extension and consequently gets pretty low and flat despite his height. This makes it a good weapon up in the zone for swings and misses. In the last month or two of the season he began throwing a sinker as well, and it has large vertical and horizontal separation from his fastball. He throws a harder changeup (89-92mph when he was throwing the fastball in the upper 90s) that has improved over time and should actually be a good weapon for him. The biggest change is in his breaking balls. When Abel was drafted he had a more typical slider shape. That was lengthened out last year to a sweeper, but he never really had good feel or results with it and it blended with his curveball. They scrapped the sweeper in the middle of the year in favor of a harder gyro slider, and it already plays off his arsenal better. This allows him to more easily feature his two plane curveball, and it has grown into a plus pitch he is comfortable throwing in the zone or for chases. In the spring Abel toyed with a cutter, but given the slider change, the cutter likely gets put on the shelf as the cutter plays more in the same role as his new slider, as opposed to aiding a sweeper.
The problem with Abel has been command. He does have some occasional control problems stemming from some inconsistencies in repeating his delivery. He will just throw some uncompetitive pitches that will put him in unfavorable counts and compound his other issues. The Phillies are looking to simplify his delivery and shorten his arm path a bit, and that combined with getting stronger in his lower half is the planned solution to the delivery issues. The other command problem is less tangible and more interlinked into his full arsenal. Abel has a collection of above average to plus pitches, and while he can elevate the fastball up for misses, he lacks a true dominant pitch to get outs in the zone with. He has struggled to get chases out of the zone, and he has racked up balls and consequently walks. Some of the problem is that his arsenal had become predictable, with hitters laying off the fastball up and out or breaking balls away. There was some talk that he was also tipping the breaking ball some. To counter the arsenal problems, the Phillies have made some of the arsenal changes. The new slider is more of a weapon in the zone than the sweeper and, like the curveball, plays better off the 4-seam fastball up. The introduction of the sinker gives him another weapon against right handed batters, and a pitch that can work in the zone for poor contact. The sinker will also give him a more viable way to attack the bottom of the strike zone and open up the changeup as a chase pitch low, as opposed to having to play off the high four seamer.
It is a large arsenal for a 22 year old pitcher in AA, but if the previous arsenal visions of Painter and Abel were Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, then he is now more of a Zack Wheeler clone. He has a similar build and delivery to Wheeler, and now he has an arsenal that more resembles the current Phillies ace’s toolbox of weapons. Wheeler took a while to put it all together, and if Abel is going to hit a front of the rotation upside, it might be years into his major league career as his body fills out more and he has better command of how to use his full arsenal. Abel’s primary role in 2024 will be finding that consistent delivery and working on refining his collection of pitches. He also finds himself at the top of the minor league starting pitching depth chart and near to his major league debut.
2024 Outlook: Abel pitched a full season of innings the last two years and had the one start cameo in Lehigh Valley to end the year. He will need to be added to the 40 man roster after the year anyway, and as of right now is probably the Phillies #6 starting pitcher, but given his developmental needs it is likely they turn to others on spot starts, and he won’t get a turn unless there is a longer injury.
ETA: 2024
Previous Rank: 2
3. Aidan Miller, SS
Age: 19
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st Round of the 2023 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’2” 205lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| PHI (FCL) | 10 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 16.7% | 13.9% | .414 | .528 | .483 |
| CLW (A-) | 10 | 44 | 0 | 4 | 13.6% | 22.7% | .216 | .341 | .297 |
Role: First Division Regular
Risk: High – Miller is an older high school draftee who played 16 games (including playoffs) in full season ball. He has some length in his swing due to a pre-swing bat wrap that may need to be cleaned up when he faces more advanced pitching. He also posted very good exit velocity and plate discipline numbers in full season ball for a player drafted this summer.
Summary: Sometimes the draft is complicated, and sometimes it comes to a team. The Phillies have been short on picks and open to taking risks in order to compensate for talent loss. Miller was one of the top high school hitters in the country, but he is old for the class (was 19 at the time of the draft) and had not hit for power as a senior due to a hamate fracture. All of that makes him less attractive to a team heavy on analytical models or uncomfortable with the lack of scouting views. The Phillies were happy to take him, and they pushed him quickly to Clearwater after the end of the FCL season. Miller is physically mature, and while he will get stronger, he isn’t super projectable. That is fine, because in the small sample in Clearwater he put up an average exit velocity of 88.2mph, 90th percentile of 105.0mph, and a max of 109.3mph. Those aren’t off the chart elite, but it is 31 balls in play vs full season competition at age 19. He is going to have plenty of raw power, and some of how much shows up in games will depend on his type of contact and whether he continues to have an all fields approach or tries to pull in the air a bit more. His swing has some length to it thanks to a backwards wrapping motion at the beginning that also leads to an arm bar through the zone. He has great bat speed and it currently works for him, but there is some potential vulnerability against pitchers with better stuff. Quieting and simplifying the swing, and then readjusting timing is likely a discussion for when he encounters adversity, and not a proactive correction (unless he initiates it). For now it is something to keep an eye on, but not something to stay up at night about. The other reason it works is his pitch recognition and approach are excellent. Once again it is a small sample size, but he swung at 40% of the pitches he saw with the Threshers, with a 13.5% whiff rate on those swings and 5.4% of the total pitches he saw. The data says he was susceptible to sliders (30.8% whiff rate), but the small sample means that was 4 whiffs on 13 swings and 39 pitches seen. They were sliders up in the zone (which are becoming a more popular technique), but it was a glaring chase hole. If the swing proves to not be an issue, or is cleaned up with no loss of abilities, he could be a plus hitter with plus power and settle into the middle of a postseason lineup.
Defensively, Miller only played shortstop in pro ball, but he is unlikely to stick at the position. The Phillies have not indicated that he is permanently moving off of it, but he should start to get reps at third base, and it is not hard to read the room and see Trea Turner and Bryson Stott entrenched at short and second in Philly and see Miller as Bohm’s replacement. At shortstop he moves pretty well, but his range and movement were just not on the same level as the others the team had playing up the middle. Given that he is likely to lose a step or two as he fills out, it does not look tenable there either. At third, he has plenty of arm, and his actions at shortstop should play well at the hot corner. Until he plays the position, it will be hard to throw superlatives on it, but he has the tools to be an above average to plus defender. Miller is advanced enough that he should move pretty quickly for a high school hitter, and there is a chance that everyone is a bit low on the upside. For now, the sample sizes are small enough and the worries are just numerous enough that it is hard to project him with a higher upside, but another year of playing time could change that.
2024 Outlook: Miller will open the year in Clearwater and likely play a mix of shortstop and third base. Given his age and advanced approach, it is likely he gets to Jersey Shore by the summer. Any promotion beyond that will likely be due to season ending dates and postseason qualification for various affiliates.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: N/A
4. Starlyn Caba, SS
Age: 18
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies on January 15, 2023
B/T: S/R
H/W: 5’10” 160lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| PHI-W (DSL) | 38 | 164 | 0 | 16 | 17.1% | 9.8% | .301 | .423 | .346 |
Role: First Division Regular
Risk: Extreme – Caba played 38 games in the Dominican Summer League, and managed just 4 extra base hits during that time. He should be at minimum a plus defensive shortstop, and while he has the physical projection and athleticism to potentially grow into some power, it is not there yet.
Summary: Caba was the Phillies top signing in the 2023 international signing class, and one of the better prospects in the class overall. He is an athletic switch hitter, who much like Bergolla the year before, showed an advanced approach at the plate in his debut. He didn’t quite show Bergolla’s contact abilities, but it is still elite for his age and he managed it from both sides of the plate. He also did not hit the ball hard, but unlike Bergolla you can see more physical projection available, and he has a quicker and more athletic swing. Caba gets some comps to Francisco Lindor, and they are similarly sized, athletic, switch hitting shortstops with great gloves. Lindor ended up with much more power than expected with the 30 home run spike in 2017, and it is likely that a more optimistic projection of the strength and power growth for Caba is the 10-15 home runs a year that Lindor was trending towards early in his career. If Caba can continue the selectivity and approach he showed in 2023 and get to that power range, he will be an above average hitter. He might only need to get to below average to be an impact player given his defensive potential. He has a quick first step and plus speed, alongside good instincts. He seems to have enough arm, but I don’t know if I saw him really air one out from the hole to say whether it is going to be a weapon or just fine. He is going to be at least a plus defender barring something catastrophic happening. Unless he suddenly finds a bunch of strength and bat speed without losing the hit tool, he is probably not going to be a good enough offensive player to be a star. However, he could end up a valuable starter for a playoff caliber team, possibly even as a lead off hitter. Given his precociousness for his age and physicality, it is possible that Caba is promoted faster than his statistical production, and that it takes another 4-5 years for the full shape of his offense to come together.
2024 Outlook: Caba will be in Extended Spring Training and likely the Florida Complex League after that. The Phillies aggressively pushed Bergolla in 2023, so they could potentially push Caba if they feel like his hit tool can handle it. Most likely he plays most of his games in the complex, possibly mixing in some second base so others can get shortstop reps.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: N/A
5. Justin Crawford, OF
Age: 20
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st Round of the 2022 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: L/R
H/W: 6’1” 175lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| CLW (A-) | 69 | 308 | 3 | 40 | 8.1% | 17.2% | .344 | .399 | .478 |
| JS (A+) | 18 | 82 | 0 | 7 | 8.5% | 19.5% | .288 | .366 | .425 |
Role: First Division Regular
Risk: Extreme – Crawford put up great statistical results in 2023, but not in a way that will translate to being a successful major league hitter. He has the underlying physical tools to be a positive offensive player and plus defensive center fielder, but it is going to take the Phillies and him doing extensive work at the plate.
Summary: On the surface, Justin Crawford put up a great season, he hit .332/.392/.467 with 47 stolen bases and reasonable walk and strikeout rates. The first layer under the surface begins to show the cracks, his .404 BABIP was high, and especially so when taken alongside his balls in play. He had only a 16.6% line drive rate and was easily the minor league leader (min 300 PAs) in ground ball rate at 69.7%. The minor league batted ball classification had him with only 38 fly balls on the year and only 30 of them reaching the outfield. His Clearwater batted ball data had him with a median launch angle of -9 degrees, and while that made some slight improvements over the course of the season, his ground ball rate spiked again with Jersey Shore. Most of his success on offense came from his plus plus speed, balls on the ground, and inexperienced fielders in the low minors. Against major leaguers there is a chance that this approach would get him a decent amount of singles, but there are other warning signs. Crawford was an aggressive swinger (53.9% swing rate) who was equally aggressive against anything but curveballs (curveball swing rate 39.8%, all other pitches >50%, including sliders at 57.7%). He was able to make contact with a good amount of fastballs, but he posted high swing and miss rates on sliders and cutters. Most of this came in the form of chase, and pitchers had success against him down and out of the zone.
Many of these problems stem from two things, and unfortunately they are two of the hardest things to correct. The first is his pitch recognition. His overall swing rate is not a huge problem, but he was vulnerable to being caught looking on fastballs (and most pitches) away, but his swing rate on sliders being near where it was on 4-seam fastballs indicates an overall problem with pitch recognition. The other problem is his swing. Crawford’s upper body and lower body are completely disconnected, and his swing can just be all arms at times. That leaves his bat path chopping down, and he struggles to get on plane with a pitch to be able to drive it in the air. All three of his home runs came on balls down and in, and that was true of most of his power, as we can see on a heat map of his isolated power in Clearwater.
The pitches down and in are where his lower half is forced to be engaged on the swing, and he gets the loft needed to be able to drive the ball. Because he doesn’t have his lower half engaged, he doesn’t do damage on the pitches in the high danger parts of the zone.
It is clear that the Phillies and Crawford will need to work on his swing, and they have already started on that. Swing changes are not easy, but there are positive underlying numbers that indicate that these changes could make Crawford into a good hitter. Despite the swing problems and pitch recognition issues, Crawford had the bat control to have a low in zone whiff rate, and while often off balance, he was able to get the bat on the ball. Unlike some of the other hitters in the Phillies org, Crawfords exit velocity numbers are fine for his age. With Clearwater, he averaged 86.5mph, with a 90th percentile outcome of 103.5mph, and a max of 107.4mph. I hesitate to say that exit velocity on balls hit directly into the ground will translate directly into fly balls and line drives. Even if that doesn’t all translate with a swing change with more loft, Crawford is still very skinny and is expected to add strength. It is not unreasonable to think he could get to at least average raw power. He will still need to be able to actually tap into that with his swing, but having the existing wrist and arm strength to control the bat in the zone and still impact that ball is a good base.
This has all ignored the other part of Crawford’s game. He has plus plus speed, and he should be able to use it on the base paths and on infield ground balls. Additionally, regardless of the above discussion of swing changes, bunt base hits are going to be a part of his repertoire, and he already shows some proficiency in them. The speed also plays in the outfield, where he is already a good defensive center fielder. He lacks the instincts and route running that Johan Rojas did at the same level, but there is time to grow into some of that, and that will determine whether he is a plus defender in center or an elite one.
None of the flaws for Crawford are new or surprising, and he might have more upside now than he did a year ago. The risk of making a pretty dramatic swing change and the pitch recognition issues mean that he is very high risk despite the high defensive floor.
2024 Outlook: Crawford spent most of a month in Jersey Shore to end 2023, and he should return there to open 2024. He may make the improvements he needs and push himself to Reading by the middle of the season. He may also need to be pushed to a level where he is challenged in a way that forces him to make changes.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: 5
6. Orion Kerkering, RHP
Age: 22
Acquired: Drafted in the 5th Round of the 2022 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’2” 204lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| CLW (A-) | 9 | 0 | 1-0 | 10.1 | 0.00 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 3.0% | 51.4% |
| JS (A+) | 18 | 0 | 2-0 | 20.1 | 1.77 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 7.5% | 33.8% |
| REA (AA) | 21 | 0 | 0-1 | 22.0 | 2.05 | 7.8 | 0.8 | 5.7% | 37.5% |
| LHV (AAA) | 1 | 0 | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.00 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| PHI (MLB) | 3 | 0 | 1-0 | 3.0 | 3.00 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 14.3% | 42.9% |
Role: High Leverage Reliever
Risk: Medium – Kerkering pitched in the 2023 postseason for the Phillies and had some effective outings. He was likely the best reliever in the minors last season. His fastball is just ok given its velocity, and his command was just not quite where it needed to be in order to be a late inning shut down reliever.
Summary: Kerkering’s breakout started in Spring Training when it was clear he had made a velocity jump. He then conquered every level of the minors and ended up in the majors and on the Phillies postseason roster. Kerkering’s best pitch is his sweeper, which is plus plus, if not an 80 grade pitch. It has outlier sweeper motion in terms of vertical and horizontal movement, but he throws it harder than almost any pitcher in the majors (averaged 86mph in the majors, was closer to 87 or 88 on average in the minors) and with a spin rate that would be one of the best as well. He can throw it in the zone for strikes or for chases, and it has elite rates for in zone swing and miss and chases. His fastball velocity jumped from averaging about 95 in his pro debut in 2022, to 98+ in 2023, and he touched up to 102 with it during the season. Despite the velocity, he does not always get great results on it because the movement is not ideal. He told beat writers that he is working on his sinker this offseason. Having two fastballs will give him the ability to show hitters more looks, and while he can still work the sweeper in the zone off of high 4 seamers, he will be able to work east-west more with the sweeper and sinker the way that Clay Holmes has done. Kerkering has good command of his sweeper, but his fastball command can be lacking at times, and as was shown in the postseason, he will need to at least show hitters a fastball to keep them off the sweeper. Kerkering’s upside is as a closer for a postseason team, and given the Phillies bullpen usage, that could be for them as they move others around, or he could find himself in more of a stopper and 7th/8th inning role.
2024 Outlook: Kerkering will get a very good chance to make the major league team in camp. The Phillies have a bunch of major league arms, and many of them don’t have any minor league options remaining, so a poor camp could see him heading to AAA. He should spend most of 2024 and his career in the major leagues, likely in high leverage.
ETA: 2023
Previous Rank: 22
The Phillies have struggled to develop unknown talent, they have struggled on international signings, and they have struggled to identify and develop high upside prospects. This group is not a solution to all of those problems, and in the case of some players it is a warning sign of how things don’t always work out how you want them to. However, here in the top 15 are signs of growth, and if you want to point to how the team can continue to grow this is where you would look.
7. Eduardo Tait, C
Age: 17
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies on January 15, 2023
B/T: L/R
H/W: 6’0” 175lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| PHI-W (DSL) | 35 | 134 | 3 | 3 | 6.7% | 17.9% | .331 | .396 | .554 |
| PHI-R (DSL) | 9 | 31 | 0 | 1 | 9.7% | 22.6% | .346 | .419 | .346 |
Role: First Division Regular
Risk: Extreme – Tait hit the ball very hard for a 16 year old in 2023, and he does look like he should stick behind the plate long term. However, he is physically mature for a teenager, but with many of the same hit tool concerns as a teenager, and while he should stick at catcher, he doesn’t currently project to be a plus defender.
Summary: Tait was not the biggest money signing of the Phillies 2023 class (just $90,000), but he was getting some buzz even before he signed. He was one of the youngest, if not the youngest, players in pro ball last year, beating the signing cut off by less than a week. He is definitely larger than his listed height and weight, and while fairly physical now, there look to be ways to shape his body positively as he grows up. The bat is the special thing for him. He hit the ball hard all year, and while he probably can get the ball in the air a bit more, he mostly hit laser line drives. His swing is fairly simple, with great bat speed and good bat control. His approach at the plate is inconsistent, and he will show some patience in one plate appearance and then hack a bit more in the next. He swung and missed a bit in the zone because of this as well. Given his age and experience level, the negatives are not fatal flaws, but they will be watch points, and gaining consistency at the plate will definitely be a focus for him. The lack of age and experience is evident on defense. He looks stiff and mechanical at times, particularly in how he receives and frames. He has a strong arm, and he controlled the running game. He should improve with repetition, but he doesn’t have a feel for the position that stands out for his level. There is a chance that his bat outpaces his glove and the Phillies have to leave him at certain levels for the glove to catch up. There is also a chance that his offense suffers as he shoulders more catching burden. Given his production at his age, Tait has that special look, and if he can repeat his 2023 in 2024 he may establish himself as one of the top catching prospects in the minors.
2024 Outlook: The Phillies will bring Tait stateside in 2024 and he should play in Extended Spring Training and then the Florida Coast League, where he will likely be the youngest in the league.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: N/A
8. William Bergolla, SS
Age: 19
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies on January 15, 2022
B/T: L/R
H/W: 5’11” 165lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| CLW (A-) | 55 | 228 | 0 | 2 | 13.2% | 7.5% | .255 | .351 | .286 |
Role: Average Regular Infielder
Risk: High – Bergolla has elite swing decisions and contact abilities, and will stay up the middle of the infield as a defender. He also hit the ball with so little impact there is a real question about whether he will be able to hit higher level pitching.
Summary: Bergolla’s feel for the game stood out in his 24 games in the DSL last year, but it was still surprising to see the Phillies keep him in Extended Spring Training only to send him to full season ball instead of the complex for the second half. For an 18 year old in full season ball, Bergolla’s 30 walks to just 17 strikeouts is pretty incredible. The surface stats don’t tell the full story, Bergolla swung and missed 23 times or just 3% of the time on tracked pitches (Clearwater did play some games that were not in Statcast parks). While a very patient swinger, just a 39.9% swing rate, that only came to 7.6% of the pitches he swung at. We can see the selectivity further when breaking out his swing and swing and miss rates by pitch type. He only swung at 26.5% of curveballs he saw and 28.4% of the sliders, while swinging at 45.9% of 4-seam fastballs. We can see the difference in the in vs out of zone rate as well, as he is swinging at pitches in the zone, and in particular often the center of the zone.
When he is swinging in the zone, he is making contact as well (as we would expect given the overall contact number.
If we continue this out to breaking balls, here is his swing rate in the zone on breaking balls and his swing and miss on that same set of pitches.
He even got the ball in the air a good bit, running an average launch angle of 13 degrees, leading to a line drive rate of 23.4% and ground ball percent of only 41.7%. This all sort of dances around the major problem, which is that Bergolla had an average exit velocity of just 82.7 mph and a 90th percentile of 95.5mph, and his hardest hit ball was 99.8mph, making him the one player tracked with more than 10 ball in play and zero balls over 100mph. He had just 4 extra base hits as his fly balls died harmlessly in the outfield and he feasted on soft line drive singles. He definitely has more to unlock in terms of leveraging his body, and he is a teenager with more to grow, but for the most part this is a conversation about getting 0 power on the 20-80 scale to 20. He has a balanced swing and feel for getting the barrel to the ball, he just does not have the strength or explosiveness right now to make it count. He has solid speed, but he isn’t a good base runner or steal threat. In the field he can play shortstop, but as a regular I think he ends up as someone who plays more at second base. The lack of strength, and obvious pathway to it, is a glaring problem and one that could consign him to a fringe utility infielder upside. However, he is a 19 year old who does the hardest part of the game at an elite level and that is worth valuing, because if he ever can get the physical tools, he could be a special player.
2024 Outlook: Given that he played 2023 in Clearwater as an 18 year old, having Bergolla start 2024 back in Florida would not be a real setback. His approach is advanced enough that he could hold his own in Jersey Shore if the Phillies wanted to push him there.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: 7
9. Bryan Rincon, SS
Age: 20
Acquired: Drafted in the 14th Round of the 2022 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: S/R
H/W: 5’10” 185lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| CLW (A-) | 81 | 348 | 8 | 23 | 17.0% | 18.1% | .228 | .369 | .370 |
| JS (A+) | 18 | 77 | 0 | 4 | 11.7% | 16.9% | .258 | .364 | .323 |
Role: Average Regular
Risk: High – Rincon has the glove and athleticism to be an above average to plus defender at shortstop, and while that gives him a high floor he is going to need to hit the ball harder to be an everyday player.
Summary: Rincon made the list last year on the back of 12 games in the FCL, and those flashes solidified into a good prospect in 2023. Rincon got off to a poor start in April, hitting just .175/.266/.246 with 7 walks (10.9%) and 17 strikeouts (26.6%). Even with a cold end in Jersey Shore, he hit .236/.376/.370 with 62 walks (16.6%) and 61 strikeouts (16.4%) over the rest of the season. He is a switch hitter who saw the ball slightly better vs LHPs with less swing and miss, but hit the ball harder from the left side vs RHPs. Regardless of the side of the plate, he showed an advanced approach, though possibly a bit passive. With Clearwater, his swing rate was just 38.0%, while showing a much higher swing rate against fastballs than breaking balls. The one concern is that when he did swing there was some amount of swing and miss (20.2%), particularly against sliders (34.0%), and it isn’t a glaring issue yet, but something to monitor. Not chasing pitches is a good start, but becoming too passive risks putting himself in situations where he is down in the count and having to swing at the breaking balls. The other concern is that he got decent power output statistically, but his exit velocity numbers were near the bottom of Phillies batters at an average of 85.9 mph and 90th percentile of 99.2mph. He does get the ball in the air, and he maximizes the power he can get to, but the lower overall impact numbers are concerning. Rincon does have the frame to mature and add strength, but he also isn’t particularly lanky or projectable. Rincon played exclusively shortstop with the Phillies and he will stick there and be an above average to plus defender. There is some risk he is a below average hitter, but a good defender, and ends up more in a bench role. He does do enough of the positive things right at the plate and on defense that there is a definite path to being a starter for a playoff caliber team who hits in the bottom third of a lineup.
2024 Outlook: Rincon ended the season in Jersey Shore, and he will likely start and spend most or all of the season there. The park there is likely to treat his power poorly, and it would not be surprising to see what looks like a down year statistically.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: 46
10. Christian McGowan, RHP
Age: 24
Acquired: Drafted in the 7th Round of the 2021 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’0” 205lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| PHI (FCL) | 2 | 2 | 0-0 | 5.0 | 3.60 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| CLW (A-) | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 2.0 | 18.00 | 22.5 | 4.5 | 15.4% | 15.4% |
| JS (A+) | 5 | 5 | 0-0 | 16.0 | 2.81 | 8.4 | 0.0 | 7.7% | 26.2% |
| LHV (AAA) | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 2.2 | 0.00 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| SCO (AFL) | 4 | 4 | 1-1 | 17.0 | 3.71 | 11.1 | 1.6 | 9.1% | 15.6% |
Role: #4 Starter/7th Inning RP
Risk: Medium – McGowan is just a few months back into throwing in games post surgery. He had reliever risk before the surgery, and there are still worrying signs about his complete arsenal and durability post surgery.
Summary: The Phillies went overslot to select McGowan in the 7th round of the 2021 draft, and he had an intriguing debut that year, but 2 games into his 2022 season he suffered an arm injury leading to Tommy John surgery. McGowan returned to games in mid-July of 2023 and slowly moved his way up the levels before sticking with the BlueClaws through the postseason and then making a final start with the IronPigs. He then finished his season off in the AFL giving him 42.2 innings in his return to the mound. McGowan largely looked good in his comeback. He threw his sinker in the 91 to 96 mph range for the most part, and reached back for a bit more in his playoff start. He can manipulate his slider throughout the mid high 80s from more of a sweeper to a cutter. He has a high 80s changeup that he throws fairly infrequently, but has about the same run as his sinker with more drop as he dramatically kills the spin on it. For a pitcher just back from surgery, McGowan showed solid command, but he will need to tighten it up as he had a tendency to miss out of the zone on non-competitive pitches. His fastball-slider combination gives him a solid reliever fall back, especially since he has flashed higher end velocity. However, since he looked solid in his return and the Phillies lack any sort of starting pitching depth, it would be in their best interest to see if he can build on his 2023 season. Unless his changeup steps forward and he can really start to locate, he is probably more of a solid #4 starter, but there is a little more upside than that if he has another gear after a healthy offseason.
2024 Outlook: McGowan made his final start of the regular season in Lehigh Valley, but the Phillies are likely to use the IronPigs for immediate MLB contributors. McGowan likely is in the Reading rotation to start, but given he is Rule 5 eligible after the year, he could work himself into a spot start or bullpen appearance with the big league club late.
ETA: 2024
Previous Rank: 20
11. Carlos De La Cruz, 1B/OF
Age: 24
Acquired: Signed as an undrafted free agent by the Phillies in 2017
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’8” 210lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| REA (AA) | 128 | 582 | 24 | 3 | 9.3% | 27.5% | .259 | .344 | .454 |
Role: Second Division Regular
Risk: Medium – There is such a wide range of outcomes for De La Cruz because he is such a unique player. He is probably trending towards more of a bench role, but he still has the upside to be an impact hitter. He keeps slowly cutting down on his swing and miss, but there is only so much that a 6’8” hitter can do.
Summary: It has been a slow burn for De La Cruz who has had his downs over the years, but he broke out in 2022 and had a solid consolidation year in 2023. With Rhys Hoskins’ future in doubt heading into the year, De La Cruz also picked up the ability to play first base this season, and while fine there, it is likely to be more of a flexibility than a path to the majors now that Bryce Harper is installed there. He will run around in center field, but it is probably not something that should be done often. He moves well enough that he is a good defender in both outfield corners, and he has a strong arm as well. De La Cruz has an enormous strike zone and is susceptible to pitches on the inside, which has led to him running reverse platoon splits as lefties can just pound him inside. His size also leaves him struggling at times with fastballs, just because his arms are so long making his swing on the long side. His length does mean he excels at just reaching down and golfing breaking balls out. Like many long armed hitters, he also looks to and excels at hitting balls on the outer half of the zone. De La Cruz did hit a number of his home runs at home, but he has plus plus raw power and his home runs would easily clear any ballpark. The real key will be the contact and if he can make enough of it in the zone. The Phillies have worked on getting him better vs fastballs, and he has been walking more and bringing his strikeouts down at every level. His season is also harmed by a real cold end, as he was hitting .287/.359/.488 through the end of July before struggling down the stretch hitting .182/.304/.352 over the last month and a half. Even if he makes the majors in the next few years, De La Cruz could be someone that does not fully hit his ceiling until his late 20s.
2024 Outlook: De La Cruz has 167 games in AA, and the Phillies current right handed hitting outfielders in front of him are Weston Wilson and Matt Kroon, so there is a spot and path for him in AAA. De La Cruz will be a minor league free agent after the season, so the Phillies will need to add him to the 40 man roster or trade him right after the end of the season if they don’t want to lose him for nothing.
ETA: 2024
Previous Rank: 11
12. Gabriel Rincones Jr., OF
Age: 23
Acquired: Drafted in the 3rd Round of the 2021 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: L/R
H/W: 6’3” 225lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| CLW (A-) | 48 | 214 | 5 | 24 | 13.1% | 25.7% | .264 | .388 | .444 |
| JS (A+) | 72 | 319 | 10 | 8 | 10.3% | 24.8% | .238 | .326 | .416 |
| SCO (AFL) | 22 | 101 | 2 | 15 | 16.8% | 27.7% | .293 | .426 | .463 |
Role: Average Regular
Risk: High – Rincones is going to need to put up plus offensive numbers to have value, and he still isn’t turning his plus raw power into extra base hits at a high rate. He is never going to have a plus hit tool, and while patient, he swung and missed at a high rate against all pitch types.
Summary: Rincones didn’t make his pro debut until 2023, after an injury ended his 2022 season early. The Phillies quickly promoted him to Jersey Shore, where he struggled for much of his first month, before getting his feet under him. Rincones played both corner outfield positions pretty evenly and he is fine, but not great in either. He stole 47 bases in 142 games at pretty good efficiency (just 8 caught stealing), but he isn’t a particularly fast runner, just an opportunistic runner with good reads. All of that means that his value is going to come from his offense. Rincones hits the ball hard. He was only in the FSL for a month and a half, but his average exit velocity was 89.4mph, which is solid, but not MLB standout, however he led the Phillies minor league statcast hitters in 90th percentile exit velocity in that time at 107.2 mph with a max exit velocity of 113.3mph. He struggled to consistently get the ball out of the ballpark, as he ran a high ground ball rate in Clearwater and a high popup rate at both levels. Rincones is a patient hitter, and he will need to draw walks because his swing has a lot of miss in it. He is a bit stiff and he does not always engage his lower half to get loft. He does have a bunch of strength in his wrists, and he can drive the ball with only his upper half. Rincones did come from a small school and did not make his pro debut until 2023, so it is fair to think that he has a bit more improvement potential than your average college hitter. Something to watch is that Rincones really struggled vs LHPs, and there is a chance he trends more towards a platoon bat, but as a left handed hitter, there is a real major league role for that.
2024 Outlook: Rincones logged 72 games and 319 plate appearances for the BlueClaws before going to the Arizona Fall League. Unless he has a poor camp, he has a chance to break camp with Reading.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: 12
13. Samuel Aldegheri, LHP
Age: 22
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies on July 2, 2019
B/T: L/L
H/W: 6’1” 180lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| CLW (A-) | 16 | 15 | 3-1 | 67.2 | 3.86 | 7.8 | 1.1 | 10.3% | 27.1% |
| JS (A+) | 4 | 4 | 1-0 | 16.0 | 5.63 | 10.7 | 0.6 | 6.9% | 27.8% |
Role: #4 Starting Pitcher
Risk: Medium – For a pitcher who has not pitched above A-Ball, Aldegheri has a mature arsenal that looks like a back end starting pitcher now. The worry is that he will be more of a #5 or #6 if his arsenal slips or he is unable to execute his pitches at the higher levels.
Summary: Aldegheri signed back in 2019, and did not debut until 2021 and then barely pitched his first two years. Aldegheri was back healthy in 2023 and pitched pretty much the full year. He has a 5 pitch mix with his 4-seamer and sinker averaging about 92 and peaking at 94-95. He comes from a fairly high delivery and he gets good movement on the 4-seamer and can miss bats up in the air. His best secondary pitch is a mid 80s slider with two plane movement that he had a 42% whiff rate on with Clearwater. He will mix in a changeup that averaged 83 mph that is more average and keeps hitters off balance. His curveball in the high 70s is more big and loopy, and it is more of a show pitch that he used for called strikes. None of his pitches are plus, and his success is very reliant on keeping hitters off balance and not on overpowering them. He had a couple of starts where he struggled with walks, but for the most part he throws strikes and can locate his pitch to the parts of the zone where his pitches will have success. Aldegheri has a chance to move through the lower minors fairly quickly, and the real test will be in the upper minors and if hitters are able to square up his stuff in the zone.
2024 Outlook: Aldegheri made it to Jersey Shore last season and logged a career high number of innings. He likely starts there in 2024, and given that he will be Rule 5 eligible again this offseason, he likely gets pushed to Reading at some point.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: UR
14. Wen Hui Pan, RHP
Age: 21
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies on January 15, 2023
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’3” 220lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| CLW (A-) | 27 | 1 | 4-1 | 57.2 | 2.81 | 4..8 | 0.3 | 8.5% | 36.2% |
| JS (A+) | 6 | 0 | 0-0 | 6.0 | 15.00 | 19.5 | 1.5 | 13.9% | 19.4% |
Role: Mid Rotation Starter/Late Inning Reliever
Risk: Extreme – Pan had one appearance in 2023 that could be classified as a start, but this is the role he will reportedly be in for the 2024 season. His fastball is his only really fully formed pitch, and while you can see the outline of his secondary pitches, they aren’t there yet.
Summary: Pan was the Phillies second biggest signing of the 2023 signing period behind Starlyn Caba. He was not the usual international signing, as he was already 20 with an international track record and experience in his native Taiwan. He does not have a projectable frame, but there is still some maturation and strength to be gained. The good news is that he does not really need to grow into more velocity. He would fade in his “starts” and deep into pitch counts, but Pan routinely averaged over 96 in his appearances and was up to 100. He releases from a fairly over the top, but still high, delivery so he doesn’t get ideal plane on his fastball, but he will get large (20”+) IVB when he is consistently on top of it, and he managed a 31% whiff rate on the fastball with Clearwater, while also throwing it in the zone a lot. His secondary pitches are a bit murkier. He arrived with a whole bevy of pitches, and he threw a bunch of different versions of things over the course of the year. Right now the Phillies are working on narrowing him down to a splitter and a slider to go with the fastball. He gets very low spin on his splitter (just 600 RPM on average) and it actually moves more glove side than his fastball, almost like a cutter. He struggled to command it, with hitters swinging and missing, but he also struggled to throw it for a strike. His slider sat in the low 80s and is more vertically oriented, and he got even more swings and misses on it than the splitter, but he struggled to throw it for strikes just as much. It was a bit of a weird year for Pan, as he signed with the org in January and had a bunch of habits and training from his time in Taiwan that made it difficult to just throw him out as a starter in 2023. He faded down the stretch and was used as a closer late in the year. There is a case he should just be a reliever, and he could move quickly in that role. His fastball will play in any role, and if he can harness both offspeed pitches, he could be an effective starting pitcher. The Phillies will also need to increase some of his strength and durability, so he can hold his stuff deeper into his starts.
2024 Outlook: Even with the potential move to the rotation in 2024, Pan likely goes to Jersey Shore to open the season. Despite signing last year, he is already 21 years old and the Phillies are unlikely to baby him along.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: N/A
15. Griff McGarry, RHP
Age: 24
Acquired: Drafted in the 7th Round of the 2021 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’2” 190lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| CLW (A-) | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 1.0 | 9.00 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| REA (AA) | 13 | 13 | 1-1 | 54.2 | 3.13 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 15.6% | 32.0% |
| LHV (AAA) | 3 | 3 | 0-2 | 4.1 | 41.54 | 16.6 | 0.0 | 40.0% | 14.3% |
Role: #3 Starter/Late Inning Reliever
Risk: Extreme – McGarry has never consistently thrown strikes, but it is now two years in a row where he has reached AAA, and that has become an extreme problem for him. He still has impact upside, but he is now entering his 4th pro season and is having to have his delivery reworked.
Summary: When Griff McGarry’s 2022 season ended with him unable to throw strikes in AAA, it was concerning, but not disqualifying. McGarry has always struggled to repeat his delivery, and that has led to poor control and a high walk rate. His stuff has always tantalized enough that even with that deficit, there was a role for him in a bullpen or as an inefficient 5 inning starter. In 2023, he once again started the year late due to an oblique injury. He struggled in May and June to find consistency in Reading, having some dominant appearances next to ones where he walked the world. It looked like in July he was starting to put it together, and he was promoted to AAA after his first start of August. Up to this point, McGarry has largely shown the same arsenal he has before, a fastball that sat more in the 94-97 range, but would get up to 99, a sweepy slider, a harder cutter, a curveball, and a changeup. In his three appearances in AAA, not only did his control evaporate (14 walks in 4.1 innings), but his stuff also did. He was 91-94, getting up to 95 with all of his other pitches seeing similar drops. His delivery was all over the place, and the Phillies shut him down for the season to rework and simplify his delivery. It is a massive worry that he doesn’t even really have a fallback in a bullpen if he just cannot throw the ball over the plate. The reason to hold off on giving up on McGarry for at least another year is the stuff. The breaking balls all show at least plus potential, and while the changeup is inconsistent, it shows usability. It is a starter’s arsenal of pitches, capable of putting up big strikeout rates. It is all topped by the fastball, which has an elite profile. McGarry gets big extension and comes in low and flat giving it a good trajectory, but then on top of that he has good ride on the pitch too, making it an elite bat misser at the top of the zone. He obviously does not have the control or pedigree of these pitchers, but there are real arsenal and fastball similarities to a Jacob deGrom and Spencer Strider, and it also does not help that McGarry has a delivery that looks like a deGrom knock-off. All of that doesn’t matter if he doesn’t throw strikes.
There is a large contingent of the industry that thinks he is a reliever, I tend to see his problems as ones that are going to be fatal flaws regardless of his pitching role, and putting him in a bullpen is only really damage control, not optimization. The Phillies have talked McGarry up as a starting pitcher still, and that feels like the role that makes sense in a 5 inning capacity with a walk rate that isn’t great, a big strikeout rate, and solid run prevention. It is sort of a modern starting pitcher and one that many teams are developing, and given the Phillies emphasis on innings in their other starting pitchers, they can afford an arm in the rotation with high per inning effectiveness, even at a low inning count.
2024 Outlook: The Phillies say that McGarry is still a starter, and as of right now they don’t have enough starting pitchers in AAA, so it is possible they just send him there to sink or swim. Really the biggest thing to watch is whether the changes they made will help his command without sacrificing his high end stuff.
ETA: 2025
Previous Rank: 3
The Phillies concentrated the 2022 draft class and their international pitching in Clearwater to open the year. The result was one of the best performing teams in the minors. After injuries and promotions, Jean Cabrera and Estibenzon Jimenez formed the core of the rotation into the postseason. This section involves those arms, their opening day rotation mate, a late addition to the Threshers and three members of the 2023 class that will look to replace the success the Phillies had in 2023 for the 2024 Threshers.
16. Devin Saltiban, SS
Age: 19
Acquired: Drafted in the 3rd Round of the 2023 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 5’10” 180lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| PHI (FCL) | 10 | 46 | 1 | 5 | 6.5% | 15.2% | .333 | .391 | .452 |
Role: Average Regular
Risk: Extreme – Saltiban did not face top competition in high school, was not on the showcase circuit vs top arms, and is moving to shortstop having never really played it before signing. It is a decently long list of areas where he is going to need to prove something against an unknown.
Summary: The Phillies drafts under Brian Barber have been very comfortable with risk and small sample sizes, and no one probably exemplifies that more than Saltiban. He is a high school outfielder from Hawaii who did not really appear in showcases and was relatively unknown. As a high schooler he played 11 games in the MLB Draft League for West Virginia against college aged guys and was good. He then reportedly excelled at the Draft Combine. The Phillies took him in the draft and announced him as a shortstop, despite him never really playing there (it turns out that a crosschecker saw him on the infield and made the suggestion). He looks promising at shortstop, but it is still very early in that process. He might have enough speed to move out to center field if the infield experiment doesn’t work, but there is a danger he slides down the defensive spectrum to corner outfield. He currently has plus speed, but depending on how he fills out that could change. At the plate he isn’t the biggest guy, but he has a quick bat and short swing, and there is definitely the makings of at least average power and a solid hit tool. Nothing immediately jumps off the page for Saltiban, but he sort of looks like a ball player, and nothing stands out as a negative either. It is possible the Phillies got a real steal in the third round by moving quickly on a rising player, there are just still too many moving parts and unknowns to really make that evaluation yet.
2024 Outlook: The early indications are that the Phillies might hold Saltiban back in Extended Spring Training to work on the move to shortstop. His bat looks ready for Clearwater, so they may not be able to hold him back for the whole season.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: N/A
17. TJayy Walton, OF
Age: 19
Acquired: Drafted in the 4th Round of the 2023 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’3” 225lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| PHI (FCL) | 5 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 17.6% | 35.3% | .385 | .529 | .692 |
Role: Average Regular
Risk: High – Walton is a high school corner outfielder who has not yet hit for home run power and has only 5 games of pro ball.
Summary: Walton was the third of three straight interesting high school bats the Phillies took to open the 2023 draft. Like Miller and Saltiban, he had some risks that scared off teams at the time of the draft. Baseball America reported that he missed the showcase circuit in 2022 with an arm injury. Overall, all the pre-draft reports listed his lack of balls in the air as his biggest problem. He is a corner outfielder all the way, though he isn’t going to be a negative in either corner spot. That is going to put pressure on his bat to perform. He has plenty of raw power, Baseball America reported he had the 4th highest max exit velocity at the Draft Combine. He hit multiple balls over 100mph in his brief appearance in the FCL after signing as well. His swing does have a bit of length with a bit of a late load in the swing itself, but he stays connected through his body. I am not a swing expert, but it doesn’t look like a swing overhaul is required, but maybe quieting some of his motion and getting his timing in a place where he catches the ball more out in front to drive it. He is going to need to get to at least average game power to have a future in a corner, and there is certainly room in his body and bat for plus raw power, so he can get there. There likely is not going to be much margin for error at each level, but he could exceed expectations if he is really able to fully tap into his physicality.
2024 Outlook: Walton has a fairly advanced bat for a high schooler, and as a high pick the Phillies are likely to send him to Clearwater to play corner outfield. He probably spends most of the year in Florida.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: N/A
18. Jean Cabrera, RHP
Age: 22
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies on July 2, 2019
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’1” 160lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| CLW (A-) | 19 | 13 | 5-7 | 81.1 | 4.32 | 12.0 | 0.3 | 6.1% | 24.0% |
Role: #4 Starter
Risk: High – Cabrera just finished a year as a 21 year old in the Florida State League where he was more fine than dominant. He has major league ability, but there is a fine line between back end starter and not major leaguer.
Summary: Cabrera signed in July of 2019 as a 17 year old, for a small bonus (as most overage pitchers end up having to do). He didn’t pitch in a game for the Phillies for nearly two years, and was dominant when he took the mound in the DSL in 2021, earning himself the Paul Owens Award. He struggled in 2022 as they aggressively pushed him to the Florida State League, but was much better upon repeating the level. Cabrera is definitely bigger than his list weight, and likely height, as he has filled out since signing. A bit older and stronger, he was able to sit in the higher end of his velocity range this season, 93 to 96, and despite a dip in August, he was able to rebound in September when he got a bit more rest. He has thrown both a 4-seamer and sinker, with the Phillies working the two seamer more over the course of the season. He had better results with the 4-seamer, but the sinker fits the rest of the arsenal slightly better. I expect him to throw both of them in the long term. He gets decent spin on both, and he can get some decent ride on the 4-seamer, but nothing elite, just enough to get misses up in the zone. His slider has some sweeper characteristics, and the Phillies tweaked it some over the season to be more horizontally oriented, trading about 2 inches of drop for 2 inches of sweep. It has been his best pitch, and he does very well to put it in the zone for called strikes as well. He had a harder changeup coming into the season that tunneled off of the 4-seamer, but without great movement characteristics. He now throws it a couple of miles per hour slower, but gets a lot more drop and fade on it. He primarily has used it as a chase pitch, and he sells it well. He used to have a curveball, but the Phillies scrapped it this season. Like many young pitchers, Cabrera is more control than command still, and he can throw the ball for a strike, but he doesn’t always hit all of his spots. He does repeat his delivery pretty well, so I would expect that he improves there with time. Statistically, Cabrera was very unlucky in 2023, with his BABIP of .432 being one of the highest in the minors, despite generating a large amount of ground ball contact. I hesitate to use minor league FIP (and I should note he ran an unusually low HR/FB rate), but his FIP of 3.13 vs his ERA of 4.32 shows sort of the luck gap. He made two dominant appearances in the postseason giving him a total innings output over 93, which might be the most successful part of his season. There is a chance that Cabrera finds another gear and he is more of a #3 than a 4, but it is not to difficult to see the outlines of a #4 that can go be the modern version of an innings eater.
2024 Outlook: Cabrera will open the year with Jersey Shore and has already gone through one round of Rule 5 eligibility. If he excels with the BlueClaws, it would not be surprising if the Phillies push him to Reading at some point in the summer.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: 29
19. Estibenzon Jimenez, RHP
Age: 22
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies on February 22, 2020
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’1” 172lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| CLW (A-) | 21 | 19 | 4-8 | 90.0 | 3.60 | 8.3 | 1.0 | 10.1% | 20.3% |
Role: #4 Starter
Risk: High – Jimenez has not pitched above Clearwater and while his stuff is solid, it isn’t going to carry him on his own. He will need to improve his command to reach his ceiling.
Summary: Estibenzon was a bulk reliever and swing man for the 2022 FCL Phillies, before getting two starts late in the year for the Threshers. In 2023, he transitioned to the rotation full time. He is a short, solidly built pitcher who comes from a high three-quarter that gets him a fairly flat approach angle. He threw his fastball about half the time over the course of the season, but it faded in usage down the stretch. He will mostly sit 91-94, but can get it up to 96 with decent, but not spectacular ride (17”-18” IVB up in the zone) with some run. He sells his mid 80s changeup well, and it comes in with mostly the same horizontal movement as the fastball with about 8 inches more drop. He compliments that with a vertical oriented slider that averaged 82 mph on the season. He gets good whiff rates on the slider (36%) and changeup (32%), with both functioning as change pitches for him. He does get a solid number of whiffs (21%) on the fastball as well. He shows a feel for where he should throw his pitches, but his command can be shaky at times, and he will need to establish both offspeed pitches in the zone against better hitters. He has added a touch more velocity this season, and showed an extra gear in the postseason, and if he can hold that there may be a bit more ceiling. Right now he profiles as a 5-6 inning mid rotation-ish starter.
2024 Outlook: Jimenez should start the year with Jersey Shore, but given he is Rule 5 eligible after the season, a good showing could see him pushed to Reading late in the year.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: UR
20. Raylin Heredia, OF
Age: 20
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies on February 2, 2021
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’0” 174lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| PHI (FCL) | 35 | 164 | 4 | 7 | 10.4% | 25.6% | .326 | .415 | .532 |
| CLW (A-) | 18 | 73 | 1 | 4 | 8.2% | 31.5% | .288 | .342 | .409 |
Role: Average Regular
Risk: Extreme – Heredia was one of the best hitters statistically in the FCL, but he swung and missed at a high enough rate there, and post promotion in Clearwater, to raise some concerns about whether he will make enough contact.
Summary: The buzz on Heredia was decently loud over the summer, and I likely pushed him up the list a bit too hard at the time. He came down to earth quite a bit when he joined the Threshers, as he swung a bit too freely and was susceptible to chasing breaking balls. Heredia looks the part of a good player, he is long and a bit lanky, with good athleticism. His swing is relatively simple and quiet with good balance and bat speed, and he already has a good feel for getting the ball in the air. He has above average raw power, and he should get close to that in games as he is already geared to get to his pull power, and in the FCL he was routinely hitting the ball over 100mph (88.5 mph average and 102.5 90th percentile EV on 41 tracked balls in play in the FCL). He did struggle against opposite side pitching, as lefties were able to get up and in on his hands and he struggled to make consistent contact with them. He showed solid patience and approach at the plate in the FCL, but he was more of a free swinger in the DSL previously, and he had a tendency to lose his approach for an at bat or two. He is a plus runner now, and there is a chance that fades to more above average as he fills out. He has mostly moved off to an outfield corner, and while he needs some work, he should be a solid right field defender. Overall, Heredia looked to be in the middle of a breakout season in 2023, and it sort of lost momentum before the finish line. He could be in line for an actual breakout if he cleans up some of his flaws, and he has the potential to be an everyday player for a good team.
2024 Outlook: Heredia should be one of the starting outfielders for the Threshers, and could spend a significant amount of the season in Florida. He will need to work on handling breaking balls and dealing with fastballs in.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: UR
21. Alex McFarlane, RHP
Age: 22
Acquired: Drafted in the 4th Round of the 2022 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’3” 215lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| CLW (A-) | 16 | 16 | 0-4 | 50.1 | 5.72 | 8.2 | 0.7 | 16.3% | 29.6% |
Role: Frustrating Mid Rotation Starter / Late Inning Reliever
Risk: Extreme – McFarlane flashed big velocity and a monster slider early in the season, but his velocity took a big drop and he eventually had Tommy John surgery, leaving his future role and success much more in doubt.
Summary: McFarlane worked out of the bullpen for most of his junior year in 2022, and after signing, the Phillies started moving him to the rotation, a role that continued into early 2023. The reports out of Spring Training were very good, and he came out firing when the FSL season started. He averaged 98 mph on his fastball in his first start, throwing 4 of them over 100mph and peaking at 100.5. He averaged higher than 96 mph in every start until mid May, when his average velocity on each start kept decreasing sharply. The Phillies eventually shut him down in late June. He came back briefly in August before then being shut down again and eventually having Tommy John surgery. Not surprisingly, given he had been a reliever, McFarlane did have a tendency to lose velocity deeper into starts, and it is a real concern if the Phillies try to have him start post recovery. As for the pitch itself, McFarlane throws a high spin (averaged over 2600 RPM on the season) sinker that has a large amount of drop and armside run. He throws a high spin slider (RPM>2800) with good verticality that sits in the mid 80s. He then will infrequently throw a high 80s changeup that has a good amount of drop off the fastball with similar run. He generally struggled to throw strikes and, despite the velocity, the movement on his fastball made it a good, but not elite pitch. His changeup generally had poor results, and he struggled to throw it in the zone. The special pitch is his slider, which he posted a 56% whiff rate on for the year, and a 42.4% CSW% thanks to also landing it in the zone for called strikes at a high rate (for reference Orion Kerkering’s slider with Clearwater was at 52% whiff rate and 52.9% CSW% due to his elite ability to throw it in the zone). Given the injury, the control problems, and the lack of a usable changeup, McFarlane looks like a reliever. The Phillies have not always been quick to make those sort of changes, so they could run him back out as a starter. If he can throw the fastball and slider in the zone enough to not walk the world, he potentially could be a high leverage, late inning arm. Due to the injury, he will miss all of the 2024 season and will likely be limited in 2025 as well.
2024 Outlook: McFarlane had Tommy John in the fall and will miss all of the 2024 season. There is a possibility we hear about him throwing bullpens next fall, but he won’t appear in a game until spring 2025.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: 9
22. George Klassen, RHP
Age: 22
Acquired: Drafted in the 6th Round of the 2023 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’2” 170lbs|
2023 Stats: Did not pitch professionally in 2023
Role: Late inning reliever
Risk: Extreme – Klassen walked 47 and struck out 49 in 56.2 innings at Minnesota as a starting pitcher. He did not pitch after signing, and while it is presumed he will move to the bullpen, that move has not been made official.
Summary: The Phillies in recent drafts have not been afraid of pitchers with poor control and poor results, but also big stuff. Klassen fits the same mold as Griff McGarry and Alex McFarlane in the past two drafts, but with even less track record of success. Klassen is short and slight, but he was reportedly high 90s, up to 101 with Minnesota in spring 2023. He throws a slider as well, and Baseball America reported that he also threw a cutter at the Draft Combine. Klassen slid all the way to the 6th round because his control was poor at best. His lack of control has him publicly earmarked to move to a bullpen role, where maybe some simplicity and lack of needing to turn a lineup over will lead to better control. The Phillies have not always followed conventional wisdom, so there is a chance he starts or long relieves, especially if they are reworking his delivery or arsenal.
2024 Outlook: Given he did not pitch in a game after the draft, it would be a surprise if he started anywhere other than Clearwater or the complex. Unless he moves to the bullpen and takes off, it is probably going to be slow moving for a while.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: N/A
The Phillies system is not particularly deep or great. This part of the list would ideally be 5-10 spots deeper, but it isn’t. What it is, is some upper minors players right on the cusp of contributing, but not good enough to knock down the door. The rest is sort of the reality of young risky players in development, as some of the higher upside players from last year’s list slip down due to disappointing 2023 seasons, and a new crop of interesting young players joins them.
23. Emaarion Boyd, OF
Age: 20
Acquired: Drafted in the 11th Round of the 2022 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 5’11” 177lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| CLW (A-) | 91 | 403 | 1 | 56 | 8.7% | 14.9% | .262 | .360 | .324 |
Role: Second Division Regular/4th Outfielder
Risk: Extreme – Boyd was one of the lightest hitting batters in the Phillies org in 2023. The Phillies were also already starting to shuffle him off to an outfield corner, despite his speed, and his bat will not play in a corner.
Summary: There isn’t a lot of deception or surprise to Emaarion Boyd as a baseball player. He is skinny and thin framed, and he posted the second lowest average exit velocity among measured hitters in the Phillies system. He had a 90th exit velocity of 98.6mph, and his average exit velocity increased over the season, so there is a chance he does have a bit more impact coming. However, he doesn’t have the body where he is going to add a lot of usable strength. He got the ball off the ground more than Justin Crawford, but his ground ball rate of 60% was among minor league leaders, and he only had 14 extra base hits. At the plate, he isn’t a hacker (47.6% swing rate) and he rarely missed fastballs, but he consequently ran up high whiff rates on changeups and sliders. His gaudy on base percentage was further bolstered by being hit by 22 pitches. Boyd has plus plus speed, but he doesn’t fully use it on the bases or in the field. He stole 56 bases, but he was caught 18 times. He mostly played left field for Clearwater while sharing a team with Crawford, and there are some worries that he won’t be a center fielder defensively due to his route running. Overall, there isn’t enough in his bat to play left field unless he is going to be Juan Pierre offensively. If he can play center and weaponize his speed on the bases, there is a starting outcome potential for him.
2024 Outlook: Boyd likely moves to Jersey Shore where he likely still won’t get center field reps, but he might be able to show the route running acumen that indicates he would be able to play there if not sharing a roster with a better center field prospect. The biggest watch point will be whether he added any strength this offseason and if it translates to more impact at the plate.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: 13
24. Simon Muzziotti, OF
Age: 25
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies on July 5, 2016
B/T: L/L
H/W: 6’0”175lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| LHV (AAA) | 124 | 524 | 7 | 26 | 8.6% | 15.5% | .296 | .358 | .404 |
Role: 5th Outfielder
Risk: Low – Muzziotti has had success at AAA, but the 2023 AAA run environment was historically high. He does not have enough power and impact to play the outfield corner position he has been playing more often.
Summary: Muzziotti had missed large portions of the last three seasons due to the pandemic, visa issues, and then injuries, making his 124 games played (plus 44 more in Venezuelan Winter Leagues at the time of this writing) not just a new high since 2019, but also a career high. He had been making incremental growth year over year, despite the limited playing time, hitting the ball harder and making better swing decisions. That all looked to be coming together to start 2023 as he hit .354/.408/.479 through the end of June. He then would go on to hit .227/.299/.315 the rest of the season. He hit the ball just as hard over the second half and slightly more in the air, but not dramatically so, so much of it was the BABIP gods leaning the wrong way. Overall, Muzziotti makes ok contact. His average exit velocity was 86.1 mph which was towards the bottom of the org, but with a 90th percentile outcome of 102.8mph which was much more mid pack (for example Scott Kingery averaged 87.7 mph with a 90th percentile of 102.8 mph), so there is some more power than he always shows. He doesn’t tap heavily into that power and the swing has its share of ground balls, but is mostly gap to gap line drives. He swings often, and he doesn’t put up minuscule miss rates, but not egregious ones either. It is a fine second division regular hitting profile for a center fielder. The Phillies have telegraphed that they don’t really believe in his glove in center. Given that they have prioritized Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache there and even moved Brandon Marsh to a corner, they might be harsh judges. Muzziotti’s bat does not play as a regular in left field, and he doesn’t have the pop or platoon outcomes that a good 4th outfielder might. That sort of leaves him as a major league ready last man on a bench who can play all three outfield positions and possibly give you a professional at bat.
2024 Outlook: Muzziotti does not have a pathway to the majors right now for the Phillies and if he makes his way to the season without being traded, he will go to AAA where he will wait for a trade or opportunity.
ETA: 2022
Previous Rank: 8
25. Enrique Segura, RHP
Age: 19
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies on January 15, 2022
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’3” 175lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| PHI (FCL) | 11 | 10 | 1-3 | 36.2 | 6.87 | 7.9 | 1.0 | 17.1% | 19.4% |
Role: #3/#4 Starter
Risk: Extreme – It was a rough season in the Florida Complex league for Segura, especially when it came to his control. He did pitch the full season at age 18, so there is time for him to get back on the right path.
Summary: Segura came into the season with a bunch of hype, especially after he touched 97 in the spring. His actual season fell sort of flat as he struggled with his control and rarely worked deep into games. Unfortunately, he is the one complex level pitcher I do not have data or video on (he somehow made all 11 appearances on the road), but the second hand reports are that the stuff was the same as it had been. Segura’s fastball will mostly sit low 90s, up to 95 and above. He will throw a changeup and a pair of breaking balls. His slider should be a good pitch for him in the long term. He gets some delivery comps to Aaron Nola, and while the stuff is not quite the same, there are some parallels in how the arsenal might play. This season was a step back for Segura, but it was also because of the challenge they set out for him.
2024 Outlook: Segura is only 19 years old and logged 36.2 innings in games last season. It would not be surprising if he repeated the Extended Spring Training to FCL path again. He does have good enough stuff that some steps forward could force a move to the Florida State League at some point.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: 15
26. Avery Owusu-Asiedu, OF
Age: 20
Acquired: Drafted in the 9th Round of the 2023 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’4” 230lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| PHI (FCL) | 13 | 55 | 1 | 2 | 12.7% | 18.2% | .217 | .327 | .348 |
Role: Average Regular
Risk: Extreme – Owusu-Asiedu went to a non-power conference school where he struck out at a high rate, and then he struggled to hit for power in his small sample size of pro ball and summer wood bat league this year. He also is very young for a college junior and has enormous tools.
Summary: Under Brian Barber, the Phillies in the draft have been fine taking risks and have rarely used late day 2 picks to just save slot money. Owusu-Asiedu is a real embodiment of that sort of philosophy. The Canadian outfielder spent 3 years at Southern Illinois-Edwardsville in the Ohio Valley Conference. He performed well as a freshman and sophomore, but after a big summer season in the Appalachian League, he had a monster junior year hitting .293/.396/.590 with 15 home runs and 24 stolen bases in 53 games. He had a decent amount of strikeouts in college, but it was not terrible in his brief appearance in pro ball. This all comes in a lanky 6’4” package with at least plus and likely plus plus speed, when underway, with plus raw power. He played center field in college and with the Phillies, and assuming he doesn’t really thicken up, he should stick there long term. Owusu-Asiedu is also only 20 so he is surprisingly young for a player with 3 years of college experience. He is far from a sure thing to become a major league contributor, but there are very few players in the system that have his upside if the pieces all come together.
2024 Outlook: Given his lack of high level experience and the Phillies penchant for grouping their draft classes, Owusu-Asiedu likely starts the season in Clearwater. The Phillies have not been afraid to promote players who excel, but it may be a bit of a learning curve here.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: N/A
27. Nikau Pouaka-Grego
Age: 19
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies on January 17, 2022
B/T: L/R
H/W: 5’9” 175lbs
2023 Stats: Nikau Pouaka-Grego did not play in a game in 2023
Role: Everyday Infielder, Probably at Second
Risk: Extreme – Pouaka-Grego ended up missing all year to a knee injury and is not playing in the ABL either. All of the questions about his future power potential remain.
Summary: Since he missed the full season, there are no games to evaluate Pouaka-Grego on this year. He has reportedly progressed in his rehab and was on the field doing drills by the fall. Pouaka-Grego has a great feel for bat to ball and surprising power. His final defensive position is still a question, with second base the most likely, but not a certainty. He should be healthy to open the 2024 season, and will only be 19.
2024 Outlook: Pouaka-Grego will join a crowded mix looking to open on the 2024 Threshers, but he should spend much of his season there.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: 16
28. Kehden Hettiger, C
Age: 19
Acquired: Drafted in the 11th Round of the 2023 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: S/R
H/W: 6’2” 205lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| PHI (FCL) | 10 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 22.2% | 25.9% | .190 | .370 | .238 |
Role: Average Regular
Risk: Extreme – Hettiger is a high school catcher, one of the riskiest archetypes, and has some swing and hit tool concerns. He looks like he should stick at the position and has enough power to have offensive upside.
Summary: Hettiger is a solidly built switch hitting high school catcher from California. He has some length to his swing, but good bat speed from both sides of the plate. His strength will lead to solid power, and he has a good approach at the plate. Behind the plate, he didn’t look terrible, but he is already pretty large, and receiving and blocking are things he has to work on. He has a plus arm, popping sub 2.00 pop times in the FCL. Hettiger was on the older side for a high schooler and his body is mature already. The Phillies gave him a 5th round level bonus, and he has the talent of a mid Day 2 pick. He could be an everyday catcher, but he is going to need to hit at every level and get his defense at least to average, and with framing being deemphasized by automated strike zones his arm will be an asset.
2024 Outlook: The Phillies have a decent number of catchers between Extended Spring Training and Florida Complex League. Hettiger may end up splitting time between both levels as the Phillies shuffle players up and down between the two levels.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: N/A
29. McKinley Moore, RHP
Age: 25
Acquired: Traded by the White Sox to the Phillies for Adam Haseley on March 29, 2022
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’6” 225lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| CLW (A-) | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 1.0 | 0.00 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 75.0% |
| REA (AA) | 7 | 0 | 0-0 | 6.1 | 1.42 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 17.2% | 41.4% |
| LHV (AAA) | 12 | 0 | 2-1 | 13.0 | 1.38 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 29.3% | 37.9% |
| PHI (MLB) | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 3.1 | 18.90 | 13.5 | 2.7 | 23.8% | 9.5% |
Role: Middle Reliever
Risk: Medium – Moore had a poor cameo in the majors, missed time multiple times due to injuries, and had poor control in the minors. However, he has major league stuff and is on the doorstep of the majors.
Summary: The Phillies opted to not protect Moore in the 2022 Rule 5 draft, and then he had a bit of a breakout camp. The Phillies added him to the 40 man roster early in the year, and he made 3 appearances in the majors in April. Moore is a big righty, who releases from a higher slot and only gets average extension, which doesn’t help an only ok fastball shape. However, he averages about 97 on the pitch and has gotten up to 100 in the past. He throws a high 80s sweeper that is in the same velocity band as Orion Kerkering but without the horizontal break that Kerkering does (about 5 inches less). Moore’s best pitch has been a low 90s split changeup that he was able to get above average whiff rates on in the minors. All of Moore’s pitches get a good number of swings and misses, but none are plus plus weapons to lean on. Moore will need to throw more strikes, a thing he has struggled to do throughout his career.
2024 Outlook: Moore will go to Spring Training with an outside shot to make the major league roster, but will likely head to AAA to be up and down relief depth.
ETA: 2023
Previous Rank: UR
30. Andrew Baker, RHP
Age: 24
Acquired: Drafted in the 11th Round of the 2021 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’1” 190lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| REA (AA) | 41 | 0 | 0-6 | 41.0 | 8.12 | 7.7 | 1.3 | 22.9% | 30.5% |
| SCO (AFL) | 7 | 0 | 0-0 | 7.0 | 0.00 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 20.7% | 44.8% |
Role: High Leverage Reliever
Risk: High – Baker will flash the ability to throw strikes for a few games or weeks, but has consistently reverted to walking everyone. His stuff is good enough to get high leverage outs, if he can ever locate it.
Summary: At the end of 2022, Baker looked to be putting the pieces together to throw strikes more consistently. He struggled to open 2023, eventually being sent back down to Florida to rework some things. That helped for a period of time, but issues once again popped in the last few weeks of the season. He was a mixed bag in the Arizona Fall League where he walked 6 in 7 innings, but he also only allowed 2 hits and struck out 13. Baker’s fastball will sit 96 to 99 and can touch 100-101, and he will show good life on it. His primary pitch for a while has been a power curveball in the mid 80s that he can use for chases. He has worked on a cutter/slider that has good potential and reportedly also has toyed with a splitter. The fastball and curveball are good enough on their own to get major league batters out, but the added weapons should help him keep batters off balance when his command isn’t there. The first step will be just getting the control to a place where he is consistently throwing strikes. If it only partially improves, Baker might just be an infuriating up and down reliever, but there is a chance he is a late inning weapon if he can put it all together.
2024 Outlook: Baker may return to Reading to open the season, due to the AAA bullpen being full of the 40 man relievers. At some point, he likely forces his way there. He is Rule 5 eligible after the season, so if he puts it all together there is no downside to the Phillies calling him up late in the year.
ETA: 2025
Previous Rank: 10
31. Michael Mercado, RHP
Age: 24
Acquired: Traded by the Rays to the Phillies for Adam Leverett on November 6, 2023
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’4” 205lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| MON (AA) | 24 | 0 | 2-2 | 22.1 | 4.43 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 14.6% | 40.6% |
| DUR (AAA) | 28 | 2 | 2-1 | 39.2 | 4.99 | 7.9 | 2.0 | 12.2% | 32.6% |
Role: Middle Reliever
Risk: Medium – Mercado’s ERA wasn’t great in the high octane AAA environment, but he struck out 12.7 per 9 with a bad, but not disastrous, walk rate at the highest level of the minors.
Summary: Mercado was a projectable high school starting pitcher when the Rays gave him a large overslot bonus in the 2017 draft. Injuries and the pandemic limited his time on the mound, and in 2023 the Rays moved him full time to the bullpen. His stuff ticked up, but the Rays didn’t have room on their 40 man roster to protect him from minor league free agency, so they traded him to the Phillies. By the end of the season, Mercado was throwing a fastball, cutter, and curveball, having scrapped his changeup from when he was a starter. His fastball averaged 96 mph and peaked around 98, and has solid but not outlier movement. His cutter is in the high 80s, and he has a bigger power curveball in the low 80s. His curveball is his big swing and miss pitch, especially vs RHBs, but it is still effective against lefties. Overall he showed even platoon splits, which will serve him well in middle relief, especially since he commonly went multiple innings towards the end of the year. Overall, he struggles enough with control and his fastball is hittable enough that he will likely not work in high leverage, but he could carve out a Connor Brogdon-esque 6th-7th inning role.
2024 Outlook: Mercado will likely get an outside chance to make the Phillies out of Spring Training, but it is more likely he goes to Lehigh Valley and is part of the Phillies 40 man reliever depth. He could appear with the major league club in an up and down role.
ETA: 2024
Previous Rank: N/A
32. Matt Kroon 3B/OF
Age: 27
Acquired: Drafted in the 18th Round of the 2018 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’0” 195lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| JS (A+) | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 16.7% | 25.0% | .200 | .333 | .400 |
| REA (AA) | 79 | 344 | 8 | 22 | 9.6% | 19.2% | .319 | .387 | .493 |
| LHV (AAA) | 15 | 76 | 3 | 4 | 14.5% | 19.7% | .381 | .467 | .698 |
| SCO (AFL) | 18 | 73 | 1 | 5 | 9.6% | 28.0% | .262 | .356 | .344 |
Role: Multi Positional RH Bench Bat
Risk: High – Kroon is now 27 and has just 15 games in AAA. He has positional flexibility and some untapped power, but is still very unproven for a player of his age.
Summary: Kroon had the start of a breakout in 2021, and then he tore his ACL in the second game of the 2022 season. He came back healthy to start the 2023 season, but struggled (.255/.323/.400) to start with Reading, but was on fire the rest of the season (.339/.413/.548), though he missed two weeks in the middle of August due to injury. Defensively, he played primarily center field and third base, but mixed in both outfield corners. Third was a bit rough at times, and he primarily should play the corner outfield, but he has good enough speed he can play center in a pinch. At the plate, Kroon hits hard line drives all over the field and could actually stand to elevate it more, as he both did not take advantage of Reading’s home park and posted a relatively low HR/FB rate given how hard he hits the ball. I don’t have his full season batted ball data, but between AAA and Arizona Fall League Kroon had 45 balls in play with an average exit velocity of 88.7 mph and a 90th percentile exit velocity of 106.7, with the 90th percentile exit velocity 3rd among Phillies minor leaguers in 2023 (only Clearwater and Lehigh Valley were measured). His median launch angle of 9 degrees shows part of the problem with getting to that power. His approach and contact abilities are solid, but not good enough to be a driving skill. It is a narrow edge between major leaguer and AAAA player, and Kroon is not as good as Matt Vierling, but has more thump in his bat than Dalton Guthrie, though less use of his power than Weston Wilson.
2024 Outlook: Kroon will go to AAA where he will be competing with the back of the 40 man roster to be an injury or performance call up.
ETA: 2024
Previous Rank: 50
Not every prospect in the minors is destined to be an impact contributor to a major league team. It is really easy to see these role players, whether they are bench hitters, middle relievers, or back end starters, as those with higher ceilings that did not meet those heights. Not every player in this group falls into another group, but many do, and that is players that lack that high ceiling but clearly have the abilities to be a major league contributor. They just have some flaws or distance to achieving that role that makes them just too risky to trust them to reach it. There are also within this group some players with really solid ceilings, but due to injury or poor performance they are just so far away from that goal that they really need a strong 2024 season to just get back on the path, let alone get further down the road.
33. Andrew Walling, LHP
Age: 24
Acquired: Signed as an undrafted free agent by the Phillies in 2022
B/T: L/L
H/W: 6’2” 220lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| CLW (A-) | 26 | 0 | 6-1 | 39.0 | 3.23 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 15.3% | 27.1% |
| JS (A+) | 14 | 0 | 2-2 | 16.2 | 3.24 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 4.9% | 44.3% |
Role: Middle Reliever
Risk: High – Walling only made it to Jersey Shore in 2023, and while his control was much better there, he still walked 6 per 9 in Clearwater. His stuff is major league caliber, but it isn’t overwhelming enough where results at each level won’t matter.
Summary: The Phillies signed Walling as an undrafted free agent out of the Draft League in 2022. He had barely pitched in college at all due to injuries, ineffectiveness, and the COVID shutdown. He showed a live arm last year, with his fastball sitting about 94 and mixing in a hard slider/cutter. In 2023, his fastball ticked up slightly, and he mostly sits 93 to 95 and can get up to 97. It is a fairly vertical fastball, but it doesn’t have elite levels of ride, and isn’t a big bat misser (22% whiff rate in Clearwater). The big change for Walling came in his offspeed stuff. His slider fully became a cutter that will sit mostly in the high 80s. He gets a decent number of swings and misses on it, but even more than his fastball, it is the pitch he throws for strikes. His bat misser is a low to mid 80s sweeper, a new pitch to his arsenal, replacing a big loopy curve he would throw rarely. The sweeper has about 10 inches more horizontal break than his cutter and just a little more drop, and like the cutter plays off his fastball up in the zone well. Over the course of the season Walling became more comfortable throwing the sweeper, with it surpassing the cutter in usage. Overall, Walling has the stuff to pitch out of a major league bullpen, though probably not late innings. He was absolutely devastating to lefties (.083/.243/.117) and given his arsenal, he is likely to always have some platoon proclivities, but righties didn’t completely crush him. His control was shaky with Clearwater, but not with Jersey Shore, and he will need to continue that trend to progress through the system.
2024 Outlook: Walling pitched a solid 16.2 innings with Jersey Shore, and probably will compete for a spot in Reading to open the year. If not, he should get there pretty quickly if he carries over his 2023 success.
ETA: 2025|
Previous Rank: UR
34. Hendry Mendez, OF
Age: 20
Acquired: Traded by the Brewers to the Philadelphia Phillies with Robert Moore for Oliver Dunn on November 14, 2023
B/T: L/L
H/W: 6’2” 175lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| MIL (AZL) | 4 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | .600 | .600 | .800 |
| WIS (A+) | 62 | 257 | 3 | 0 | 8.9% | 15.6% | .236 | .307 | .326 |
| SUR (AFL) | 11 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 14.0% | 23.3% | .216 | .326 | .297 |
Role: Second Division Regular
Risk: Extreme – Mendez has moved to an outfield corner which puts pressure on his bat. His stats do not indicate his bat will be up to the task, which leaves his potential more dependent on past projection and his physicality.
Summary: The Brewers signed Mendez for $800,000 when the 2021 signing period opened, and he had a great debut in both the DSL and Arizona Complex League. However, in both 2022 and 2023 his swing started to show deficiencies in quality of contact generated. Mendez has the physicality to hit for power, but his swing leads to an enormous amount of ground ball contact (over 60% the last two seasons). Historically, Mendez has had a solid approach and low swing and miss, so if the Phillies can rework his swing there is a chance he can tap into those changes. At one point, Mendez was thought to be a center fielder, but he is now firmly a corner outfielder and will likely see time in both corners going forward.
2024 Outlook: Mendez played all of last season at high A in the Brewers system, but given his struggles, he likely goes to Jersey Shore to open the 2024 season. The big thing will be if the Phillies make swing changes and if they are able to get Mendez to square up the ball more consistently.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: N/A
35. Tommy McCollum, RHP
Age: 24
Acquired: Signed as an undrafted free agent by the Phillies in 2021
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’5” 260lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| JS (A+) | 34 | 0 | 0-0 | 35.0 | 2.31 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 16.1% | 39.2% |
| REA (AA) | 10 | 0 | 1-0 | 9.1 | 3.86 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 21.4% | 26.2% |
Role: Middle Reliever
Risk: High – McCollum struggled with his control with Jersey Shore and more so with Reading. His splitter gives him a major league pitch, but his fastball is not good enough to give him success without better command.
Summary: McCollum had a breakout 2022 cut short by an injury, and his 2023 season was more up and down. McCollum is a big righty who has struggled to repeat his delivery and command his pitches. McCollum has a fairly high release point and good extension which makes his pitches difficult to pick up. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90s, bumping up to 94-96 when he is at his best. His best pitch is a high 80s splitter that is his primary bat misser thanks to good deception and drop. He has been working on adding a cutter or slider that gives him a glove side weapon. Unsurprisingly for a splitter heavy pitcher in the low minors, McCollum dominated left handed batters who hit just .053/.260/.053 off of him. Given the velocity and splitter, it is hard to not see some shades of Hector Neris in McCollum, but he will need to actually consistently harness his splitter to hit that sort of ceiling.
2024 Outlook: McCollum should return to Reading where he can put himself on the Rule 5 protect radar for after the season and into the Phillies mix of right handed relief depth.|
ETA: 2025
Previous Rank: 32
36. Micah Ottenbreit, RHP
Age: 20
Acquired: Drafted in the 4th Round of the 2021 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’4” 190lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| PHI (FCL) | 2 | 2 | 0-0 | 2.1 | 11.57 | 11.6 | 0.0 | 15.4% | 0.0% |
Role: #3/#4 Starter
Risk: Extreme – Ottenbreit was drafted in 2021 and has pitched 14 innings since then and had major surgery in the middle of it. It would be easy to knock his ceiling down or say he is probably a reliever, but we really don’t know, so I am holding him at the previous projection and saying his risk is probably higher than any player in the system.
Summary: Ottenbreit was a raw pitcher when the Phillies took him out of a Michigan high school in 2021. He then pitched in two games in 2022 before having to have Tommy John surgery, and then two games in 2023 before having a setback. According to Steve Potter, he was throwing bullpens late in the fall, so he appears to be healthy heading into the offseason. Ottenbreit had projection coming out of the draft, and it is unsurprising that he had some velocity in his brief appearance in 2023, sitting 92-94 in his second appearance. The pitch has a good spin rate, but I am going to hold off on movement judgment until I have more than a few pitches to work off of. He has a big, high spin (2800-2900 RPM this season) curveball in the low 80s that will likely be his primary weapon. He also throws a changeup. He previously struggled with control based on delivery inconsistencies, and we will need to wait until he is more removed from surgery before making any big judgments. After essentially missing the last two seasons, the big thing for Ottenbreit will be staying healthy and pitching innings. He still has the upside to be one of the better pitching prospects in the organization if he can be healthy and get back on track.
2024 Outlook: Ottenbreit was supposedly healthy by the end of the year, but given his lack of time on the mound the last two years, it is likely his innings will be capped in 2024. He should return to Clearwater where the goal will be to throw healthy innings.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: 27
37. Mavis Graves, LHP
Age: 20
Acquired: Drafted in the 6th Round of the 2022 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: L/L
H/W: 6’6” 205lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| PHI (FCL) | 11 | 11 | 0-4 | 34.0 | 7.68 | 9.3 | 1.1 | 17.8% | 27.6% |
Role: #4 Starter
Risk: Extreme – Graves has a starter’s arsenal, but does not have the control or consistency to be anywhere near that role. He is young enough that he has time to grow into it, but he is a long way off.
Summary: Graves was a project when the Phillies took him in the 7th round of the 2022 draft, and he is still very much a project now. He is long and lanky and struggles to repeat his delivery. His velocity has increased a little bit, sitting 88 to 93, and touching up to 94. It is a high spin pitch (2400-2500 RPM), but has sinker movement as opposed to bat missing rise. He has a pair of breaking balls in a similar velocity range. His slider is 79-81 mph and more vertically oriented, sitting about 2700-2800 RPM. It blends into his sweeping curveball that is more in the 77-79 mph range and will peak closer to 2900 RPM. He also has a changeup in the 82-84 mph range that he kills the spin on well. He does miss some bats, but his command and control lag due to his size, and he struggles repeating his delivery. He has room to add strength and velocity, and the breaking balls show the promise to be bat-missing weapons if he can find consistency. It was always going to take time for him, and his 2023 season doesn’t change that.
2024 Outlook: Unless he has a great spring, Graves might start the season in Extended Spring Training, and unless he regresses he probably sees the bulk of his time with the Threshers.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: 30
38. Jaydenn Estanista, RHP
Age: 22
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies on November 8, 2019
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’3” 180lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| PHI (FCL) | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 1.0 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| CLW (A-) | 13 | 1 | 2-0 | 24.1 | 8.51 | 9.8 | 1.1 | 21.8% | 22.6% |
Role: Probably a Reliever
Risk: Extreme – After his age 21 season there are still a lot of questions about what Estanista is as a pitcher and even what pitches he throws. He is still largely a lump of clay to be formed into something.
Summary: Estanista looked like a breakout candidate coming into 2023. He is a lanky and projectable right handed pitcher, and he is still relatively new to pitching. However, his 2023 season was a disaster. He struggled to throw strikes, and all of his pitches were inconsistent pitch to pitch. He also missed 2 months due to injury and was not part of the Threshers end of season push even once he was back. The selling point on Estanista is the four seam fastball. This year there were inconsistencies, but when on, it sits 93 to 96 with great ride and it should miss bats in the long term when he can throw it more consistently up in the zone. He had a slider move through various shapes in the cutter/gyro range and velocity bands in the 80s. Late in the season he began sparingly throwing a mid 70s huge curveball. He struggled to throw it for strikes, but the sample size was tiny. Before his injury he tinkered with a splitter. His chances of being a starting pitcher are rapidly closing, and he will actually need to find a usable secondary pitch and a bunch of fastball command to make it in the bullpen. He still is raw and has good upside, he has just moved from a breakout prospect to a reclamation project to try and get on the right path.
2024 Outlook: Estanista will return to Clearwater where he might be in a multi inning relief role to get work and figure out which direction things will go.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: 14
The bottom of the list is always populated with a group of players I feel compelled to write about, either because I couldn’t push them off the list because they still could be something, or because I find them compelling enough to think that they have the future value to be something. That means we have players like Ethan Wilson, Gunner Mayer, Dominic Pipkin, and Kendall Simmons, who have been around for a while, next to some Dominican Summer League players who may come stateside and have interesting attributes and tools that make them worth watching going into the future.
39. Caleb Ricketts, C
Age: 23
Acquired: Drafted in the 7th Round of the 2022 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: L/R
H/W: 6’3” 225lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| CLW (A-) | 23 | 100 | 1 | 2 | 3.0% | 18.6% | .368 | .390 | .547 |
| JS (A+) | 44 | 188 | 3 | 4 | 8.0% | 18.6% | .218 | .287 | .300 |
| SCO (AFL) | 14 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 7.5% | 22.6% | .256 | .359 | .302 |
Role: Bat First, 3rd Catcher
Risk: High – Ricketts is not a good defensive catcher, so his bat will need to carry him to a major league role, and he was poor offensively in high-A.
Summary: Ricketts looked to be on a breakout path to begin the 2023 season. He hit the ball on a line all over the field for the Threshers. He struggled to impact the ball after being promoted to Jersey Shore, and injuries and setbacks caused him to miss almost all of June and July. He was better after returning, but was still a below average hitter the rest of the way, with an ok showing in the Arizona Fall League. Ricketts has a relatively quiet and simple swing that should generate a good amount of line drives and fringe average power. He has a relatively aggressive approach at the plate, but not a large amount of swing and miss. Defensively, Ricketts can stick behind the plate, but likely will be below average defensively, and teams ran often on him. He has played some first base, but that has been relatively out of minor league team need and not as a future position. If Ricketts can be a solid hitter, he has a chance to be up and down on a 40 man roster.
2024 Outlook: Ricketts barely got on the field for Jersey Shore and the Phillies brought in a bunch of AA catching depth in the minor league Rule 5 draft. That points to Ricketts starting as a BlueClaw again.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: 33
40. Felix Reyes, 1B/OF
Age: 23
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies on February 22, 2020
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’3” 195lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| CLW (A-) | 67 | 277 | 9 | 6 | 6.1% | 10.8% | .264 | .310 | .416 |
| JS (A+) | 10 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 2.6% | 10.3% | .257 | .282 | .343 |
Role: Bench Bat of Position Unknown
Risk: High – Reyes is an older player (entering his age 23 season) who has 10 games above low-A for his career. He does not have a position currently, and his offensive upside is driven by tools more than performance.
Summary: Felix Reyes had a nondescript to poor first two seasons in pro-ball before having a breakout at age 22 in low-A. He is a large bodied right handed hitter who has been known for his raw power around the complex, but not for actual performance. He has long been an aggressive hitter at the plate, with poor walk and strikeout numbers, but in 2023 his contact numbers took a large jump forward. He is still a free swinger, swinging at over 56% of the pitches he saw with Clearwater, but his whiff rate was just under 18%. Making more contact allowed the power to show up more, though his quality of contact struggled at times. Where he really pops is the raw power. His average exit velocity was middle of the pack in the Phillies system, but among those with Statcast data, his 90th percentile exit velocity (107.2 mph) was second only to Gabriel Rincones Jr. and his max numbers are consistent with Rincones and Baron Radcliff at the same level. He also showed pronounced left/right splits at the plate that will be worth monitoring. Defensively, there are just as many questions. Originally he was a right fielder/first baseman, but he is not particularly fleet of foot and they moved him more to the infield dirt in 2023. He played some shortstop in Extended Spring just to see how he handled things, but mostly the result has been him moving more to third base to go along with first. He has a strong arm, and wasn’t a disaster at the hot corner. It remains to be seen if he can stick there, but if he does it takes some pressure off the bat. Overall, there are a lot of green flags and red flags, and nothing much in between.
2024 Outlook: Reyes got a taste of Jersey Shore at the end of the 2023 season and should return there in 2024. The big thing to watch will be the swing rate and quality of contact.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: UR
41. Ethan Wilson, OF
Age: 24
Acquired: Drafted in the 2nd Round of the 2021 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: L/L
H/W: 6’0” 210lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| REA (AA) | 114 | 463 | 17 | 12 | 6.7% | 23.8% | .250 | .307 | .443 |
Role: Platoon Outfielder
Risk: High – Wilson does not destroy opposite side pitching and has limited defensive utility. He will need to find more consistent power output in order to make himself attractive in any sort of MLB role.
Summary: On paper it was a much better 2023 season for Wilson than his 2022, his power was way up and he cut his strikeout rate a bit. However, he also moved from one of the least hitter friendly parks to one of the most friendly parks in the minors (though I should note he did not have dramatic home/road splits in 2023). The power output is certainly a positive outcome, however he hit 9 of his 17 home runs in May and June, and his growth was mostly in a spike in HR/FB rate and not in overall batted ball profile. His approach at the plate and swing and miss continued to be poor, and outside of August (12 walks to 21 strikeouts), his numbers were very poor (19 walks to 89 strikeouts). Additionally, he struggled greatly vs LHPs, and the Phillies were already working him in a heavy platoon in AA. He is still an only ok defender in the outfield and should really only play left field. Overall, it was a year where Wilson needed to show that 2022 was an aberration and instead it solidified much of it as the new normal. He is closer to providing some sort of major league utility, likely an up and down platoon bat, but he remains far away from his draft promise.
2024 Outlook: The IronPigs outfield already looks full, so it would not be surprising if Wilson returns to Reading to try and force his way into the Phillies plans.
ETA: 2025
Previous Rank: 23
42. Dominic Pipkin, RHP
Age: 24
Acquired: Drafted in the 9th Round of the 2018 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’4” 160lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| PHI (FCL) | 2 | 1 | 0-0 | 1.2 | 27.00 | 21.6 | 0.0 | 9.1% | 27.3% |
| CLW (A-) | 3 | 0 | 2-0 | 3.2 | 4.91 | 7.4 | 0.0 | 13.3% | 26.7% |
| REA (AA) | 18 | 0 | 2-2 | 19.2 | 3.66 | 7.3 | 1.4 | 8.8% | 28.7% |
| SCO (AFL) | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 2.2 | 0.00 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 10.0% | 20.0% |
Role: Middle Reliever
Risk: High – Pipkin’s second move to the bullpen was much better than his first, and included a jump in his velocity and overall stuff. His results have lagged his velocity, and he now will need to have actual success on the mound.
Summary: For the second year in a row, the Phillies moved Pipkin to the bullpen. In 2022, he eventually moved back to a bulk innings starting role. In 2023, he got off to a late start and then in his last appearance with Clearwater his fastball jumped from sitting 92 to 94, to sitting 96 to 98. He was able to hold that velocity through the end of the season, touching up to 99 and 100 while with Reading. He previously threw a slider, a curveball, and a changeup. The curveball has been scrapped and the changeup and slider are both in the 87 to 91 range. With the increased velocity, he did miss more bats, but his fastball (he has both a 2 and 4 seamer) does not have great shape, with sort of low to middling spin rates and not a ton of positive movement. He throws a good number of strikes, but there were a decent number of balls put in play for hits and opposite side hitters hit him pretty well. If the velocity jump is real and the Phillies can work to tweak a bit more out of the movement profile, he could be a near major league ready contributor who may never get the results that correspond with the radar readings.
2024 Outlook: Pipkin likely returns to Reading to pitch in high leverage situations. If his stuff is more polished and gets results, he could join the AAA queue of relievers.
ETA: 2024
Previous Rank: UR
43. Robert Moore, SS
Age: 21
Acquired: Traded by the Brewers to the Phillies with Hendry Mendez for Oliver Dunn on November 14, 2023
B/T: S/R
H/W: 5’9” 170lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| WIS (A+) | 123 | 563 | 8 | 26 | 9.8% | 19.2% | .233 | .321 | .361 |
Role: Glove First Bench Infielder
Risk: High – Moore had a below average offensive season in high-A in his first full year, and his power issues have a long enough track record to not be a fluke. His glove will play up the middle.
Summary: The Phillies acquired Moore when they declined to protect Oliver Dunn and wanted to get some value before losing him in the Rule 5 draft. He is a solid defender at both shortstop and second base, and has been reported to have plus speed (but has been a poor base runner). The problem is Moore’s bat. He had a breakout 2021 sophomore season at Arkansas where he hit 16 home runs in 61 games with a .275 ISO, but that has been the only average power he has ever really shown. He is already pull heavy, so there isn’t more power coming from maximizing that. His quality of contact was also poor, with a heavy diet of ground balls and pop ups to go with a low amount of hit-producing contact. He has decent contact rates, but nothing that will carry a lighter hitting bat. Without strength coming from somewhere unforeseen, he projects as a multi positional, up and down bench infielder.
2024 Outlook: Moore is young enough where repeating high-A wouldn’t be the worst, but the AA infield group looks much weaker than what is coming from behind, so he might get thrown into AA to try and keep his head above water.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: N/A
44. Kendall Simmons, 2B/3B
Age: 23
Acquired: Drafted in the 6th Round of the 2018 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’0” 180lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| PHI (FCL) | 8 | 33 | 1 | 2 | 12.1% | 18.2% | .346 | .455 | .615 |
| CLW (A-) | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.3% | 33.3% | .000 | .333 | .000 |
| JS (A+) | 50 | 213 | 8 | 3 | 10.3% | 25.8% | .267 | .362 | .494 |
Role: Power over hit bench infielder
Risk: Extreme – Simmons has never had 400 plate appearances in 4 full seasons, and he continues to swing and miss at a high rate.
Summary: Simmons was a raw player when the Phillies drafted him out of high school, and he largely has looked like that through his time in the Phillies system. He has plus to plus plus raw power coming from excellent bat speed, but his swing has some swing and miss, pitch recognition and plate discipline struggle at times. He has also missed time to injury in every season. 2023 was no exception, and he only managed 59 games with 4 trips to the injured list. He was incrementally better at the plate in 2023, and has tapped into his power much more consistently, especially just going to the pull side. Defensively, Simmons is primarily a second baseman, where he does not look out of place, and he still sees time at third as well. His swing and miss will likely hold him back from becoming anything, but the shape of a player is starting to make more sense, and he could be a power infield bat off of a team’s bench eventually.
2024 Outlook: Simmons should open the year in Reading, and while staying healthy is a big part of a successful season, he is slated to become a minor league free agent after the season, so 2024 could make or break his career.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: UR
45. Jake Eddington, RHP
Age: 22
Acquired: Drafted in the 7th Round of the 2023 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’2” 185lbs
2023 Stats: Did not pitch professionally in 2023
Role: #4 Starter / Middle Reliever
Risk: Extreme – Eddington missed 2022 due to Tommy John surgery and his control was poor in his return in 2023. He was a starter in college, but his role is not solidified.
Summary: The Phillies selected Eddington in the 7th round of the 2023 draft, where he fits their model of college arms on the starter/reliever borderline with control issues, but interesting pitch characteristics. The pre-draft reports have Eddington with a fastball that had ticked up after surgery and was up to at least 97 and possibly 99. His slider was his best pitch and looks to have two plane break. Baseball America cites him as having a changeup as well. In his return to the mound his control was poor, walking 40 in 55.2 innings, which is concerning, but considering the context will warrant future follow up. If the changeup doesn’t develop and the command is just ok, there does seem to be a reliever fall back with the fastball and slider, especially if the velocity on the fastball sits in the top end of the range in short bursts.
2024 Outlook: Eddington likely starts the year in Clearwater. He only pitched 55.2 innings last year, so it is likely he has limitations on his innings. Like any college player he has a chance to move to Jersey Shore if he performs well in the Florida State League.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: N/A
46. Aroon Escobar, 2B
Age: 19
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies on January 15, 2022
B/T: R/R
H/W: 5’11” 180lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| PHI-W (DSL) | 33 | 134 | 1 | 13 | 14.9% | 9.7% | .209 | .343 | .300 |
Role: Average Regular
Risk: Extreme – Escobar is far enough away that it is hard to limit his ceiling, but he is also about as far away as a player can be. He has shown a good ability to make contact, albeit in a year repeating in the DSL.
Summary: Escobar was one of the Phillies larger 2022 signings and got that season off to a big start with a big home run. It was a much quieter season for Escobar in 2023 as injuries caused some disruption and he struggled to make quality contact. He is a solidly built infielder that has already moved over to a second base/third base timeshare and should be able to play both positions. At the plate, Escobar has plus bat speed and should have plus raw power as he grows older. Escobar does show a good approach and feel for contact with 26 walks to 17 strikeouts in 162 PAs on the season. He ended the season on a high note, hitting .273/.402/.364 in 19 games (84 PAs) after coming back from injury, as well as a solid postseason. He will need to start turning the good contact and approach numbers into quality of contact, and that will be the biggest thing to watch in 2024.
2024 Outlook: It looks like Escobar will get his stateside chance in 2024, where he will be in competition with the other young infielders for playing time in Extended Spring and FCL games.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: 49
47. Yemal Flores, OF
Age: 20
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies on February 2, 2021
B/T: R/R
H/W: 5’9” 206lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| PHI (FCL) | 14 | 48 | 1 | 0 | 16.7% | 33.3% | .282 | .417 | .513 |
Role: Second Division Regular
Risk: Extreme – Flores barely played in 2023, and his 33.3% strikeout rate was a career best. The most likely outcome is he doesn’t even make it to AA, but the tools are intriguing enough to not fully bury him yet.
Summary: Flores was the Phillies largest signing in the 2021 international signing class as an athletic outfielder with big bat speed and power, but serious questions about his ability to make contact. Through three years of pro-ball those concerns have largely been carried out. He does have a plan at the plate, but there is a large amount of swing and miss. He still has easy raw power. He missed most of the season due to injury, but in addition to some slight improvements in the walk and strikeout rates, his quality of contact greatly increased in the small sample. Defensively, he played mostly the outfield corners this season after getting time in center the last few years. The Phillies have indicated he has improved on defense, but reading between the lines it does look like his center field defense is behind the better gloves there. That said, he should be a good defender in either corner and if his bat hits its ceiling, then he will have the power for the corner position. There is still a large chance that Flores never makes enough contact to be anything, but he did look better this season. There just wasn’t a large sample of work to show that those improvements make him a much better prospect.
2024 Outlook: Flores has spent the last three seasons in the Dominican and Florida complexes, and at age 20 it is nearing the time to let him sink or swim in Full Season ball.However there are enough outfield bats in the low minors he might need to have a good spring to make that happen. He could see time in both the FCL and FSL depending on how things go.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: 38
48. Alexis De La Cruz, RHP
Age: 19
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies on January 15, 2023
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’6” 205lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| PHI-W (DSL) | 10 | 9 | 2-2 | 31.1 | 4.31 | 7.2 | 0.6 | 12.7% | 32.1% |
Role: #3/#4 Starter
Risk: Extreme – De La Cruz has pitched one season in pro ball, but up an ERA of 4.31 and walked 4.9 per 9 in the DSL. While there is plenty to dream on in the frame and the base of his arsenal, it really is mostly a dream right now.
Summary: De La Cruz signed as an 18 year old for an undisclosed (likely low) signing bonus at the open of the 2023 signing period. If you don’t look at the stat line and just at the video, it is pretty clear why the Phillies and outside observers like De La Cruz. He is tall and well proportioned with the room to add a bit more strength. He also repeats his delivery well for his size. His fastball mostly sat 90-94, but the Phillies have reported him up to 96. He comes from a fairly high angle, but gets good extension on it and can work it up in the zone well, and it appears to have a good movement profile (all visual, I don’t have the spin or movement). His breaking ball has been called both a curveball and a slider, and the truth is definitely in the middle as it sits 77-81 and has two plane sweeping movement. It would not be surprising if it shaped into either more of a curve or a slider, or they keep it as a sweeper and then add around it (commonly the Phillies have gone with a cutter and/or true vertical curveball). He shows feel for a mid 80s changeup with fade. It is not hard to visually see a big bodied innings eater type from De La Cruz, but I don’t know if there are currently front line traits, and the command and control can get a bit loose. The big question will be if there is more stuff to be worked out of the frame and delivery, and whether he settles in on a sort of mid rotation trajectory or we are waiting for a breakout to come.
2024 Outlook: De La Cruz is slated to come stateside where he should pitch in Extended Spring Training and the FCL.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: N/A
49. Angel Liranzo, LHP
Age: 17
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies on January 15, 2023
B/T: L/L
H/W: 6’1” 172lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| PHI-W (DSL) | 10 | 4 | 5-0 | 30.1 | 0.89 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 7.5% | 28.0% |
Role: #4 Starter
Risk: Extreme – Liranzo is likely to add more velocity as he matures, but he is currently throwing in the high 80s. There is a very long developmental road ahead of him.
Summary: Liranzo was one of the youngest signees in the 2023 international class, and spent most of the season at 16 before turning 17 in early August. He has an advanced feel and arsenal for his age, but his actual velocity and stuff was lagging behind his teammates. He has a 4 pitch mix with a slider, curveball, and changeup complimenting the fastball. His fastball sat 87 to 89, with the occasional 90. His breaking balls both were in the 70s, and while there appears to be feel for shape and command, both looked like they need some more power behind them as they were a bit loopy. He sells his changeup well, and it is likely to be the pitch that carries him for a while. Statistically, he was one of the best starters in the league, as hitters had little answer to the pitch mix and good command. The command comes from a fairly simple delivery that he repeats well, and he should have good command and control going forward. The Phillies coaches have gone on the record with Ranger Suarez comps, and given the height and arsenal there are definitely similarities to Suarez, especially when he was a prospect. Much like Liranzo, Suarez’s fastball was well below average velocity for many of his early years, and it was slow development to start before he grew into more velocity and his stock took off. It is likely we see somewhat of a similar path with Liranzo where he moves a bit slowly, especially given his age, and then moves quickly once his stuff is more prospect caliber.
2024 Outlook: Given his lack of current stuff, and that he will pitch most of the season at age 17, it is likely that Liranzo repeats the DSL
ETA: 2029
Previous Rank: N/A
50. Cam Brown, RHP
Age: 22
Acquired: Drafted in the 10th Round of the 2023 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’3” 225lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| PHI (FCL) | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0.1 | 54.00 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 60.0% | 0.0% |
| CLW (A-) | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 1.1 | 20.25 | 20.3 | 0.0 | 45.5% | 9.1% |
Role: Middle Reliever
Risk: High – Brown walked 40 batters in 55.1 innings at TCU and had 8 walks to 1 strikeout in 1.2 innings across 3 games in pro ball. His stuff will not allow him to have success with below average control.
Summary: Brown fits the Phillies model of college draftee. He was a starter with good size, control issues, and one interesting trait. In this case, Brown throws a low to mid 80s slider with spin rates averaging over 2600 RPM that is more of a traditional two plane pitch than a sweeper or gyro. His fastball is mid 90s with middling spin and movement, and he throws a changeup, but one that likely does not stick around as a reliever. The Phillies could run him out as a starting pitcher, but it is likely he goes to the bullpen where they could look to add a cutter or other option, but most likely his path is throwing his slider over 50% of the time and using the fastball more sparingly.
2024 Outlook: Brown briefly made an appearance in Clearwater, and is not a dominant enough arm where the Phillies should be prioritizing fast tracking him. That means a likely return to Clearwater in a bullpen role.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: N/A
51. Wilmer Blanco, RHP
Age: 20
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies on December 14, 2021
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’3” 170lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| PHI-W (DSL) | 11 | 10 | 2-2 | 45.0 | 2.80 | 6.2 | 0.2 | 10.5% | 26.0% |
Role: #4 Starting Pitcher
Risk: Extreme – Blanco was good in the DSL, but was not overwhelmingly dominant or showed stuff that would portend future dominance.
Summary: Blanco was a late signing in the 2021 signing period and made his debut in 2022 as a starter and reliever, and struggled with his control. In 2023, he was a starter (he had a couple of late appearances where they backed off his innings) from the start of the season. He was able to pitch deep into games as the year progressed, sort of an outlier for an arm at his level. Blanco’s primary pitch is a fastball at 90-94 that visually looks to have good carry, and he already has a feel for elevating it for misses. He then pitches off of that with a vertically oriented mid 70s curveball that fooled the Dominican Complex level hitters. He has a mid 80s changeup that shows some run to it, but he will need to work on it to stay in a rotation. Blanco still has a bit of room to add a bit more velocity, and he repeats his high three quarters delivery well and shows good command for his age. As an added bonus, Blanco pitched a gem for the DSL Phillies White in the elimination game against the Angels and came out of the bullpen 4 days later in the elimination game vs the Pirates, where he saved them late but ultimately gave up the walk off home run
2024 Outlook: Blanco is projected to come stateside for Extended Spring Training and Florida Complex League. He is on the older side so the Phillies could push him to the Threshers at some point.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: UR
52. Alex Rao, RHP
Age: 24
Acquired: Drafted in the 10th Round of the 2023 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’4” 230lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| PHI (FCL) | 1 | 0 | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| CLW (A-) | 15 | 6 | 0-3 | 27.0 | 6.00 | 9.3 | 0.7 | 11.5% | 27.0% |
Role: Middle Reliever
Risk: High – Rao largely missed most of the season and did not pitch in his expected role for most of it. His college control issues continued in pro ball.
Summary: Rao was expected to be a fast moving reliever when the Phillies drafted him, but the Phillies moved him to the Clearwater rotation to open 2023. He struggled in the role, pitching 2-3 innings per appearance. They then moved him to the bullpen, and he was better there for 3 of 4 appearances before missing 2 and a half months with an injury. He was a one inning reliever upon his return. His fastball was 92 to 95 earlier in the season and more 91 to 93 upon his return. He struggles to throw the pitch for strikes, but he actually gets a decent number of swings and misses on it (27%). He throws a slider with decent spin and sweeper movement, but struggled to get results on it, and late in the season he started to throw a harder cutter. His best offspeed is a mid 80s split change that he threw mostly as a chase pitch (51% ball % and 3% called strike %), but gets a large number of whiffs on it (45%). If he is going to find success in a relief role, it is going to be on the back of the changeup in a pitch mix that resembles Hector Neris.
2024 Outlook: Rao struggled for the Threshers, but is entering his age 24 season, so unless he looks terrible in camp, it is likely he opens in the BlueClaws bullpen.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: 37
53. Gunner Mayer, RHP
Age: 23
Acquired: Drafted in the 5th Round of the 2019 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’6” 190lbs
2023 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| JS (A+) | 23 | 20 | 3-7 | 77.1 | 5.47 | 9.0 | 0.5 | 15.1% | 22.1% |
Role: #5/#6 Starter
Risk: High – Mayer probably has a bit more upside, from physical projection, than up and down starting pitcher, but right now his stuff is more fringy. He doesn’t have the fastball or secondary pitches to profile as a reliever.
Summary: Due to his inexperience pitching and age, Mayer was functionally a high school level arm when drafted. Due to the pandemic and injuries he pitched under 90 innings total over his first four pro seasons. His 77.1 innings in 2023 represented a career high, and he ended up pitching in 23 games and spending the full season in the BlueClaws starting rotation (both his relief appearances were “starts” after a rehabbing player on reduced innings). Mayer still has room for a little more velocity, but sat mostly 90-94 in 2023. He throws a trio of secondary pitches, and both the curveball and changeup have shown promise at times, but overall he has lacked consistency. Delivery and command consistency have also been a problem for him, and there were multiple starts where he racked up a bunch of base runners and pitches early and was out of the game quickly. The shine has started to come off of Mayer, and he is going to have to show actual growth next season, and not just the ability to stay on the mound.
2024 Outlook: Mayer pitched the full season at Jersey Shore, so a trip to Reading seems in the works. He will need to start to put up actual results on the mound and not just physical potential.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: 28