Phillies 2024 Top Prospects – The Top of the List

The top of the Phillies system is populated by the usual suspects, the last 4 first round picks (all high schoolers), their best international signing in recent seasons, and their breakout prospect who reached the majors in 2023. While the 1st round picks are not perfect, and all suffer from their own injury or weakness that makes them slightly less impressive prospects, they have also not failed in that realm, and that can be traced back to Alec Bohm (2018) and Bryson Stott (2019). Turning those top picks into major league caliber players is a good start. As for this group of six players, it is 3 distinct groupings for me.

1. Andrew Painter – Painter may be missing all of the 2024 season after missing the 2023 season, but he is still one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, and the prospect in the system most likely to have an impactful outcome.
2. Mick Abel/Aidan Miller – Both of these prospects belong in a top 100 prospect list for me. Not near the top, but more in that final quarter. I still am a believer in Abel, and I think his year represented a lot more change and transition than it looks like. Miller looks like a steal in the 2023 draft and has just enough concerns to not be a top prospect in the game, but in his brief sample size he showed a lot of strong underlying skills.
3. Starlyn Caba/Justin Crawford/Orion Kerkering – Crawford and Caba aren’t meaningfully lower ceiling than Abel and Miller, but their risk is higher. Crawford has major swing and pitch recognition concerns, and Caba does not currently have the strength to impact a baseball at a major league level. Kerkering is a bit of an oddball, but he is a major league ready pitcher that could be in a high leverage situation this year, he just lacks the upside of the others due to role.

All ages are as of opening day (March 28)

1. Andrew Painter, RHP

Age: 20
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st Round of the 2021 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’7” 215lbs
2023 Stats: Did not pitch in 2023
Role: #2 Starter
Risk: Medium – Painter will likely not pitch in a game in 2024 as he works his way back from surgery. He was major league ready last year, and so almost all of his risk comes from whether he comes back as the same guy. He has #1 or ace level upside, but he will need to once again prove he can handle a large workload.
Summary: Painter appeared in one game in Spring Training, where he showed a new cutter and a fastball up to 99. He then experienced soreness and pain in his elbow. Rest and rehab did not work, and eventually he had Tommy John surgery in July. Painter will likely miss the full 2024 season, and the only real possibility is that he makes a few rehab appearances late in the low minors just to get him on the mound before a full offseason. Painter turns 21 just after the season starts, so when he returns in 2025 it will be for his age 22 season.

When healthy, Painter throws a fastball that sits in the mid to high 90s and he can get it up to 101. Due to his size he comes from a steep angle, but he gets great vertical movement on the fastball up in the zone for swings and misses. He pitches off of that with a sweeping slider and vertical curveball. The slider was his best secondary pitch, and he missed bats in the zone and for chases away. He rarely used his changeup, but it flashed good potential. He was working on a cutter to work off of his fastball up in the zone against left handed hitters. He has good control and solid command of his pitches in their optimized zones. It is possible he will come back from surgery throwing a bit harder, because he is so young and projectable that two years of strength building will appear as a singular jump and not gradual growth.
2024 Outlook: Painter will spend 2024 rehabbing from surgery. At some point over the summer he will begin throwing bullpens and possibly against batters in the complex. By the time he may be able to pitch in games, it is likely to be right at the end of the season for all the affiliates. There is a chance he could appear in a short appearance to just get on a mound, but the goal will likely be to complete his rehab in preparation for a full and healthy 2024-2025 offseason.
ETA: 2025
Previous Rank: 1

2. Mick Abel, RHP

Age: 22
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st Round of the 2020 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’5” 190lbs
2023 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB%	K%
REA (AA)	22	22	5-5	108.2	4.14	6.0	1.2	13.5%	27.5%
LHV (AAA)	1	1	0-1	4.2	3.86	9.6	0.0	12.5%	25.0%

Role: #3 Starter that sometimes looks like a 2
Risk: Medium – Abel’s stuff has not taken a backseat from when he looked like a front of the rotation starting pitcher. He has struggled with his command, in particular in getting hitters to expand the zone, and that development is worrying enough to think he might not have the consistency to be a front line arm, even if he flashes it.
Summary: It was sort of a weird year for Mick Abel, full of many changes that often went unnoticed under the surface numbers. He has started to really grow into his velocity, and while there is room for more, Baseball America (who has access to the full minor league data set) reported his fastball averaged 95.9 mph, and my tracking had him as 95-98 in most of his starts, getting up to 100. He faded some in his last start for Lehigh Valley, and he does lose some velocity during his starts, but he still has some room to add the strength and stamina. He doesn’t have ideal movement on his 4-seamer, but he gets good extension and consequently gets pretty low and flat despite his height. This makes it a good weapon up in the zone for swings and misses. In the last month or two of the season he began throwing a sinker as well, and it has large vertical and horizontal separation from his fastball. He throws a harder changeup (89-92mph when he was throwing the fastball in the upper 90s) that has improved over time and should actually be a good weapon for him. The biggest change is in his breaking balls. When Abel was drafted he had a more typical slider shape. That was lengthened out last year to a sweeper, but he never really had good feel or results with it and it blended with his curveball. They scrapped the sweeper in the middle of the year in favor of a harder gyro slider, and it already plays off his arsenal better. This allows him to more easily feature his two plane curveball, and it has grown into a plus pitch he is comfortable throwing in the zone or for chases. In the spring Abel toyed with a cutter, but given the slider change, the cutter likely gets put on the shelf as the cutter plays more in the same role as his new slider, as opposed to aiding a sweeper.

The problem with Abel has been command. He does have some occasional control problems stemming from some inconsistencies in repeating his delivery. He will just throw some uncompetitive pitches that will put him in unfavorable counts and compound his other issues. The Phillies are looking to simplify his delivery and shorten his arm path a bit, and that combined with getting stronger in his lower half is the planned solution to the delivery issues. The other command problem is less tangible and more interlinked into his full arsenal. Abel has a collection of above average to plus pitches, and while he can elevate the fastball up for misses, he lacks a true dominant pitch to get outs in the zone with. He has struggled to get chases out of the zone, and he has racked up balls and consequently walks. Some of the problem is that his arsenal had become predictable, with hitters laying off the fastball up and out or breaking balls away. There was some talk that he was also tipping the breaking ball some. To counter the arsenal problems, the Phillies have made some of the arsenal changes. The new slider is more of a weapon in the zone than the sweeper and, like the curveball, plays better off the 4-seam fastball up. The introduction of the sinker gives him another weapon against right handed batters, and a pitch that can work in the zone for poor contact. The sinker will also give him a more viable way to attack the bottom of the strike zone and open up the changeup as a chase pitch low, as opposed to having to play off the high four seamer.

It is a large arsenal for a 22 year old pitcher in AA, but if the previous arsenal visions of Painter and Abel were Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, then he is now more of a Zack Wheeler clone. He has a similar build and delivery to Wheeler, and now he has an arsenal that more resembles the current Phillies ace’s toolbox of weapons. Wheeler took a while to put it all together, and if Abel is going to hit a front of the rotation upside, it might be years into his major league career as his body fills out more and he has better command of how to use his full arsenal. Abel’s primary role in 2024 will be finding that consistent delivery and working on refining his collection of pitches. He also finds himself at the top of the minor league starting pitching depth chart and near to his major league debut.
2024 Outlook: Abel pitched a full season of innings the last two years and had the one start cameo in Lehigh Valley to end the year. He will need to be added to the 40 man roster after the year anyway, and as of right now is probably the Phillies #6 starting pitcher, but given his developmental needs it is likely they turn to others on spot starts, and he won’t get a turn unless there is a longer injury.
ETA: 2024
Previous Rank: 2

3. Aidan Miller, SS

Age: 19
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st Round of the 2023 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’2” 205lbs
2023 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
PHI (FCL)	10	36	0	0	16.7%	13.9%	.414	.528	.483
CLW (A-)	10	44	0	4	13.6%	22.7%	.216	.341	.297

Role: First Division Regular
Risk: High – Miller is an older high school draftee who played 16 games (including playoffs) in full season ball. He has some length in his swing due to a pre-swing bat wrap that may need to be cleaned up when he faces more advanced pitching. He also posted very good exit velocity and plate discipline numbers in full season ball for a player drafted this summer.
Summary: Sometimes the draft is complicated, and sometimes it comes to a team. The Phillies have been short on picks and open to taking risks in order to compensate for talent loss. Miller was one of the top high school hitters in the country, but he is old for the class (was 19 at the time of the draft) and had not hit for power as a senior due to a hamate fracture. All of that makes him less attractive to a team heavy on analytical models or uncomfortable with the lack of scouting views. The Phillies were happy to take him, and they pushed him quickly to Clearwater after the end of the FCL season. Miller is physically mature, and while he will get stronger, he isn’t super projectable. That is fine, because in the small sample in Clearwater he put up an average exit velocity of 88.2mph, 90th percentile of 105.0mph, and a max of 109.3mph. Those aren’t off the chart elite, but it is 31 balls in play vs full season competition at age 19. He is going to have plenty of raw power, and some of how much shows up in games will depend on his type of contact and whether he continues to have an all fields approach or tries to pull in the air a bit more. His swing has some length to it thanks to a backwards wrapping motion at the beginning that also leads to an arm bar through the zone. He has great bat speed and it currently works for him, but there is some potential vulnerability against pitchers with better stuff. Quieting and simplifying the swing, and then readjusting timing is likely a discussion for when he encounters adversity, and not a proactive correction (unless he initiates it). For now it is something to keep an eye on, but not something to stay up at night about. The other reason it works is his pitch recognition and approach are excellent. Once again it is a small sample size, but he swung at 40% of the pitches he saw with the Threshers, with a 13.5% whiff rate on those swings and 5.4% of the total pitches he saw. The data says he was susceptible to sliders (30.8% whiff rate), but the small sample means that was 4 whiffs on 13 swings and 39 pitches seen. They were sliders up in the zone (which are becoming a more popular technique), but it was a glaring chase hole. If the swing proves to not be an issue, or is cleaned up with no loss of abilities, he could be a plus hitter with plus power and settle into the middle of a postseason lineup.

Defensively, Miller only played shortstop in pro ball, but he is unlikely to stick at the position. The Phillies have not indicated that he is permanently moving off of it, but he should start to get reps at third base, and it is not hard to read the room and see Trea Turner and Bryson Stott entrenched at short and second in Philly and see Miller as Bohm’s replacement. At shortstop he moves pretty well, but his range and movement were just not on the same level as the others the team had playing up the middle. Given that he is likely to lose a step or two as he fills out, it does not look tenable there either. At third, he has plenty of arm, and his actions at shortstop should play well at the hot corner. Until he plays the position, it will be hard to throw superlatives on it, but he has the tools to be an above average to plus defender. Miller is advanced enough that he should move pretty quickly for a high school hitter, and there is a chance that everyone is a bit low on the upside. For now, the sample sizes are small enough and the worries are just numerous enough that it is hard to project him with a higher upside, but another year of playing time could change that.
2024 Outlook: Miller will open the year in Clearwater and likely play a mix of shortstop and third base. Given his age and advanced approach, it is likely he gets to Jersey Shore by the summer. Any promotion beyond that will likely be due to season ending dates and postseason qualification for various affiliates.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: N/A

4. Starlyn Caba, SS

Age: 18
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies on January 15, 2023
B/T: S/R
H/W: 5’10” 160lbs
2023 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
PHI-W (DSL)	38	164	0	16	17.1%	9.8%	.301	.423	.346

Role: First Division Regular
Risk: Extreme – Caba played 38 games in the Dominican Summer League, and managed just 4 extra base hits during that time. He should be at minimum a plus defensive shortstop, and while he has the physical projection and athleticism to potentially grow into some power, it is not there yet.
Summary: Caba was the Phillies top signing in the 2023 international signing class, and one of the better prospects in the class overall. He is an athletic switch hitter, who much like Bergolla the year before, showed an advanced approach at the plate in his debut. He didn’t quite show Bergolla’s contact abilities, but it is still elite for his age and he managed it from both sides of the plate. He also did not hit the ball hard, but unlike Bergolla you can see more physical projection available, and he has a quicker and more athletic swing. Caba gets some comps to Francisco Lindor, and they are similarly sized, athletic, switch hitting shortstops with great gloves. Lindor ended up with much more power than expected with the 30 home run spike in 2017, and it is likely that a more optimistic projection of the strength and power growth for Caba is the 10-15 home runs a year that Lindor was trending towards early in his career. If Caba can continue the selectivity and approach he showed in 2023 and get to that power range, he will be an above average hitter. He might only need to get to below average to be an impact player given his defensive potential. He has a quick first step and plus speed, alongside good instincts. He seems to have enough arm, but I don’t know if I saw him really air one out from the hole to say whether it is going to be a weapon or just fine. He is going to be at least a plus defender barring something catastrophic happening. Unless he suddenly finds a bunch of strength and bat speed without losing the hit tool, he is probably not going to be a good enough offensive player to be a star. However, he could end up a valuable starter for a playoff caliber team, possibly even as a lead off hitter. Given his precociousness for his age and physicality, it is possible that Caba is promoted faster than his statistical production, and that it takes another 4-5 years for the full shape of his offense to come together.
2024 Outlook: Caba will be in Extended Spring Training and likely the Florida Complex League after that. The Phillies aggressively pushed Bergolla in 2023, so they could potentially push Caba if they feel like his hit tool can handle it. Most likely he plays most of his games in the complex, possibly mixing in some second base so others can get shortstop reps.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: N/A

5. Justin Crawford, OF

Age: 20
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st Round of the 2022 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: L/R
H/W: 6’1” 175lbs
2023 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
CLW (A-)	69	308	3	40	8.1%	17.2%	.344	.399	.478
JS (A+)	18	82	0	7	8.5%	19.5%	.288	.366	.425

Role: First Division Regular
Risk: Extreme – Crawford put up great statistical results in 2023, but not in a way that will translate to being a successful major league hitter. He has the underlying physical tools to be a positive offensive player and plus defensive center fielder, but it is going to take the Phillies and him doing extensive work at the plate.
Summary: On the surface, Justin Crawford put up a great season, he hit .332/.392/.467 with 47 stolen bases and reasonable walk and strikeout rates. The first layer under the surface begins to show the cracks, his .404 BABIP was high, and especially so when taken alongside his balls in play. He had only a 16.6% line drive rate and was easily the minor league leader (min 300 PAs) in ground ball rate at 69.7%. The minor league batted ball classification had him with only 38 fly balls on the year and only 30 of them reaching the outfield. His Clearwater batted ball data had him with a median launch angle of -9 degrees, and while that made some slight improvements over the course of the season, his ground ball rate spiked again with Jersey Shore. Most of his success on offense came from his plus plus speed, balls on the ground, and inexperienced fielders in the low minors. Against major leaguers there is a chance that this approach would get him a decent amount of singles, but there are other warning signs. Crawford was an aggressive swinger (53.9% swing rate) who was equally aggressive against anything but curveballs (curveball swing rate 39.8%, all other pitches >50%, including sliders at 57.7%). He was able to make contact with a good amount of fastballs, but he posted high swing and miss rates on sliders and cutters. Most of this came in the form of chase, and pitchers had success against him down and out of the zone.

Many of these problems stem from two things, and unfortunately they are two of the hardest things to correct. The first is his pitch recognition. His overall swing rate is not a huge problem, but he was vulnerable to being caught looking on fastballs (and most pitches) away, but his swing rate on sliders being near where it was on 4-seam fastballs indicates an overall problem with pitch recognition. The other problem is his swing. Crawford’s upper body and lower body are completely disconnected, and his swing can just be all arms at times. That leaves his bat path chopping down, and he struggles to get on plane with a pitch to be able to drive it in the air. All three of his home runs came on balls down and in, and that was true of most of his power, as we can see on a heat map of his isolated power in Clearwater.

The pitches down and in are where his lower half is forced to be engaged on the swing, and he gets the loft needed to be able to drive the ball. Because he doesn’t have his lower half engaged, he doesn’t do damage on the pitches in the high danger parts of the zone.

It is clear that the Phillies and Crawford will need to work on his swing, and they have already started on that. Swing changes are not easy, but there are positive underlying numbers that indicate that these changes could make Crawford into a good hitter. Despite the swing problems and pitch recognition issues, Crawford had the bat control to have a low in zone whiff rate, and while often off balance, he was able to get the bat on the ball. Unlike some of the other hitters in the Phillies org, Crawfords exit velocity numbers are fine for his age. With Clearwater, he averaged 86.5mph, with a 90th percentile outcome of 103.5mph, and a max of 107.4mph. I hesitate to say that exit velocity on balls hit directly into the ground will translate directly into fly balls and line drives. Even if that doesn’t all translate with a swing change with more loft, Crawford is still very skinny and is expected to add strength. It is not unreasonable to think he could get to at least average raw power. He will still need to be able to actually tap into that with his swing, but having the existing wrist and arm strength to control the bat in the zone and still impact that ball is a good base.

This has all ignored the other part of Crawford’s game. He has plus plus speed, and he should be able to use it on the base paths and on infield ground balls. Additionally, regardless of the above discussion of swing changes, bunt base hits are going to be a part of his repertoire, and he already shows some proficiency in them. The speed also plays in the outfield, where he is already a good defensive center fielder. He lacks the instincts and route running that Johan Rojas did at the same level, but there is time to grow into some of that, and that will determine whether he is a plus defender in center or an elite one.

None of the flaws for Crawford are new or surprising, and he might have more upside now than he did a year ago. The risk of making a pretty dramatic swing change and the pitch recognition issues mean that he is very high risk despite the high defensive floor.
2024 Outlook: Crawford spent most of a month in Jersey Shore to end 2023, and he should return there to open 2024. He may make the improvements he needs and push himself to Reading by the middle of the season. He may also need to be pushed to a level where he is challenged in a way that forces him to make changes.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: 5 

6. Orion Kerkering, RHP

Age: 22
Acquired: Drafted in the 5th Round of the 2022 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’2” 204lbs
2023 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB%	K%
CLW (A-)	9	0	1-0	10.1	0.00	1.7	0.0	3.0%	51.4%
JS (A+)	18	0	2-0	20.1	1.77	5.8	0.9	7.5%	33.8%
REA (AA)	21	0	0-1	22.0	2.05	7.8	0.8	5.7%	37.5%
LHV (AAA)	1	0	1-0	1.0	0.00	18.0	0.0	0.0%	20.0%
PHI (MLB)	3	0	1-0	3.0	3.00	9.0	0.0	14.3%	42.9%

Role: High Leverage Reliever
Risk: Medium – Kerkering pitched in the 2023 postseason for the Phillies and had some effective outings. He was likely the best reliever in the minors last season. His fastball is just ok given its velocity, and his command was just not quite where it needed to be in order to be a late inning shut down reliever.
Summary: Kerkering’s breakout started in Spring Training when it was clear he had made a velocity jump. He then conquered every level of the minors and ended up in the majors and on the Phillies postseason roster. Kerkering’s best pitch is his sweeper, which is plus plus, if not an 80 grade pitch. It has outlier sweeper motion in terms of vertical and horizontal movement, but he throws it harder than almost any pitcher in the majors (averaged 86mph in the majors, was closer to 87 or 88 on average in the minors) and with a spin rate that would be one of the best as well. He can throw it in the zone for strikes or for chases, and it has elite rates for in zone swing and miss and chases. His fastball velocity jumped from averaging about 95 in his pro debut in 2022, to 98+ in 2023, and he touched up to 102 with it during the season. Despite the velocity, he does not always get great results on it because the movement is not ideal. He told beat writers that he is working on his sinker this offseason. Having two fastballs will give him the ability to show hitters more looks, and while he can still work the sweeper in the zone off of high 4 seamers, he will be able to work east-west more with the sweeper and sinker the way that Clay Holmes has done. Kerkering has good command of his sweeper, but his fastball command can be lacking at times, and as was shown in the postseason, he will need to at least show hitters a fastball to keep them off the sweeper. Kerkering’s upside is as a closer for a postseason team, and given the Phillies bullpen usage, that could be for them as they move others around, or he could find himself in more of a stopper and 7th/8th inning role.
2024 Outlook: Kerkering will get a very good chance to make the major league team in camp. The Phillies have a bunch of major league arms, and many of them don’t have any minor league options remaining, so a poor camp could see him heading to AAA. He should spend most of 2024 and his career in the major leagues, likely in high leverage.
ETA: 2023
Previous Rank: 22