Christian McGowan

Role: #4 Starter/7th Inning RP
Risk: Medium – McGowan is just a few months back into throwing in games post surgery. He had reliever risk before the surgery, and there are still worrying signs about his complete arsenal and durability post surgery.
Summary: The Phillies went overslot to select McGowan in the 7th round of the 2021 draft, and he had an intriguing debut that year, but 2 games into his 2022 season he suffered an arm injury leading to Tommy John surgery. McGowan returned to games in mid-July of 2023 and slowly moved his way up the levels before sticking with the BlueClaws through the postseason and then making a final start with the IronPigs. He then finished his season off in the AFL giving him 42.2 innings in his return to the mound. McGowan largely looked good in his comeback. He threw his sinker in the 91 to 96 mph range for the most part, and reached back for a bit more in his playoff start. He can manipulate his slider throughout the mid high 80s from more of a sweeper to a cutter. He has a high 80s changeup that he throws fairly infrequently, but has about the same run as his sinker with more drop as he dramatically kills the spin on it. For a pitcher just back from surgery, McGowan showed solid command, but he will need to tighten it up as he had a tendency to miss out of the zone on non-competitive pitches. His fastball-slider combination gives him a solid reliever fall back, especially since he has flashed higher end velocity. However, since he looked solid in his return and the Phillies lack any sort of starting pitching depth, it would be in their best interest to see if he can build on his 2023 season. Unless his changeup steps forward and he can really start to locate, he is probably more of a solid #4 starter, but there is a little more upside than that if he has another gear after a healthy offseason.
2024 Outlook: McGowan made his final start of the regular season in Lehigh Valley, but the Phillies are likely to use the IronPigs for immediate MLB contributors. McGowan likely is in the Reading rotation to start, but given he is Rule 5 eligible after the year, he could work himself into a spot start or bullpen appearance with the big league club late.

Role: #3/#4 Starter / 7th Inning Reliever
Risk: Extreme/High – It is a bit of a cop out, but there is a clear path post injury for McGowan as a sinker-slider reliever. Coming off of Tommy John surgery and throwing a full starter’s workload and arsenal requires a bit more wait and see. Given he appeared in two games in 2022 and we haven’t seen him post-surgery, it is a little early to say McGowan is absolutely a reliever going forward.
Summary: Much like fellow 2021 draftee Micah Ottenbreit, McGowan had a solid but slightly concerning start, and then a disastrous start followed by season ending Tommy John surgery in April. Assuming a normal recovery, McGowan should be back on a mound in a rehab capacity this spring and in games by the summer.

When healthy, McGowan has a mid 90s fastball that can touch higher and a good slider. He did not throw a changeup in pro ball in 2021 (5 innings), but did in college as well as a curveball. His stuff does not jump off the page statistically like many of the Phillies other draft picks, using more of a two seamer with good run and sink rather than a high spin 4 seamer. There were some rumblings that he profiled better as a reliever before the draft, but he does have a starter’s arsenal and build. Missing a year due to injury is certainly a development setback, but assuming McGowan can come back to where he was before the injury it should be more of a bump than a roadblock.
2023 Outlook: McGowan had surgery early in the 2022 season, so he should start throwing in the spring with a return over the summer. Depending on when that is, we could see McGowan ramp up from the complex to low-A, to back to hi-A Jersey Shore. If he comes back healthy, he will also be a prime candidate for the Arizona Fall League.

Role: #4 Starter/7th Inning Reliever
Risk: High – McGowan is a 21 year old with three years of college, but it is 3 years not against the best competition, making him a bit more raw than your usual 3rd year arm. He does not quite have the full arsenal together to be a no doubt starter either.
Summary: McGowan slipped in the draft due to high bonus demands, but the Phillies stopped that slide and signed him for under what his rumored asking price was. He looks more like a 3rd or 4th round pick, and has more upside than you normally find in that area. He has good arm strength,  reportedly up to 99 in college and was up near 97 in pro ball. Like a lot of arms these days he has a distinct 4 and 2 seam fastball, both averaging in that same 92-95 range in his few innings in Clearwater. His slider is his best secondary pitch, but he also has a changeup which he did throw in the small sample size in Clearwater. His fastball and slider give him a very solid fall back in the bullpen, but he has enough arm strength and pitch mix to give him an outside shot as a mid rotation starter if the whole thing comes together.
2022 Outlook: McGowan was a starter in college, and that is almost certainly where he will spend at least the first year of his career. There are a lot of pitchers slated for A ball, and he probably gets the bump to start the year in Jersey Shore and spend most or all of the year there.