Cole Hamels

The logical last piece of this series of posts was to talk about what an actual Cole Hamels trade would look like.  If you have not read parts 1-3 (Surplus Value, Valuing Prospects, and The Value of Hamels) I strongly advise you to go back and read them because this will be a continuation of the topics discussed in those pieces.  I am going to explore the potential outcomes for a Cole Hamels trade looking at surplus value, how fans value Hamels in a trade, what his value is on the field, and how the Phillies value Hamels in a trade.

The teams that definitely have the money and prospects to be in on Hamels are the Red Sox, Cubs, Rangers, and Dodgers.  On the fringes the Pirates, Royals, Diamondbacks, and Blue Jays all have the resources to make a deal happen.  There are many factors to a Hamels trade, from his salary, to the “surplus value” he will return, to the rarity of such a pitcher being available on the market.  All of these factors go to together, and while some may be objective, the end result will be very subjective.

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To read part 1 on Surplus Value go here

Based on the set up of this site and everything I have written before, you can tell I like prospects, and at times I have immersed myself too much into prospects.  However, the access to minor league information and the number of people and sites covering it has led us to have a very twisted view of the world of prospects.  We now have entered a world where we simultaneously over and under value prospects based entirely on hype that we generate and demand.  We expect great things immediately from prospects because we have been spoiled by recent successes, and we call players busts well before they have had time to adjust to the majors.

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Until he is traded the speculation around Phillies ace LHP  Cole Hamels will never end.  What has played out over the past 3 months has been a battle at the core of WAR and prospects and how we value players in trades.  In many ways the debate as left me questioning the models we use for WAR and whether we are truly advancing the game forward with how we use statistics in analysis.  I got into writing because of statistics, I majored in Physics because of my love of numbers, but I have learned something through the process, if you live in a world purely of numbers and idealized scenarios you lose your grasp on reality.  In an ideal world we marry numbers and observation to further what questions we can ask about the game and create a more vibrant discussion.  Over the next few days I am going to break through some parts of the Hamels trade speculation and what kind of return the Phillies feel like they should get vs what the media and fan are saying they should review

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