For very good reasons, the Phillies have drafted late the last 3 years now. Even prior to that, their mediocrity left them in the middle of the first round. It was easy to have opinions on 10 players that might go in the top 5, more difficult to have opinions on 20+ guys that might go in the top 15, and pretty much impossible to have useful and unique opinions about the Phillies 1st round pick this year, let alone beyond that. Lucky enough, we can replace speculation on individual players with speculation based on the people involved. This will be the 5th draft by the Phillies under Brian Barber, and their 4th under Barber and the Dombrowski/Fuld front office.
Before getting into trends, lets just do a refresher on their picks.
To me the Phillies drafts can be summed up with a comfortability with risk. Being comfortable with risk does not mean reckless, and I think it comes in some specific aspects.
Limited Track Records
This has come both in terms of actual time against top level competition, but also players missing time to injury. Aidan Miller is their biggest swing, but TJayy Walton also fell in the draft due to lack of looks. Then there are players who did play in big tournaments or top level competition like Devin Saltiban, Mavis Graves, and Jordan Viars. Then there are players who have limited time against top level competition like Gabriel Rincones Jr. who played one year in Division I baseball. This level of comfortability means doing homework and trusting limited scouting work over statistical analysis.
Risky Player Archetypes
By this I mean high school pitching, and to a lesser extent the Justin Crawford pick. The Phillies saw high school pitching as an undervalued player type that teams were let falling in the draft and they took players in Andrew Painter and Mick Abel who would have traditionally been top 5 to 10 picks. Some of these picks are the nature of first round picks being a small sample to draw conclusions from. But the Phillies have been linked to college arms and high schoolers throughout the processes. Unlike some previous Phillies drafts, the current Phillies are drafting low enough where there isn’t going to be safe types of players with upside so it is better to take on the risk in exchange for the upside. Outside of the top of the draft, the Phillies have generally spent their money on high school players going high dollar in round 11 on high school hitters the last two drafts as well.
Risky Tools
This is where things turn towards the more debatable tendencies of the Phillies. Like much of the sport, the Phillies have taken college pitchers with control issues. In rounds 4 to 6 of the last 3 drafts the Phillies have taken Griff McGarry, Alex McFarlane, Orion Kerkering, and George Klassen. Those have all been great picks, even with McFarlane’s injury and McGarry’s fall from grace. It is a type of player with a high chance of failing, but as we have seen across the sport, it is where some real impactful starting pitchers can be found. It feels a near lock that in the middle of Day 2 of the draft the Phillies are going to take some big velocity, big stuff arms with poor control and see if they can fix them. They are likely to do it throughout their draft, but it is a near lock to happen with picks that are not too low.
On the other side, the Phillies have fallen for some real hit tool risks. They haven’t taken every poor hit tool that has been linked to them, but Casey Martin might be their biggest miss, and Justin Crawford’s offensive impact and swing was questioned coming into the draft. He wasn’t a big swing, though he has a big swing, but they took Baron Radcliff in 2020 and then have taken Logan Cerny and Avery Owusu-Asiedu late on Day 2 in 2021 and 2023. On Day 3 they have taken toolsy college players who performed in the college ranks against sometimes lesser competition, who have real holes at the plate. This, coupled with a lack of track record in hitting development is probably the place that is the biggest risk for how the Phillies draft.
Beyond comfortability with risk, the Phillies take a lot of big RHPs on day 3 of the draft. They have sometimes valued spin, but not always. But there are guaranteed to be a bunch of 6’4″ 220lb college RHPs with control issues.
What to Expect in the First Round
The Phillies to be opportunistic. I don’t expect a good college bat to fall to them because every year in the draft teams talk a big game and then rush to college bats. I expect something similar with college starting pitching. The Phillies have been linked to high risk college pitchers in each of Brian Barber’s drafts, they have never taken one because either a better player was there or the player didn’t fall. So if a big time arm with some control and role risk falls, they could take them. I expect then for them to be looking at the high school players who fall as teams suddenly pivot to college players and below slot players. The Phillies do have their second round pick this year, so they have more bonus room to play with, but not enough that if a top 10 projected pick slips this far they are the team that is going to make room for them. There is a chance someone big falls through, but I would look at the high school bats ranked in the 20-35 range on national lists as their first targets and then maybe there are some arms that might interest them, but I think the Phillies being into high school arms had more to do with guys who might have been top 10 picks falling into the teens than a proclivity for arms over bats.
Matt,
I’d love to hear your thoughts on Vance Honeycutt. The Athletic mocked him to the Phillies and sited his swinging strike percentage on balls in the strike zone or something to that effect as the reason he is falling in drafts. It is a huge concern amongst teams, enough so that they are overlooking everything else about him.
I have not dived too deep to any prospect, but what has been written about Honeycutt’s swing and miss and pitch recognition really concerns me. I think the offspeed stuff a player sees only gets better, and we have seen a trend of players struggling in the majors who struggle with offspeed and especially struggle with zone contact. I think there is a huge ceiling with the defense, but I would be worried he isn’t going to hit. I think on top of that, the Phillies have not been great at getting hitters to improve in the areas where Honeycutt struggles. I would not take him if he fell to them and I would be worried if the Phillies did take him if they could bring out his upside.
Matt,
I appreciate your insight. I have only seen highlights with most of those being him playing extraordinary defense in CF. He seems to have immense power but with as much swing and miss against college pitching, I understand the concern.