The Phillies Have Pitching Depth Conundrum

The Phillies optioned James McArthur to the minors today, earlier in the week they optioned Hans Crouse and Francisco Morales. This leaves 8 nominal starting pitches in big league camp, the 5 pitchers in the expected opening day rotation and then Bailey Falter, Cristopher Sanchez, and Nick Nelson. While critiqued by some, the Phillies expected rotation of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, Zach Eflin, and Kyle Gibson is a very competent group of 5 pitchers. The problem is that Wheeler is behind due to an offseason injury, Suarez is behind due to visa issues, and Eflin is potentially behind due to knee surgery late in the 2021 season. It has caused many to worry about the Phillies starting pitching depth.

The first question is, are those fears warranted, and the response to that is yes. There is no such thing as too much starting pitching depth, and with Bailey Falter as the nominal #6 starter, that depth is thin. Most of the Phillies high minors pitching prospects of note are one with an obvious role either in a bullpen or hanging on to the back of a rotation. In their small samples in major league spring training it was clear to see the strengths and struggles of individuals like Morales, McArthur, and Sanchez were a multi inning relief role could provide the big league club value and starting role might be shaky. For now though, all of this pitchers remain stretched out as starting pitchers because there is no real depth above them.

This problem could clearly be remedied by just acquiring depth, but Matt Gelb laid the problem there out on his new podcast with Paul Boye Phillies Therapy. If you are a major leaguer signing a minor league deal or really a deal in general, you are going to be attracted to opportunity, and in this case the opportunity to pitch in a big league rotation. The Phillies cannot offer that. An injury might open up a spot, but none of the in pen rotation is going to be removed due to performance by someone who isn’t a premium established arm.

The farm system is also not providing any time soon either. The Phillies have 3 premium pitching prospects in Mick Abel, Andrew Painter, and Griff McGarry, and none have pitched above A-ball. Erik Miller has starting pitcher stuff, but due to injuries and the pandemic has not pitched a starting pitchers workload in two years. The rest of the expected AA and AAA rotations have some interesting arms, but no one who you would describe as having a straight forward path to giving the major league team quality innings.

This leaves the team stuck in an uncomfortable position, because they need bullpen depth too, and there is a legitimate argument that some of these pitching prospects could contribute meaningful innings very soon. The Phillies have been unwilling so far to expose themselves to starting pitching disaster by just embracing those pitchers in a relief role. The harsh reality they are about to face is that they have put themselves in a category where they need to win baseball games this season, and they cannot afford to have players sitting on rosters as backup plans at the expense of providing major league value.

In the end the Phillies probably try to play the middle road, keeping pitchers stretched out, but willing to throw them in the major league bullpen if needed. What they should do is accept some risk with their reward and bite the bullet on the pitchers that could impact their bullpen and have them get ready for that while keeping pitchers like Bailey Falter and Hans Crouse on starting work, and just praying that if they need 8 starting pitchers before a solution presents itself they either are going to have to make bold moves or accept that their losses are too great to overcome (in a scenario where the Phillies are deep into their pitching depth they have probably lost the impact major league arms in the process).