After his terrible start on Wednesday afternoon, the calls from fans to release Taijuan Walker have only gotten louder. The Phillies have justifiably dragging their feet up to this point on making the most final of decisions they can make. There are scenarios flying around about how the Phillies could delay that decision. They could carry him in a very limited bullpen role and then give him a full offseason to try and solve whatever his problem is. He was a totally acceptable #4 starter last year, and he is only 32 years old, there are reasons to talk yourself into him that aren’t the nearly $40 million remaining on his contract.
The problem is that every seduction of keeping Walker is a move the Phillies cannot make this fall or this winter. Both those individual times might be bad enough, but when combined they put the Phillies in a position they have largely avoided.
This fall is really this September, as Walker was never factoring into a productive October. The Phillies cannot start Taijuan Walker again this year, that was made clear by his performance and that of the team behind him. They will need to replace his starting spot and they do not have an actual option to do so. They have some options to try and cobble together enough innings, but if they keep Walker around he is unlikely to be part of that solution, and he will negate their ability to add when rosters expand. The Phillies are already down Jose Alvarado which has opened up both an optionable roster spot, but also a hole in their high leverage. Right now if the Phillies kept Walker they would have only their September call up, Max Lazar, and Michael Mercado to mix and match with. If they leave themselves too short handed they risk overexerting the relievers they will need this October.
This winter poses a different set of challenges related to the 40 man roster. If the Phillies want to see what improvements Walker might make they need to carry him on the 40 man roster all winter, and so the payoff of what Walker might be must be balanced against what else they could do. This probably starts with talking about what Walker might be and the role he would have going forward if he did rebound. Assuming there are no injuries, the Phillies have 4 starting spots locked in between Wheeler, Nola, Suarez, and Sanchez. They hope that at some point in 2025 Andrew Painter will be a big part of the rotation. That means the ideal state is Walker is a caretaker #5 starter, a role he was able to be for much of last year. However, much of that success came when he featured fastball velocity well above this year. That leaves a large gap that Walker needs to cover this winter.
As stated before that waiting through the winter requires that the Phillies carry him on the 40 man roster the whole time. Spots on the 40 man roster are a valuable asset. Last year the Phillies were able to use 40 man spots to sign Kolby Allard and Spencer Turnbull as optionable depth with some upside, but they also allow for waiver claims and to protect their own players from the Rule 5 draft. The Rule 5 part is where the Phillies must make some interesting and important internal decisions about their young pitching depth.
The Phillies already have Seth Johnson on the 40 man roster, and if they call up Tyler Phillips he will have an option left to use as depth. For new additions to the 40 man rosters, the Phillies will at minimum have Mick Abel, Jean Cabrera, Moises Chace, and Eiberson Castellano eligible for the Rule 5 draft and needing protection (they will also need to make decisions on Robinson Pina, Christian McGowan, Griff McGarry, and others who are much lower likelihood of needing protection). That is a sizeable amount of starting pitching depth that projects to be on the 40 man roster and either in AAA or near to it.
Outside of the starting pitching that needs to be added, the Phillies will need to rebuild their hitting depth. Every hitter on the 40 man roster in AAA will be out of options next year (Weston Wilson will have an option left, but is currently in the majors). In the bullpen, Max Laxar, Michael Mercado, and Kyle Tyler will have options, but the Phillies will need to augment them with more depth outside of the starting pitchers helping out.
There is no point to keeping Walker through the fall if you don’t plan to also keep him the entire winter. By doing so, the Phillies would deny themselves the ability to improve at two critical junctures with a very low chance at an actual payoff for their time and actions. It is time for them to move on, eat the money, and be fine if Walker figures it out with a different organization.