Rob Thomson’s Masterful Postseason Bullpen Management

The Phillies are in the World Series. It feels like each article should and does start with that. It is due to a bunch of factors, the most obvious of which are timely home runs and some masterful pitching by Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. On the less obvious side, isn’t that the Phillies bullpen is much better than most people continue to say it is, but that the Phillies have deployed their limited resources in the bullpen in a way that has not pushed any one pitcher to the brink, but also has allowed them to bring home all of the close matchups.

Before going into the game by game analysis, my assumption is that the Phillies do not want to push any of their bullpen arms to the point of injury so guys who pitched excessive innings or pitches the previous day or pitched the last two days are functionally unavailable. No one is really unavailable in the playoffs unless they are hurt or too tired to be effective, but until the World Series you don’t really want to render any of your players unusable going forward. I also say Rob Thomson at the top because he is the face of the team, but it is clear that Caleb Cotham and others are very involved in this decision making.

NLWC Game 1: Zack Wheeler

Unavailable: None

Zack Wheeler – 6.1 IP 2 H 0 R 1 BB 4 K

Wheeler departs in the 7th after getting Nolan Arenado out. Rob then turns to Jose Alvarado against the lefties of the Cardinals lineup. Alvarado ends up walking Dylan Carlson and then Juan Yepez pinch hits for Corey Dickerson and deposits the first pitch into the outfield to put the Cardinals up 2-0. This is firmly a “shit happens” sort of experience, Yepez was looking for the cutter, Alvarado threw the cutter which has been good for months, and Yepez hit it. The Phillies then get 10 pitches out of Ryan Helsley, but do not score in the top of the 8th.

This is where the Phillies made their first really good move. The Wild Card round is a 3 game series, you probably are not going to lean on your late inning guys for 3 days. It is also a 2-0 game so you don’t want to let the Cardinals open up a big lead and Pujols is batting 3rd followed by Goldschmidt and Arenado. Thomson could have gone Dominguez or tried to get two from Eflin, either move renders that player likely only good for one of what looks like 2 must-win games. Instead he goes to David Robertson, a formerly good closer who is now more of a solid 7th inning arm. It is a situation where you can reasonably expect that Robertson could keep this to a 2 run game. He does, the Phillies score 6 in the top of the 9th and Thomson goes to Eflin to close it out. Dominguez is still fully available for Games 2 and 3, and Eflin and Alvarado are available for one of the two.

NLWC Game 2: Aaron Nola

Unavailable: None

Nola goes 6.2 innings, gives up a single to Corey Dickerson with the Phillies clinging to a 2-0 lead. This is a pretty standard close out situation. Alvarado comes in to face Molina, the Cardinals fail to pinch hit for the dude that isn’t hitting Alvarado’s velocity, Alvarado deals with him. Thomson leave Alvarado in for the switch hitting Edman so he can get to Nootbar. Alvarado once again walks the dude he is supposed to get out. Thomson then goes to Dominguez who Pujols beats with a single before Seranthony completely re-arrives on the scene and strikes out Goldschmidt and Arenado. Now into the softer underbelly of the lineup, Eflin makes things dicey, but cleans it up.

Really standard L/R bullpen management, the big thing from this game is that Dominguez looks dominant again.

NLDS Game 1: Ranger Suarez

Unavailable: David Robertson

Phillies jump out to a 6-1 lead, but Suarez is walking everyone. Thomson leaves Ranger in to get Michael Harris II and then lifts him before the dangerous against LHP Robbie Grossman with one out in the 4th and a runner on first. Andrew Bellatti is their middle innings stopper vs RHPs, and Thomson uses him here to get into the top of the order. Now the Phillies need 15 outs up 7-1. They only get 3 before Brogdon and Hand have problems.

At this point the Phillies are up 7-3 and have a chance to take Game 1 of 5 with Ranger on the mound. Bottom of the 6th is Acuña, Swanson, and Riley so Thomson boldly goes to Dominguez who aces that and then with only 10 pitches in his first inning of work comes out for a second, rendering him probably unusable the next day, however it is Wheeler in Game 2 and then an off day so you could push one of Eflin or Alvarado in Game 2 if needed. Dominguez going 6 outs allows for Alvarado vs the lefties and Eflin vs the righties and Eflin proves he shouldn’t be in late innings, but they win anyway.

This is the game that shows that Eflin shouldn’t be closing, but also that you can push Dominguez for 6 outs.

NLDS Game 2: Zack Wheeler

Unavailable: Seranthony Dominguez, David Robertson

This is the BABIP, plus Hoskins error game. With the Phillies down 3 and facing a bunch of games in a row, Thomson opts for the NLWC game 1 strategy and with Robertson out, it is Bellatti to keep it close. He does, they don’t score and then Thomson gets Syndergaard some work before his Game 4 appearance. Sort of a soft concession bullpen buys the big guys two days of rest…

NLDS Game 3: Aaron Nola

Unavailable: David Robertson

The offense gets to Spencer Strider, and Aaron Nola cruises for 6. Thomson does start his bullpen parade in the top of the 7th with the score 6-1 with Alvarado vs 2 pinch hitters and then Acuña and Swanson. The Phillies add 3 more and Thomson turns the middle relievers in Hand and Brogdon (his first outing of starting to look good) to save his bullpen for needing to win 1 of 2.

NLDS Game 4: Noah Syndergaard

Unavailable: David Robertson

Syndergaard goes 3 innings and by having used Brogdon and Hand in the previous game, Thomson is able to empty the bullpen behind Syndergaard once the Phillies get early runs. Bellatti is once again the stopper in the middle innings. He gives up a home run to Olson, but the job is to eat innings and not allow rallies. Now at the bottom of the order you see Thomson go to Brad Hand with the lefties coming up. Alvarado pitched in Game 3, but by the 6th the Phillies are committed to getting the final 12 outs from the big guys. So Alvarado gets the middle of the order, and then gives up a garbage time home run to Travis d’Arnaud in his second inning of work once the Phillies have broken it open. Eflin goes 1.1 to finish off Alvarado’s 7th and cruise through the 8th. Dominguez is now the closer and the Braves go quietly in the 9th

NLCS Game 1: Zack Wheeler

Unavailable: None

Wheeler for 7, Dominguez for the righties, Alvarado for the inning with Soto. I could have managed this one.

NLCS Game 2: Aaron Nola

Unavailable: None

Rob leaves Nola in too long, breaking from his previous managing. Nola had not thrown that many pitches, but everything was hard hit. Given his previous managing it would have made sense to have had Bellatti or Brogdon up (probably Brogdon) for Profar and Soto, but they rely on Hand vs Cronenworth once it was already out of hand and it got more so. Very reminiscent of NLDS Game 2 management in that Thomson used his non-critical relievers, getting Brogdon some work (work that would pay off in a couple of games), then easing in Robertson, and showing that Kyle Gibson still existed. The Nola thing is understandable, but it is the one blunder, and then Thomson does a good job of buying rest.

NLCS Game 3: Ranger Suarez

Unavailable: None

In essentially a must win game Ranger pitched great for 5 innings and then this was the time for Rob to lean on the horses to get things done. Some are going to argue he should have let Ranger go more, but it is Machado and Drury for a 3rd time, and if it goes 7 Ranger is the short rest starter, or maybe you bring him back later. The only real critique is maybe you try to push Eflin to save Dominguez, but it is important to remember they are facing a bullpen game in Game 4 so Eflin for length is likely more important. They clearly wanted to split the Alvarado/Dominguez workload 1.1/1.2 and not 1/2, but Alvarado threw a lot of pitches and Dominguez did as well to close it out. Once they had the lead, they needed to win and then figure out the next day without Dominguez and Alvarado.

NLCS Game 4: Bailey Falter and the Bullpen

Unavailable: Seranthony Dominguez, Jose Alvarado

I am not sure if the two big guys were unavailable unavailable, but I don’t think you wanted to work either. This game management is all about prolonging the moment you might need to give up. Going into Wheeler/Nola in games 5 and 6 you really don’t care about the usage on Bellatti, Brogdon, Hand, and Robertson. Eflin is the closer so you need 7 innings to get from Brogdon cleaning up the first and Eflin, maybe only 6+, but it is close. Brogdon pitched extremely well, as did Bellatti. Hand might have been the bridge too far (and probably should not pitch again this postseason) and that gets it to the 5th where Thomson is then ready to move into live to fight another day. The team gives Syndergaard the lead and Thomson moves directly into bring it home mode once there is trouble.

NLCS Game 5: Zack Wheeler

Unavailable: Zach Eflin, Connor Brogdon

By pushing the bullpen in waves, Thomson has avoided having his whole back end down at once. If it wasn’t pouring rain I think the plan would have been to go Dominguez and then Alvarado for a total of 3 innings to close it out, instead they get two blowing the game on rain induced wild pitches, until Harper saved everything. This game is just the pure opposite of the Padres side. Thomson deploys his big guys early and then figures it out later. Figuring it out later fell on Robertson, who did not have it on the back to back appearance, and then we got our first hint of starter usage with Ranger to close it out.

Some Takeaways

That is a bunch of text, but I think there are some clear usage takeaways from Thomson in this postseason.

• He is not afraid to push a big arm for more than 3 outs. It seems with Dominguez they are more willing to go 6 outs and have to have him unavailable than push him back to back and then rest.
• By pushing one of Dominguez, Alvarado, Eflin, etc at a time the Phillies can keep at least one and normally two available at all times while still getting 3-4 innings to close out a game.
• Andrew Bellatti is Thomson’s go to guy in innings 4 to 6 vs the heart of the order and RHBs. Brogdon might now be that guy vs lefties.
• In a losing effort, Thomson is quick to sacrifice the middle relievers to aggressively keep it close and then go to the bulk guy, vs going to the bulk guy first.
• The Phillies aggressively play pockets of the lineup and are not afraid to go to a big arm earlier than normal to deal with certain pockets of a lineup. This may be especially relevant against an Astros lineup that is not that deep.