The Phillies are in the World Series and it has been a long time. Yesterday I tweeted about how Ranger Suarez has been in the organization since signing on April 1, 2012 and it got me thinking about what these players used to be like. So I went digging through the site archives for the first mention of Ranger and found it in a piece on the 2015 GCL Phillies alongside Seranthony Dominguez. Excited by this, I decided to expand this to the whole set of players who were once Phillies prospects (whether the team drafted or signed them, or traded for them as prospects). For those players that have been in the org for a long time I found my first mention of them, and for the rest their first appearance on a ranking. I have not edited these since their original publication and so enjoy the bad writing and bad opinions.
*I included Bailey Falter and Dalton Guthrie who were on the postseason roster in previous rounds, but not the World Series roster.
Pitchers:
RHP Aaron Nola
Drafted 1st Round Pick of 2014 Draft (#7), signed June 12, 2014
Nola has been described as “safe” and “polished”, words that may give some the impression that he lacks impact as a pitching prospect. Nola’s fastball sits 90-93 and routinely touches 95, and in college he was able to get to 97 in a big showdown with Tyler Beede. The discussion of his velocity overshadows the explosive late life on his fastball, though this movement was less present late in the season as he tired. The more advanced of Nola’s secondary pitches is his breaking ball, which is really a curveball but Nola’s arm slot makes it look like a slider, that he can spot in the zone and use it as a chase pitch. The general consensus is that it has plus potential if he gains consistency. Nola also has a changeup that flashes plus potential, but Nola does not use it as confidently as the fastball or curveball. On top of the three plus pitches, Nola has good control, is developing solid command, and has an impressive feel for pitching. On an individual basis, Nola’s stuff is only solid, but the full collection makes for an impressive arsenal. The likely outcome for Nola is as a mid-rotation starter who could get there fairly quickly. However, Nola’s feel for pitching could see continued growth in his secondary pitches, as well as results that are above his individual pitch grades. Nola will start 2015 in the minors, and he should make the majors at some point in the second half of the 2015 season.
LHP Ranger Suarez
Signed as an International Free Agent April 1, 2012
First Report – 2015 GCL Preview
Suarez throws a ton of strikes, walks no one, is left handed, is only 19, and put up a 1.56 ERA in the VSL last year. Only problem is that he throws in the mid 80s and at 6’0″ 177 pounds he is not oozing with projection like the HS left handers the Phillies have taken recently. It looks like they will give him a chance to start and see if the stuff comes along.
Ever since putting up a 1 to 78 walk to strikeout rate in 80.2 innings in 2014, Ranger Suarez has been the poster child for numbers not lining up with a prospect’s tools and upside. At the time, Suarez was pitching in the mid 80s with his fastball. The next year, when he dominated the GCL, he was pitching in the high 80s, touching up to 91. By the 2016 season, Suarez was starting to have enough stuff to back up the numbers, sitting in the 88-91 range, touching up to 93 with his fastball, and nearly making the back of some prospect lists. It became clear by the middle of the 2017 season, the Ranger Suarez dominating with inferior stuff was no more. Suarez for Clearwater was sitting 92-95 with his fastball, with a harder slider than he was throwing for the Crosscutters. Suarez also throws a good changeup, and while neither it nor the slider are monster pitches, both could be above average or a touch better thanks to his command. Not only did his increase in stuff lead to a dramatic increase in strikeouts, but Suarez was able to do so while maintaining his success in generating weak contact (ground balls and infield fly balls). His success across both A ball levels forced the Phillies to protect him on the 40 man roster this offseason. The one big knock on Suarez is that he only has 1 season vs full season competition, and none of it is in AA, so the quality of competition has not been great. There is a chance that his lack of elite stuff makes him look more ordinary, but there is also a chance that we are continuing to underrate how good his command and feel for pitching is, and he is actually more of a mid rotation than back end starter.
RHP Zach Eflin
Drafted 1st Round of 2012 Draft (#33) by the Padres, Traded to Dodgers, Traded to Phillies for Jimmy Rollins on December 19, 2014
Eflin represents the best chance for an impact prospect among the Phillies’ trade returns. Eflin has a large frame, and he uses it to bring a fastball at 92-93, touching 94, however he touched as high as 97 in a start this year (h/t to Ronit Shah). The frame and the velocity spike have made some speculate that Eflin could sit at a higher velocity. He complements the 4-seam fastball with a 2 seam fastball at 89-91 that he uses to generate ground balls. Eflin’s best pitch is his plus changeup that combines good late fade with solid deception. His slider is still a work in progress and has average potential, but it lacks good break. Eflin has good control of his pitches, but has been more successful at generating weak contact than missing bats. If everything stays static, then Eflin is more of a back end, innings eating starter. If he can make the slider consistent and mix it in with the other two pitches, while polishing up his command, he could be a low end mid-rotation starter. The pipe dream is that the fastball will tick up more to 93-95, that he will start missing bats. Eflin will open the year in Reading, in what should be a stacked starting rotation.
RHP Seranthony Dominguez
Signed as an International Free Agent May 31, 2012
First Report – 2015 GCL Preview
Seranthony was a member of the GCL bullpen last year as a 19 year old, this year as a 20 year old he looks to be a part of the rotation. This spring he has been sitting 93-96 early in outings before fading to 91-94 in later innings. Seranthony is not a big guy and has struggling with control both last year and so far this spring. He is well worth keeping an eye on.
Dominguez’s name first came up in 2015, when he was up to 96 in Extended Spring Training. He made only 2 appearances in the GCL before going down with an injury. The Phillies held Dominguez back in Extended Spring Training again in 2016. In the beginning of the season, the reports on Dominguez were exciting, with him showing the same explosive fastball at 92-96, a potential plus curveball, and feel for an above average changeup. The Phillies sent him north with Williamsport, but after 3 starts, he was bumped up to Lakewood to close out the season. After a rough first start (5 ER in 1.2 IP), Dominguez put up a 1.54 ERA over his next 9 starts. Dominguez is still raw as a pitcher, and much of his dominance comes from his fastball. his offspeed pitches are still more of backseat offerings, despite their potential. Seranthony will also need to transition from fastball control to fastball command, as he still misses his spots in the strike zone. At the high end, Dominguez looks like a mid rotation starter with 3 plus pitches, but his flaws and his height will get him a lot of reliever comps as he continues to progress through the system.
RHP Connor Brogdon
Drafted 10th Round of 2017 Draft, signed June 19, 2017
After a transition year in 2018, the 2019 season saw Brogdon pitch full time as a reliever. He is a tall lanky righty who gets good extension on his pitches, especially his fastball, which has sat firmly 93 to 95, touching 96 out of the bullpen. His best secondary pitch is his changeup, but he does have a breaking ball as well. Brogdon’s plus control helps his whole arsenal play up. He should be ready to contribute to the major league bullpen in 2020, where he profiles as a 7th inning arm more than a closer.
LHP Bailey Falter*
Drafted 5th Round of 2015 Draft, signed June 18, 2015
Bailey Falter was one of a couple of curious day 2 picks for the Phillies in the 2015 draft. While he lacks in now stuff, Falter is a bet on the Phillies’ developmental staff because he has all of the building blocks to be a very good starting pitcher. Falter sat in the hi-80s in pro-ball and has touched into the low-90s in short bursts, but has the frame to add enough velocity to sit in the low 90s. Additionally, Falter’s fastball features some natural run. There is some debate over his delivery, with some leaning more smooth and easy and others finding it a bit stiff, but the delivery is fairly low effort. In addition to the fastball and its future growth, Falter shows feel for solid off speed pitches. The more advanced of the two pitches is his changeup, which shows good deception and fade. His curveball lacks sharpness and bite, but was also hurt by the poor fastball in the GCL. Falter also shows solid control, but his command lags behind like most young players. The next step for Falter will be refining his pitches while putting on weight and gaining velocity. The optimistic view here is that the Phillies’ development staff can repeat its previous success with adding velocity to their young pitchers (Medina, Kilome, Pinto, to name a few). The counter is that physical development is far from a sure thing. Falter’s development is unlikely to be linear with a jump coming when he adds enough velocity to make hitters respect his fastball.
Hitters
1B Rhys Hoskins
Drafted 5th Round of 2014 Draft, signed June 10, 2014
Hoskins is going to be a trendy sleeper prospect in The Phillies system now that he has been pushed out of most Top 30s. There are good reasons to believe in the Phillies 5th round pick in the 2014 draft. After getting off to a slow start in Williamsport, Hoskins proceeded to rake for the rest of the year (hit .289/.373/.478 in August), and he hit even better away from Bowman Field (.298/.380/.529). He continued the hot hitting right into instructs. Hoskins has a good feel for contact, but he doesn’t have elite coordination or bat speed. He does have at least plus power and a good approach, so there is the raw potential for his bat to work at first. On defense, Hoskins is a good defender at first base, and pre-draft there were some that thought he could play the outfield. The real thing holding down Hoskins is the profile; as a first baseman he has to hit his offensive ceiling and then keep proving it at every level. If Hoskins starts 2015 in Clearwater, he can begin to answer these questions and could move fairly quickly, he just doesn’t have any margin for error.
SS Bryson Stott
Drafted 1st Round Pick of 2019 Draft (#14), signed June 27, 2019
For much of the draft process, Bryson Stott was viewed as a top 10 pick, but on draft day he started to fall a bit, as teams with extra picks swung deals and a couple high upside high school bats rose. Part of the reason Stott fell in the draft is he lacks not only an elite tool, but also a plus one. However, Stott does not have a tool that is below average. He is not the greatest defender at short. His range is fine and his fielding is good, but his arm just has average strength and his throwing motion is a bit funky. It is likely that, if he has to move off of shortstop as an everyday position, he could easily handle second or third base. For now, there is no need to force that issue, and if he can stick at the position it helps his overall profile. At the plate, Stott has some swing and miss because his swing has some upper cut to it. However, he has a good approach at the plate and makes good contact. He has above average raw power, which likely plays more average, and he is an above average runner as well. The collection of tools, if he can play a solid shortstop, has a chance to make him a first division regular in aggregate. It is highly likely some part of his skill set fails to develop to its peak, making him merely a solid regular that can be plugged in at three different infield positions depending on team need. He is not as polished as some other college bats, but he should move fairly quickly and could contribute to the Phillies by mid 2021.
3B Alec Bohm
Drafted 1st Round Pick of 2018 Draft (#3), signed June 11, 2018
Alec Bohm was supposed to have the best combination of hit tool, power, and approach in the 2018 draft. So naturally after being drafted #3 overall by the Phillies, he went out and had a horrendous pro-debut. It wasn’t just the numbers that were bad for Bohm, the scouting reports were poor on his defense and on his bat speed. There are a myriad of potential reasons for the poor year, including a pitch to the knee that caused him to miss a month of games after only two weeks in Williamsport. Part of the reason Bohm went so high in the draft is because he has overcome issues like this in the past and has consistently made adjustments every level and every year.
Team G PA HR SB BB% K% AVG OBP SLG Wichita St
(Fr)51 191 6 0 4.7% 13.1% .300 .346 .489 Coastal Plain League 54 203 11 0 9.3% 13.1% .330 .407 .552 Wichita St
(So)58 233 11 5 10.9% 11.7% .305 .385 .519 Cape Cod League 39 154 5 1 7.1% 12.5% .351 .399 .513 Wichita St
(Jr)57 224 16 9 14.7% 10.5% .339 .436 .625 Despite the power cratering in the pros, his walk and strikeout numbers were still pretty good, indicating the underlying talent is still there. Physically, Bohm is huge with more room to fill in. He has plus plus raw power and a good hit tool. He has yet to really put the power into games at its full level, and that will be a challenge for the Phillies hitting coaches. He may end up seeing his strikeouts climb a bit as he drives the ball more, but the payoff could be 30+ home runs a year. His defense has drawn a lot of concerns and questions. He is never going to win a Gold Glove at third base, but he has a strong arm and is fairly athletic. He had mixed results in Williamsport, but the Phillies cleaned him up some in Instructional Leagues to make him a bit better at the speed of pro game vs college. His size does make some evaluators concerned that he will outgrow the position, especially as he gets older and loses a step. If he does have to move off third base, an outfield corner or first base should be well within his skillset. Despite the poor start to pro ball, Bohm still has the upside to be a perennial All-Star third baseman, who hits 30+ home runs, draws a ton of walks, and anchors a lineup. He is going to have to make a lot of adjustments and improvements coming into the spring, but that has been his track record.
OF Matt Vierling
Drafted 5th Round of 2018 Draft, signed June 11, 2018
It is a bit surprising in retrospect that Vierling did not make Baseball America’s top 500 draft prospects. He hit very well at a big conference school (Notre Dame), and he will show 5 tools and a possibility of staying up the middle defensively. The big glaring weakness on his resume was a poor track record with wood bats, especially a .182/.245/.273 line in the Cape Cod League in the summer of 2017. After signing, Vierling blitzed through Williamsport, and then had a poor July in Lakewood, with 2 walks to 21 strikeouts in 24 games. He was absolutely on fire down the stretch, hitting .323/.393/.570 in the last 26 regular season games, with a more reasonable 8 walks to 17 strikeouts. Vierling can player center field right now, but he is probably destined for an outfield corner. He was a pitcher in college, but will just hit in the pros, and his arm does translate as plus in the outfield. He has solid raw power and showed the ability to actualize it during his August hot streak. The big question is his hit tool. He showed in college that he could hit and keep his walks and strikeouts in a good place, a feat that he repeated at the end of the South Atlantic League season. However, his July coupled with his past wood bat experiences lend a lot of hesitancy to saying his problems are fixed. He will need to show the hit tool against upper level pitchers before there is a lot of confidence in it going forward. He will need to have the hit tool to succeed, because moving to an outfield corner puts a lot of pressure on his bat to provide the impact in his profile. If he can show that he can hit, he will rise quickly up lists during the season.
IF Nick Maton
Drafted 7th Round of 2017 Draft, signed June 20, 2017
The Phillies took Maton in the 7th round out of a junior college. After a solid, but unspectacular opening year, Maton went to Lakewood as the everyday shortstop. Maton tailed off a bit towards the end of the year (he was hitting .278/.340/.442 after July, before hitting .180 the rest of the way), but he showed a solid across the board skill set for the BlueClaws. At the plate, Maton has a solid hit tool and below average power. He has a good, but not amazing approach and he has some speed, but isn’t a burner. For right now, he can handle shortstop, but he is not a lock to stay there. A move to second base would help his glove profile better, but his bat is unlikely to be an asset there. Long term, Maton profiles as a bench infielder, and he probably could play third base and outfield with reps. If he can unlock a bit more power, he might be able to hold down an infield position on a poor team or team loaded with bats elsewhere.
IF/OF Dalton Guthrie
Drafted 6th Round of 2017 Draft, signed July 6, 2017
The Phillies took Guthrie in the 6th round of the 2017 draft and gave him a 5th round bonus. Entering the year, Guthrie was looking like a top 2 round pick as one of the few pure shortstops out of the college ranks. He suffered a shoulder injury that sapped his arm strength and limited him at the plate. It also caused Guthrie to only play 9 games in the GCL, where he walked 5 times to 1 strikeout. In the College World Series, he showed off the range for shortstop with some highlight plays, but he will need his arm strength to come back for him to stick at shortstop in the pros. Guthrie has poor power and average speed, so he will need to continue to make plenty of contact to have enough offensive impact. If he can be an above average defender at short, then he has a chance to be an average regular, but any slip offensively will make him more of a utility infielder. If he can’t play shortstop in some role, then he is going to have a hard time being a major league prospect.