Player Protection Decisions Loom Over Phillies Deadline Strategy

The Rule 5 draft has largely been rendered obsolete as a talent acquisition tool, but the threat of it and the managing of the 40 man roster spurs other parts of player movement. The Phillies under Dave Dombrowski have largely tried to keep their 40 man roster limited to players who can play in the majors that season. There have been an exception made for top prospects (Johan Rojas), but the lack of top prospects have rendered that mostly untested and left the Phillies very aggressive in leaving players exposed, a strategy that has been successful so far. They have also used trades to move players who are about to be in this protection tier, with players like Logan O’Hoppe and Ben Brown on the block for the their roster status as opposed to similarly regarded peers. This will likely determine the direction of the deadline this year as pitchers dominate the Phillies Rule 5 and minor league free agent protection lists and will push certain players to the top of trade lists.

The Rule 5 Pitchers

Andrew Baker, Christian McGowan, Griff McGarry, Mick Abel, Jean Cabrera, Samuel Aldegheri, Eiberson Castellano

There is no way or reason that the Phillies will dump all of these players at this deadline, but barring injury or ineffectiveness it is logical that all of these pitchers will be in strong consideration or lock to be protected this winter. With every member of the current Phillies major league pitching staff other than Jeff Hoffman and Spencer Turnbull under team control next year, there is not room to carry a host of potential starting pitching depth. Based on current health and effectiveness, this is why you are and will continue to see Cabrera, Aldegheri, and Castellano’s names come up over the next week.

Minor League Free Agents

Dominic Pipkin, Kendall Simmons, Carlos De La Cruz, Max Lazar, Matt Kroon, Simon Muzziotti

Unlike the Rule 5 contingent, the Phillies would either need to give these players a 40 man spot or let them walk (where they could agree to re-sign them). Normally this group of players is not compelling, but this year it is and it is important to note that a year ago Tyler Phillips was in this group, as was Michael Mercado in the Rays organization. I don’t think anyone here is headlining a major deal, but if the Phillies make a small depth move this is the group that they are likely to be fine parting with a member of.

Fringe Players and others to Know

Estibenzon Jimenez, Jaydenn Estanista, Tommy McCollum, Tristan Garnett, Erick Brito, Gunner Mayer, Andrew Schultz, Juan Amarante

There is often a spot for a fringe trade or an extra player in a larger trade, and this is a group to look at. Almost everyone here is a reliever, outside of Brito who is a bench infielder type, and Amarante. Amarante is only 20 and is having a good year in the FCL. The problem is that he is a ticking Rule 5 time bomb because he was signed and released by the Pirates in 2021 making him perpetually Rule 5 eligible. Amarante is not a threat to be taken now or next year, but if the Phillies make him a piece in a deal (teams are likely interested) that could be why.