Adonis Medina

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Name: Adonis Medina
Born: 12/18/1996 (19)
Position: P
Height: 6’1″
Weight: 185
Bats/Throws: R/R
Options Remaining: 3
Rule 5 Eligible: 2018
MiLB Free Agency: 2020
Drafted: International FA
From: Santo Domingo, DR
Signed: 5/29/2014
Bonus: $70,000

Stats: MiLB | B-Ref | Fangraphs | Baseball America | Baseball Prospectus 

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2019 Preseason (#3):

Role: #2/#3 Starter
Risk: High – Medina is going to open the year in AA, shows 3 plus pitches, and has good control, all of which should combine to make him a fairly safe mid rotation starter at minimum. However, his start to start consistency was lacking in the FSL, and he showed dominant starts followed by absolute duds. If he can’t find consistency, then he is going to end up being pushed to the bullpen.
Summary: Medina broke out onto the scene in 2015 when he arrived in the GCL throwing in the low 90s with control. Medina is now a bit more filled out and sitting 91-96, touching up to 97, with heavy sink. He has developed a plus changeup with good fade and sink. The biggest development in the past two seasons has been him scrapping his curveball in favor of a slider that has become a plus pitch and bat misser for him. In the Florida State League, Medina flashed dominance, with two different starts with 0 walks and 12 strikeouts. Medina has good control, but has a tendency to leave very hittable pitches in the strike zone. Medina is a bit on the smaller side, but he is athletic with a clean delivery and has shown the ability to shoulder a full season workload. Much of what Medina needs to improve is his polish and consistency, allowing his stuff to actually play at its ability. With 3 plus pitches and strong ground ball rates, Medina profiles as a mid rotation starter at minimum. If he can improve his command enough, he has the chance to be a solid #2 starter. He is on the 40 man roster, but he is young enough that the Phillies don’t need to rush him and can give him time to work through his issues in Reading.
2019 Outlook: Medina is going to open the year in Reading, and AA should be a tough test for him. When he is on he, should be able handle any hitter, but more experienced hitters are going to force him to clean up his mistakes or get pummeled. Despite being on the 40 man roster, he shouldn’t see the major leagues in 2019 except as a possible September bullpen weapon if the Phillies are still in the mix.

2018 Midseason (#3): 

It has been a slow rise through the Phillies system for Adonis Medina, spending a year per level so far. Medina is not having the best statistical year, trading dominant starts and disasters. Beyond the results, Medina’s year has been encouraging. His fastball is a heavy pitch that sits in the mid 90s, routinely touching up to 96-97. Medina is still working on the command of his offspeed pitches. He has mostly scrapped his curveball in favor of the plus slider he flashed last year. His changeup is also a plus pitch with good fade and run. It is a bit hard (high 80s), but is a bat misser. Medina can fill up the strike zone with all of his pitches, but can struggle to hit his spots. When on, Medina looks the part of at least a #3 starter, with #2 upside. When his command isn’t there, you are reminded that Medina is still only 21. Medina will be added to the 40 man roster this offseason and should move to AA next season.

2018 Preseason (#5):

Role: #3 Starter
Risk: Medina is polished for a low minors starter, with a 4 pitch mix highlighted by a plus fastball. He has only one year of low-A, but he should move quickly through the system.
Summary: It raised a lot red flags in 2016 when Adonis Medina only struck out 34 batters in 64.2 innings (13 starts) for Williamsport. In 2017, Medina had accomplished that mark midway through his 5th start in under 30 innings. The difference wasn’t his fastball, which did tick up a bit from 90-94 to more 92-95, still touching into 96-97 range. The pitch is heavy, and he can pound the zone with it. There were changes in the secondary pitches. His changeup showed more fade and deception and earned some future plus grades from people whosaw it. He also started scrapping his curveball in favor of the slider he flashed late in the 2016 season. The slider doesn’t fit perfectly into his arsenal, and it was noted he occasionally telegraphs it. He also has his slider and curveball blend into a slurve at times, but with time the slider should get a bit harder and become a plus pitch. That would leave his curveball as more of a change of pace pitch. What really stands out for Medina is his command and feel for pitching for his age. He mixes his pitches well and can locate all of them. In addition to the this season’s strikeout rate, Medina was able to maintain a solid ground ball rate and a very high infield fly ball rate. There are a few minor warts with Medina. Like a lot of the Phillies pitchers, he is on the short side, and unlike Sanchez he is a bit slight of build. He has been a workhorse so far in his career and has yet to have an injury in his 4 seasons. Of a bit more concern was some stark home/road splits, given Lakewood’s reputation as a pitcher’s park. Given all of the variables involved in scheduling and minor league travel, it is something to monitor more than worry about. The same could be said of his declining strikeout rate in the second half. It could have been the second trip through the league, it also could have been some fatigue setting in as he eclipsed his career high in innings. Medina lacks the upside of Sixto Sanchez, and probably will never be a front line starter, but he can be a solid middle of the rotation arm, and could be that before he is 23.
2018 Outlook: Medina will head up a level to Clearwater. Given his polish and pitch mix, he should finish the year in Reading before landing on the Phillies 40 man roster in the offseason.

2017 Midseason (#7):

Last year, Adonis Medina struck out under 5 batters every 9 innings, despite raw stuff that received near universal praise from evaluators. This year, he is striking out over 10 per 9 innings. Medina’s fastball is consistently in his higher velocity range, sitting 92-96 with heavy sink. He has shown more consistency with his changeup this year, and it looks like a future plus pitch with good fade and deception. The big change for Medina this season has been his breaking ball. Early this year, he switched from his curveball to the slider he flashed at the end of the 2016 season. His slider is a future plus or better pitch that gives him a weapon to finish off batters with. He does telegraph the pitch and needs to work it more naturally into his arsenal. Long term, Medina should have three plus pitches and plus control, and that gives him the ceiling of a high end #3 starting pitcher, but there is a chance at a bit more if he can refine his ability to pitch and sequence.

2017 Preseason (#9):

Role: #3 Starter
Risk: High – Medina struggled with striking out batters in 2016, and he is far away from the majors. However, he has 3-4 above average to plus pitches and good feel and command, which makes him safe to stick as a starter.
Summary: Sometimes when evaluating prospects, we encounter players where we are unable to reconcile the statistics with what we see. Medina’s season contains one such discrepancy, his strikeout rate. Medina’s breakout came in 2015 when he went from a high 80s strike thrower to an 18 year old flashing 3 potential plus pitches. Given his youth, the Phillies sent Medina to Williamsport. Medina was dominant out of the start, allowing only 2 runs over his first 5 starts. He also carried a no-hitter into the 9th inning of a start. Even during that dominance, he did not strike many batters out. This is where things get puzzling, because Medina should be getting strikeouts. Like Sixto Sanchez and Franklyn Kilome, he has a heavy sinking fastball. His sits 91-94, but he showed that he can touch up to 97. Medina mixes in both a curveball and changeup that show above average to plus potential. At the New York-Penn League, he unveiled a slider with plus potential, including late bite. Medina has more polish and feel for pitching than the average 19 year old, and he has the easy repeatable delivery to throw good strikes. He just did not miss bats this season. It was short season ball, so there is no reason yet to have concern. In 2015 Kilome had a similarly concerning strikeout drop, before coming out this year and missing more bats than ever before. Medina has mid rotation upside if he can continue to progress with all his secondaries. If that doesn’t work out, he flashed the upside to be dominant reliever.

2016 Midseason (#10):

Medina was the breakout pitcher of the GCL team last year when his velocity jumped to sitting 91-94 and touching up to 96-97. This year he has been much of the same, working off the fastball and using his advanced secondary pitches to generate weak contact. His strikeouts are down, but it is hard to argue with how efficient Medina has been for a short season pitcher. The highlight of this was on June 27 when he carried a no-hitter into the 9th. He is a bit more feel than some of the Phillies other low minors arms, but lacks some of the raw upside due to his smaller frame. Even so, he has upside as a mid rotation starter thanks to the potential for three plus pitches.

2016 Preseason (#13):

Role: #2/#3 Starter
Risk: Extreme – Medina has only started in the GCL and has yet to sustain success over a full season.  Medina still needs to work on his secondary pitches and command.
Summary:  Last year Medina was an afterthought, a line in a spreadsheet saying he threw 90-91.  The first time Medina really appeared on my radar was this spring when Chris King (2080 Baseball/Perfect Game) and Tim Williams (Pirates Prospects) reached out to tell me about this kid throwing 94-97 with a hammer curve.  Medina had come on in relief for Franklyn Kilome in an Extended Spring Training game that day, and he would repeat the same feat in relief later in the spring as well.  As a starter, Medina sits more in the 91-94 range but he can reach back for 95-97 occasionally.  What make him so special, given his age, are his secondary pitches.  His changeup and curveball both show above average with plus potential as he gains consistency with them.  Altogether that gives Medina a chance at 3 plus pitches with room for the fastball to maybe grow another grade.  The negatives for Medina are exactly what you would expect for an 18 year old.  He has more control than command and will need to learn how to locate his pitches better.  Additionally, he needs to work on his consistency, as he didn’t often have all three pitches working throughout a start.  Medina is yet another scouting and dev success story for the Phillies.  He was a projectable 17 year old when they signed him, and he has grown a lot in the last year.  Given his age and present stuff, Medina could grow into a #2 starter in time.  It will be a long journey with a lot of potential issues along the way.
2016 Outlook:  Medina will be 19 years old next season and is advanced enough that he could make the jump to Lakewood.  It is more likely that the Phillies take it slow and keep him in Extemded Spring Training before sending him to Williamsport.

2015 Midseason (#21):

What Happened:  Coming into this year Medina was an 18 year old RHP who had touched 90 last fall after putting up good numbers in the DSL.  That ended when some people saw him follow up a Kilome start in extended spring training by sitting 93-96 with a hammer curve in a relief outing.  He has since transitioned to the GCL rotation where he is sitting 91-94 touching 95, while a flashing a plus curveball and above average to plus changeup.  Medina won’t turn 19 until December and looks to have at least mid rotation starter upside, but there might be more velocity to come.
What Next:  This is Medina’s first time as a full time starting pitcher and he recently set a career high in innings at 6.  If he keeps up what he has shown so far he will only continue to climb up prospect lists.

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