Jump to Scouting Reports (Klassen / Aldegheri)
After the Austin Hays trade, which quick aside is a good trade assuming they don’t overthink Hays’ role, the Phillies needed a RH reliever. It was always on the shopping list, but now there was a gaping hole. They filled that hole with Angels closer Carlos Estévez. The price they paid was large, sending RHP George Klassen and LHP Samuel Aldegheri out in the deal.
There are two parts to this trade that are important to separate. The first is the return. Estevez is on a real run of success this year, but his underlying numbers are a little less optimistic. His K/9 looks dramatically down, but it has only dropped because of his success with his K% only dropping from 27.8% to 25.8% which is not a huge change, but also isn’t an elite rate. He gets by, by throwing in the zone a ton. He is a heavy fly ball pitcher who has avoided the home run big. His BABIP is an unsustainable .202. He throws hard and his slider grades out really well on stuff models. He hasn’t had big L/R splits and he doesn’t have a big boost from pitching in Anaheim.
All of that is to say that I don’t know if he is an actual lights out end of a bullpen and more not just another weapon. And he is a weapon, he might pitch late in the postseason so Thomson can deploy Hoffman in the highest leverage. He is a definite good piece that should help in October, and that is the real goal and need of the trade.
On the other side, Aldegheri being traded is unsurprising. He was the most logical player to be in this deal, because he is a good starting pitching prospect and is going to need a 40 man spot. The other player is Klassen, the Phillies 6th round pick in 2023. He has broken out this year throwing strikes after terrible control in college. He isn’t an entirely tailor made analytics friendly arm, and he has a lot of reliever risk. However, Klassen is 96-98 T99 which makes his fastball work, even with poor shape, and as importantly he hold velocity into deeper pitch counts adding when needed. His slider and curveball are both good pitches and will be where his success will come from. He hasn’t pitched deep into games and his efficiency can be lacking, which is where the bullpen risk comes in. There is a real chance the Phillies got off of him before things cratered a bit. However, it feels like they sold him at the low point with him valued as a future reliever in this deal. I would have liked to have seen the Phillies hold to a higher value on him in a trade or worked to build that starter value with another year of development, because I don’t think there was a rug pull imminent.
For both players, they are moving from a very good pitching development team to a really poor one. Aldegheri is a bit of a kitchen sink pitcher who is going to need to learn and adapt to be more than in the tumultuous world of back end starter. For Klassen, he needs to split into a 4-seamer and a sinker, and probably add a changeup or split to be a starter. His control issues are right under the surface and there is a chance he bombs with the Angels because they can’t help him.
To me, the deal is an overpay given what we know today. They needed an arm and got the best of what looks to be a poor crop of high end relievers. We don’t know fully what the market will be, and the Phillies could have jumped and paid a premium or got in front of a crazy set of deals. He is a rental too, and while I don’t think paying big for control is a good idea, paying this price you would hope for that extra year. It just feels like they bought high on him and sold low on their guys. It isn’t a killer trade, and the regret solely will hinge on Estévez in the postseason, it is just paying the markup.
Scouting Reports
RHP George Klassen
Summary: Klassen could not throw strikes in college, and while his command has not always been ideal as a pro, he has mostly been able to as a pro. His fastball sits mostly 96-98 and will get to 99, with not ideal shape. What has been carrying him his his hard slider/cutter at 88-92 and his mid 80s curveball. Klassen has not pitched deep into games and has already eclipsed his innings total from last year. While the Phillies have been cautious with him, his lack of full starters workload is making questions about him being a reliever louder. He is still a pitch or two short of a starter’s arsenal, but for now they have already done some of the hard work.
Trade Deadline Thoughts: Unless he is the deal breaker on a key deal I expect the Phillies to direct teams to other arms in the organization in actual trade talks.
What Has Changed: Klassen is throwing strikes, and he is thriving as a starting pitcher. He is sitting 96 to 98 and routinely touches 99, and holding the velocity into his starts while also showing a mature approach to pacing his velocity. His gyro cutter/slider is a plus or better pitch and when paired with his power curveball has allowed him to dominate low-A hitters. He had a minor injury, but has come back just as good as he was to start the year. Overall he has moved from definite reliever to potential mid rotation or better starter with a reliever fall back option.
Future Outlook: Klassen has not pushed 90 to 100 pitches or consistently 6+ innings, so there are some lingering workload questions. His command is still below average, and his promotion to Jersey Shore will be a good test on if he can continue to dial it in and get more experienced batters to continue to chase. There is still a lot of reliever risk because of his history, but there is no reason for the Phillies to not to continue to develop him as a starting pitcher.
Role: Late inning reliever
Risk: Extreme – Klassen walked 47 and struck out 49 in 56.2 innings at Minnesota as a starting pitcher. He did not pitch after signing, and while it is presumed he will move to the bullpen, that move has not been made official.
Summary: The Phillies in recent drafts have not been afraid of pitchers with poor control and poor results, but also big stuff. Klassen fits the same mold as Griff McGarry and Alex McFarlane in the past two drafts, but with even less track record of success. Klassen is short and slight, but he was reportedly high 90s, up to 101 with Minnesota in spring 2023. He throws a slider as well, and Baseball America reported that he also threw a cutter at the Draft Combine. Klassen slid all the way to the 6th round because his control was poor at best. His lack of control has him publicly earmarked to move to a bullpen role, where maybe some simplicity and lack of needing to turn a lineup over will lead to better control. The Phillies have not always followed conventional wisdom, so there is a chance he starts or long relieves, especially if they are reworking his delivery or arsenal.
2024 Outlook: Given he did not pitch in a game after the draft, it would be a surprise if he started anywhere other than Clearwater or the complex. Unless he moves to the bullpen and takes off, it is probably going to be slow moving for a while.
LHP Samuel Aldegheri
Summary: Aldegheri had his first healthy season last year and has gotten stronger and better with hard work over the offseason. He is sitting more 90-94 up to 95 with a 4-seam fastball (that he works up in the zone) and sinker. His slider is an above average pitch he can use for chases away to lefties or break it in on righty’s feet. His curveball is a below average pitch that is just a change of pace strike stealer. His changeup has improved, but is still not a real weapon yet, and his platoon splits show that righties hit him harder than lefties (he has yet to allow an XBH to a lefty). He will need his command and stuff to take another step forward to make him more than a back end starter, but he has been improving year over year.
Trade Deadline Thoughts: It isn’t that much different than Jean Cabrera. Aldegheri has value (and some teams will prefer his left handedness) and the Phillies cannot carry all of these pitchers through the next offseason. He could headline one of the mid tier moves that it seems like the Phillies are heading towards.
What Has Changed: Aldegheri is throwing harder and his slider and changeup look sharper. He is throwing more 90-93 getting to 94 and 95 with some regularity. His slider has been his best secondary pitch, and his .127/.211/.127 line against lefties shows its dominance. His changeup is flashing better, but he has had success vs righties with pounding sliders in and elevating his 4-seamer. The increase in velocity gets him into the place where you could see him sticking in a rotation. His command has had some games where it has been suboptimal, and he doesn’t paint the corners the way Ranger Suarez does. He will need to continue to refine hitting the edges and corners, and he will need to continue to build on the changeup so he doesn’t get exposed vs better right handed batters. Aldegheri is also one of the Phillies pitching prospects that is built up to work to 100 pitches per start.
Future Outlook: If Aldegheri puts together another few starts like his last few, he will be due for a promotion to Reading, which will test his ability to not get hit around by right handed batters. Aldegheri is also one to watch as we near the deadline. He is starting to creep closer to showing a higher ceiling, but for now looks more like a solid #4.
Role: #4 Starting Pitcher
Risk: Medium – For a pitcher who has not pitched above A-Ball, Aldegheri has a mature arsenal that looks like a back end starting pitcher now. The worry is that he will be more of a #5 or #6 if his arsenal slips or he is unable to execute his pitches at the higher levels.
Summary: Aldegheri signed back in 2019, and did not debut until 2021 and then barely pitched his first two years. Aldegheri was back healthy in 2023 and pitched pretty much the full year. He has a 5 pitch mix with his 4-seamer and sinker averaging about 92 and peaking at 94-95. He comes from a fairly high delivery and he gets good movement on the 4-seamer and can miss bats up in the air. His best secondary pitch is a mid 80s slider with two plane movement that he had a 42% whiff rate on with Clearwater. He will mix in a changeup that averaged 83 mph that is more average and keeps hitters off balance. His curveball in the high 70s is more big and loopy, and it is more of a show pitch that he used for called strikes. None of his pitches are plus, and his success is very reliant on keeping hitters off balance and not on overpowering them. He had a couple of starts where he struggled with walks, but for the most part he throws strikes and can locate his pitch to the parts of the zone where his pitches will have success. Aldegheri has a chance to move through the lower minors fairly quickly, and the real test will be in the upper minors and if hitters are able to square up his stuff in the zone.
2024 Outlook: Aldegheri made it to Jersey Shore last season and logged a career high number of innings. He likely starts there in 2024, and given that he will be Rule 5 eligible again this offseason, he likely gets pushed to Reading at some point.
I like the trade. Both guys were works in progress and not high end prospects. We drafted light on pitchers in the early rounds so org depth takes a hit, but the big club weapons are turning 30 and starting to get groin and hammy injuries so it’s win now. Utley and Howard lost their legs early and the Phils never recovered.
Thanks! This is informative. Do you think the Phils are done wrt the bullpen for the trade deadline?