We are now 12 weeks into the minor league season and 6 weeks before the trade deadline. With the FCL season over a month in, this year gives a good chance to have actual information on the breakouts already happening. Not all rankings changes may be as reflected in the actual number, as the tiers have widened and flattened, particularly between the top and bottom. In general, the system is arrow up, despite missing Painter for the year and a regression for Mick Abel, thanks to Aidan Miller’s emergence, Caba’s continued progression, and George Klassen launching through the system. I stuck to only the first few tiers of the organization for the numeric rankings to reflect that the granularity and constant shifting nature makes rankings lower to be subject to constant change. I hope to have notes on more in the next week. All previous rankings are for the preseason, and I have linked to the weekly and monthly recaps to give more snapshots and deeper dives where available.
To start, Aidan Miller has moved up to the same tier as Andrew Painter, and I would view both as at least top 30 prospects in baseball who have the talent to be top 10 prospects in the sport.
1. Andrew Painter, RHP
Preseason Rank: 1
What Has Changed: Nothing, Painter continues to progress on his rehab. Recently he began throwing off of at least a partial mound. Assuming he continues to progress without issue then he should be completing the standard rehab right about the end of the season.
Future Outlook: Painter still has the most upside of anyone in the system, and if he comes back healthy he should be a front of the rotation starter in the majors at some point in the 2025 when he will be just 22 years old.
2. Aidan Miller, SS
Preseason Rank: 3
What Has Changed: The most notable skill change has been that Miller has shown that he can handle shortstop. Circumstance and team need might move him off the position, but for now he looks like he can stick there. If he does have to move then it bodes well for his ability to handle second or third. At the plate, he has shown a great approach, good power, and good contact rates. His swing is cleaner after some offseason changes, and he hasn’t shown any concerning weaknesses at the plate.
Future Outlook: Miller has already been pushed to Jersey Shore and he probably will spend the rest of the season there. He looks like a middle of the order hitter who can stick at an up the middle position defensively, and that puts him just outside the top top prospects in baseball, but not far off.
Featured: April (Stock Steady), May (Stock Up)
With the movement of Miller up the list and some other players down, that leaves Caba in a group alone in what I would say is a top 50 to 75 prospect in baseball.
3. Starlyn Caba, SS
Preseason Rank: 4
What Has Changed: He has hit the ball a bit harder. Caba is striking out a bit more, but from observation a lot of that has been looking on close pitches. I have seen some peak exit velocities in the 105+ range, but mostly of the ball directly into the ground variety. There is enough raw strength to hint that there might be average-ish raw power in the long term. Otherwise, he is an advanced hitter who doesn’t pound the ball into ground and should ground into being a good hitter. He is very fast on the bases and cleaned up most of his early season baserunning issues. He is a great fielder who will occasionally make a bad play, but no one is worried about that part of his game.
Future Outlook: There was some thought that they might aggressively push him to Clearwater into Aidan Miller’s spot with the Threshers, but that might be more on pace with the early end of the FCL season. It would be good to see him drive the ball a few more times this year, but there aren’t a lot of questions that he needs to answer that he can answer in the second half. Whether he can hit for some power or not will determine if he is an All-Star type top of the order hitter or glove first regular in the bottom third of a lineup.
Featured: May (Stock Up)
The number in front of Mick Abel’s name has only dropped by 2 and the one in front of Crawford has not changed at all, but both of them have moved into more of the fringe top 100 prospect conversation alongside break out pitcher George Klassen and teenager Eduardo Tait.
4. Mick Abel, RHP
Preseason Rank: 2
What Has Changed: He has been a mess. Whatever delivery changes have been made have not worked yet, his arm looks late and he has missed up and arm side with an alarming number of his fastballs. His velocity has been down all season, and is only now starting to increase to near his 2023 levels. The Phillies have mostly shelved his secondary pitches, in a move likely aimed at trying to get the delivery back on track. That has hurt his results as Abel has become more of a kitchen sink type pitcher with his fastball able to do some work, but his slider and curveball being his two best pitches.
Future Outlook: Barring some sort of massive or unexpected change, it is fair to write-off any sort of front of the rotation upside for Abel. There is still a mid rotation arm in there somewhere, and his remade gyro slider looks like at least a plus pitch. He will turn 23 this summer, so he isn’t the youngest prospect, but also he isn’t fully formed either. He will need to show some improvements over the coming weeks and months to just show that he hasn’t lost everything that made him a top prospect.
Featured: April (Stock Down)
5. Justin Crawford, OF
Preseason Rank: 5
What Has Changed: Crawford is hitting the ball on the ground a bit less this season, but his quality of contact continues to have red flags. His swing looks slightly better, but his upper and lower half look disconnected and he is late on pitches (often hitting the ball the other way). As concerning is that he is walking less and striking out more, building on some concerning approach and chase rates with the Threshers.
Future Outlook: Crawford still has good raw tools, he is a plus plus runner, he is a good center field defender, and he makes hard contact. Everything about Crawford’s ceiling is still intact, it is just that the path has gotten even more shaky after there were already worrying signs.
Featured: April (Stock Steady), May (Stock Down), Week 3 (4/9-4/14)
6. George Klassen, RHP
Preseason Rank: 22
What Has Changed: Klassen is throwing strikes, and he is thriving as a starting pitcher. He is sitting 96 to 98 and routinely touches 99, and holding the velocity into his starts while also showing a mature approach to pacing his velocity. His gyro cutter/slider is a plus or better pitch and when paired with his power curveball has allowed him to dominate low-A hitters. He had a minor injury, but has come back just as good as he was to start the year. Overall he has moved from definite reliever to potential mid rotation or better starter with a reliever fall back option.
Future Outlook: Klassen has not pushed 90 to 100 pitches or consistently 6+ innings, so there are some lingering workload questions. His command is still below average, and his promotion to Jersey Shore will be a good test on if he can continue to dial it in and get more experienced batters to continue to chase. There is still a lot of reliever risk because of his history, but there is no reason for the Phillies to not to continue to develop him as a starting pitcher.
Featured: April (Stock Up), Week 2 (4/2-4/7)
7. Eduardo Tait, C
Preseason Rank: 7
What Has Changed: After a slow start, Tait has ramped up to the point that he has been on fire in June. He still has defensive struggles and some offensive holes. He has not yet had an extra base hit off of a lefty, and he can swing and miss at a high rate, despite keeping his strikeout rate reasonable. In many ways, he hasn’t changed much, but repeating much of his DSL performance in the FCL is a positive step.
Future Outlook: Tait will probably spend the rest of the season in the FCL. There is a chance that he gets some time with the Threshers at the end of the season. The catching defense is going to require repetitions, and it may take many years to get to where it needs to be. The biggest thing to look for in the second half will be whether he can continue the incremental growth in his approach at the plate. He probably will never be a good defensive catcher, but he can be a power first power bat.
Featured: May (Stock Steady)
From here to the end of the list is all one group, including some minors infielders, some FCL breakouts, pitchers across the org having good years, and some other familiar names. What it represents is some players sliding down, but there is a lot of the middle class of the Phillies ranked prospects that have had good seasons.
8. William Bergolla, 2B
Preseason Rank: 8
What Has Changed: The Phillies aggressively pushed Bergolla to Jersey Shore and it looked like a mistake at first. He hit .172/.210/.241 in April with an uncharacteristic walk and strikeout rate. However, he got his feet under him in May and has been on fire in June. He hit his first career home run and has twice as many extra base hits so far this year than in his career to this point. He still has strength and future power concerns, but he is starting to drive ball in a way that feels sustainable. He has moved full time to second base with shortstop as a secondary position.
Future Outlook: Bergolla puts the ball in play in the way you want, but he still needs to hit the ball harder to hold up as a future major leaguer. Second base has become less of a power position with shifting rules, so if he can get himself to 5-10 home run power and plus defense, he can be an everyday regular, especially since his approach and contact skills continue to be elite.
Featured: Week 11 (6/4-6/10)
9. Bryan Rincon, SS
Preseason Rank: 9
What Has Changed: Another slow start turned good May, Rincon looked passive at the plate in April and started driving the ball more in May. That bounce back was good because Rincon suffered a leg injury in the middle of May that will likely keep him out for most of the year.
Future Outlook: It is still unknown when Rincon will return from his injury. However, before his injury Rincon looked like a plus glove, ok bat shortstop. Depending on how ok the bat is, there is still a wide range of outcomes, but he has a chance to be an everyday regular.
Featured: May (Stock Steady), Week 6 (4/30-5/5)
10. Gabriel Rincones Jr., OF
Preseason Rank: 12
What Has Changed: Rincones only played 13 games this season, but they were a good 13 games. He has his limitations, he is going to struggle vs LHPs and he is going to strike out. What he needs to do is hit for power when he does make contact, and he did that in his small sample. He hurt his thumb, requiring surgery and his return date is currently unknown.
Future Outlook: Rincones is unlikely to be an everyday player, but he can be a strong side of a platoon corner outfielder who can generate enough value to give everyday regular value. Before the injury he was trending towards a chance at a 2024 debut, he looks now more to be a 2025 pace assuming he comes back fully healthy.
Featured: April (Stock Up)