As was expected for the last month the Phillies selected Wichita State 3B Alec Bohm after Casey Mize and Joey Bart went 1 and 2. Bohm is widely considered the best bat in the draft. The biggest concern around Bohm is his ability to stick at third base. He has improved over the years, but at 6’5″ there is concern that as he gets older and fills out he won’t be able to stay at the position. His bat plays at both third and first.
For a player with the raw power Bohm possesses, his approach has been excellent and has improved every year:
- 2016: 4.7% BB% 13.1% K%
- 2017: 10.9% BB% 11.7% K%
- 2018: 14.7% BB% 10.5% K%
Now most think that his strikeout rate will go up as he moves from a more contact oriented approach to one that taps into his plus plus raw power more, but Bohm has plenty of room to strikeout a bit more without it hurting him.
In addition to the approach, Bohm has a great track record with wood bats, he hit .330/.407/.552 in the Coastal Plain League, and the next year he hit .351/.399/.513 in the Cape Cod League. All of this together makes Bohm a good mix of safety and upside. Bohm’s ceiling is all-star third baseman hitting .280+ with 30+ home runs a year with plenty of walks.
Theoretically the Phillies could sign him for underslot, but he is perfectly fine as the #3 pick getting the #3 slot. He should move quickly and he could start in Lakewood like Scott Kingery did in 2015.
Some video:
https://twitter.com/HPJoker/status/1003779782788681729
https://twitter.com/HPJoker/status/1003780487951863808
Here is what other sites are saying around the internet:
Fangraphs (#5)
Bohm has a strong, wiry frame and, though it may take a swing tweak to unlock it’s full potential in games, he has among the best raw power and power projection in the entire draft. His swing is too contact-oriented. Many college programs emphsize contact-oriented swings because college defenses are bad and the bats allow you to hit for power anyway. Bohm would likely benefit, long-term, from a swing that better loads his hands to take advantage of his strength and that lets him extend his arms more. This would likely cost him some contact ability, but he has a 9% K rate this year due in part to surprising feel to hit, so there’s lots of room for more whiffs before they become an issue.
While currently athletic enough to stay at third, Bohm’s broad frame is likely to add some weight over the next few years, and he may have to move down the defensive spectrum. This, plus an projected swing change, mean more of Bohm’s profile exists in abstraction than is typical for this kind of college performer. The Phillies zeroed in on Bohm early in the spring and are the favorites to select him.
Baseball America (#7)
Bohm has been one of the most impressive college hitters in the 2018 draft class and has positioned himself to go early in the first round after several big performances in front of large groups of evaluators this spring. With a large, 6-foot-5, 240-pound frame, Bohm brings a vast amount of strength to the batter’s box, which helps provide some of the best raw power in the country. Bohm has gotten to that power frequently this spring, hitting .353/.464/.596 through his first 36 games with eight home runs and nine doubles. Perhaps more impressive than Bohm’s power output—he also hit 11 homers as a sophomore and six as a freshman—is his improved plate discipline this season. He’s cut his strikeout rate and significantly improved his walk rate, taking the free pass more frequently than striking out for the first time in his collegiate career. He has an exceptional understanding of the strike zone and always seem to have a plan when he steps in the batter’s box, with the ability to make adjustments within an at-bat. His loud spring comes on the heels of a summer in the Cape Cod League, where Bohm was selected to the all-star game and finished second in the league with a .351 average. Bohm has done as much as anyone in the 2018 class to prove himself with the bat, but where the questions will surface for him are on the defensive side. Some scouts think Bohm will eventually have to move to first base, while others believe his strong arm will be enough for him to stay at the hot corner.
ESPN (#5)
Bohm projects to hit for average and for power, with a simple swing that has the right angle to produce real power even with the wood bat. He has hit 15 homers this year and walked 38 times against 24 strikeouts while playing solid competition in the far-flung AAC. He’s a good athlete for a big kid and has plenty of arm for third base, but there’s a chance he outgrows the position in pro ball.
MLB Pipeline (#7)
Bohm has a strong, wiry frame and, though it may take a swing tweak to unlock it’s full potential in games, he has among the best raw power and power projection in the entire draft. His swing is too contact-oriented. Many college programs emphsize contact-oriented swings because college defenses are bad and the bats allow you to hit for power anyway. Bohm would likely benefit, long-term, from a swing that better loads his hands to take advantage of his strength and that lets him extend his arms more. This would likely cost him some contact ability, but he has a 9% K rate this year due in part to surprising feel to hit, so there’s lots of room for more whiffs before they become an issue.
While currently athletic enough to stay at third, Bohm’s broad frame is likely to add some weight over the next few years, and he may have to move down the defensive spectrum. This, plus an projected swing change, mean more of Bohm’s profile exists in abstraction than is typical for this kind of college performer. The Phillies zeroed in on Bohm early in the spring and are the favorites to select him.
Great work Matt with all of your draft coverage, thank you.