Phillies Minor League Monthly Retrospective – May 2025

Stock Changes

*Rankings are from Preseason Rankings / Statcast stats from Robert Orr’s website and MLBSavant

Stock Up

C Eduardo Tait (5) – It isn’t like Tait got off to a poor start, his OPS in April was higher than it was in May thanks to hitting for more power. However, there was an aggression at the plate in April that portended poor outcomes. He was chasing at a high rate and his zone contact rate was poor. However, starting in May, Tait has seen a sharp downtick in his chase rate, particularly on breaking balls. As pitchers continued to expand the zone we have seen Tait’s walk rate tick up without an increase in strikeout rate. He is swinging more in the zone, but has not quite put up the same power numbers he did at the beginning of the year. Defensively he still has work to do, but he has not done anything this season that would indicate that he can’t play catcher. Also it feels like at times it is important to remember he will still be 18 for another 2 months.

3B Carson DeMartini (13) – The knock on DeMartini through his pro debut and the start of the 2025 season was that he wasn’t hitting for power. It was especially worrying since his strikeout rate was up near his college rates and his contact rate was especially low. The strikeout rate has remained high since the end of April, but he also has 7 home runs and 7 other extra base hits in that span. DeMartini hits the ball in the air and to his pull side which bodes well for his future power potential. He was promoted to Reading this week which will free him from the shackles of the Jersey Shore ballpark, and into an offense aiding ballpark. Outside of the offense, DeMartini has been good defensively at third and surprisingly competent at shortstop. He also his stealing bases at a high rate, all of which paints the picture of a player who might be a bit more athletic and adept at the little things than previously expected. He isn’t trending as a star, but DeMartini might be an average regular either for the Phillies or as an interesting trade chip.

OF Hendry Mendez (19) – Mendez has been a bit of a mystery box since coming over in the Oliver Dunn trade. His walk and strikeout rates have always been excellent, and his exit velocity numbers have all been perfectly fine. The problem is he never not had an ugly swing that smashed the ball into the ground. This year his ground ball rate is a totally reasonable 51.9% with a swing that is flatter and more under control through the zone. His walk (11.1%) and strikeout (13.0%) rates continue to be excellent. He had 6 doubles in April, but he turned that into 4 doubles and 4 home runs in May. Mendez is not a good fielder or runner on the bases, so his bat will be his path to a major league feature. He still needs to get the ball in the air more and has historically struggled against lefties. However, he looks to actually be showing a growth path towards being a major league hitter.

Stock Down

RHP Casey Steward (43) – It isn’t fair to say Steward’s stock is down from the offseason, but in the Spring Breakout he was 97-98 with great looking breaking balls and looked poised for a big time breakout. Now in repeating Jersey Shore he has an ERA over 5.00 and while his walk rate is technically down from his previous stint as a BlueClaw it is still 4.9 per 9. He has been great at home, thanks to hit and home run suppression, but he has equally poor command home and away, and the strikeout rate is rather pedestrian. His velocity has been more towards 2024 with his fastball sitting more 92-96 and his breaking balls less dynamic. Even if he gets in the zone more, he is going to struggle with contact quality unless the stuff ticks back up again. It is probably worth letting him work through things for the rest of the season, but based on that one game this spring, maybe he isn’t a breakout starting pitcher, and rather should be in a bullpen.

2B/OF Dylan Campbell (UR*) – Knowing whether trading international money for Dylan Campbell depends on information we don’t know about the Phillies plans and the international market. Through the first few weeks of the season, Campbell was making a compelling case with his bat, but that has dropped off strongly. He ended up hitting .173 through April and then .184 in May. June has looked better so far, but his walk and strikeout numbers continue to not be great. He is a pull heavy fly ball hitter, and his home park is doing him no favors, but he also isn’t excelling on the road. On the positive side, he has looked playable at second base, and the 2B/OF defensive split has value. He has also hit LHPs well in a small sample size, and being a platoon hitter really is not the worst outcome.

SS Bryan Rincon (16) –  It was easy to look at Rincon’s struggles in 2024 and talk about small sample sizes and injuries. He now has nearly 50 games with the BlueClaws this year and has an OPS under .600. He has not faced many lefties, but has been a disaster when he has, while being more just poor against righties. Some of the problem is definitely his passive approach, as his contact numbers don’t support his large strikeout rate on their own. The problem is then that we haven’t really seen him do damage when he has swung since he was in Clearwater in 2023. Rincon is a good defensive shortstop, but he isn’t a wizard at the position, which means he is going to need to hit some. Unless something turns around quickly, we are likely to see him slide completely out of conversations about notable Phillies prospects.

Mixed

SS Aidan Miller (2) – On the surface, May was a much better month for Miller, he hit .284 and had a .795 OPS, both well above his April marks. What has been a continued trend is his strikeout rate. He now is at an enormous 26.9%, well above the rest of his time in pro ball. The thing is, his contact% (we don’t have zone or not publicly for AA) is the same as it was with the BlueClaws last year, and his swinging strike% is lower than it was last year. The problem is the swinging, or lack there of. After swinging at an already low rate of 41.9% last year, Miller is at 38.9% this year, which is on part with Schwarber, Marchan, and Stott on the Phillies which shows sort of the perils of that calculus. Miller is having strikes called at a high rate than any in his career, and that both has put him behind in counts and led to the increasing strikeout rate itself. It is one thing to be patient if you have huge power (Soto, Ozuna, and Schwarber are examples of this philosophy), but Miller has good power, not elite power, and you can see in a player like Stott that hitting from behind in the count can lead to a lot of power contact quality. The hope is that Miller is just off on the mental adjustment and just needs to think about hunting his pitch more. The bigger worry is that his pitch recognition may not be great and he is not recognizing strikes out of the hand or is caught passively in between approaches. He is still very talented, so hopefully this is just him in AA in his second year struggles. Defensively, Miller has not been as clean as you might want. It isn’t going to reignite conversations about a position change, but he still has work to do.

RHP Alex McFarlane (17) – Much like Casey Steward, McFarlane’s hype came off of one inning in the Spring Breakout. Unlike Steward, McFarlane went on a 4 start run from April 23 to May 15 where he was 92-97 with a three pitch mix and good control. Things then came apart for 3 starts, before his last was fine. On some level we have to reckon with this being a first year back from surgery for McFarlane, but he is also Rule 5 eligible this offseason, and his arm strength is going to make him a target for some team. Four weeks ago I would have said he should continue to start and probably was becoming quite a trade target. Now I wonder if the Phillies really need to be again thinking of him as a reliever, even if that is a 2026 plan. The key before the injury was control, and that continues to be where his whole future hinges.

*Campbell was acquired after the list and would have ranked in the 20s

Monthly Stat Leaders

Hitting

Pitching

Mailbag

If you want to send questions, you can ask me on Bluesky, in the comments here, or I will put an email address in a future weekly column.

@crapface.bsky.social: Is it realistic to think that this team’s farm system can extend their window beyond Harper’s/Schwarber’s/Turner’s primes? Obviously they’ll spend on free agents too, but is there enough talent on the way to supplement any external additions and keep them relevant beyond the next year or two?

Yes, and a lot of that sits on Andrew Painter’s shoulders. The Phillies probably will need to extend Jesus Luzardo, but if they do, you have Painter, Sanchez, Luzardo, and whatever Nola can give you as a really good base to continue to build. You still probably need 2 of Tait, Miller, Crawford, and Escobar to be long term pieces or the key to a trade that brings back such a piece. But it comes back to the pitching, especially what is already in the majors that will keep the window from having to exist.

@papergreat.bsky.social: Last 3 weeks have muddled SP situation: Luzardo struggles, Suarez is best trade chip but looks like a bulldog you want for October, Abel intriguing 2 starts, Nola in limbo, Walker now a short reliever, Painter probably 6+ weeks away. The impossible Q: Who’s your October Top 4 and who’s in bullpen?

They will only need 3 for some of it, but I think I would go Wheeler, Sanchez, and Nola as my rotation with Suarez being in more of a fireman role, Painter as a multi inning bridge, and Luzardo likely in some late innings. Abel probably more of a 1-2 inning guy if still here. The reason for Nola in the rotation is that he has done it before and is unlikely to be as effective as a reliever as some of the other options. My guess for a 4th starter is that you go to some sort of ”bullpen” game that is actually a collection of which starters have not thrown much recently.

@chrislemmmo15.bsky.social: With Chace out with TJ and Abel possibly graduating prospect status in the next few weeks it feels like the system is suddenly much thinner pitching wise (especially in the lower levels). Have you noticed any arms taking a step forward or of interest below AA?

It is much weaker. In the spring it looked like Steward and McFarlane were stepping up, but as written above that has not happened. The biggest step forward has probably been Brad Pacheco, but that has been more of a standout than a pattern. A lot of this can be attributable to not putting talent into the system and injuries.

@eanasir.bsky.social: How useful are counting stats in a post-minor league contraction era? It’s tough to get excited about any AAA league hitter with the Buddy Kennedys of the world tearing things up, but I also dislike relying purely on eye-test stuff to know when to get excited.

They are really not helpful for projecting forward because of the quality of competition. More and more it has become about looking at micro and small sample size stats to look at things that might appear in the majors. This is why there has been a focus on things like z-contact (contact % of swings in the zone), chase rate, 90th percentile exit velocity, swing and miss against certain types of pitches, and other distributions of those things. It is why you see critiques of Crawford or Kemp that seem contrary to the triple slash lines. In many ways it is doing advance scouting that we have long seen in the majors where teams are looking for and exploiting weaknesses, but on minor league batters for their MLB future.

@lukeh1234.bsky.social: Any fun trade ideas for the deadline? Can Dave go the platoon route with undervalued or struggling players that typically have a decent to good slash line and underlying metrics? Maybe McMahon or along that caliber of player that might be a buy-low? Sorry loaded question

One of the problems is a lot of fun trade ideas for guys I think are undervalued often involve bad teams weirdly valuing their own players (see McMahon, who I personally don’t think is fun, but that is a different point). The bad teams are also pretty bad this year. Not a platoon player, but they liked Seth Halvorsen enough to draft him, and he just feels like a “we could fix him” type arm, but once again would the Rockies make a trade.

@lukeh1234.bsky.social: Who is your favorite hitter in the system based on short term production but also long term projection?

My favorite hitters tend to be the top prospects, which is sort of boring to say I like Aidan Miller, Aroon Escobar, or Eduardo Tait. So going a bit away from the question, my two favorite hitting prospects to watch are probably Alirio Ferrebus and Felix Reyes. Ferrebus has struggled since being promoted, but it is a great looking right handed swing with hard contact. In the complex he took a really professional at bat. Reyes is the opposite. He swings early and often with a swing that is great looking due to its sheer violence. Reyes hits the ball as hard as anyone in the system and does that while maintaining a high level of contact. Ferrebus is a rising prospect because he is young and might stick behind the plate. Reyes is positionless (he has played 1B/3B/LF/RF) and older, and his approach is a red flag likely to be exploited by good pitchers. He is less of a prospect, but he is interesting to me.

@melkasinkas.bsky.social: JT seems cooked but there doesn’t seem to be better options available after this season and pitching staff loves him. Do you think he gets resigned?

I think at this point the ideal would be to move on after the year, but I don’t think there is actually a better option out there that won’t cost a bunch. That means there is probably a good chance there is a new deal after the year, hopefully just short term.

@melkasinkas.bsky.social: What’s the plan for the OF at the deadline or in future. I’m thinking through the Wheeler timeline. I’m down on Crawford. I’m biased and love Casty but he’s been avg Offensively and bad defensively and a FA after 2026

At least one of the outfield corners is going to have to come from outside the org. Obviously Kyle Tucker would be a great fit, I don’t know if they can afford him. But through trade or free agency they need to find an everyday, middle of the lineup, corner outfield bat. Center field, I think it is either going to be Crawford or someone they trade Crawford for, and I just don’t see that player out there. I just think they like him enough that he is going to eventually get time to try and make it work. The other corner feels like where you are creative or save some money. It is ok to run a platoon, and whether that is Marsh or a new version of Kepler, it is fine to make an outfield spot in aggregate, assuming you take care of the other for the post Castellanos future.

@themajestikmoose.bsky.social: Is this the beginning of the end with Bryce

I don’t think we are near the end for Bryce, but we are possibly nearing the point where he is not a superstar year over year for 162 games a year. The nagging injuries are piling up and that is probably not going to stop. It doesn’t mean he doesn’t have a MVP worthy year left either. It just means that we aren’t at the end, just he can’t drag them across the line every year.

@tweetinit.bsky.social: The top level prospects draw the most attention in trades, but we’ve seen mid-level prospects often be the ones to actually get impact deals done. Are the Phillies in a position with their mid-level prospects to actually make a deal(s) to impact the big club THIS year?

The answer is yes, but it isn’t a large pool. To me there are 7 prospects who are “top” prospects in Painter, Miller, Tait, Escobar, Abel, Crawford, and DeMartini. I think Abel and DeMartini are the two most likely to move in a deal to me. After that it is going to be more of a beauty in the eye of the beholder. I don’t think Saltiban, Rincones, McFarlane, Cabrera, Ferrebus, Mendez, Anthony, Kemp, Steward, etc are going to appeal to all teams, but if the Phillies are shopping for a non-closer reliever, platoon hitter, or something else then there is probably a player that works. I do think Dante Nori and Griffin Burkholder likely stand alone. They aren’t going to be untouchable, but given their age and pedigree it feels unlikely that the Phillies will sell low on either.

@akhil-is-mad.bsky.social: why do you think a lot of the pitchers moving up in level from last year have struggled so much with command and just in general so far this year? (mainly graves and jean cabrera)

Promotions are tough and spring in the Northeast is unpleasant. The Phillies pitching prospects are not particularly great in their lower tiers, and that means that they aren’t just overwhelming with stuff in the zone. Cabrera has already stabilized his season, and he has the command and pitch mix to keep AA hitters off balance when they chase less. Part of the appeal of Graves is the age and projectability, and his stuff has not taken a step forward. He succeeded in Clearwater with two poor fastballs by having a host of good secondary pitches and hitters have not expanded the zone. I think the best explanation is that they just aren’t that good of prospects and those guys can struggle as they move up.

@wheelerdeals.bsky.social: With the Phillies current outfield situation, does a rushed call up for an outfield prospect seem likely, or is this something that’s more likely they weather until the trade deadline? Is there any indication Crawford might be on his way?

There has been chatter in some places that Crawford was nearing a callup, but then got hurt. I have made my opinions clear on my thoughts about his readiness, but I think it goes to your question and even the time that has passed since it was asked. Max Kepler showed a bunch of life over the last week, and it is cliche and simple, but the best LF outcome is just Max Kepler playing well. There does not seem to be optimism that Otto Kemp can handle LF, but once Harper is back they probably have to see if he can be better platoon partner than Wilson. As for Crawford directly, Brandon Marsh has hit very well since coming back from his IL reset. Unless another month long slump comes for Kepler or Marsh, it seems unlikely that Crawford or Rincones is nearing a call up without an injury. Ultimately the right handed side of the platoons is the problem that the Phillies are trying to solve at the deadline.

@asoscia55.bsky.social: Hey Matt, I wanted to ask you this because no one really talks about it and am curious but what was the rationale behind trading Erik Miller. Is it a hindsight bet now that’s it’s in the past. I know nothing is linear but feel like having Erik Miller would have fixed things

Stealing a bit from the answer I gave online because I missed this was a mailbag question.

The calculus at the time was that he was injury prone, could not pitch back to back days, had poor control, would not help them that year (2023), and that no one wanted him the R5 draft. They were correct in many of those things (ignore the ERA and look at his BB:K). However, that is only half the trade, and while Yunior Marte showed flashes he probably was not the best piece to cash Miller in on. Ultimately they lost that trade and I think their obsession with having the full 40 man be ready to help the major league team was a boon at times during those years, they are missing some real depth because those were the guys they prioritized moving.

@frankvisco.bsky.social: At what point do you move on from Stott as an everyday guy? This is not just a bad year — he’s nearly 2000 plate appearances in to a 90 OPS+ career. And if you pull out 2023, its a sub 85 OPS+. He has no slugging ability at all.

He hasn’t entirely been an everyday guy already as he is functionally in a platoon not called a platoon. However, I think you have a serious conversation heading into the offseason about where he is in your future. Eventually Turner is going to need to move off short, do you talk about moving him to 2B in prep for Miller. Or do you see if Miller can handle 2B in addition to SS? I agree that right now this looks like what Stott is, and while the glove is good he just is not the offensive player you need.