Prospect rankings are kind of useless without context. What is the actual difference between Matt Vierling (19) and Bailey Falter (10) and is it as big a gap as there is from Mick Abel (1) to Falter? (The answer is the gap between Falter and Vierling is incredibly tiny while there is a giant gap from Abel to Falter). Then there are the young players in the league. Nick Maton isn’t on the prospect list due to service time, but he is very much a prospect. Lastly how does this fit into the trade talks, which gets a bit into my ranking philosophy and biases, because ultimately what is a prospect ranking but a trade preference list.
No reason not to start with combining the first two things on the list tiers and 25 and under. I still have minor preferences so I will be inserting the players into an order in the rankings as to where they would rank by number if they were eligible.
Tier 1: Potential Star
Mick Abel (1)
Abel has not been fully unleashed, but he looks exactly what you want a young ace to look like.
Tier 2: The Shine is Off
Alec Bohm, Spencer Howard
Both would be Top 100 prospects if they were eligible, but Bohm’s sudden inability to hit fastballs right down the middle coupled with a complete absence of power makes the known defensive issues a huge problem. Howard has had a litany of excuses, some legitimate, others strange, but ultimately is failing to hold the velocity that made him a top prospect. His circumstances have been the exact opposite of ideal, so it is too early to right it all off.
Tier 3: Flawed, but Good Players
Andrew Painter (2), Johan Rojas (3), Francisco Morales (4), Bryson Stott (5), Ethan Wilson (6)
There is an argument to be made that Painter actually should be with Bohm and Howard, but he is still a high school pitcher who has yet to throw a pro pitch. The other 4 have some major questions and current flaws that may keep them from being impact major leaguers, but they all have other attributes that lead to solid likelihood that they can be big league contributors.
Tier 3.1: Just Kind of Weird and It Works, but Don’t Question too Much
Ranger Suarez
Suarez is a sinker-changeup reliever with a solid slider and the skillset of a back end starter. He is throwing harder in a relief role and his command is good enough that he rarely makes mistakes. If they were to pull him out of the bullpen he probably is a good #4 starter, but at the same time he is proving he can be a bulk innings reliever who can also handle high leverage. He is valuable to a major league team, but his resulting cumulative value is suppressed by role and skillset.
Tier 4: Upside and a Long Way Away
Yhoswar Garcia (7), Luis Garcia (8), Erik Miller (9)
Whether it is injuries, youth, physical development needed, missed time, or some other reason there is too much risk in this trio to put them in Tier 3. A good and healthy end of the season could see any of them as top 5 prospects in the system.
Tier 5: Everyday players, but…
Bailey Falter (10), Rafael Marchan (11), Nick Maton, Mickey Moniak (12), Logan O’Hoppe (13), Jhailyn Ortiz (14), Simon Muzziotti (15), Micah Ottenbreit (16), Dominic Pipkin (17), Casey Martin (18), Matt Vierling (19)
In every single one of these writeups it sounds glowing, there are major league tools and a major league role, and then a giant “BUT” comes along with some sort of potentially fatal flaw in the plan. Some of these players will fail, some will be on a bench, and maybe a few will go on to have solid major league careers starting for playoff caliber teams. If I knew which group they would fall into, they wouldn’t be ranked here.
Tier 6: Bench Players and Far Away Dreams
Luke Williams, Adam Haseley, Daniel Brito (20), Cristopher Sanchez (21), JoJo Romero, Kendall Simmons (22), Jamari Baylor (23), Jordan Viars (24), Andrick Nava (25), Rickardo Perez (26), Yemal Flores (27), Christian McGowan (28), Eduar Segovia (29), Cristian Hernandez (30), Abrahan Gutierrez (31), Gunner Mayer (32), Jordi Martinez (33), Jose Pena Jr. (34), Starlyn Castillo (35), Adonis Medina (36), Griff McGarry (37), Jadiel Sanchez (38)
A big old tier of players in the high minors with flaws that make them a non-closer/elite high leverage reliever or a solid bench player, or those players that are far away and have to tool to be everyday contributors, but there is a lot of development before that happens.
Trade Thoughts
The tiers above nicely break things down and once you remove the draftees that can’t be traded things drop into place. Mick Abel is someone you don’t trade unless it is as the center piece of a deal that brings you back an impactful core piece with years of control. Those tier 3 and 4 players (Garcias, Miller, Rojas, Stott, Morales) are prospects you only want to trade for a good player with control or impact rental, and really the Phillies shouldn’t be shopping for an impact rental. You probably need to give up someone here in a Kimbrel trade for instance. It is possible that is a non-starter, and that is fine where the Phillies are. I think of the next group it is all about not selling low. If someone doesn’t want to meet you on Ortiz in this group, don’t move Ortiz. But these are the guys that can get you a good rental or maybe a solid, but unspectacular regular type with 2 years of control. Given major league needs and depth, Rafael Marchan, Mickey Moniak, Matt Vierling, and probably Dominic Pipkin are the more priority trade candidates here. Everything else in the org is just don’t undersell or overbuy, and don’t plunder it all. Sure some of the low minors pitchers may be good, but they already have a high enough rate of attrition that if you can spend one or two to improve your chances this year, you do it.