To me there is a distinct top 16 prospects in the system and what feels like a drop off in the late 20s. In between those two groups is an interesting set of players. It includes some injured players, some breakouts with questions, and some very flawed players that are one major developmental gain away from a breakout. In the past I might have referred to this range as purgatory, but it might actually be the place with some of the more interesting conversations relevant to the future of the organization.
All Ages are as of Opening Day (3/27/25)
17. Alex McFarlane, RHP
Age: 23 (6/9/01)
Acquired: Drafted in the 4th Round of the 2022 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’4” 230lbs
2024 Stats: Did not appear in a game in 2024
Role: 7th/8th Inning Reliever
Risk: Extreme – McFarlane had Tommy John surgery in late 2023 and had been throwing to hitters as various camp activities ended, but there are no reports on where his stuff is. Before the injury, McFarlane was already showing control issues.
Summary: McFarlane is one of the Phillies big stuff, low control college arms they have taken over the last few drafts. In college, McFarlane struggled in the rotation and was widely considered to be a future reliever. The Phillies started him out of the rotation in 2023, and his stuff had jumped, with his fastball touching 100 and routinely sitting high 90s. His velocity then decreased over the course of the season, and then injuries and more struggles marked the rest of the season, before he had to have Tommy John surgery in the fall. He spent all of 2024 in the rehab program in the complex, progressing to live batting practice by the end of the year. At his best, McFarlane throws a high 90s fastball with natural sinker movement, leaving his 4-seam fastball more deadzone, but his sinker should be a good weapon. His mid 80s slider was one of the most dominant pitches in the Phillies system in 2023, and in both his fastball and breaking ball he has very high spin rates. He also mixed in a changeup that tunneled off his fastball with heavy armside movement. McFarlane’s control was poor in college and in the minors, and it makes sense for him to work as a reliever where he can rely on his stuff over pacing. McFarlane will be Rule 5 eligible after the season, which could accelerate the Phillies aligning his role with his timeline.
2025 Outlook: When and how much McFarlane pitches will depend on what role the Phillies use him in. As a reliever he could start in Jersey Shore and move quickly, though likely operating with extra rest. As a starting pitcher, he could start later and then ramp up slowly.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: 21
*Steve Potter reported that Christian McGowan had labrum surgery after this was written. I wish Christian a healthy recovery, he obviously would rank differently on the list had that information been known.
18. Christian McGowan, RHP
Age: 25 (3/7/00)
Acquired: Drafted in the 7th Round of the 2021 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’3” 205lbs
2024 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI (FCL) | 2 | 1 | 0-0 | 3.0 | 0.00 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 10.0% | 40.0% |
| CLW (A-) | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 3.0 | 0.00 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 8.3% | 33.3% |
| REA (AA) | 11 | 9 | 0-4 | 34.1 | 6.29 | 10.0 | 1.6 | 12.6% | 23.4% |
| Glendale (AFL) | 5 | 2 | 2-1 | 15.2 | 4.60 | 13.2 | 0.0 | 11.4% | 13.9% |
| Total | 19 | 13 | 2-5 | 56.0 | 5.14 | 10.3 | 1.0 | 12.0% | 20.9% |
Role: Multi Inning Reliever
Risk: Medium – McGowan is starting to accumulate a number of innings in the high minors, and while starting has not worked out, there is a path for it to work in the bullpen.
Summary: McGowan is a solidly built, but short, right handed starter with an arsenal that would have looked better a decade ago. McGowan missed most of 2022 and 2023 due to Tommy John surgery, and was unhealthy in 2024 as well, only getting 55.2 innings across the regular season and a return trip to the AFL. He primarily throws a sinker, and he was able to show a bit more movement on it, but it is a pitch that does not miss bats despite reaching up to 97. His high 80s changeup is probably his best pitch as he kills the spin on it for good fade. He manipulates his slider shapes heavily from sweeper to cutter, with the cutter being more in the zone and the sweeper for chases. He should probably separate them into more distinct pitches to avoid some of the middle bleed. While that sounds like a starting pitching arsenal, McGowan has struggled both with his control and to hold velocity deeper into starts. He should still be able to pitch multiple innings as a reliever, and the short bursts would let him sit at the upper end of his velocity range.
2025 Outlook: McGowan probably gets another few months to start, but if he struggles and the other starters provide adequate depth, the Phillies may take a look at him in short bursts.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: 10
19. Hendry Mendez, OF
Age: 21 (11/7/03)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Brewers in 2021. Traded to the Phillies with Robert Moore for Oliver Dunn in November 2023.
B/T: L/L
H/W: 6’3” 175lbs
2024 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JS (A+) | 90 | 373 | 3 | 3 | 13.9% | 13.9% | .284 | .386 | .391 |
Role: Second Division Regular
Risk: High – Mendez’s swing is a real mess leading to poor contact, but *gestures at everything else* is pretty good.
Summary: Mendez fills out a uniform well, has plus raw power (104.6 mph 90th percentile and 111 mph max this year according to Baseball America), has very low chase rates, and very good contact rates. He walked as many times as he struck out (13.9%) as a 20 year old in low-A. He hits the ball on the ground too much, like many Phillies hitting prospects, which limits his game power. Your initial thought would be that he has some swing and timing improvements to make, and for that you would be mostly right. Mendez’s swing is a mess, it consists almost entirely of his arms so he is rarely on time, on plane, or hitting with much force behind the ball. When he does engage his hips, they are often disjointed leading to more timing issues. Much like Justin Crawford, he is at his best on pitches inside because the swing path means he must engage everything in a way that allows him to get some thump. Right now, the whole thing is completely unworkable, but there are enough other things going on that if the Phillies do fix it, he could be a very interesting hitter. On defense he is a slightly negative corner outfield defender, which means that he needs to produce offensively.
2025 Outlook: Mendez will go to AA where the park should be advantageous for power if he can get his swing in a place where he can elevate the ball. He is only 21, so it would not be a bad thing if he spent the whole year at AA.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: 34
20. Brad Pacheco, RHP
Age: 19 (6/9/05)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in 2023
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’0” 190lbs
2024 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHR (DSL) | 5 | 5 | 1-0 | 17.0 | 1.59 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 4.8% | 36.5% |
Role: #4 Statrer
Risk: Extreme – Pacheco has pitched 17 innings of pro ball in addition to some unofficial games the last two seasons. They were a good 17 innings, but he has the normal warts of a complex level pitcher and has solid, but not overwhelming stuff.
Summary: Injuries kept Pacheco off a mound all of last season and delayed his pro debut until July 19 of 2024. He is solid, so despite his short stature, he looks like a starting pitcher. He mostly repeats his delivery well, coming from a three quarters slot. His fastball comes out easy and looks to have good ride on it, sitting mostly 91 to 94 and touching 95. He has a big breaking curveball that is at its best in the upper 70s, and upper minors hitters will likely get less fooled on the big loopy ones.. His changeup is a work in progress, he will throw some firm ones with little movement and separation, but will flash some good armside fade and feel for the pitch. He is a strong candidate down the road for the Phillies’ full suite of extra pitches, including a distinct sinker and some sort of east-west breaking ball. His command can be a bit spotty and he will miss high and armside with all of his pitches, and despite the movement profile, he looks more comfortable spotting his fastball down in the zone. Really, Pacheco is a good foundation on which to build an interesting pitcher, and he has shown good potential in his small sample size.
2025 Outlook: Pacheco will move stateside next season, and given the new FCL schedule he could pitch in the FCL to open the year and finish in the Florida State League if he has the innings left.
ETA: 2029
Previous Rank: UR
21. TJayy Walton, OF
Age: 20 (1/29/05)
Acquired: Drafted in the 4th Round of the 2023 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’3” 225lbs
2024 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI (FCL) | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 35.7% | .154 | .214 | .154 |
| CLW (A-) | 36 | 145 | 3 | 7 | 13.1% | 31.7% | .200 | .331 | .330 |
| Total | 40 | 159 | 3 | 7 | 11.9 | 32.1 | .195 | .321 | .316 |
Role: Everyday Regular
Risk: Extreme – Walton has worrying zone contact rates, whiffs vs offspeed pitches, and chase rates. He also played in 40 games, all of which seemed to never be in sustained healthy stretches.
Summary: There is no real way to view Walton’s 2024 season as a success. When he was on the field, he showed plus or better raw power (max exit velocity 112 mph) and had a couple of games where it looked like he was about to break out. He also was barely on the field for multiple weeks in a row, as leg injuries recurred all year. Whether it was part of never having a rhythm, or the harbinger of bad things to come, he had concerning contact issues. He had one of the lowest zone contact rates in the Florida State League while whiffing on secondary pitches more than league average. He was good at swinging at the right pitches, but swung at a lot of other pitches as well. It is probably fair to write some of the year off for Walton, but he will need to show that it was a one year blip early in 2025 to rebuild his prospect status.
2025 Outlook: There is probably a scenario where Walton has a great camp and goes to Jersey Shore, but it is more likely he goes back to Clearwater to get his feet under him.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: 17
22. Wen-Hui Pan, RHP
Age: 22 (9/19/02)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in 2023
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’3” 220lbs
2024 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI (FCL | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 1.0 | 9.00 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| CLW (A-) | 3 | 3 | 0-1 | 7.1 | 3.68 | 7.4 | 0.0 | 6.5% | 38.7% |
| JS (A+) | 14 | 1 | 0-1 | 21.0 | 1.29 | 5.6 | 0.0 | 8.5% | 26.8% |
| Total | 18 | 5 | 0-2 | 29.1 | 2.15 | 6.8 | 0 | 7.5% | 29.2% |
Role: 7th Inning Reliever
Risk: High – Pan will miss all of 2025 due to Tommy John surgery, and was behind on development already this season.
Summary: Pan missed the start of the 2024 season with a broken bone in his hand. Rather than stretch him out, the Phillies used him as a multi inning reliever. He has limited his diverse offspeed arsenal to gyro slider and splitter, with only the occasional curveball. He showed he could throw the slider in the upper 80s, and he will need to throw it hard to be an effective pitch. His splitter is still his best pitch, and he will likely throw it often in the long term. His fastball velocity will sometimes drop, but at his best he will sit 95-99. It doesn’t have great movement, so maintaining the higher velocity will be important. For the most part his control has improved this year. Unfortunately all of his progress will have to go on hold as he had pain after arriving in the Arizona Fall League, and ultimately had to have Tommy John surgery.
2025 Outlook: Pan will miss all of 2025 while he recovers from surgery. His timeline means that he likely won’t appear in any formal game settings.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: 14
23. Otto Kemp, IF
Age: 25 (9/9/99)
Acquired: Signed as an Undrafted Free Agent by the Phillies in 2022
B/T: R/R
H/W: 5’11” 185lbs
2024 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLW (A-) | 5 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 15.0% | 15.0% | .500 | .650 | 1.000 |
| JS (A+) | 41 | 182 | 4 | 8 | 11.5% | 15.9% | .333 | .440 | .533 |
| REA (AA) | 64 | 273 | 11 | 9 | 8.4% | 22.7% | .258 | .353 | .476 |
| LHV (AAA) | 13 | 54 | 0 | 1 | 9.3% | 33.3% | .200 | .333 | .244 |
| Glendale (AFL) | 15 | 63 | 6 | 1 | 17.5% | 23.8% | .289 | .460 | .733 |
| Total | 138 | 592 | 22 | 21 | 10.6% | 21.5% | .285 | .368 | .511 |
Role: Corner Infield/Outfield Bench Bat
Risk: Medium – Kemp has more positions listed than he should really play, but he should have enough positional flexibility for a MLB bench. The question is his offense, as he has tapped into his power more, but he has always had more swing and miss vs secondary pitches than would be ideal.
Summary: In his first two pro years Kemp showed intriguing raw power, but had mostly hit line drives and not gotten over the fence. This season, he was able to elevate the ball more and hit 22 home runs between the regular season and the AFL. The power isn’t a mirage either. In the AFL he had an average exit velocity of 94.7 mph, a max of 115.8 mph, and a 90th percentile of 108.4 mph, all of which indicate plus plus raw power. He has generally been a patient hitter, with average in zone contact rates, but a susceptibility to offspeed pitches. It is a fair worry that he has feasted on inferior pitching. He didn’t really have a large enough sample to say whether he will be more of a platoon bat or not. Defensively he has primarily been a second and third baseman, but second has always been more of a stretch, and he is just ok at third. He has started getting time at first base and in left and right field. Being playable in the outfield will be important for his future career, and it looks like it should be possible. There is room for a right handed bat that can play all 4 corners, and stand at second in an emergency, on a modern MLB bench.
2025 Outlook: Kemp will go to AAA where he should be in line for a call up if the Phillies have an injury. He will need to go on the 40 man roster after the season, and he projects to be a home grown version of players like Kody Clemens, Weston Wilson, and Buddy Kennedy.
ETA: 2025
Previous Rank: UR
24. Michael Mercado, RHP
Age: 25 (4/15/99)
Acquired: Drafted in the 2nd round of the 2017 draft by the Rays. Traded to the Phillies for Adam Leverett in November 2023.
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’4” 205lbs
2024 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LHV (AAA) | 32 | 10 | 3-1 | 69.2 | 2.07 | 6.6 | 0.5 | 12.2% | 22.3% |
| PHI (MLB) | 5 | 2 | 1-2 | 13.0 | 11.08 | 11.1 | 6.2 | 14.1% | 15.6% |
Role: Multi Inning Middle Reliever
Risk: Medium – Mercado didn’t pitch as a reliever for much of last year, and hasn’t really had an extended stretch of just letting his stuff fly in a short stint.
Summary: In Spring Training, the Phillies had Mercado pitching exclusively as a reliever, and he was sitting 96-98, touching 99. With his 4 pitch mix and their lack of starting pitching depth, they then started to stretch him out in AAA, and he was pitching up to 6 innings and even made 3 “starts” in the majors to 1 good and 2 poor results. His fastball velocity was down 1-2 mph as a starter, but he was able to hold it into his starts, but he had generally poor results with the pitch. His big curveball fooled fewer batters as the season went on. His cutter was his most successful pitch in AAA, and his changeup saw improvement all year. His command suffered all season, and he struggled with opposing batters not chasing and working deep counts. With the Phillies acquiring and developing much more starting pitching depth, he should return full time to the bullpen. In that role he should add a little more velocity, and he should throw his fastball a little less while using his offspeed more. His arsenal should lend itself to facing both righties and lefties in a multi inning role.
2025 Outlook: Mercado will probably compete for the last bullpen spot this spring and then go to AAA as call up depth. The Phillies will likely be looking for another reliable reliever all year, and if his stuff ticks up, then Mercado could quickly find himself with a major league role.
ETA: 2024
Previous Rank: 31
25. Keaton Anthony, 1B
Age: 23 (6/4/01)
Acquired: Signed as an Undrafted Free Agent by the Phillies in 2023
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’4” 211lbs
2024 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLW (A-) | 44 | 186 | 4 | 3 | 15.1% | 15.1% | .322 | .446 | .470 |
| JS (A+) | 53 | 232 | 4 | 0 | 9.1% | 14.7% | .356 | .418 | .483 |
| REA (AA) | 6 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 3.8% | 23.1% | .120 | .154 | .120 |
| Total | 103 | 444 | 8 | 3 | 11.3% | 15.3% | .327 | .414 | .454 |
Role: Second Division Regular
Risk: High – Low power output R/R first base is a tough path for any prospect. Anthony has shown a good approach and high line drive rate at each level, but he will need to prove that against higher minors pitching.
Summary: Anthony might have gone on day 2 of the draft in 2023 if not for a gambling allegation (there was no punishment or conclusion of guilt). He showed moderate power in college, but also the ability to get hits and work counts. In professional ball, he has shown much of the same. He put up modest exit velocity numbers with Clearwater and only hit 8 home runs on the season. He posted a .327 average thanks to a staggering 31.6% line drive rate across all of his stops. He needs to elevate the ball more to get to home run power, and while he may not be a 30 home run hitter, he probably needs to get to at least 15-20 home run power. Some of that might just come from driving the right pitches to the pull side, which he did infrequently all year. He has shown plate discipline to be able to make that sort of change, as he chases at a low rate and handles off speed pitches well. Anthony played first this season, but has some experience in an outfield corner in college, and he has the athleticism that he should be able to give it a go. He received a minor league gold glove for his work at first base, and is definitely a plus there.
2025 Outlook: Anthony ended the year with Reading and should return as the primary first baseman. He could possibly see time in an outfield corner if his bat improves. He will need to tap into more power, and Reading is a good place to show if that work comes true.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: UR
26. Alirio Ferrebus, C
Age: 19 (9/12/05)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in 2023
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’2” 174lbs
2024 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHR (DSL) | 14 | 51 | 3 | 2 | 15.7% | 5.9% | .375 | .471 | .725 |
| PHI (FCL) | 10 | 41 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 14.6% | .324 | .366 | .378 |
| Total | 24 | 92 | 3 | 3 | 8.7% | 9.7% | .351 | .424 | .558 |
Role: Bat First Catcher
Risk: Extreme – Ferrebus has exciting offensive potential for a catcher, but he is not a lock to stay behind the plate. It might be a stretch for his bat to play at another position.
Summary: Ferrebus hit well in a very small sample as a 17 year old in the DSL in 2023, but due to other catchers in the Phillies system he repeated his time in the DSL. It didn’t take very long for him to prove he shouldn’t still be there. He was moved stateside, but had an ankle injury after 10 games and then didn’t play again until the Dominican fall instructs. At the plate he has a relatively quiet setup with good bat speed, feel for getting the bat on the ball, and plus raw power. He has some of the general issues of young players, where he swings and makes contact with pitches he probably shouldn’t be swinging at, and the proclivity to chase was exploited a bit more in the FCL. It is an intriguing offensive skill set if he can catch. It is too early to say that Ferrebus cannot catch, he is a 19 year old with 17 total games behind the plate. He has the athleticism and body control when hitting that you could see carry over to defense. Right now however, he stabs a lot when he receives and generally looks more mechanical, like he is thinking about catching rather than it coming naturally. His arm strength is also probably more towards average (he had 25 stolen bases against in 56 innings in the DSL), and he is not quick with his footwork and release. Right now he is mixing in at first like most of their low minors catchers, but if he does have to move out from behind the plate, there is a chance he could handle an outfield corner.
2025 Outlook: Ferrebus is still stuck behind some of the Phillies other catchers, so starting his season in the FCL before moving to the Threshers once Tait and/or Rosario is moved up makes some sense.
ETA: 2029
Previous Rank: UR