Phillies 2025 Top Prospects

I want to jump to the rankings

Ever since the Phillies brought in Dave Dombrowski to run their baseball operations, they have been looking to overhaul the farm system and develop a sustaining long term pipeline. The process involved throwing aside large pieces of the previous framework, many of which have gone on to have success in other organizations, in order to build a cohesive engine of player development.

On the pitching side, it has been a relative success. Multiple breakout players are now in other organizations through trade or the backlog of the Rule 5 draft exposing them to other teams. The front office has mostly not spent premium resources on adding pitching to the system, but out of that has come moderate immediate success (Orion Kerkering) and an actual concentration of high minors depth. 

The hitting side has been less successful. Aidan Miller looks like a real gem, but they have spent premium resources on players that have struggled to show impact at the plate, and they have been poor at taking the rawer clay and molding it into a good player. Two top international signees have gone out the door, one in a trade of good value and one for a middle reliever. Meanwhile, they have struggled outside of Eduardo Tait to identify and develop another hitting prospect from the international ranks.

The Phillies have been pleased with the process, elevating Preston Mattingly from Farm Director to General Manager. Mattingly’s staff has organized a cohesive structure with a high standard, but it is now the time when they actually will need to produce results as the resources available to them in talent acquisition are squeezed ever tighter.

For those new to this exercise, I break the list down into tiers or groupings. They don’t represent a distinct OFP or Overall Future Potential grouping, nor does the Role represent that either. Instead, they are logical groupings where I view the players in a preferred list, but with enough closeness that they are nearly interchangeable. The role and risk is now mostly a construct of my own making separated from its original roots that I have stubbornly stuck to over the years. It is meant to convey a reasonable positive outcome, assuming a positive development of existing skills and projection. The risk is then meant to be a description of what those pitfalls may be. It could be the length of time needed to cross a developmental distance, it could be a linchpin skill, it could be health, or a myriad of other things. My goal is not that you take this list as gospel, but that you know why I evaluated a player the way I did and the relevant facts, so that you can make your own interpretation based on what you value.

For my evaluations I watched video, talked to people in the public sphere (a shout out to Steve Potter who gets excellent information from the complex), pulled numbers from Baseball Savant, Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, and MLB and MiLB dot com, as well as consulted derived metrics such as those from Baseball Prospectus and Rob Orr’s wonderful site. Data is always an unbalanced thing, for leagues (AAA and FSL) with Statcast there is a multitude of data on the above places as well as in my own spreadsheets. For the complexes the Phillies have video with varying data, and I was able to track every pitcher who played in a game as well as get a feel for things such as pitch movement and player exit velocity. For Jersey Shore and Reading I was more reliant on parks with velocity numbers or helpful announcers. I do not have the private trackman data sets, but bits and pieces from those that do have access, and that has been helpful in the work.

As for the list itself, I have about 50 more players I will try and write notes on, as I don’t mean to imply there are only 50 players (or really 100) in the organization that could contribute to the major league team. There is finite time and one must make arbitrary cutoffs.

The Ranking

1-10	11-20	21-30	31-40	41-50
1. Andrew Painter	11. Aroon Escobar	21. TJayy Walton	31. Guillermo Rosario	41. Andrew Baker
2. Aidan Miller	12. Jean Cabrera	22. Wen Hui Pan	32. Trent Farquhar	42. Joel Dragoo
3. Moises Chace	13. Carson DeMartini	23. Otto Kemp	33. Jordan Viars	43. Casey Steward
4. Justin Crawford	14. Mavis Graves	24. Michael Mercado	34. Micah Ottenbreit	44. Nikau Pouaka-Grego
5. Eduardo Tait	15. Seth Johnson	25. Keaton Anthony	35. Max Lazar	45. Raylin Heredia
6. Griffin Burkholder	16. Bryan Rincon	26. Alirio Ferrebus	36. Angel Liranzo	46. Aaron Combs
7. Gabriel Rincones Jr.	17. Alex McFarlane	27. Carter Mathison	37. Enrique Segura	47. Titan Hayes
8. Dante Nori	18. Christian McGowan*	28. John Spikerman	38. Andrew Walling	48. Marcus Morgan
9. Devin Saltiban	19. Hendry Mendez	29. Jalvin Arias	39. Alexander De Los Santos	49. Anderson Navas
10. Mick Abel	20. Brad Pacheco	30. Griff McGarry	40. Daniel Harper	50. Kodey Shojinaga

The List

All Ages are as of Opening Day (3/27/25)

The different tiers of prospects unsurprisingly look like a pyramid, with a large number of interesting players in the organization narrowing to a very few elite prospects at the top. Even here in this group of five there are three distinct tiers. At the top, Painter is an elite prospect, talent wise one of the top in the sport, and only behind others due to his position and injuries. Miller stands alone as well, maybe not fitting into the second tier globally, but among the top 20-40 prospects in the sport and while not elite, he is a very good prospect. The next three are a clump that are probably in the top 80 to 120 prospects in baseball. The gap between 3 and 5 is much much smaller than the gap from Miller to the group. They may not have a much lower ceiling than Miller, but they all have their own quirks and flaws that are valued differently by different evaluators. They are in my preferred order, but they are very much a clump of players.

1. Andrew Painter, RHP

Age: 21 (4/10/03)
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st Round of the 2021 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’7” 215lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB%	K%
Glendale (AFL)	6	6	2-0	15.2	2.30	5.7	0.6	6.7%	30.5%

Role: Front Line Starting Pitcher
Risk: High – There are two conversations about risk with Painter. The first is the most obvious, and it is workload and we just do not know. He threw 103.2 innings in 2022, none in 2023, and 15.2 in games in 2024, and until he does it there is a question mark next to whether he can hold up as a workhorse. The other is whether his stuff is elite or just merely very good. He has a remade arsenal that we have barely seen, and he also is a bit of an outlier when it comes to his fastball. Much of the risk conversation is not about whether he is good, but just how likely he is to be one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Summary: Tommy John surgery over the summer of 2023 meant Painter was expected to be out for all or most of 2024, so it was nice that we got a dominant 6 starts (albeit only 15.2 innings) from him in the Arizona Fall League. Overall, he looks like Andrew Painter of before, but there are some definite differences. The sweeper that was his primary breaking ball in 2022 has been replaced with a gyro slider that averaged 88 mph in the AFL. He should be able to work in the zone to lefties and righties with it, and fall batters whiffed on half of the ones they swung at. That leaves his curveball as his bigger breaking ball, and he is throwing it harder with less drop and more sweep, a place where it might have overlapped with his sweeper previously. He did not throw many changeups, but he throws them hard (averaged over 90 mph), and they have some separation from his fastball. He will need to refine the pitch more, but it is likely to be more velocity dependent than movement. His fastball is going to be his defining pitch though. He didn’t always hold his velocity in the AFL (not surprising given where he was in his return from injury), but he averaged 96.6 mph in tracked games and was up to 99 in those games (he hit 100 on radar guns in his first appearance), and that puts him about where he was before the injury. It will never be a flat pitch due to his size, but he gets good vertical break on it for his slot, and it has natural cut as well. He does all of this while repeating his delivery very well, not just for his size but overall. It is likely that early in his career Painter will be able to be good just on the back of his fastball, slider, and control, but he is cerebral enough that he could change and adapt over his time, adding and subtracting pitches. His ceiling is a perennial Cy Young contender even after the injury.
2025 Outlook: The Phillies are going to be cautious with Painter’s overall workload while also wanting him to pitch in the majors and be prepared for a full workload in 2026. Right now that plan is a delayed start to his season followed by some ramp up and adjustment time, likely in the minors before reaching the majors over the summer.
ETA: 2025
Previous Rank: 1

2. Aidan Miller, SS

Age: 20 (6/9/04)
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st Round of the 2023 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’1” 205lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
CLW (A-)	39	182	5	10	14.3%	21.4%	.275	.401	.483
JS (A+)	58	258	6	12	11.6%	22.1%	.258	.353	.444
REA (AA)	5	22	0	1	0.0%	18.2%	.190	.227	.190
Total	102	462	11	23	12.1%	21.6%	.261	.366	.446

Role: First Division Regular on the Left Side of the Infield
Risk: Medium – Miller’s defense is less of worry than it was a year ago, as he can at least play shortstop now, and a move to third probably ends up with him plus defensively at the hot corner. Miller has plus raw power and a good approach, but he didn’t always fully tap into it. There is a chance that he ends up as just a good player.
Summary: Aidan Miller’s pro debut in 2023 proved to just be the start of a breakout. Miller hit his way out of the Florida State League in just over two months, and had a rough start to his time at Jersey Shore, but eventually seemed to solve that level before ending the year in AA. In the FSL he showed plus game power with a 90th percentile exit velocity of 106.3 mph. He was selective, posting low chase rates and above average zone contact rates while limiting his susceptibility to off speed pitches. The BlueClaws park did him no favors when it came to power, but his quality of contact can suffer at times. He will need to get the ball a bit more in the air to be an impactful hitter. One of the big areas of growth for Miller this year was on defense, where he went from looking out of place at shortstop to competent. He is unlikely to win a gold glove or really be a plus at the position, but he projects as someone who can play it early in his career. If Miller can continue to grow into maximizing his skill set while providing defensive value either as a shortstop or good third baseman, he could be an impactful player for a top team. There is a chance the sum of the parts is just a good player, but not great.
2025 Outlook: Miller should start in Reading, and with Alec Bohm and Trea Turner in the majors there is not a path to the majors right now for Miller without an injury. He should end the year in AAA and force some decisions next offseason.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: 3

3. Moises Chace, RHP

Age: 21 (6/9/03)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Orioles in 2019. Traded to the Phillies with Seth Johnson for Gregory Soto in July 2024
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’1” 213lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB%	K%
ABD (A+)	17	9	2-2	52.0	3.46	6.4	0.9	13.5%	34.2%
JS (A+)	2	2	1-1	8.2	4.15	6.2	0.0	8.6%	37.1%
REA (AA)	4	4	2-1	19.2	3.66	6.4	1.4	9.1%	45.5%
Total	23	15	5-4	80.1	3.59	6.4	0.9	12.0%	37.1%

Role: Mid Rotation Starter
Risk: High – Chace has pitched 6 innings once, 5 innings 3 times, and thrown 80 pitches in a game 5 times. All of those events occurred after he was traded to the Phillies. He has command and pitchability things to work on still, but the raw stuff is ready now.
Summary: At the time of his trade to the Phillies, Chace was an interesting prospect, but certainly not an elite one. The Orioles had used him as a piggy back starter and mostly on the relief side. Even in his start against the BlueClaws the week of the trade he looked like a max effort thrower and not a pitcher. I don’t know what the Phillies told him, but it only took a few starts for him to look like a starting pitcher. Chace’s stuff certainly plays as a starting pitcher. His fastball is his best pitch, sitting 93-96 and touching up to 98, but the velocity is just an enhancement on the shape of the pitch, as Chace gets low and flat with good extension as well as plus rise. He can miss bats in the zone and for chases up above it too. He has a pair of breaking balls in a sweeper in the low 80s and a gyro slider in the mid 80s. The sweeper does not have huge movement, but it gives him a horizontal pitch to work with on the outside of the zone to righties, and it should be an above average to plus pitch. His more vertical slider gives him another weapon against lefties and a pitch that he can throw in the zone while working his fastball up. He will throw some great changeups and some that could use some work. Without full minor league data it is hard to tell, but he might also have a sinker in the mix. He threw more strikes with the Phillies, but he still gets some chases in the minors that he won’t in the majors, and he will need to dial his command in a bit more, especially since the fastball and slider should be throwable in the zone. Beyond the strike throwing, there is a decent fear of the unknown with Chace, as he just has a very short track record as a starting pitcher and holding up to deeper pitch counts and a consistent innings workload. While on the shorter side, Chace is thick enough he should hold up to a starter’s workload in the long term. Chace is on the 40 man roster now, but his 80.1 innings in 2024 represent a career high. With the Phillies pitching depth, they should have the opportunity to get him stretched out and ready for as early as next season.
2025 Outlook: Chace will return to Reading, and the biggest thing might just be to get him on a normal starting pitcher workload and cadence. There will probably be temptation to make him a reliever to help the major league team, but the Phillies have resisted that call in the past.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: N/A

4. Justin Crawford, OF

Age: 21 (1/13/04)
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st Round of the 2022 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: L/R
H/W: 6’2” 188lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
JS (A+)	70	317	6	27	6.6%	20.2%	.301	.349	.438
REA (AA)	40	180	3	15	6.1%	16.1%	.333	.380	.455
Total	110	497	9	42	6.4%	18.7%	.313	.360	.444

Role: Solid Regular Short of a Breakout
Risk: High – Crawford has yet to really develop a solid floor while his ceiling continues to stay out of reach. Despite his speed, he has not been an impact defender in center field, and while he has improved, he continues to hit the ball on the ground at an alarming rate.
Summary: In many ways Crawford gets credit for things that won’t work at the next level while hiding skills more impactful than often talked about. His swing is still a mess, though it is an improving mess. He too often will have a flat, arms only path through the zone, and while his coordination is good enough to get the bat on the ball, it has been a recipe for poor contact. His pitch recognition and approach have also not been great, which has led to some of the ill advised swings. His ground ball rate (60.9% on the season) was among the highest in the minors, and while he has at minimum 70 grade speed, he just is not going to provide sufficient offensive value hitting the ball on the ground. Major league defenders are going to be much more likely to make outs, and the potential for using his speed to leg out doubles is greatly reduced if he is not getting the ball in the air. He also could benefit from getting the ball in the air because he is not without power. While many of them have been balls hit directly into the dirt, his 90th percentile EV of 104.6 mph was average among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects. He doesn’t need to become a three true outcome, lift and pull hitter, he should be getting the ball in the air enough to be a 15-20 home run a year hitter who gets a large number of doubles and triples due to line drives and speed. Part of it will be finding better connectedness in his swing, and some will be working on his approach to actually look to square up the ball more in favorable counts and let his contact abilities and speed work as a secondary skill. Crawford was once again good on the bases thanks to his speed, and if he can get on base he is going to pick up extra value with his legs. His speed is hiding a scary deficiency on defense. His routes and jumps have been subpar, and he is not as aggressive a defender as his speed should allow him to be. Right now, he projects as an ok defender in center, and he should be at least plus. That leaves him with a very volatile set of skills, because there is a path where he is a plus defender, who is a terror on the bases, while putting up above average offensive numbers. That is probably an all-star level ceiling with the current state of centerfield, but you can’t say he does any of those things particularly well. The other side of the spectrum is Johan Rojas with a bit more thump and two to three grades worse defense, and that is a player type the Phillies have pushed aside. Crawford just turned 21, and while there is a real call in the fanbase for him to come up and try and solve the center field position, it might make more sense for the Phillies to really take their time to develop him as a more complete player rather than rush him.
2025 Outlook: Crawford should start the year with Reading and could see AAA by the summer. Unless he suddenly puts it all together, another year of high minor seasoning is probably good for him.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: 5

5. Eduardo Tait, C

Age: 18 (8/27/06)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in 2022
B/T: L/R
H/W: 6’0” 175lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
PHI (FCL)	51	212	6	5	6.1%	14.6%	.321	.377	.500
CLW (A-)	28	114	5	0	7.0%	28.9%	.269	.316	.462
Total	79	326	11	5	6.4%	19.6%	.302	.356	.486

Role: Bat First Catcher With Plenty of Bat
Risk: High – Tait is a teenage catcher with approach and defensive issues, making him part of one of the riskiest prospect demographics.
Summary: Tait followed his breakout 2023 with a romp through the Florida Complex League and a mixed appearance in the Florida State League. His bat, and in particular his power, will always be his calling card, and he showed plus plus raw power and a natural knack for getting the ball in the air to his pull side. Early in the season and once he reached the FSL, he swung a bit too hard and often, and in the complex that translated to poor contact quality and in full season ball his strikeouts spiked. In the middle, he showed a more disciplined approach and that he has enough feel for contact and raw strength that he does not have to sell out for power to get to it. It is one of the areas where it is important to remember that he turned 18 years old in August, and while physically mature, he may still have feel for the game improvements to make. The same can be echoed behind the plate, where he made consistent improvements over the course of the season but still does not look like a lock to stay behind the plate. His receiving has been the area of biggest growth, but he still needs to improve at blocking and being more natural. The footwork and natural movement plays into his throwing as well, where he has a strong arm, but his transfer and movements reduce his pop times. Collectively, there is not a reason he cannot stick behind the plate, but it will take work and improvement, and even then it is unlikely to be a strength of his game. There is a chance for Tait to be special, and given his age, physicality, and statistical output it can look like that could happen quickly, but there might be some painful time ahead as parts of his game need to catch up.
2025 Outlook: Tait should be the primary catcher for the Threshers to start the year. If he can once again get his approach under control, the Phillies might have a real conflict between the speed his bat wants to move vs his defensive development.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: 7

I talk a lot about tiers or groupings of players, and to me there is a distinct drop from 5 to 6 and then from 16 to 17. In a deeper system it would be better if this group started at 10 instead of 6, but this is not a group of bad prospects. What divides this group of 11 players from those that come after it is that you can see the very clear path to being a regular major league baseball player. There is certainly risk and a lot of development ahead for some of these players, but there is real talent here.

6. Griffin Burkholder, OF

Age: 19 (8/30/05)
Acquired: Drafted in the 2nd Round of the 2024 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’2” 195lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
CLW (A-)	1	2	0	0	0.0%	0.0%	.500	.500	1.500

Role: Above Average Regular
Risk: Extreme – Burkholder hit a triple in his first pro plate appearance and then injured himself in his second. He has plenty of tools, but there are some flaws that haven’t had time to face resistance.
Summary: The Phillies gave equal bonuses to their top two picks, and Burkholder, picked second of the two, might be the better prospect. He has good size and already flashes plus raw power thanks to good bat speed and a swing that gets pull side loft. His swing has some length, and he chased some breaking balls away in some of the unofficial games. However, in the small sample size he wasn’t a hacker and showed a patient approach. Defensively, pre-draft reports had him as a plus plus runner who could stick in center field. If he manages to do that, he could be an elite prospect, but his overall frame looks like he will lose at least a grade of speed. It is easy to see him shifting from ok center fielder to a plus corner defender. Burkholder has the raw tools to be an impact player, but he has very little pro sample size and is mostly just projection at this point.
2025 Outlook: Burkholder should be one of the starting outfielders for the Threshers, whether he gets time in center while sharing an outfield with Dante Nori remains to be seen. The Phillies have not been afraid to push high profile high school picks to Jersey Shore if they have success either.
ETA: 2029
Previous Rank: N/A

7. Gabriel Rincones Jr., OF

Age: 24 (3/3/01) 
Acquired: Drafted in the 3rd Round of the 2022 Draft by the Phillies|
B/T: L/R
H/W: 6’4” 225lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
PHI (FCL)	9	36	0	3	11.1%	22.2%	.167	.278	.200
REA (AA)	59	258	11	20	11.6%	25.6%	.263	.357	.487
Glendale (AFL)	22	90	2	9	12.2%	7.8%	.273	.367	.403
Total	90	384	13	32	9.1%	21.1%	.257	.351	.411

Role: Strong Side Platoon Corner Outfielder That Gives Value Like a Regular
Risk: Medium – Rincones is already very poor against left handed pitching and has had some injury issues. However he has a good approach that offsets some of his swing and miss.
Summary: Rincones started the year on a hot streak, with a 1.017 OPS in 13 games, before tearing a ligament in his thumb and missing two months. He struggled in his return, not unexpected given the injury, hitting .224/.316/.329 over his first 23 games back (the amount of time until he hit his second home run of his return. He then hit 4 home runs in 5 games, and .252/.338/.479 the rest of the season before going to the Arizona Fall League. All year Rincones struggled against left handed pitching, hitting just .189/.250/.243 off southpaws in 40 plate appearances. Rincones has plus plus raw power, in the Arizona Fall League he had an average exit velocity of 91.8 mph, but a max of 115.7 mph, and 90th percentile of 106.0 mph. He has not always translated that to home runs, hitting line drives more than fly balls to the outfield, but he could easily be a 20+ home run hitter. He has a good approach, but he will swing and miss. The end result is not quite three true outcomes, but it is in that archetype so he will have below average batting averages with good on base and slugging. Defensively, Rincones is capable of playing both outfield corners with an improving, but below average glove, and a good arm. He is a plus base runner with below average speed, which is likely to add value, but not the stolen base numbers he has had in the minors. Rincones is a flawed player with distinct weaknesses, but the nature of his weaknesses and strengths means that a good team can deploy him in a way that could provide value commensurate with an above average player while having to sit him in certain circumstances.
2025 Outlook: Rincones will start the year in Reading and will be Rule 5 eligible after the season. He won’t be in contention for an early spot on the roster, but if there were a major issue he could be a higher upside answer.
ETA: 2025
Previous Rank: 12

8. Dante Nori, OF

Age: 20 (10/7/04)
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st Round of the 2024 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: L/L
H/W: 5’10” 190lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
CLW (A-)	14	66	0	4	24.2%	21.2%	.240	.424	.280

Role: Everyday Center Fielder
Risk: High – Nori currently hits for zero power and is already 20 and physically mature. He should have the glove, speed, and contact to not need to be a slugger, but he will need to hit for some power.
Summary: The Phillies have never shied away from older prospects in the draft, and Nori was one of the oldest high schoolers when they took him with the 27th pick and signed him to about the smallest deal they could for a player who went to the combine. He is an already polished player who should be a plus defender in center field thanks to plus plus speed. At the plate he already has the advanced approach you would hope for from an older player. In his brief time in Clearwater he had a 92.5% zone contact rate and did not chase much or struggle with offspeed pitches. He was probably too passive, and an area of improvement will be finding pitches to do damage with. Which gets to the real negative of Nori as a prospect, he does very little damage at the plate. In his 14 games in the Florida State League he had a 90th percentile exit velocity of 93.2 mph with a max of 96.9 mph, both of which would have been in the 1st percentile of all FSL hitters. When you watch him hit, his swing is not geared to drive the ball, instead focused on contact, and it looks like he should have more power if he actually swung with more intent. He shouldn’t be a max effort hacker, but he needs to find a way to swing with the goal of driving the baseball. Unless Nori makes a transformative change, he is probably a low ceiling prospect, and assuming center field remains as bleak as it is now and he maintains his defense, he probably has a fairly high floor.
2025 Outlook: Nori should start the year in Clearwater, but is older and polished enough that he could prove he needs a midseason challenge against older competition.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: N/A

9. Devin Saltiban, 2B

Age: 20 (2/14/05)
Acquired: Drafted in the 3rd Round of the 2023 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 5’9” 180lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
CLW (A-)	97	411	17	22	12.2%	24.8%	.237	.346	.428

Role: Everyday Second Baseman
Risk: High – Saltiban has positional and contact concerns, but he has intriguing offensive impact, good athleticism, and a background that was always likely to take time for him to adjust to pro ball.
Summary: The Phillies immediately moved Saltiban from the outfield to the infield after he was drafted, first to shortstop last year, and then to a full year at second base. He looks like someone still learning the position, and the Phillies should give him plenty of time to see if he can get the finer parts of the position down. If he does have to move back to the outfield, it becomes imperative that he can play center, because his bat is unlikely to play in a corner. His offense is a different sort of work in progress. Saltiban shows above average to plus raw power (102.1 mph 90th percentile and 109.8 mph max exit velocity), and already is adept at pulling the ball in the air for some crushed home runs. He has a solid approach at the plate with moderate chase and a good feel for turning on balls in the zone. He was susceptible to offspeed pitches, and his whiff rate was high for the league and it showed in low contact rates. Unsurprisingly, he generally improved over the course of the season. If he can stick on the infield and continue to show this kind of power output, he can get away with the contact not being a strength, he just needs to get it to not be an exploitable hole.
2025 Outlook: Saltiban should be the everyday second baseman for the BlueClaws and will probably spend the full year at Jersey Shore. The park is likely to decrease his power, but the key will be whether his contact issues improve.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: 16

10. Mick Abel, RHP

Age: 23 (8/18/01)
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st Round of the 2020 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’5” 190lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB%	K%
LHV (AAA)	24	24	3-12	108.2	6.46	9.9	1.2	15.1%	22.7%

Role: #4 Starter that always hints at more
Risk: Medium – It wasn’t a good year in AAA for Abel, but we have reason to believe he wasn’t at his best all season. He has proven to be durable across his time in the minors.
Summary: For a player with four full minor league seasons, Mick Abel still feels unfinished. Over the seasons he has altered his delivery and his pitches enough that each year feels like a new year. His 2024 season started off with a bang with him throwing fastballs past Juan Soto. However, an illness sapped him of his strength, and when combined with a delivery that never looked comfortable, his velocity was down for the first three months of the season, not achieving an average fastball velocity above 95 until July and finally in August sitting 95.8 mph with his four seamer. It was still a bit below where he was in 2023, and the movement on it is pedestrian. Like most Phillies pitchers he will mix in a sinker, and over the summer he stopped throwing it to lefties and started  throwing it more to righties than previously. For breaking balls he has settled on a gyro slider that should sit about 86 and a low 80s curveball with two plane movement. The slider should in theory be his best offspeed pitch, but issues with the fastball have caused the effectiveness on all of his breaking balls to suffer. Over the summer he made some changes to his changeup that had success. It is a harder pitch (averaging around 89 mph) that moved from having more armside movement mimicking his sinker to horizontal movement closer to his 4-seamer, but with more drop than before. Given that he does not throw his sinker to lefties any more, it now has more deception off of his four seamer. With the arsenal settled, the problem continues to be control. Abel just does not throw enough strikes and opposing hitters know it. He has struggled to get early strikes, and hitters have waited him out to either give them a hittable pitch or walk them while fishing for a chase. It no longer looks like Abel will develop the stuff to be a front line starter, but he has enough stuff and pitch variety that he should be able to live in the strike zone. There is a good starting pitcher here, it just might not be the one envisioned.
2025 Outlook: Abel is on the 40 man roster, and is probably not the first call up if there is a starting pitching injury, but he is in the line.
ETA: 2025
Previous Rank: 2

11. Aroon Escobar, 2B/3B

Age: 20 (1/1/05)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in 2022
B/T: R/R
H/W: 5’10” 180lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
PHI (FCL)	24	104	3	9	20.2%	9.6%	.338	.495	.481

Role: Above Average Regular
Risk: Extreme – Escobar played 24 games this year. They were 24 very good games, but they had enough underlying poor indicators to go with the good that you can’t crown Escobar yet.
Summary: Escobar has long shown an advanced approach at every stop, and his 21 walks to 10 strikeouts this season were a product of good decision making rather than passivity. He has plus raw power and good contact rates to go with the low chase rates, but has struggled to consistently square up the baseball with stretches of pop ups and ground balls at each level. If he can find more of that consistency with contact quality, his approach and power are going to make it play up in a way that could make him an impact offensive player. He has been a good base stealer the last two seasons, but is more of an average runner than a burner. This shows on defense where he can play second base, but at times he seems to lack some of the range to be a great defender there. He has plenty of arm for third base, and his actions and range play well enough there he could be an above average or plus defender at the hot corner. Escobar missed time the last two seasons, including being day to day for over 2 months in 2024 with shin splints in both legs. If he can stay healthy he has a chance to breakout early in the season and quickly be one of the best prospects in the organization.
2025 Outlook: Escobar should finally reach full season ball next year, and if he consistently does what he has flashed, then he could move up to Jersey Shore by the middle of the season.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: 46

12. Jean Cabrera, RHP

Age: 23 (10/20/01)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in 2019
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’0” 145lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB%	K%
JS (A+)	14	14	5-4	77.0	3.39	6.9	0.7	8.0%	29.0%
REA (AA)	6	5	1-1	29.2	4.85	11.2	0.0	6.1%	14.4%
Total	20	19	6-5	106.2	3.80	8.1	0.5	7.4%	24.7%

Role: #4 Starter
Risk: Medium – Jean Cabrera has a starter’s arsenal and a good feel for pitching, and has reached AA. Cabrera did not miss bats in his AA time, and while it’s a small sample size, it is something to watch.
Summary: Cabrera took a step forward in 2023 and another in 2024. His fastballs worked more in the upper end of his 91-96 mph range, and he was able to hold that velocity into his starts. Both his four seamer and his sinker lack positive movement traits, and he struggles to miss bats in the zone with them. This is offset by his offspeed pitches, both of which saw improvement in command and sequencing. His changeup gets big sink and horizontal movement in the upper 80s, and he sells it very well off of his fastball. He will throw it to both righties and lefties, both as a chase and in the zone. He gets solid movement on his sweeper, but it isn’t a plus pitch on its own. The big difference for him this season is he went from using it as a glove side chase pitch to landing it backdoor for strikes and in on the feet for chases to left handed batters. He is reportedly adding a cutter to the mix as another way to keep hitters off balance in the strike zone. He is unlikely to miss as many bats as he did in Jersey Shore, but despite his size he has held up as a starting pitcher, and his improved feel should serve him well. It is unsurprising, given his changeup, that he had better success against left handed batters in 2024, so improving his sweeper and likely his sinker vs right handed batters will be an area of improvement to look for in 2025. The Phillies feel he has some more velocity in his arm, as he has touched up to 98, but he is not a very large individual and there is definitely some question about how his arm might hold up at that point.
2025 Outlook: The Phillies added Cabrera to the 40 man roster, and he shouldn’t factor into the 2025 major league plans outside of possibly the end of the season. He should go to Reading and pitch out of the rotation there for much or all of the season.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: 18

13. Carson DeMartini, 3B

Age: 22 (12/27/02)
Acquired: Drafted in the 4th Round of the 2024 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: L/R
H/W: 6’0” 197lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
CLW (A-)	24	104	2	8	8.7%	13.5%	.315	.385	.478

Role: Everyday Third Baseman
Risk: High – DeMartini swung and missed at a high rate this year in college, but put up high contact rates in pro ball with much lower power output in the pros. He will need to bring those together to have success in the future.
Summary: DeMartini was supposed to be a first round pick heading into the 2024 draft after two dominant years at Virginia Tech, but a shoulder surgery and possible swing changes saw him swing and miss at a high rate as a junior, and he fell to the Phillies in the 4th round. With the Threshers he ran an impressive 91.7% zone contact rate. The problem is that his 90th percentile exit velocity was 100.5 mph, with a max of 106.6 mph, and he pulled fly balls at a low rate, too. It led to just 2 home runs and 7 extra base hits in 24 games after 21 home runs and 35 extra base hits in 54 games in college. It is positive that DeMartini was able to improve his contact, but he will need to get back to driving the baseball to have an impactful future. He won’t need to maintain 90%+ z-contact rates, but if he can stay around at least 85%, he will have plenty of success. Defensively, the Phillies played DeMartini at second and short in addition to third, but they view him as a third baseman and he should stick at the position. There is a path where DeMartini puts it all together and is an impact player, but it is more likely he is a player with a collection of flaws and successes that work out to make him a decent player.
2025 Outlook: Given his college track record and success with the Threshers, DeMartini likely starts with the BlueClaws. If he can put it all together, he could move quickly.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: N/A

14. Mavis Graves, LHP

Age: 21 (12/20/03)
Acquired: Drafted in the 6th Round of the 2022 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: L/L
H/W: 6’6” 205lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB%	K%
CLW (A-)	18	16	7-6	84.0	3.64	8.3	0.3	9.8%	31.8%

Role: #4 Starter
Risk: High – Graves has a feel for spin and a collection of secondary pitches that missed bats. He will flash higher velocity, but right now he throws all of his pitches 2-3 mph slower than you would want, and his fastballs get hit around.
Summary: Graves was a project when the Phillies took him, and he is still very much a project, but one that is starting to take shape. During the season, he was one of the most prolific strikeout pitchers in the Florida State League, with the peak of his season being a 10 game run from April 21 to June 25, where he threw 52.1 innings with a 2.06 ERA with 16 walks and 81 strikeouts, with 4 different 10 strikeout games. What was impressive was that he did it while throwing two different fastballs 47% of the time that were not really fooling batters. That was thanks to three very good offspeed pitches. He throws a slider/cutter with spin rates north of 2600 RPM that had a ridiculous 62% zone contact rate, while throwing it in the zone more than his fastballs. It came in at a season average of 82.7 mph, but he flashed throwing it more in the 84-87 range. It pairs with a sweeper/curve with spin rates above 2800 RPM that had good results in and out of the zone, but he needs to refine the command a bit more. It was 3 mph slower than his cutter and had more sweep than drop. His sneakily best pitch might be his changeup that he killed the spin on well and was rarely in the zone, but generated a large number of whiffs. The fastballs themselves average 90.8 mph each, but he showed that he could get them up to 94-95 early in the year. His 4-seamer has deadzone movement and a bad angle, and his sinker could use killing a bit more verticality to take advantage of its steepness to limit hard contact (think Cristopher Sanchez).  Unsurprisingly for a young pitcher going through his first full season, much of Graves’ arsenal lost 1-2 mph over the course of the season, and his command really suffered through September. Graves has the frame to hold up as a starter, and it will be important that he can build that stamina while also increasing his velocity. If he does have a big velocity jump, he could be a monster, but it is probably safer to view him as a lefty who gives a weird look (he uses his size for a steep angle on all of his pitches) and throws enough fastballs to keep hitters off his secondary pitches so they can do their work.
2025 Outlook: Graves pitched a full season in Clearwater and will likely pitch a full season in Jersey Shore as a follow up.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: 37

15. Seth Johnson, RHP

Age: 26 (9/19/98)
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round of the 2019 Draft by the Rays. Traded to the Baltimore Orioles in a 3-team trade with the Houston Astros in August 2022. Traded to the Phillies with Moises Chace for Gregory Soto in July 2024.
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’1” 205lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB%	K%
BOW (AA)	18	18	0-6	65.0	2.63	7.1	0.7	13.0%	22.6%
REA (AA)	2	2	0-1	7.2	3.52	9.4	2.3	3.0%	27.3%
LHV (AAA)	5	5	2-1	23.0	2.74	5.9	0.8	14.4%	19.6%
PHI (MLB)	1	1	0-1	2.1	34.71	30.9	3.9	16.7%	0.0%
MiLB Total	25	25	2-8	95.2	2.73	7.0	0.9	12.5%	22.3%

Role: #4 Starter/Multi-Inning Reliever
Risk: Medium – It was a successful first full year back from Tommy John surgery for Johnson, but he still doesn’t fully look like a lock to start. His pitch arsenal plays below the visual and metrics level, and he might lack the ability to really turn over a lineup multiple times.
Summary: Johnson was picked in the 1st round by the Rays in 2019 after pitching only 67.1 innings in college. Then the 2020 season was canceled, and he had Tommy Johnson surgery in 2022 that cut short 3 more years of development. Johnson has only 313.1 pro innings, and 98 of them came in 2024. The Phillies took some of the restrictions off after he came over in the trade for Gregory Soto, but he has yet to really pitch deep games on high pitch counts. It also means that for a 26 year old, he is well behind his age on the developmental curve. His fastball is the most intriguing pitch in his arsenal, averaging about 95 mph with over 18” IVB, but that rise is offset by a less than ideal approach angle given his size, and hitters were able to make contact both in and out of the zone on it. His best pitch after the trade was his slider, which has shorter gyro/cutter movement, and he was able to use it to generate swings and misses both in and out of the zone. He has a big curveball, but in AAA and the majors, hitters hit it every time it was in the zone and almost never chased it. In theory a big breaker should play off of high fastballs, but hitters were clearly able to identify it. He threw a limited number of changeups, and while inconsistent, there were some good flashes. As a starter he will need to develop the changeup and fix what is wrong with the curveball, but as a reliever he could simplify the arsenal to the fastball and slider. He has struggled with command and control when betters have not chased his stuff, and other than the slider he has not had a pitch to compete in the zone. Hopefully, some of the issues will be helped by being another year removed from surgery.
2025 Outlook: Given the Phillies current rotation situation, Johnson won’t be in the competition mix in Spring Training barring an injury. He is 26 and nearing the end of his option years, so while he will definitely start the year in a rotation (probably AAA), there will need to be a conversation about a move to the bullpen at some point.
ETA: 2024
Previous Rank: N/A

16. Bryan Rincon, SS

Age: 21 (2/8/04)
Acquired: Drafted in the 14th Round of the 2022 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: S/R
H/W: 5’11” 185lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
CLW (A-)	2	8	0	0	12.5%	25.0%	.143	.250	.143
JS (A+)	33	140	2	8	16.4%	31.4%	.202	.336	.333
Glendale (AFL)	19	73	0	8	12.3%	20.5%	.188	.288	.250
Total	54	221	2	16	14.9%	27.6%	.194	.317	.297

Role: Glove First Bottom of the Lineup Shortstop
Risk: High – Rincon barely played in 2024 due to a leg injury, and he once again struggled to make impactful contact. His glove projects to be good, but not good enough to be a zero at the plate. There is a fairly narrow path between sticking at the bottom of the lineup and being more of a bench player.
Summary: Rincon had a rough April where he was too passive at the plate, before having a solid 11 game stretch of May before he suffered a hamstring injury. He never really got back to where he was between the end of the season and a trip to the Arizona Fall League. The season didn’t really change the outlook on Rincon, but his struggles were concerning when he was on the field. He has the makings of a solid approach and has run good contact rates, but he can be prone to not hunting pitches to do damage on. He also lacks impact in his swing, and he really needs to maximize the trajectory of his contact in the air to get to home run power. If he puts it together, he probably is a 10 home run bat that doesn’t make up for the lack of power with a large amount of doubles, but is enough of a threat that he can maintain a decent walk rate. The combination will likely never be more than average at the plate, and likely below, which is why his defensive projection is important. He is a solid shortstop, and has a chance to be a plus defender in the long run thanks to good actions and arm. He hasn’t played positions other than short yet, but if he isn’t a regular it will be important that he has positional versatility.
2025 Outlook: Rincon will return to Jersey Shore looking for a full healthy season. With Caba traded, he should get the everyday reps at shortstop.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: 9

To me there is a distinct top 16 prospects in the system and what feels like a drop off in the late 20s. In between those two groups is an interesting set of players. It includes some injured players, some breakouts with questions, and some very flawed players that are one major developmental gain away from a breakout. In the past I might have referred to this range as purgatory, but it might actually be the place with some of the more interesting conversations relevant to the future of the organization.

17. Alex McFarlane, RHP

Age: 23 (6/9/01)
Acquired: Drafted in the 4th Round of the 2022 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’4” 230lbs
2024 Stats: Did not appear in a game in 2024
Role: 7th/8th Inning Reliever
Risk: Extreme – McFarlane had Tommy John surgery in late 2023 and had been throwing to hitters as various camp activities ended, but there are no reports on where his stuff is. Before the injury, McFarlane was already showing control issues.
Summary: McFarlane is one of the Phillies big stuff, low control college arms they have taken over the last few drafts. In college, McFarlane struggled in the rotation and was widely considered to be a future reliever. The Phillies started him out of the rotation in 2023, and his stuff had jumped, with his fastball touching 100 and routinely sitting high 90s. His velocity then decreased over the course of the season, and then injuries and more struggles marked the rest of the season, before he had to have Tommy John surgery in the fall. He spent all of 2024 in the rehab program in the complex, progressing to live batting practice by the end of the year. At his best, McFarlane throws a high 90s fastball with natural sinker movement, leaving his 4-seam fastball more deadzone, but his sinker should be a good weapon. His mid 80s slider was one of the most dominant pitches in the Phillies system in 2023, and in both his fastball and breaking ball he has very high spin rates. He also mixed in a changeup that tunneled off his fastball with heavy armside movement. McFarlane’s control was poor in college and in the minors, and it makes sense for him to work as a reliever where he can rely on his stuff over pacing. McFarlane will be Rule 5 eligible after the season, which could accelerate the Phillies aligning his role with his timeline.
2025 Outlook: When and how much McFarlane pitches will depend on what role the Phillies use him in. As a reliever he could start in Jersey Shore and move quickly, though likely operating with extra rest. As a starting pitcher, he could start later and then ramp up slowly.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: 21

*Steve Potter reported that Christian McGowan had labrum surgery after this was written. I wish Christian a healthy recovery, he obviously would rank differently on the list had that information been known.

18. Christian McGowan, RHP

Age: 25 (3/7/00)
Acquired: Drafted in the 7th Round of the 2021 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’3” 205lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB%	K%
PHI (FCL)	2	1	0-0	3.0	0.00	6.0	0.0	10.0%	40.0%
CLW (A-)	1	1	0-0	3.0	0.00	3.0	0.0	8.3%	33.3%
REA (AA)	11	9	0-4	34.1	6.29	10.0	1.6	12.6%	23.4%
Glendale (AFL)	5	2	2-1	15.2	4.60	13.2	0.0	11.4%	13.9%
Total	19	13	2-5	56.0	5.14	10.3	1.0	12.0%	20.9%

Role: Multi Inning Reliever
Risk: Medium – McGowan is starting to accumulate a number of innings in the high minors, and while starting has not worked out, there is a path for it to work in the bullpen.
Summary: McGowan is a solidly built, but short, right handed starter with an arsenal that would have looked better a decade ago. McGowan missed most of 2022 and 2023 due to Tommy John surgery, and was unhealthy in 2024 as well, only getting 55.2 innings across the regular season and a return trip to the AFL. He primarily throws a sinker, and he was able to show a bit more movement on it, but it is a pitch that does not miss bats despite reaching up to 97. His high 80s changeup is probably his best pitch as he kills the spin on it for good fade. He manipulates his slider shapes heavily from sweeper to cutter, with the cutter being more in the zone and the sweeper for chases. He should probably separate them into more distinct pitches to avoid some of the middle bleed. While that sounds like a starting pitching arsenal, McGowan has struggled both with his control and to hold velocity deeper into starts. He should still be able to pitch multiple innings as a reliever, and the short bursts would let him sit at the upper end of his velocity range.
2025 Outlook: McGowan probably gets another few months to start, but if he struggles and the other starters provide adequate depth, the Phillies may take a look at him in short bursts.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: 10

19. Hendry Mendez, OF

Age: 21 (11/7/03)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Brewers in 2021. Traded to the Phillies with Robert Moore for Oliver Dunn in November 2023.
B/T: L/L
H/W: 6’3” 175lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
JS (A+)	90	373	3	3	13.9%	13.9%	.284	.386	.391

Role: Second Division Regular
Risk: High – Mendez’s swing is a real mess leading to poor contact, but *gestures at everything else* is pretty good.
Summary: Mendez fills out a uniform well, has plus raw power (104.6 mph 90th percentile and 111 mph max this year according to Baseball America), has very low chase rates, and very good contact rates. He walked as many times as he struck out (13.9%) as a 20 year old in low-A. He hits the ball on the ground too much, like many Phillies hitting prospects, which limits his game power. Your initial thought would be that he has some swing and timing improvements to make, and for that you would be mostly right. Mendez’s swing is a mess, it consists almost entirely of his arms so he is rarely on time, on plane, or hitting with much force behind the ball. When he does engage his hips, they are often disjointed leading to more timing issues. Much like Justin Crawford, he is at his best on pitches inside because the swing path means he must engage everything in a way that allows him to get some thump. Right now, the whole thing is completely unworkable, but there are enough other things going on that if the Phillies do fix it, he could be a very interesting hitter. On defense he is a slightly negative corner outfield defender, which means that he needs to produce offensively.
2025 Outlook: Mendez will go to AA where the park should be advantageous for power if he can get his swing in a place where he can elevate the ball. He is only 21, so it would not be a bad thing if he spent the whole year at AA.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: 34

20. Brad Pacheco, RHP

Age: 19 (6/9/05)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in 2023
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’0” 190lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB%	K%
PHR (DSL)	5	5	1-0	17.0	1.59	5.8	0.0	4.8%	36.5%

Role: #4 Statrer
Risk: Extreme – Pacheco has pitched 17 innings of pro ball in addition to some unofficial games the last two seasons. They were a good 17 innings, but he has the normal warts of a complex level pitcher and has solid, but not overwhelming stuff. 
Summary: Injuries kept Pacheco off a mound all of last season and delayed his pro debut until July 19 of 2024. He is solid, so despite his short stature, he looks like a starting pitcher. He mostly repeats his delivery well, coming from a three quarters slot. His fastball comes out easy and looks to have good ride on it, sitting mostly 91 to 94 and touching 95. He has a big breaking curveball that is at its best in the upper 70s, and upper minors hitters will likely get less fooled on the big loopy ones.. His changeup is a work in progress, he will throw some firm ones with little movement and separation, but will flash some good armside fade and feel for the pitch. He is a strong candidate down the road for the Phillies’ full suite of extra pitches, including a distinct sinker and some sort of east-west breaking ball. His command can be a bit spotty and he will miss high and armside with all of his pitches, and despite the movement profile, he looks more comfortable spotting his fastball down in the zone. Really, Pacheco is a good foundation on which to build an interesting pitcher, and he has shown good potential in his small sample size.
2025 Outlook: Pacheco will move stateside next season, and given the new FCL schedule he could pitch in the FCL to open the year and finish in the Florida State League if he has the innings left. 
ETA: 2029
Previous Rank: UR

21. TJayy Walton, OF

Age: 20 (1/29/05)
Acquired: Drafted in the 4th Round of the 2023 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’3” 225lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
PHI (FCL)	4	14	0	0	0.0%	35.7%	.154	.214	.154
CLW (A-)	36	145	3	7	13.1%	31.7%	.200	.331	.330
Total	40	159	3	7	11.9	32.1	.195	.321	.316

Role: Everyday Regular
Risk: Extreme – Walton has worrying zone contact rates, whiffs vs offspeed pitches, and chase rates. He also played in 40 games, all of which seemed to never be in sustained healthy stretches.
Summary: There is no real way to view Walton’s 2024 season as a success. When he was on the field, he showed plus or better raw power (max exit velocity 112 mph) and had a couple of games where it looked like he was about to break out. He also was barely on the field for multiple weeks in a row, as leg injuries recurred all year. Whether it was part of never having a rhythm, or the harbinger of bad things to come, he had concerning contact issues. He had one of the lowest zone contact rates in the Florida State League while whiffing on secondary pitches more than league average. He was good at swinging at the right pitches, but swung at a lot of other pitches as well. It is probably fair to write some of the year off for Walton, but he will need to show that it was a one year blip early in 2025 to rebuild his prospect status.
2025 Outlook: There is probably a scenario where Walton has a great camp and goes to Jersey Shore, but it is more likely he goes back to Clearwater to get his feet under him.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: 17

22. Wen-Hui Pan, RHP

Age: 22 (9/19/02)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in 2023
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’3” 220lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB%	K%
PHI (FCL	1	1	0-0	1.0	9.00	27.0	0.0	0.0%	14.3%
CLW (A-)	3	3	0-1	7.1	3.68	7.4	0.0	6.5%	38.7%
JS (A+)	14	1	0-1	21.0	1.29	5.6	0.0	8.5%	26.8%
Total	18	5	0-2	29.1	2.15	6.8	0	7.5%	29.2%

Role: 7th Inning Reliever
Risk: High – Pan will miss all of 2025 due to Tommy John surgery, and was behind on development already this season.
Summary: Pan missed the start of the 2024 season with a broken bone in his hand. Rather than stretch him out, the Phillies used him as a multi inning reliever. He has limited his diverse offspeed arsenal to gyro slider and splitter, with only the occasional curveball. He showed he could throw the slider in the upper 80s, and he will need to throw it hard to be an effective pitch. His splitter is still his best pitch, and he will likely throw it often in the long term. His fastball velocity will sometimes drop, but at his best he will sit 95-99. It doesn’t have great movement, so maintaining the higher velocity will be important. For the most part his control has improved this year. Unfortunately all of his progress will have to go on hold as he had pain after arriving in the Arizona Fall League, and ultimately had to have Tommy John surgery.
2025 Outlook: Pan will miss all of 2025 while he recovers from surgery. His timeline means that he likely won’t appear in any formal game settings.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: 14

23. Otto Kemp, IF

Age: 25 (9/9/99)
Acquired: Signed as an Undrafted Free Agent by the Phillies in 2022
B/T: R/R
H/W: 5’11” 185lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	GS	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
CLW (A-)	5	20	1	2	15.0%	15.0%	.500	.650	1.000
JS (A+)	41	182	4	8	11.5%	15.9%	.333	.440	.533
REA (AA)	64	273	11	9	8.4%	22.7%	.258	.353	.476
LHV (AAA)	13	54	0	1	9.3%	33.3%	.200	.333	.244
Glendale (AFL)	15	63	6	1	17.5%	23.8%	.289	.460	.733
Total	138	592	22	21	10.6%	21.5%	.285	.368	.511

Role: Corner Infield/Outfield Bench Bat
Risk: Medium – Kemp has more positions listed than he should really play, but he should have enough positional flexibility for a MLB bench. The question is his offense, as he has tapped into his power more, but he has always had more swing and miss vs secondary pitches than would be ideal.
Summary: In his first two pro years Kemp showed intriguing raw power, but had mostly hit line drives and not gotten over the fence. This season, he was able to elevate the ball more and hit 22 home runs between the regular season and the AFL. The power isn’t a mirage either. In the AFL he had an average exit velocity of 94.7 mph, a max of 115.8 mph, and a 90th percentile of 108.4 mph, all of which indicate plus plus raw power. He has generally been a patient hitter, with average in zone contact rates, but a susceptibility to offspeed pitches. It is a fair worry that he has feasted on inferior pitching. He didn’t really have a large enough sample to say whether he will be more of a platoon bat or not. Defensively he has primarily been a second and third baseman, but second has always been more of a stretch, and he is just ok at third. He has started getting time at first base and in left and right field. Being playable in the outfield will be important for his future career, and it looks like it should be possible. There is room for a right handed bat that can play all 4 corners, and stand at second in an emergency, on a modern MLB bench.
2025 Outlook: Kemp will go to AAA where he should be in line for a call up if the Phillies have an injury. He will need to go on the 40 man roster after the season, and he projects to be a home grown version of players like Kody Clemens, Weston Wilson, and Buddy Kennedy.
ETA: 2025
Previous Rank: UR

24. Michael Mercado, RHP

Age: 25 (4/15/99)
Acquired: Drafted in the 2nd round of the 2017 draft by the Rays. Traded to the Phillies for Adam Leverett in November 2023.
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’4” 205lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB%	K%
LHV (AAA)	32	10	3-1	69.2	2.07	6.6	0.5	12.2%	22.3%
PHI (MLB)	5	2	1-2	13.0	11.08	11.1	6.2	14.1%	15.6%

Role: Multi Inning Middle Reliever
Risk: Medium – Mercado didn’t pitch as a reliever for much of last year, and hasn’t really had an extended stretch of just letting his stuff fly in a short stint.
Summary: In Spring Training, the Phillies had Mercado pitching exclusively as a reliever, and he was sitting 96-98, touching 99. With his 4 pitch mix and their lack of starting pitching depth, they then started to stretch him out in AAA, and he was pitching up to 6 innings and even made 3 “starts” in the majors to 1 good and 2 poor results. His fastball velocity was down 1-2 mph as a starter, but he was able to hold it into his starts, but he had generally poor results with the pitch. His big curveball fooled fewer batters as the season went on. His cutter was his most successful pitch in AAA, and his changeup saw improvement all year. His command suffered all season, and he struggled with opposing batters not chasing and working deep counts. With the Phillies acquiring and developing much more starting pitching depth, he should return full time to the bullpen. In that role he should add a little more velocity, and he should throw his fastball a little less while using his offspeed more. His arsenal should lend itself to facing both righties and lefties in a multi inning role.
2025 Outlook: Mercado will probably compete for the last bullpen spot this spring and then go to AAA as call up depth. The Phillies will likely be looking for another reliable reliever all year, and if his stuff ticks up, then Mercado could quickly find himself with a major league role.
ETA: 2024
Previous Rank: 31

25. Keaton Anthony, 1B

Age: 23 (6/4/01)
Acquired: Signed as an Undrafted Free Agent by the Phillies in 2023
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’4” 211lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
CLW (A-)	44	186	4	3	15.1%	15.1%	.322	.446	.470
JS (A+)	53	232	4	0	9.1%	14.7%	.356	.418	.483
REA (AA)	6	26	0	0	3.8%	23.1%	.120	.154	.120
Total	103	444	8	3	11.3%	15.3%	.327	.414	.454

Role: Second Division Regular
Risk: High – Low power output R/R first base is a tough path for any prospect. Anthony has shown a good approach and high line drive rate at each level, but he will need to prove that against higher minors pitching.
Summary: Anthony might have gone on day 2 of the draft in 2023 if not for a gambling allegation (there was no punishment or conclusion of guilt). He showed moderate power in college, but also the ability to get hits and work counts. In professional ball, he has shown much of the same. He put up modest exit velocity numbers with Clearwater and only hit 8 home runs on the season. He posted a .327 average thanks to a staggering 31.6% line drive rate across all of his stops. He needs to elevate the ball more to get to home run power, and while he may not be a 30 home run hitter, he probably needs to get to at least 15-20 home run power. Some of that might just come from driving the right pitches to the pull side, which he did infrequently all year. He has shown plate discipline to be able to make that sort of change, as he chases at a low rate and handles off speed pitches well. Anthony played first this season, but has some experience in an outfield corner in college, and he has the athleticism that he should be able to give it a go. He received a minor league gold glove for his work at first base, and is definitely a plus there.
2025 Outlook: Anthony ended the year with Reading and should return as the primary first baseman. He could possibly see time in an outfield corner if his bat improves. He will need to tap into more power, and Reading is a good place to show if that work comes true.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: UR

26. Alirio Ferrebus, C

Age: 19 (9/12/05)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in 2023
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’2” 174lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
PHR (DSL)	14	51	3	2	15.7%	5.9%	.375	.471	.725
PHI (FCL)	10	41	0	1	0.0%	14.6%	.324	.366	.378
Total	24	92	3	3	8.7%	9.7%	.351	.424	.558

Role: Bat First Catcher
Risk: Extreme – Ferrebus has exciting offensive potential for a catcher, but he is not a lock to stay behind the plate. It might be a stretch for his bat to play at another position.
Summary: Ferrebus hit well in a very small sample as a 17 year old in the DSL in 2023, but due to other catchers in the Phillies system he repeated his time in the DSL. It didn’t take very long for him to prove he shouldn’t still be there. He was moved stateside, but had an ankle injury after 10 games and then didn’t play again until the Dominican fall instructs. At the plate he has a relatively quiet setup with good bat speed, feel for getting the bat on the ball, and plus raw power. He has some of the general issues of young players, where he swings and makes contact with pitches he probably shouldn’t be swinging at, and the proclivity to chase was exploited a bit more in the FCL. It is an intriguing offensive skill set if he can catch. It is too early to say that Ferrebus cannot catch, he is a 19 year old with 17 total games behind the plate. He has the athleticism and body control when hitting that you could see carry over to defense. Right now however, he stabs a lot when he receives and generally looks more mechanical, like he is thinking about catching rather than it coming naturally. His arm strength is also probably more towards average (he had 25 stolen bases against in 56 innings in the DSL), and he is not quick with his footwork and release. Right now he is mixing in at first like most of their low minors catchers, but if he does have to move out from behind the plate, there is a chance he could handle an outfield corner.
2025 Outlook: Ferrebus is still stuck behind some of the Phillies other catchers, so starting his season in the FCL before moving to the Threshers once Tait and/or Rosario is moved up makes some sense.
ETA: 2029
Previous Rank: UR

This group is large, 24 players, and represents a great mass at the bottom of the system, and while I don’t know if there is a large drop off between 26 and 27, this sort of represents some of the struggle with the system, a poor 2024 draft, poor international signings, and trades that have left the whole thing rather thin. If I appear not excited about the system, this is the reason why. I don’t dislike these players, I just am not inspired by the back of the list. Don’t worry it will get better as we climb.

27. Carter Mathison, OF

Age: 22 (1/26/03)
Acquired: Drafted in the 5th Round of the 2024 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: L/L
H/W: 6’2” 215lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (Lvl)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
CLW (A-)	11	44	0	6	25.0%	25.0%	.207	.477	.241

Role: Bench Outfielder Who Can Stand in Center Field
Risk: High – Mathison has a history of a solid approach and power in college, but has shown no power with wood bats. For now he can play center field, and in the long term he should be able to handle it in a pinch in a bench role.
Summary: Mathison had a great freshman year, and then declining production his next two college seasons. After hitting just 3 extra base hits in the Cape Cod League in 2023, he managed just a double in 13 pro games. His pro exit velocity numbers were poor on a very small number of balls in play. He also showed zone contact issues and problems against offspeed pitches. The one positive is that he kept his chase rate down while swinging at pitches in the zone, which backs up the solid approach numbers in college. Defensively, Mathison will probably play a corner for his time in the Phillies system, with some exceptions for mixing and matching, and he should be a good defender out there. The overall hope is that there is some strength or bat speed training the Phillies have in store for him that will help bring out enough power for the approach to work.
2025 Outlook: Mathison will be in the jumble of outfielders competing for spots in Jersey Shore or joining the kids in Clearwater.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: N/A

28. John Spikerman, OF

Age: 21 (4/2/03)
Acquired: Drafted in the 3rd Round of the 2024 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: S/R
H/W: 6’0” 190lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
CLW (A-)	17	75	0	7	12.0%	26.7%	.226	.360	.323

Role: Bench Outfielder Who Can Play Centerfield
Risk: High – Spikerman should be a plus defensive outfielder in all three spots with plus plus speed, which should keep his floor decently high. However, he has yet to show any amount of power while striking out too much when presented with good pitching.
Summary: The Phillies took Spikerman in the 3rd round, announced him as a shortstop (a position he has only played once since high school), and then proceeded to play him only in the outfield. Despite having great speed, Spikerman has rarely been a prolific base runner, but he should be a good defender. In the Phillies system, he is likely to play all over the outfield due to the other center fielders present, but from a pure skill set he should be a positive on defense. The bat is the real question. He hit .368 as a junior against college defenses with fairly limited power. In his small sample pro debut he had a 90th percentile exit velocity of 95.3 mph and topped out at 103.1 mph while swinging and whiffing often with very poor numbers vs secondary pitches, a below average zone contact rate, and a decently high chase rate. It would be easier to write off the 17 game sample size if he had not struggled in similar ways in the Cape Cod League after his sophomore year.
2025 Outlook: Given the round he was drafted in and his school pedigree, Spikerman could open the season with the BlueClaws. He may not get to actual power in that park, but he will need to show some impact.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: N/A

29. Jalvin Arias, OF

Age: 18 (10/1/06)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in 2024
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’2” 230lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
PHR (DSL)	14	56	2	1	21.4%	35.7%	.233	.411	.372

Role: Everyday Regular
Risk: Extreme – Arias has some contact issues, but he also only played in 14 games before being injured, and 14 games in the DSL is not really a sample size.
Summary: Arias was the Phillies top international signing in the 2024 class. He is a thick right handed hitting outfielder with a long torso and limbs. His at least plus raw power is evident, and he can get to it easily. In his time in the DSL and Instructs he wasn’t a free swinger, but he has some contact holes. Arias played some center field this season, but is going to be a corner outfielder in the long term. Overall, the results weren’t horrendous this year, but the missed time wasn’t great, and he still is of an archetype that the Phillies have struggled to identify and develop well.
2025 Outlook: Given roster constraints, it feels like Arias would repeat the DSL with a trip stateside if things go well. However, given the size of his bonus it would not be shocking if he started in the complex.
ETA: 2029
Previous Rank: N/A

30. Griff McGarry, RHP

Age: 25 (6/8/99)
Acquired: Drafted in the 5th Round of the 2021 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’2” 190lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB%	K%
JS (A+)	1	0	0-0	1.0	0.00	0.0	0.0	0.0%	66.7%
LHV (AAA)	29	0	2-1	30.2	4.70	6.8	0.9	24.5%	27.2%
Glendale (AFL)	5	4	2-0	12.0	3.75	6.0	0.0	20.8%	28.3%
Total	35	4	4-1	43.2	4.33	6.4	0.0	23.2%	28.1%

Role: Middle Reliever
Risk: High – High seems to understate that McGarry walked 47 batters in 43.2 innings this season. However, even with no control, McGarry has limited damage and his slider has a chance to be a primary pitch for a major league reliever.
Summary: The idea of Griff McGarry will always be better than the actual version of Griff McGarry. His control and delivery somehow visually look better while being a 10 on the 20-80 scale. The Phillies continue to tinker with his delivery and role to try and find something that makes him more comfortable, but it has generally not gone great even if he looked surprisingly durable in short starts. The pure stuff has backed up too, he is no longer 94-97 touching 99 with a flat fastball with solid ride, he is now more 93-95 touching 96-97 with the same flatness but a little less ride, and he just has not gotten the same amount of whiffs and chases on it. His high 80s slider/cutter is his best pitch, and if he makes the majors it might be his most used pitch. He still has a sweeper that he will mix in as well. The key as always will be finding consistency and something approaching below average command, but there is a path here where he is an infuriating 6th inning arm as soon as the 2025 season.
2025 Outlook: McGarry should return to AAA where he will try to throw more strikes and battle the rest of the AAA bullpen for what should be some churn at the edge of the major league bullpen.
ETA: 2025
Previous Rank: 15

31. Guillermo Rosario, C

Age: 19 (4/22/05)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in 2022
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’2” 190lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
PHI (FCL)	51	201	4	2	11.9%	27.4%	.237	.338	.385
CLW (A-)	12	39	1	0	2.6%	30.8%	.194	.231	.278
Total	63	240	5	2	10.4%	27.9%	.229	.321	.361

Role: Second Catcher
Risk: Extreme – Rosario’s glove might be good enough that his bat can be a negative, and his bat in 2024 was good for 1 month of the 4 he played.
Summary: Rosario looked destined for a huge breakout, hitting .299/.388/.567 over the first month of the FCL season. He had some contact issues, but his power looked like a very intriguing tool going forward. However, after that first month he only had 6 extra base hits in 44 games and his contact issues spiraled before his season ended with an injury in August. There are good underlying power numbers for Rosario if he can make enough contact, hitting the ball over 108 mph in the FCL and running 102.9 mph 90th percentile EV in a very tiny sample size in the FSL. If he can just be a catcher who is below average in other aspects and hits one out occasionally he might have a future because of his glove. Rosario presents a solid athletic target behind the plate and already receives praise as a team leader. He controlled the running game and made one of the most heads up plays you will ever see a catcher make. All told, it wasn’t the huge breakout that looked impending, but Rosario is on the prospect map now.
2025 Outlook: There are quite a few catchers in Florida right now, but Rosario probably has an inside path on being Eduardo Tait’s primary partner behind the plate for the Threshers to open the season.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: UR

32. Trent Farquhar, 2B

Age: 24 (3/12/01)
Acquired: Signed as an Undrafted Free Agent by the Phillies in 2023 
B/T: L/R
H/W: 5’7” 185lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
CLW (A-)	32	144	1	9	24.3%	18.1%	.314	.493	.429
JS (A+)	38	172	0	19	12.8%	19.8%	.257	.386	.336
REA (AA)	5	20	0	0	10.0%	5.0%	.389	.450	.444
Total	78	345	1	28	17.1%	18.3%	.285	.433	.374

Role: Bench Infielder
Risk: High – Farquhar can play shortstop, but he really is a second baseman, and he does not have the power to be an everyday player there unless he hits at an unprecedented rate.
Summary: Farquhar is the type of player that is very fun to watch and will draw a bunch of cliches that are also probably not unwarranted due to his size and way he plays the game. Farquhar is listed at 5’7” and really does not look an inch over that and is already solidly built. He has a real simple swing from the left side that has below average power (99.1 mph 90th percentile EV with Clearwater), but might have more strength than he shows. He has a great approach and makes plenty of line drive contact, and in the minors that plays well. He is a plus runner, but he isn’t a burner. He plays really hard and seems to do many of the little things. Primarily a second baseman, he will get time at short and third, and probably will be asked to get more time there if his long term future is on a bench. Unless he suddenly taps into power or just continues to hit an outlier outcome, it is a really tough profile as a starting player. He probably ends up more as the bench guy you like but you worry the manager likes a bit too much.
2025 Outlook: Farquhar ended the year at Reading, and he probably returns there to be Aidan Miller’s double play partner. He could see time with the IronPigs late in the year.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: UR

33. Jordan Viars, OF

Age: 21 (7/18/03)
Acquired: Drafted in the 3rd Round of the 2021 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: L/L
H/W: 6’4” 215lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
CLW (A-)	64	265	12	2	11.3%	30.6%	.252	.355	.491
JS (A+)	27	105	2	0	10.5%	39.0%	.180	.276	.247
Total	91	370	14	2	11.1%	33.0%	.232	.332	.422

Role: Strongside Platoon OF/DH
Risk: Extreme – Viars struck out nearly 40% of the time after his promotion to Jersey Shore and is already unplayable vs LHPs. Only Kyle Schwarber on the major league team hit a ball harder than Viars did this year, so his raw power is special.
Summary: Despite being in his 4th season and already being quite large, Jordan Viars only turned 21 last July. His first few years had been marred by injuries and inconsistency, and it looks like much of the same was happening in 2024. He then hit .299/.391/.563 across May and June with a very good (for him) 27.8% K%. Things dropped off precipitously from there, with him going 23 games at Jersey Shore without an extra base hit before hitting 2 home runs in the last series of the year. He swings and misses a ton, posting a 74.6% zone contact rate with the Threshers to go with some large chase and whiff rates vs offspeed. He does, however, hit the ball hard. His 90th percentile exit velocity was not the best on the Threshers, but at 105.5mph it was 93rd percentile in the Florida State League according to Rob Orr’s metrics, and his max exit velocity of 114 mph was 99th percentile. He was also a disaster vs lefties with the Phillies already shielding him, hitting .086/.273/.114 in 44 plate appearances. It is very likely that Viars cannot make enough contact to even really make AA work, but his power potential is one of those tools that, even if he can tap into it in a limited capacity, might give him major league upside.
2025 Outlook: Viars took enormous strides from 2023 to 2024 and he is going to need to do it again in a return to Jersey Shore.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: UR

34. Micah Ottenbreit, RHP

Age: 21 (5/7/03)
Acquired: Drafted in the 4th Round of the 2021 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’4” 190lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB%	K%
CLW (A-)	19	19	3-9	94.0	4.88	8.4	0.8	10.0%	24.1%

Role: #5 Starter
Risk: Extreme – Ottenbreit was healthy all year after missing two years to Tommy John surgery, recovery, and setbacks. He pitched a full season of innings, but his pitches have him looking like a project without a clear path to a major league role.
Summary: After missing essentially two years, Ottenbreit getting on the mound and making 19 starts and pitching 94 innings is a huge success. As for on the mound success it was much more mixed. It starts with his fastball just being a terrible pitch right now. He throws a sinker that doesn’t get a ton of sink, but does get a lot of armside run. He lost some velocity over the course of the year, but it is a pitch that averages about 92 mph and will get near 94-95 at its peak. His zone contact rate on most of his pitches was pretty poor, but hitters made contact on 93% of the 243 swings they took in the zone on his fastball and 87% overall. The movement profile might not get better (though maybe a poor 4-seamer could help mix things up), so the velocity and the command will have to. In theory, a highly horizontal fastball would pair well with what is a very horizontal arsenal overall. Ottenbreit’s slider at about 83.5mph gets more vertical break than maybe you want from a sweeper, but he pairs it with a curveball with the same sweep but a 2.5 mph velocity and 5” of vertical break difference. The result has been a lot of called strikes in the zone and a decent number of whiffs outside of it. His changeup sits about 85 mph, and has some decent drop, but somehow gets less armside run than his fastball. He threw it more as the year went on, but it had pedestrian results. All of this is to say Ottenbreit is a project. The feel for spin lays a foundation where he probably needs to add a cutter or hard slider and 4-seamer and should be able to do so. He is young enough and now removed enough from surgery that he should be able to build some velocity as well. The Phillies have molded and made changes to this type of arm, so it is worth hanging on for another look.
2025 Outlook: Ottenbreit is entering his age 22 season and put in a full set of innings in Clearwater, he should open in the BlueClaws rotation.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: 36

35. Max Lazar, RHP

Age: 25 (6/3/99)
Acquired: Drafted in the 11th Round of the 2017 Draft by the Brewers. Signed as a minor league free agent with the Phillies in December 2023
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’1” 200lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB%	K%
REA (AA)	8	0	0-0	10.1	0.00	2.6	0.0	0.0%	52.9%
LHV (AAA)	29	0	4-3	33.0	2.45	6.5	0.3	7.5%	28.4%
PHI (MLB)	11	0	0-0	13.2	4.61	8.6	1.3	3.7%	16.7%
MiLB Total	37	0	4-3	43.1	1.87	5.6	0.2	6.0%	33.3%

Role: Multi Inning Middle Reliever
Risk: Medium – Lazar is major league ready, the real question is whether he falls below the threshold to pitch lower leverage innings in a bullpen.
Summary: In his second full year in the bullpen, Lazar blazed through AA and AAA before making his major league debut. Lazar has an outlier delivery, posting near top of the scale horizontal release and extension. His fastball has fringe average velocity for a reliever, averaging 93.6 mph, and comes in fairly steep with below average ride, but natural cut. He has a big curveball around 80 mph with -18” of IVB and a mid to high 80s gyro slider with a little less horizontal break. None of his pitches had much success in the zone in the majors or AAA, but he was able to get hitters to expand the zone while also getting called strikes in the zone. He threw his fastball less in the majors last year, but at 58% it was still likely too much. Overall, he lacks the dominant pitch to work in high leverage, but he has enough weirdness he could carve out a multi inning lower leverage role.
2025 Outlook: Lazar will compete for a spot in the MLB bullpen, but since he has remaining options, it is likely he will start in Lehigh Valley, but he should be up and down all year.
ETA: 2024
Previous Rank: UR

36. Angel Liranzo, LHP

Age: 18 (8/5/06)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in 2023
B/T: L/L
H/W: 6’1” 172lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB%	K%
CLW (A-)	1	0	1-0	2.1	3.86	3.9	0.0	27.3%	18.2%

Role: #4 Starter
Risk: Extreme – A back injury limited Liranzo to just one official game in his age 17 season. He has a solid base, but he is a long way away.
Summary: Liranzo probably would have spent 2024 repeating the DSL as a 17 year old, but a back injury cost him almost the whole year and he made his only official appearance with the Threshers late in the year. He returned to the Dominican Republic and pitched a decent amount in the instructional league. He is not a big guy, and there are certainly Ranger Suarez size and delivery comparisons to be made. His arsenal is also similar to the Venezuelan lefty’s at the same age, sitting 88-91 with a poorly shaped fastball and a sinker. He has an advanced changeup for his age that he throws in the low 80s and a low 80s slider that looks decent. He threw a curveball in 2023, but I did not see one in the 5 games that I logged this year. He has a really good feel for pitching for his age and experience. He will need to grow into at least below average velocity and likely have his changeup become close to plus to make it work. If one wants to stick to the comps, it wasn’t until his age 21 season in A ball that Ranger saw enough velocity growth to become a notable prospect, and that is a time period 3 years away from now for Liranzo.
2025 Outlook: Liranzo should spend his age 18 season stateside, likely split between the FCL and unofficial complex leagues.
ETA: 2029
Previous Rank: 49

37. Enrique Segura, RHP

Age: 20 (12/19/04)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in 2022
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’3” 175lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB%	K%
PHI (FCL)	6	6	2-2	32.1	3.90	8.4	0.6	8.7%	22.5%
CLW (A-)	10	9	2-4	42.2	7.17	8.6	1.5	13.4%	21.6%
Total	16	15	4-6	75.0	5.76	8.5	1.1	11.4%	22.0%

Role: #5 Starting Pitcher
Risk: Extreme – Segura struggled in his cameo in Clearwater after some success in an FCL repeat, and his stuff has not progressed in a meaningful way over the last few seasons.
Summary: Segura had some buzz in 2023, had a poor year in the FCL, and then was sort of forgotten in the FCL again. His command was improved this year, and he was the front end of an early season no-hitter. His stuff however was a bit more lackluster. His fastballs sit in the low-90s, and while he has flashed the ability to touch the mid to high 90s in short bursts, the high end was more in the 94 range this season. He gets a lot of lateral movement on his sinker, but hitters do a good job of getting the bat on it. His curveballs can look good, but they don’t have enough bite to get swings and misses. His changeup was his best pitch, as its lateral movement plays like his sinker. It doesn’t look like Segura is trending towards a bat missing arsenal, so it will be imperative that he suppresses hard contact. To do so he will need to reach more of the higher velocity he has flashed, and he will need to improve his command. He was able to log 75 innings and 16 starts as a 19 year old, while showing he could pitch at least 6 innings deep into a game, so there is at least a starting pitcher stamina base despite his slight frame.
2025 Outlook: Segura should return to the Thresher’s rotation and could spend the full season in Florida again.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: 25

38. Andrew Walling, LHP

Age: 25 (10/29/99)
Acquired: Signed as an Undrafted Free Agent by the Phillies in 2022
B/T: L/L
H/W: 6’2” 220lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB%	K%
JS (A+)	30	0	7-0	36.1	1.73	5.0	0.7	15.9%	28.5%
REA (AA)	14	0	1-0	17.0	3.18	10.6	0.5	4.1%	32.4%
Total	44	0	8-0	53.1	2.19	6.8	0.7	12.0%	29.8%

Role: Middle Reliever
Risk: High – It is really hard to make the jump from being a good AA reliever to a good MLB reliever when your stuff isn’t overwhelming. Walling’s stuff is solid, but not overwhelming.
Summary: Walling continued to use the remade arsenal he had in 2023 to 2024. His fastball, which has some natural cut, sits 92 to 96. He backs that up with a high 80s cutter and low 80s sweeper. The combination actually made him more deadly to righties than to lefties. He struggled with control in May, but got back on track in June before walking just 6 in 23 innings from July onward. He had two back to back bad outings with Reading, but overall walked 3 with 24 strikeouts in 17 AA innings. His .432 BABIP does leave his overall line a bit wanting. Walling isn’t an overwhelming force, but he might be one of the organization’s best left handed relief prospects by default. He has pitched multiple innings at a time as well, making him not the same as Tanner Banks, but maybe a similar role.
2025 Outlook: The Phillies style is to stack AAA with AAAA caliber arms to open the year, so Walling likely starts the year in Reading again. If he performs well, there is really not much runway needed for him to make the jump through AAA to the majors.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: 33

39. Alexander De Los Santos, RHP

Age: 18 (8/23/06)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in 2023
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’1” 160lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB%	K%
PHR (DSL)	11	9	1-3	38.0	2.13	4.3	0.0	12.2%	24.4%

Role: #4 Starter
Risk: Extreme – De Los Santos is an 18 year old in a body that lacks current physicality. He struggled with control for much of the year before going on a hot streak late in the year.
Summary: De Los Santos was one of the Phillies youngest signings in 2023 (born a mere 4 days before Eduardo Tait). He barely pitched in 2023, but was a starting pitcher for much of his age 17 season in 2024. He is small and a bit lanky, with a drop and drive delivery. I don’t have pitch movement metrics for DSL, but his fastball seems to have natural sinker motion. He generally has sat 89-93, but can touch 94. It looks like he has two distinct breaking balls in a high 70s curveball and low 80s slider. The slider could use more velocity and bite, while the curveball looks to be more vertical and is more short and tight than loopy. If they are actually one pitch, there is a large movement variation that could use smoothing (and he should then also add a slider). His changeup does not have much separation from his fastball, looking sort of like a slow sinker. His command is below average, which is not surprising given his age and level. He probably has another tick or two at least of velocity in his frame, and looks like a sort of Jean Cabrera starter kit that will probably need a year or two before he even starts to look like that type of prospect.
2025 Outlook: De Los Santos could repeat the DSL as a 19 year old, but given his success there this season, a trip stateside makes the most sense.
ETA: 2029
Previous Rank: UR

40. Daniel Harper, RHP

Age: 25 (6/1/99)
Acquired: Drafted in the 17th Round of the 2022 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’4” 225lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB%	K%
JS (A+)	23	0	0-3	26.0	2.08	5.2	0.4	9.6%	36.5%
REA (AA)	21	0	3-1	25.0	3.60	8.6	0.7	9.6%	22.1%
Total	44	0	3-4	51.0	2.82	6.9	0.5	9.6%	29.3%

Role: Middle Reliever
Risk: High – Harper has solid stuff, but not overwhelming. He only has a year of consistently throwing strikes as well.
Summary: The 2023 season was a disaster for Daniel Harper, but he bounced back in a big way in 2024. He took a large step forward in commanding his pitches, and his velocity went from averaging around 94 touching 97 to averaging more near 96 and touching up to 99, and he has added a sinker. He has a harder slider in the upper 80s that doesn’t seem to generate a ton of whiffs yet, and he still has a low 90s cutter. He didn’t get as many swings and misses in AA and the quality of his slider just doesn’t look to be enough to offset the fastball largely being about velocity and not movement. If he can keep making minor improvements he could be an up and down arm with a chance to stick as the 6th or 7th best arm in a bullpen.
2025 Outlook: Harper isn’t MLB ready and only spent a partial year in Reading, so a return trip to AA seems in order. He will be Rule 5 eligible after the season, so a big season could get him to the edge of the majors.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: UR

41. Andrew Baker, RHP

Age: 25 (3/24/00)
Acquired: Drafted in the 11th Round of the 2021 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’3” 190lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB%	K%
JS (A+)	16	0	1-0	17.0	1.59	3.7	0.0	12.3%	46.2%
REA (AA)	27	0	4-2	33.1	6.21	10.3	0.5	14.9%	26.7%
Total	43	0	5-2	50.1	4.65	8.0	0.4	14.2%	32.3%

Role: Middle Reliever
Risk: High – Baker has velocity, but still has well below average control and has struggled at the AA level.
Summary: It is never good when you get demoted to A ball in your season repeating AA. However, it is good when you take that demotion and strike out 30 of the 65 batters you face with only 8 walks. Baker wasn’t elite upon his return to Reading after his trip to Jersey Shore, but after a terrible 2023 season it looks like there might be some progress. Baker was more 95-97 early in the year, but down the stretch he was back to sitting 96 to 99 and touching 100. His primary secondary pitch is still a low 80s curveball that he still spikes a bit much, but it has the power and break to make hitters look silly. Baker still struggles with command, but the control looks to be getting slightly better. He may just end up being a guy who gets a bunch of chances because of his velocity, but there is something to work with where he could be a positive contributor in non-high leverage innings for a big league team.
2025 Outlook: Baker should be right on the line of guys who compete for a AAA spot, but if he doesn’t make it, he probably is near the front of the line once the vets move out. He is a hot month of throwing strikes away from being a major league option.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: 30

42. Joel Dragoo, OF

Age: 22 (1/8/03)
Acquired: Drafted in the 7th Round of the 2024 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’2” 200lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
CLW (A-)	15	65	0	3	23.1%	21.5%	.319	.508	.447

Role: Bench Outfielder
Risk: High – Dragoo hit for power in his junior year and does have a good approach, but he isn’t a center fielder and hasn’t hit for power outside his college season.
Summary: After a poor freshman season and ok sophomore season, Dragoo had a monster junior season, hitting .401/.508/.797 for Presbyterian. The problem has been that his 18 home runs were 4 more than he had hit the previous two years combined (including summer league), and in 31 games between the draft league and pro ball he managed 7 doubles as his full extra base output. The small sample size underlying numbers don’t tell a rosy tale with his 25 balls in play having a 90th percentile exit velocity of 97.6 mph with a max of 100.3 mph. The underlying approach numbers are much better. He had some in zone contact and whiff rate issues, but he swung at the pitches in the zone and rarely chased. The offensive profile is going to come down to whether his pro debut was an aberration, and he can hit the ball hard with a wood bat, or if he just was a college numbers mirage. Defensively, he played center field in college, but is already headed for a corner where he shouldn’t be bad, but it won’t give the offensive profile any slack.
2025 Outlook: Some, but maybe not all of the 2024 draft class of college outfielders will go to Jersey Shore to open the season. Dragoo might have to outperform John Spikerman, Carter Mathison, and the 2024 Threshers to break camp a BlueClaw and not a Thresher.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: N/A

43. Casey Steward, RHP

Age: 23 (8/2/01)
Acquired: Drafted in the 19th Round of the 2023 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’5” 200lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB%	K%
CLW (A-)	12	10	4-2	50.2	3.38	7.5	0.7	9.0%	24.5%
JS (A+)	10	10	4-3	52.0	3.46	6.8	0.2	13.7%	21.7%
Total	22	20	8-5	102.2	3.42	7.1	0.4	11.4%	23.1%

Role: Back End Starter/Bulk Reliever
Risk: High – Steward does not miss that many bats and will show bouts of control issues. He has average fastball velocity, but poor shape, so his whole profile is held together with solid, but not great secondary pitches.
Summary: Steward is the sort of model of back end starting pitcher the Phillies have accumulated through the draft. He is tall, but doesn’t have great extension, so his four seam fastball shape is sort of pedestrian, and his sinker is quite hittable because it doesn’t really sink enough. Both sit mostly 92 to 95 and he can touch up to 97, and long term he should throw them less and use them to set up his offspeed pitches more. He comes with a high 80s cutter/slider and low 80s sweeper, which gives him some weapons vs righties and lefties. His changeup shows some promise, but he doesn’t have a great feel for it yet. His command can also be spotty, and when hitters aren’t chasing the breaking balls it can get a bit ugly. He is going to need to make improvements across the board, but he has the frame and the track record of logging innings, so if he can make some of these improvements there may be something here.
2025 Outlook: There are probably 1-2 Reading rotation spots up for grabs and Steward should be in competition for one of them. Assuming he doesn’t he likely goes to the Jersey Shore rotation until a spot opens up.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: UR

44. Nikau Pouaka-Grego, 2B

Age: 20 (9/13/04)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in 2022
B/T: L/R
H/W: 5’10” 175lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
CLW (A-)	54	205	2	1	11.7%	21.0%	.198	.314	.302

Role: Bench Infielder
Risk: Extreme – Pouaka-Grego does not play shortstop and currently is not hitting for enough power to really profile at second or third. He is young enough that maybe he can get back on track after the injury.
Summary: Pouaka-Grego had a stellar debut season in 2022 at age 17, but tore up his knee in winter ball that offseason, missed all of 2023, and was clearly not at full strength for 2024. He struggled to hit the ball hard, while seeing a drop in his in zone contact rate as he chased more. He doesn’t have the size to hit for a ton of power, but he is capable of squaring up the ball more than he did in 2024. He needs to be a high contact, line drive type hitter to make his offensive profile work at second or third. He is fine at both of those positions, but his lack of shortstop chops makes a utility ceiling have to be an offense first one. He will play all of 2025 at age 20 and has been able to get some solid work augmenting his season with time in the ABL this winter.
2025 Outlook: Given Saltiban, Rincon, and DeMartini likely at Jersey Shore and Caba’s trade, there is probably an infield spot in Clearwater with Pouaka-Grego’s name on it to start the year. If he gets back on track, he could see Jersey Shore by the summer.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: 27

45. Raylin Heredia, OF

Age: 21 (11/10/03)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in 2021
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’0” 174
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
CLW (A-)	70	289	8	9	7.3%	33.6%	.225	.309	.428

Role: 4th Outfielder
Risk: Extreme – There just are not many hitters who swing and miss at offspeed pitches in low-A that succeed, and Heredia swung and missed at a lot of them.
Summary: Heredia looked like he was breaking out in early 2023 with the FCL Phillies before having a mixed debut with the Threshers. Unfortunately all of the bad trend lines of 2023 carried over to 2024. He had poor in zone contact rates, chased at a high rate, and swung and missed at a large share of secondary pitches. He has above average raw power and his swing gets to it on the pull side decently. He has a chance to be a solid right field defender with a plus plus arm and enough athleticism to overcome some adventures. There is an everyday right fielder outcome still in there, but it is stretching the probability curve. He will need to show progress in his approach in 2025 to stay on prospect lists.
2025 Outlook: Heredia is due for a return trip to the Threshers having logged under 300 plate appearances there last season.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: 20

46. Aaron Combs, RHP

Age: 23 (12/28/01)
Acquired: Drafted in the 8th Round of the 2024 Draft by the White Sox. Traded to the Phillies for Tyler Gilbert in January 2025.
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’3” 190lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB%	K%
KAN (A-)	6	0	2-0	7.2	0.00	5.9	0.0	12.1%	39.4%

Role: Middle Reliever
Risk: Extreme – Combs has a very weird breaking ball and below average velocity, and the weird breaking ball probably needs to end up special, or he will need to find more velocity in pro ball to have long term success.
Summary: Combs may have had one of the best debuts of any drafted pitcher. His stats do not include his 3 postseason appearances where he walked 1 and struck out 12 giving him a full season line of 12.1 IP 6 H 2 R 0 ER 5 BB 25 K, with opposing hitters managing a .140/.260/.140 line. He has a low slot and throws a pair of fastballs in the low 90s. His 4 seam fastball has good ride and run, and his sinker has good run. He works them up in the zone and shows a proclivity for throwing the sinker glove side and running it back over the plate to lefties and righties. Throwing the fastball up sets up his curveball. It has big break and sweep thanks to a very high spin rate and his lower slot (think Aaron Nola’s curveball). He will throw it in the zone to righties and lefties, and will also bury it gloveside. It sits in the mid to high 70s, which does raise a little bit of concern. He looks to also work in a mid 80s cutter, which will be important against lefties. Combs is the ideal guy to get into professional ball and add velocity, and if he does, he could really pop like Kerkering did a few years ago. If this is just how hard he throws, it will really come down to command, which can be a bit shaky right now, as his pitches have the shape to get chases and whiffs in the right location, but the lack of velocity is likely to make them hittable if he leaves them in the wrong part of the plate.
2025 Outlook: Combs ended the year in low-A and had success, assuming he has a good camp he should break camp with the BlueClaws.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: N/A

47. Titan Hayes, RHP

Age: 23 (11/12/01)
Acquired: Drafted in the 11th Round of the 2024 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’2” 218lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB%	K%
CLW (A-)	6	0	0-1	7.0	3.86	5.1	1.3	18.5%	18.5%

Role: Middle Reliever
Risk: High – Hayes is a reliever in A-ball without a large track record against high level competition.
Summary: The Phillies prioritized Hayes in the 11th round of the 2024 draftee as he was in the middle of a dominant run in the Cape Cod League. His debut in pro ball was a mixed bag, made worse by 5 earned runs and 5 walks in his last two games spanning 1.1 innings. Hayes threw two pitches with the Phillies. His fastball comes in somewhat flat, but it comes with more sinker movement than 4-seam ride (Statcast separated it into two different pitches). It also lacks elite velocity, averaging a bit over 96 and touching up to 99, which is more just plus for a modern RH  reliever. His breaking ball is his better pitch, and it is likely that in the long term he throws it more than his fastball. It was labeled as a cutter and slider, but it has two plane movement at about 86 mph and generated solid whiff and chase rates, as well as having success in the zone. Hayes needs to work on his command, but he also wasn’t a walk disaster. It would not be surprising if the Phillies split him into more of a distinct sinker and four seamer to keep hitters more off balance.
2025 Outlook: Hayes is one of the most likely of the 2024 draftee relievers to start in Jersey Shore. If he does return to Clearwater he could move quickly through the system if he has success.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: N/A

48. Marcus Morgan, RHP

Age: 22 (12/27/02)
Acquired: Drafted in the 9th Round of the 2024 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’3” 210lbs
2024 Stats: Did not appear in a game
Role: Probably a Reliever
Risk: Extreme – Morgan did not pitch after the draft, and before the draft managed just 54.1 innings in 16 games (13) starts with a 7.45 ERA and 53 walks for Iowa. He has size, athleticism, and stuff all qualities the Phillies have had success with in recent drafts.
Summary: This is a complete shot in the dark based on the Phillies developmental successes. Morgan did not pitch in a game after the draft either for the Threshers or in the Bridge League (as far as I could tell). For Iowa he was wild, but effective in 2023 and just plain wild in 2024. Over his college career he posted 5.67 ERA with 125 walks in 135 innings. According to pre-draft reports from Baseball America and MLB Pipeline his fastball will sit in the low 90s, but he can get into the upper 90s. There are varying reports of his breaking ball that likely stem from some inconsistency, but at minimum he seems to have both a sweeper and cutter. He also has a changeup and curveball. It is a starter’s arsenal and there is enough upside to have a legitimate starting upside. He is also probably the biggest project they have put into their system among top 10 round picks, so the expectations need to be low. He could flame out with poor control in low-A, or the Phillies could continue their streak of breakout draft arms.
2025 Outlook: Given he went into the black box of the complex it is hard to know what the Phillies feel like his role is going forward, but they started George Klassen and Alex McFarlane in the rotation. Either way he probably begins with the Threshers.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: N/A

49. Anderson Navas, C

Age: 18 (2/16/07)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in 2024
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’2” 175lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
PHW (DSL)	47	184	3	8	5.4%	35.3%	.181	.246	.295

Role: Everyday Regular
Risk: Is there something beyond extreme? – Navas is young and has a good frame, and you can see the outlines of a good player. He is coming off a really brutal year offensively.
Summary: Navas looks impressive in a uniform. He is tall, lanky, and athletic and he moves in a way that looks right. However, his approach and pitch recognition were brutal and he looked overmatched at the DSL level. If he can somehow get over those issues, he has easy power and could be a plus offensive player based on his physicality. Defensively he is also a work in progress, but more in ways that make sense for a 17 year old catcher.
2025 Outlook: Navas will almost certainly return to the DSL to see if he can make more contact while polishing other parts of his game.
ETA: 2030
Previous Rank: N/A

50. Kodey Shojinaga, C

Age: 22 (2/22/03)
Acquired: Drafted in the 6th Round of the 2024 Draft by the Phillies
B/T: R/R
H/W: 5’10” 190lbs
2024 Stats:

Team (LVL)	G	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG
CLW (A-)	15	58	0	0	25.9%	6.9%	.143	.379	.143

Role: Backup catcher?
Risk: Extreme – Shojinaga might not be a catcher and he might not have much usable power, and unless he has an 80 grade hit tool, the rest of the profile might not work if he doesn’t catch.
Summary: Kodey Shojinaga primarily played second and third in college, but the Phillies moved him back behind the plate in his pro debut. Defensively, it is still a real work in progress, and while pro teams are generally better than colleges at developing catchers, it might be a stretch. A prolific collector of hits in college, Shojinaga only hit .143 in pro-ball, but in his 58 plate appearances posted some very impressive approach numbers, posting low chase rates, high in zone swing rates, high in zone contact rates, and overall low whiff rates, which helps explain the 15 walks to only 4 strikeouts. That is from August in low-A, so heavy skepticism must be used, but it is a skillset that would be very positive if not for how little damage he did. Shojinaga was not known for his raw power in college and posted bottom of the scale 90th percentile EV numbers in the pros, though with an intriguing max exit velocity. At the plate he resembles Phillies catcher Rafael Marchan, but Marchan is a plus defender who magically finds home run power when he plays in the majors. There are very few little power hitters who aren’t premium defenders, and looking across years you are looking at comps like Luis Arraez and Willians Astudillo. Astudillo had no position, never walked or hit for power, and ended up out of the league. Arraez is a 90 grade hitter who only posted a 106 OPS+ during his third batting title because he drew less walks and hit for less power. If Shojinaga cannot stick behind the plate, the path requires him to either unlock at least 2 grades of power or become a generationally great contact hitter. That is a lot to ask.
2025 Outlook: There is a slight logjam of catchers in the A-ball levels. There is a chance that Shojinaga gets bumped to Jersey Shore, but he may be more likely to join the C/DH/1B dance with Eduardo Tait and Guillermo Rosario in Clearwater.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: N/A