Phillies 2023 Midseason Prospect Ranking and Trade Thoughts

The week between the draft signing deadline and the trade deadline is a good time to take stock of the system, see where players now stand, and also look at how they fit into the deadline conversation. The Phillies system this year lacks obvious players to shop, and it lacks the depth to make a bunch of impact moves. There are pieces to make little moves and enough that the Phillies could take a big swing if something unexpectedly became available.

I did tiers in my opening day ranks, and for this the groups are 1, 2, 3-4, 5-6, 7-13, and 14-22. Within a group, I have a preference difference, but not a major value difference.

1. Andrew Painter, RHP (OD Rank: 1)

Summary: Unfortunately the entire report on Andrew Painter is injury news. He is one of the best pitchers in the minor leagues when healthy, but he isn’t healthy. His value at this point accounts for his injury and recovery time, so he is still their best prospect, he just won’t help them for a while.

Deadline Thoughts: There are scenarios where the Phillies could theoretically move Painter, but that is probably for one of the players where you cannot reasonably have an off limits list, and I don’t think those players are on the Phillies shopping list.

2. Mick Abel, RHP (OD Rank: 2)

Summary: With some of the initial reports in 2021 and Painter’s rapid rise in 2022, it is easy to forget that Mick Abel is 21 and in AA, and while not ahead of schedule, he isn’t behind. The warts are starting to show, and it is fair to say that some of the poor attributes are becoming trends. Abel’s fastball doesn’t have ideal shape, but he does miss bats in the zone with it because he has now ticked up to sitting 96-98 and touching 99. His slider was once his big secondary pitch, but he has struggled to land it for strikes and has a tendancy it to nibble. He has improved his curveball to be a real weapon, and it has good shape and tunnels well off the fastball. His changeup is a hard pitch in the low 90s that does show some promise and allows him to work the fastball low. He has worked on a cutter, and though  it has not factored in much, it would help his fastball up in the zone. Command continues to be the area of stagnation as Abel can throw the ball in the zone, but he struggles to throw his arsenal in a way that causes hitters to expand the zone. The consequence has been too many long counts and walks. Abel looked to be on ace trajectory for a while, but is trending more towards mid rotation with room for more. This is where it is important to note his youth, especially as he did not pitch in 2020 and missed a lot of 2021, and also that he is not physically filled out yet. It may be a longer development burn for Abel than expected, and that may include after he reaches the major leagues.

Deadline Thoughts: Depending on the org they are either going to view Abel as a young impact starting pitcher or they are going to see an arm already showing major warts against just ok competition. Abel is the biggest prospect trade piece the Phillies can put on the board, and he lacks the sure impact upside to be untouchable. I don’t get the sense the Phillies are looking to move Abel or shopping where the cost is Abel, so if he is moved it will be because something big and unexpected shakes free and Dombrowski pounces.

3. Justin Crawford, OF (OD Rank: 5)

Summary: Normally you say everything good and then hit it with the bad, so it might be worth starting with the bad with Justin Crawford. His contact quality is terrible, as he leads full season players in ground ball rate by a substantial margin and has posted an average launch angle near -10 degree every month. The problem comes from a swing that often looks disjointed and lacking in barrel control causing him to hit the top of the ball, rarely driving through it. At the low-A level his speed means he will still get on base, but it is not a plan that will work on higher levels. He is an aggressive swinger, but outside of sliders he has held good contact rates. He has hit the ball surprisingly hard given expectations, but not always consistently with his 90th percentile exit velocity ranking much better than his average exit velocity within the org. He is at least a plus plus runner and good base stealer. His speed translates to excellent center field defense as well. The swing and contact quality is a red flag, but the rest of the profile is a good one, and he is still 19 with room to fill out and time to improve.

Deadline Thoughts: The Phillies really like Crawford and they think they can close his flaws. He is still far enough away that he has no real implications for the 40 man roster or the major league team. Every team that wants to acquire him will point to the contact quality issues. He is probably not untouchable in trades, but unless the Phillies have secretly soured on him he is only going to be traded in a deal where the Phillies get back something close to star with years of control.

4. Aidan Miller, IF (OD Rank: N/A)

Summary: Miller was one of the better high school hitters in the draft coming into the year. The Phillies seem to be delaying moving him to third base, but that appears to be his future position. There are things about his swing that some evaluators don’t like, but he has great bat speed and has made it work against premium stuff as an amateur. He has a nice combination of safety and upside where he should provide power, hit, and patience without moving completely down the defensive spectrum.

Deadline Thoughts: Can’t trade him, even if you wanted to, and they don’t want to.

5. Griff McGarry, RHP (OD Rank: 3)

Summary: For the second season in a row Griff started the year on a delay because of an oblique injury. It wasn’t until late June that he was fully stretched out as he did a very Spring Training-like ramp up on site in Reading after a brief stop in Clearwater. His fastball has been a little less than in his breakout, sitting more mid 90s, but he has upper 90s occasionally. He still comes in low and flat, and the pitch is devastating up in the zone. He primarily has gone to a cutter and slider combination, both of which still are plus or better, but McGarry has run into times when he has no feel for the slider location. He still features a changeup and a curveball, and will mix in a sinker as well. McGarry is probably never going to be efficient enough to be a workhorse, but he has the stuff to turn over a lineup a few times making him more of a 5-6 inning starter than a reliever. Either way he will need to maintain his delivery consistency enough to throw strikes and especially land the breaking ball.

Deadline Thoughts: In a vacuum McGarry is a very logical trade piece, but with Andrew Painter being out for at least two years and Aaron Nola’s impending free agency, that means much like Mick Abel he cannot be cast away for a rental. If the Phillies don’t trust him as a starting pitcher and another team does then that might grease the wheels on a trade. If the Phillies acquire a starting pitcher with control or a long term impact bat, then he is probably in the trade.

6. Johan Rojas, OF (OD Rank: 6)

Summary: Rojas shot up lists in 2019 and as much as it looks like regression, he generally has made small incremental progress. He has gotten the ball in the air more, but he will still make a bunch of ground ball contact as he doesn’t always swing at the right pitches and has struggled to recognize offspeed pitches. He has tapped into his power a bit more, though playing in Reading will make some side eye the power jump some. He is still a plus plus runner and base stealer. Defensively he has taken full advantage of his speed, with great jumps and routes, making him a near elite defender in center field. There is still a large range of outcomes for a player in the major leagues (though he really should be in AA/AAA), and while he will show big upside he is more trending towards a speed and defense bottom of the lineup regular.

Deadline Thoughts: Pache and Rojas both occupy a similar buddy role to Brandon Marsh, and with injuries a 4th outfielder is going to play a lot depending on how things work with Schwarber and Harper. The Phillies can hold off on the question for a year by sending Rojas back to AAA in 2024. That puts Rojas in a position where the Phillies can trade him without opening up a long term hole, but they don’t need to move him for roster reasons. The Phillies likely would not move Rojas for a rental, but they have limited players of value to send for a regular with control, and Rojas could be available in such a trade.

7. Carlos De La Cruz, 1B/OF (OD Rank: 11)

Summary: Carlos De La Cruz has built on his breakout 2022 season by making a bunch of small improvements. His strikeout rate is down, he is putting the ball in the air to the outfield a bit more, and he has added first base to his defensive repertoire. He still swings and misses too much, doesn’t walk enough, and has some holes in the zone he still needs to correct. He has elite power to all fields and he hits RHPs (though he does struggle vs LHPs). He can play both outfield corners, first base, and can stand in center. He still has everyday upside with some impact ceiling, but there is still more time and development ahead.

Deadline Thoughts: De La Cruz is not currently on the 40 man roster and would be a minor league free agent after the season if not added. The Phillies have moved that type of player in trades, especially if they aren’t able to help the big league club. However, De La Cruz should be in AAA next season and at minimum offers interesting redundancy with his ability to play first and all three outfield positions. He has such a unique profile and upside that trade talks with him could involve a team loving him or undervaluing him. If a team loves him and it gets a deal done, the Phillies probably could move him, but the Phillies might be the team that values him the most.

8. William Bergolla, 2B/SS (OD Rank: 8)

Summary: Bergolla didn’t play much last year due to injury, and after a good spring the Phillies jumped him over the Florida Complex League right to low-A. Bergolla looked advanced in the DSL, but against older peers his feel for the game stands out even more. He has swung and missed at just about 2% of the pitches he has seen and on about 6% of his swings. He doesn’t swing very often (about 40%), and is especially patient against breaking balls. This has led to 17 walks to 8 strikeouts in 24 FSL games (as of 7/19). If you just selectively look at his batted ball data you would also be impressed as he has a line drive rate over 20%, a ground ball rate under 40%, and a small pop up rate, and his average launch angle of about 13 degrees maps to those outcomes. The problem is that at 82.7 mph, his average exit velocity is near the bottom of tracked Phillies hitters, and his 90th percentile exit velocity of 94.6mph is bottom of the org. There is definitely room for Bergolla to add strength, but he does not have the most projectable frame in the org. If he can add more impact to his swing he has the rest of the package. Bergolla can play shortstop and second base, and is a smooth defender.

Deadline Thoughts: The Phillies have generally protected their low minors players in trades. That means Bergolla is not untouchable, but if the Phillies believe he will add strength, then they will likely value him at a higher level than most other orgs will be looking to buy him at.

9. Hao Yu Lee, 2B/3B (OD Rank: 9)

Summary: The book on Lee is that he just hits, and that has largely been the case with the BlueClaws this year. The problem has been the power, and even while hitting much better away from the pitcher friendly ballpark at Jersey Shore, he has not had much impact in his bat. He has also struggled against right handed pitchers more than you would like. He is only 20 years old, but he doesn’t have a projectable frame where you expect him to grow into more strength, so the power will need to come more from approach and plate discipline. Defensively, second base looks to be his primary position, though he has moved around a little bit. He should be able to stick there, but doesn’t profile as a plus defender.

Deadline Thoughts: Lee is probably the best prospect the Phillies might move for a rental. While his bat is intriguing, he is at a position that won’t be opening up in the majors for some time. Unlike some of the other prospects in the system, he lacks a higher projectability that makes you worry you are selling low on his value.

10. Orion Kerkering, RHP (OD Rank: 22)

Summary: Kerkering is the big breakout pitcher of the Phillies system. With his full time move to the bullpen, his fastball has increased to sitting in the high 90s, touching up to 102. His slider is plus plus and he can sweep it out of the zone to righties and in on the feet of lefties. His control leads his command, and his stuff is good enough to get outs in the zone. He profiles as a late inning reliever and could be in the majors by early 2024.

Deadline Thoughts: It is difficult to value Kerkering because he is a relief prospect, but potentially an elite one. The Phillies will likely try to market him as an impact prospect and see if they can get another organization to bite on that. Despite the Phillies having a strong bullpen now, there really is no such thing as too much relief depth so Kerkering is not burning a hole in their pocket.

11. Starlyn Caba, SS (OD Rank: N/A)

Summary: Caba is having much the same season that Bergolla had a year ago. He is walking (14.4%) more than he is striking out (10.6%), but isn’t hitting for much power (.055 ISO). He hits the ball on the ground a bunch and predictably vs DSL defenses that is translating to a good BABIP. He is a good shortstop defender and has room to grow into more physicality. He is a switch hitter, but having only 17 PAs against LHPs it is hard to judge how both swings are progressing.

Deadline Thoughts: Caba can be traded, but unless the Phillies have suddenly soured on him it doesn’t make much sense to have him in a trade unless you are making a deal for a superstar and you need every sweetener you can get, it is unlikely he is traded.

12. Raylin Heredia, OF (OD Rank: UR)

Summary: Heredia received a $300,000 bonus in 2021, but only played in two games in his first season. He was one of the best hitters on the DSL championship winning team in 2022. He has mashed in his stateside debut in the Florida Complex League. He swings and misses a bit too much, but otherwise the rest of his profile checks the boxes. He has a good frame with room to add a bit more muscle, but he is already routinely putting up exit velocities over 100mph. He has a balanced swing that leads to good line drive rates with a good number of fly balls. He is a plus runner who I have timed up to plus plus. For now, he is a center fielder but he might be more of a right fielder given the other defenders in the org. He has been the breakout prospect of the year in the complex.

Deadline Thoughts: The Phillies have generally protected their complex level prospects. Teams will likely ask for him, but I expect the Phillies to steer them towards other pieces.

13. Alex McFarlane, RHP (OD Rank: 9)

Summary: McFarlane burst into the year with big velocity, hitting 100 early in the season. He bled velocity within his starts and from start to start, before the Phillies shut him down to manage innings (he only pitched 65 innings in 2022 and is at 46 currently). He is a spin rate monster, and given his arm angle and fastball movement profile the Phillies have added a sinker to his arsenal and it has served him well. His changeup looks good, but he has struggled to land it for strikes. His slider was an absolutely devastating weapon, getting misses on 55% of swings, while also landing it for strikes. Control is still a problem, but it looks more manageable. He still has high reliever risk, but there is a starting pitcher in there. The biggest thing for him sticking in a rotation will be maintaining the velocity over a start and finding more inning to inning consistency.

Deadline Thoughts: The Phillies deload of McFarlane means that anyone trading for him wouldn’t have seen him in a month and a half. The Phillies aren’t going to sell low, so the only way they trade him is if a team has something very nice and loves him a ton.

14. Gabriel Rincones Jr., OF (OD Rank: 12)

Summary: The selling point on Rincones is raw power, and if you just look at his triple slash you wouldn’t see it. However, in Clearwater, he had an average exit velocity of 89.5 mph and a 90th percentile outcome of 107.3 which puts him right in the top group in the organization. He does not elevate the ball enough yet, but he also doesn’t mash it into the ground, giving some hope that better swing decisions and maturity will get him to where he needs to be. He was susceptible to offspeed pitches in Florida, but not in a glaring way. His stolen base total with the Threshers hints at more speed and athleticism than he has, but it does look like he will stick in an outfield corner for now. While a college bat, it is important to remember he has less high level reps than some of his peers.

Deadline Thoughts: The Phillies really like Rincones, and given his less than sterling stats that probably means they will like him more than any suitor, and they aren’t in a rush to need to offload him, nor is he likely to be the linchpin to a trade.

15. Simon Muzziotti, OF (OD Rank: 8)

Summary: Muzziotti is having his first healthy and present season since 2019, and he has made the most of it. He doesn’t strike out and he walks at a good rate. His power output in 2022 looks a bit fluky, but he is driving the ball better than he used to. He is running a very high BABIP due to a very good line drive rate to all fields, and if he can maintain that he will continue to post good batting averages. He is still a poor base stealer, and his glove is not on the level of other center fielders in the system. He has a chance to be a second division regular or good 4th outfielder, but he has been trending more towards a part time player than everyday bat. He does look like someone should give him some run in the majors though.

Deadline Thoughts: Simon Muzziotti is on his last option year and plays the exact position as a core major league player (LH CF), making him the most logical trade candidate in the system. He does not have the most trade value because of the roster situation, but he might be good enough to get some sort of rental.

16. Bryan Rincon, SS (OD Rank: 46)

Summary: Rincon looked like he might be interesting when the Phillies took him in the 14th round last year. His .213 batting average might put you off, but he is a 19 year old switch hitter with a 15.7% BB% and 19.8% K% with the swing decisions to back it up. He isn’t quite Bergolla at making contact, but he has a swinging strike rate of just 8% and a relatively low swing rate. There is a chance he is slightly too passive, but he has shown a good eye at laying off breaking balls. The exit velocity data is less rosy as he is near the bottom of the org in both average and 90th percentile exit velocity, but he is good at making the most of that strength in terms of power and getting the ball in the air. The Phillies have only played him at shortstop and he should be a good defender there. There is definitely some worry about his bat, but he is young enough and with the other skill sets to make him intriguing.

Deadline Thoughts: Rincon is probably not untouchable, and teams are almost certainly going to try and pry him away in trades. The Phillies seem to value him well and are likely not shopping him, so it isn’t impossible he is traded, just feels unlikely.

17. Wen Hui Pan, RHP (OD Rank: N/A)

Summary: Pan is not the typical international signee. He is almost 21 and comes from a throwing program that does not match what the Phillies would want from him. This has led to a very mixed role for Pan this season, with very mixed results. Pan came in reportedly throwing as many as 10 pitches, but seems to be trending towards mainly throwing a fastball, slider, and splitter. His fastball has ranged from 92 to 100, showing higher velocity early in the season and in true relief roles. He will show inconsistent shape on the pitch, but will show huge carry up in the zone. He really kills spin on his splitter, but has struggled to get swings and misses on it. His slider shows better results, but he struggles at times to land it for strikes. It is really easy to see Pan in a relief role where his fastball could be a dominant pitch in high leverage. Given the pitch mix, there is a chance that he can start, but he will need to find secondary pitch consistency and maintain velocity on his fastball.

Deadline Thoughts: It would be difficult for the Phillies to trade Pan because it is difficult to evaluate him. Much of his season has been getting him innings and adjusted, but whether he can start or is just a reliever changes his value considerably. There is a chance there is a value mismatch the Phillies can take advantage of, but he feels unlikely to be moved.

18. Samuel Aldegheri, LHP (OD Rank: UR)

Summary: Aldegheri was signed out of Italy on July 2, 2019 and due to the pandemic and injury had only pitched 33.1 innings before the 2023 season. He started off his season as  the opening pitcher on a Threshers no-hitter. Aldegheri is on the short side and features a 4 and 2 seam fastball with decent movement. He has mostly sat 91-93, getting up to 95. He throws a changeup, curveball, and slider with his slider being his primary bat misser. His control and velocity have slipped some as the year has gone on, which is unsurprising given his lack of innings in prior seasons. He profiles as a back end starter with a bit more intrigue given his unusual background.

Deadline Thoughts: Aldegheri was signed as part of the same class as Cabrera, and so is on the same sort of protection timelines. He doesn’t have the same velocity and size as Cabrera and that may not draw the same crowd and dreams. The Phillies like him, but he is probably not untouchable.

19. Jean Cabrera, RHP (OD Rank: 29)

Summary: Cabrera had a down year in 2022, following his breakout 2021 campaign. His repeat season of the Florida State League has gone much better. His fastball velocity is up nearly 2 mph (93 to 94.7) and he gets good vertical movement on his four seam fastball. He has scrapped his curveball and is throwing his slider harder but with much the same movement. The most interesting pitch might be his changeup, which is on the hard side, but he has added fade as the season has progressed, the whole time maintaining a whiff% over 40% on it. He dramatically cut his walk rate and his numbers are inflated by a .424 BABIP despite not giving up a contact profile that would match that number. He still has some room to fill out and there might be a touch more velocity as well. Right now he is trending as an intriguing back end to low end mid rotation guy, and much more likely to be a starting pitcher than he was coming into the year.

Deadline Thoughts: Cabrera is actually already at Rule 5 protection status this offseason, and while not at risk, the Phillies have been willing to move players in this range. Despite being a bit old for the level, a team may see him as having more upside to unlock.

20. Devin Saltiban, OF (OD Rank: N/A)

Summary: The Phillies may have snagged Saltiban on an upswing. He hit ok vs college players with a wood bat before the draft and was good at the combine. He wasn’t overwhelming vs weak competition in high school, which is a bit of a worry. The Phillies see a guy with good bat speed and exit velocities. He has been listed as both an outfielder with a chance to stick in center or as a shortstop.

Deadline Thoughts: Can’t be traded.

21. TayShaun Walton, OF (OD Rank: N/A)

Summary: The Phillies have not shied away from risk in the draft, and they have not shied away from thinking they can get guys with big exit velocities into the air. Walton should stick in an outfield corner and has big offensive potential if he can elevate the ball more. However, because it will be an outfield corner he is going to need to hit near that potential.

Deadline Thoughts: Can’t be traded.

22. Caleb Ricketts, C (OD Rank: 33)

Summary: Ricketts put up big offensive numbers in college and then continued that with the Threshers. He is more of a singles and line drives than big power, but he showed with Jersey Shore that the approach numbers in Clearwater were due to being able to hit the ball so much. There is still some question about whether he can catch, but it is trending more towards yes. He has been out with an injury for a while now, though is reportedly nearing a return.

Deadline Thoughts: Ricketts was on pace to be an interesting trade piece, but he has been injured for over a month now, and for any team that was not scouting the Florida State League early in the year they may not have a good look.

Notes on others of note in no specific order.

• OF Ethan Wilson – Wilson is still left field only, and the power has been inconsistent, especially as his approach has faltered. If a team is buying the changes, he probably is a likely trade candidate.
• RHP Enrique Segura – Segura has somehow pitched all of his games on the road so far, so fresh reports have been lacking. He hasn’t been dominant, but the FCL is an aggressive assignment. I don’t expect them to move him.
• RHP Andrew Baker – Baker has had a highly inconsistent season, including being sent down to Clearwater to work in the pitching lab. The stuff is there, the command is not. Another team may look to buy low, and it will be up to the Phillies to see how much they think they can fix.
• RHP Micah Ottenbreit – Ottenbreit has returned to the mound following Tommy John, but the stuff isn’t all back. He will show low to mid 90s on his fastball with a changeup and high spin curveball. The curve shows promise, but the command very much looks like a pitcher still working their way back.
• OF Emaarion Boyd – Boyd is insanely fast, makes a good amount of contact, and suffers from the lack of impact as some of his peers on the Clearwater roster. He lacks the frame to project it fully onto, making his path to being more than just a speed and glove guy much murkier.
• RHP Estibenzon Jimenez – Jimenez has interesting pitch characteristics and a starter’s pitch mix. 
• OF Marcus Lee Sang – Lee Sang isn’t quite a three true outcomes hitter, but he gets the most out of a leveraged swing. He has fared poorly in a handful of at bats from lefties, but plays all three outfield positions and could be an interesting platoon bat down the road.
• RHP Tyler Phillips – Phillips is hard to judge because the results haven’t been there, but you can see a fastball that sits 91-96 with a good slider, and solid control. Maybe profiles more as a reliever given his walk and strikeout numbers vs righties.
• RHP Gunner Mayer – Mayer got some buzz early in the year, but has struggled with control over the course of the season. He still is very much in progress, but there also has not been a big leap, as he is now in his 4th season.
• RHP Tommy McCollum – McCollum is a big guy and has struggled with his control at times, but is starting to put it together. His fastball plays up and his splitter is a very good pitch. He has had strong reverse platoon splits and is holding lefties to a .044/.232/.044 batting line. 
• LHP Mavis Graves – Graves is a work in progress. His breaking ball will flash good potential, but he struggles with his control and to hold fastball velocity.
• OF Jordan Viars – It has been a struggle for Viars, as his approach continues to be poor. While he has raw strength, he continues to struggle to elevate the ball consistently.
• RHP Christian McGowan – McGowan was 95-97 with a running fastball and big sweeping slider in his first rehab appearance back from Tommy John surgery. He has mid rotation upside, but might be a reliever, but we will see as he works his way back.
• LHP Andrew Walling – Walling has been a breakout NDFA with a fastball up to 97, but the main pitch is a bat missing slider.