Phillies 2023 Draft Thoughts

The Phillies were not going to “win” the draft and come out with a class that looked like the future of the org. They had the smallest draft pool thanks to going to the world series (picking 2nd to last each round) and signing Trea Turner (cost 2nd and 5th round picks). Depending on the first round went, the Phillies were possibly going to be struggling to get value as they just did not have much money to play with. I am going to assume that barring any injury found during physicals, that the Phillies know the numbers of and will sign their first 11 round players and likely most of their draft class.

Given where they were picking (27th), taking Aidan Miller was a great outcome in the first round. There are reasons he fell, especially once the college bats started flying off the board starting pick 11, but most of the injury is wrapped up in the hamate injury keeping him from being himself this spring. If the Phillies had picked Miller where they got Justin Crawford last year (#17) it would have been a solid pick. At 27 it is a great pick. The Phillies definitely won’t be getting a deal at the pick, but based on their behavior the rest of the draft, they didn’t really blow up their board for Miller either. If the power and hit fully come back, he could be a real steal and a cornerstone piece of the farm system quickly.

Given the unknown of Miller’s number, the Phillies starting Day 2 with a pair of high school hitters was a surprise. Neither Devin Saltiban (3) or TayShaun Walton (4) were players falling down boards that figure to require big bonuses to get away from college commitments. Saltiban was clearly rated higher than he was on public rankings as his performance vs better competition in the draft league and at the combine were pushing him up boards. Part of it is the lack of information, but I do worry that there isn’t a carrying tool and he is going to end up in a corner outfield spot. There is a chance the Phillies bought low before an upswing. Walton’s rankings were a bit of a mystery to me given the report. He is going to be in a corner outfield spot, but it seems like he has the approach and hard hit tendencies where you should be able to get him to elevate a bit more and there is some hit tool to give up and the approach to make it work. They definitely have the time to make it work, and have had a bit of success with some other hitters in the org getting them to elevate a bit more. Neither guy seems like a big impact prospect, but it also does not look like they spent resources like they were 1st or 2nd round talents.

The other two hitters the Phillies took on Day 2 are interesting as well. Bryson Ware (8) is a college senior that will save them some money but he absolutely killed the ball in SEC this year. At minimum his positional flexibility and performance makes him look like a good org guy, but there is a chance a bit more as well. Avery Owusu-Asiedu (9) is the opposite as a 20 year old college junior. He was at a small school and did not appear on any of the major public lists. However, he is a near top 100 prospect on a couple of public stat models and he looks the part too. He has intriguing size and power. There is some swing and miss, but also a lot more upside than your typical 9th round college junior.

On the pitching side, the Phillies definitely have a type. Often tall, with plenty of velocity, often a good breaking ball, and some control issues. George Klassan (6) is somewhere in the Andrew Baker, Griff McGarry, Alex McFarlane nexus. He doesn’t have the measureables of McGarry or Baker, but he throws harder than McFarlane did, and might have scarier control than all of them. They are not afraid to move that type of arm directly to the bullpen, or try in a multi inning to starting role to see if they can fix them in that way. Jake Eddington (7) and Cam Brown (10) are also typical Phillies picks as starters that underperformed who can sit mid 90s with a good slider and have shown a changeup. Brown looks like a future reliever, but Eddington is intriguing as a starter, especially as he moves further away from Tommy John surgery.  All three arms are reportedly in the bad fastball shape category, so it will be interesting to see if the Phillies are able to coax a better shape out.

As expected, the Phillies went back to their normal pitching well throughout Day 3. All the pitchers they took were over 6’4″. They did get some different archetypes amongst the group. Brandon Beckel (12) is a pure reliever with a more vertical arsenal, where as Ethan Chenault (18) is more of a plus sweeper type. Luke Russo (16) and Casey Steward (19) are starters from non big schools (Steward was DII) who don’t seem to have totally premium stuff with Russo reading more as a future reliever and Steward as more of an arm they might let start. They did fit a velocity monster into the group in 6’6″ Marty Gair (13) who routinely was touching up to 98-99 while sitting in the mid 90s. It is an over the top fastball and curveball shape that looks like a dominant 1-2 punch as a reliever if they can get the control in order. Much like past Barber drafts, there isn’t a short a flat plane fastball guy, but big dudes with big velocity and big spin. They have not yet had one of this exact archetype pop, but they have generally improved each of the college arms they have touched and they have not inputted complete zeros into the system.

The big surprise on Day 3 was Kehden Hettiger (11) a switch hitting high school catcher. Due to the Miller pick and the lack of big money savers it appeared the Phillies probably were carrying a lot of money into Day 3. Hettiger isn’t as big a name as Emaarion Boyd was a year ago, but he does have an Oregon commitment so I suspect he will take some cash. The big question is if he can stick behind the plate. It is good bat speed, good approach, and good power from the left side, and while it might work at third or an outfield corner, it make more sense at catcher. He wasn’t rated especially high, but he is an intriguing late pick.

Of the other four bats, they took a pair of seniors in Zach Arnold (14) and Pierce Bennett (20) who both put up big seasons in 2022 and 2023, and come with some positional versatility. They are similar to Ware on Day 2 in that they might just be really good org guys, but there is a track record of high level performance and measureables to back it up. They selected A.J. Shaver (17) from the same JuCo as Gair, and he absolutely obliterated the competition there this year. He has a bunch of swing and miss, making him reminiscent of recent Barber picks like Logan Cerny, Jared Carr, Cade Fergus, and Troy Schreffler. He definitely has some raw power, and this late in the draft is very worth taking a look at. Meanwhile, Jared Thomas (15) is the obligatory catcher pick and he has the hit over power/good defender back up catcher profile down pat. He performed well the last two years, but there doesn’t seem to be some sort of untapped potential, but he could stick around the system for a long time.

It is definitely not a safe draft class, and outside of Miller there is not a player to really hang your hat on as MLB regular or better projection right now. The hallmark of Barber draft classes has definitely been their risk, and load put onto the dev team to pull out the best of a pile of tools. The dev team was involved more in the draft process this year, so we will see if that affects the outcomes of certain players. All of that is sort of to be expected, and I think outside of Miller the class is expectedly sort of unexciting, but the Miller pick looks really good for them and there are things to like in the other 17 guys. The Phillies look to have moved quickly on some NDFAs, but with the roster crunch it will be interesting to see how much they augment this class.