The Glendale Desert Dogs and the Phillies on the roster have now played 17 games. RHP Wen Hui Pan has yet to appear in a game and IF Otto Kemp is currently second in the league in OPS. All of that really sort of pales in relation to the return of Andrew Painter to the mound. So let’s do a quick run around.
RHP Andrew Painter: 3 GS 2.57 ERA 7 IP 6 H 3 ER 1 BB 7 K
The real thing you were looking for from Andrew Painter this fall is that he looked like Andrew Painter. Much like the mustache he has grown, it is still the same Andrew Painter, but with some slight differences. His signature sweeping slider is gone and replaced by a version of the high 80s cutter he was working on in spring 2023. He also has the injury return rust, like his control is fine, but his command isn’t. He is losing velocity more over these shorter outings than you want to see when he is fully back, but it isn’t entirely different than a pitcher in Spring Training. But under all of that, is the same framework and warts. His fastball will never be flat because of his size, but it still has good ride and natural cut. It is also of course still in the same velocity band, averaging 97.0 in his two tracked starts and peaking at 99 there, but 100 in his untracked first start. He has feel for spin, and it looks like his curve might be a bit harder and shorter. He has thrown just one changeup, and that is a pitch he still has yet to really throw a ton as a pro. It is fair to tentatively back where he isn’t the best pitching prospect in baseball yet, but you can see the path where he is easily there very soon.
IF Otto Kemp: 10 G 29 AB .310/.488/.759 1 2B 4 HR 7 BB 12 K 5 HBP 1 SB
Currently in Statcast tracked games, Kemp has 15 balls in play. On those he has an average exit velocity of 95.8 mph, a max of 115.8 mph, and a 90th percentile EV of 109.4 mph. He has hit 4 of his 15 balls in play over 108 mph, and 11 of 15 at least 99 mph. He does have 27.9% K%, and that is certainly worrying given some of the swing and miss he showed in AA and AAA. He has played 2 games in the outfield as well as time at first and third base, and adding corner outfield and first to his defensive positions will give some real flexibility going forward. It has been a nice capstone on a season that makes it clear he is a MLB level prospect.
OF Gabriel Rincones Jr.: 12 G 40 AB .225/.333/.400 1 2B 2 HR 7 BB 4 K 2 SB
Rincones isn’t blistering the ball quite at the same level as Kemp, but he has a max EV of 115.7 and still has an average EV of 91.2 mph. He definitely has had some bad luck, and the sample size between a good triple slash and a poor one is very small. What is impressive is he is running a minuscule 8.3% K% and in 123 tracked pitches he has 8 swings and misses (62 swings). He didn’t really need to prove anything in the AFL, but the contact rate is a nice bonus.
C Jordan Dissin: 6 G 18 AB .167/.348/.167 5 BB 7 K
Not much to write home about for Dissin, who is mostly splitting time evenly with two other catches. He has not hit the ball particularly hard and has hit things mostly in the air too much.
SS Bryan Rincon: 11 G 40 AB .175/.233/.225 1 3B 3 BB 9 K 6 SB
The AFL was going to be a challenge for Rincon given how little he played this year and his injuries. He has a good average exit velocity (93.0 on 16 tracked balls), but his max is only 103 and his 90th percentile is 101.7 mph. It has been a lot of solid contact, but not a lot of dangerous contact. The walk and strikeout numbers aren’t egregious given the sample size. Overall it isn’t a huge negative so far on him, but it isn’t a “I’m back” return either.
RHP Griff McGarry: 3 G 2 GS 0.00 ERA 6.2 IP 2 H 0 R 6 BB 9 K
Probably the oddest thing about McGarry’s time in the AFL is the workload as he has started in his last two appearances and pitched into the 3rd in his last appearance. He is pitching like a reliever, primarily throwing his fastball, and then mostly following that with a cutter, and then sprinkling in a sweeper. His fastball is still mostly 93-95, touching 96 (he averaged 94.5 in both AAA and AFL), and it looks to have a little more ride than it did in AAA. He has been a little lucky in keeping contact quality suppressed, and his control continues to be erratic. It looks like a positive step for him, but the control issues are still present and his stuff is good, but not overwhelming. This all matters mostly for Rule 5 protection, because otherwise he continues to be a work in progress.
LHP Tristan Garnett: 5 G 3.18 ERA 5.2 IP 4 H 2 ER 3 BB 8 K
Garnett is a weird pitcher, and there is a real chance he can make it to the majors, but it is probably going to take time. His velocity has been up to 93.7 mph, but he has been a lot lower, with there maybe being a cutter shape on the lower end. He has used his changeup more than his fastball and it has been his primary bat misser in the AFL. It does not have a large IVB separation from his fastball, but sitting the mid 70s it has a huge separation from his fastball.
LHP Wesley Moore: 4 G 27.00 ERA 3.0 IP 9 H 9 ER 3 BB 3 K
Moore has a similar sort of look and feel to Garnett with a fastball and a changeup from a funky delivery. Whereas Garnett has higher IVB on his fastball and changeup, Moore has thrown a sinker primarily and his changeup has negative IVB. He has also failed to miss bats in the AFL, and the contact against him has been quite hard. It has been a poor year for Moore overall, and the AFL hasn’t really shaken that.
RHP Christian McGowan: 2 G 1 GS 7.36 ERA 3.2 IP 11 H 3 ER 3 BB 3 K
It has been one good start and one poor start for McGowan in the AFL and neither in front of Statcast.