Baseball development does not care for roster construction. In the minor leagues there is one finite constant in development, playing time. When it comes to pitchers, this means starts. Teams have tried to get creative with pitching rotations, with some opting for shorter rotations with piggy back starts, or other like the Phillies have opted with 6 man rotations at some levels.
Ideally a team tries to pair a pitcher with the level that will aid in their development. Now baseball does not stick to plans, injuries and performance can affect the best constructed plans. This can lead to roster holes and roster crunches, and in the case of the Phillies the crunch point is the Clearwater Threshers.
At the start of the year a team often looks like the level below it and so we must start our discussion of the Clearwater rotation with the 2017 Lakewood rotation. At the end of the year that was Bailey Falter, Nick Fanti, Alejandro Requena, Adonis Medina, Mauricio Llovera, and Felix Paulino. Then we have the holdovers who don’t have a full year in Clearwater in Sixto Sanchez and McKenzie Mills. Next in the low minors you have to mix in new draftees, in this case 3rd round pick Connor Seabold was ready for hi-A. That is 9 pitchers for those counting along. Then once the year begins there are players are at lower levels pushing for promotion, and Lakewood already has some pitchers pushing for Clearwater.
There is an article out there about who is most deserving of the rotation spots, but with only partial information when compared to the team, it would be a misinformed exercise. What is more interesting is how a team ends up with 12 players all needing to be at the same level and position. For this exercise, I have included 3 Lakewood starters in RHP Ramon Rosso, LHP Will Stewart, and RHP Sepncer Howard.
The Level a Year HS Pitcher: Bailey Falter
The Phillies have not spent a lot of top 10 round picks on HS pitchers. In 2014, they took Sam McWilliams (traded for Jeremy Hellickson), in 2015 they took Falter, in 2016 they took Kevin Gowdy in the 2nd round (Tommy John surgery), and then in 2017 they took Ethan Lindow. That leaves just Falter taking things year by year. Falter may accelerate things this year because his command and feel for pitching have allowed him to dominate hi-A, but he also has not seen his stuff jump dramatically forward.
The Late Round HS Pitcher: Nick Fanti, Will Stewart
Not all high school pitchers get to move at the same pace, both Stewart and Fanti both had to spend 2 years in the GCL, with Fanti then getting to jump directly to Lakewood and Stewart needing to stop off in Williamsport. After McWilliams was the only high schooler signed by the Phillies in the 2014 draft, the Phillies started taking and signing high schoolers later in the draft. Stewart (20th) and Fanti (31st) were not premium picks. The Phillies did use solid picks on Justin Miller (12th) and Andrew Brown (13th) in 2016, but neither got large bonuses, but Kyle Young (22nd) did and he is actually on the more direct top 10 round level a year path. In 2017, the Phillies were unable to close the deal on anyone but Ben Brown (33rd) who looks to be repeating a year in the GCL.
The New College SPs: Connor Seabold, Spencer Howard
Typically advanced college starters jump over low-A and get the start in hi-A. The Phillies have recently done this with Thomas Eshelman and Cole Irvin, and Seabold and Howard fit the larger bill. Howard is less advanced than Seabold, and he has struggled in his last few appearances. Even then, it is evident that he has some things in his arsenal from Division 1 baseball that are too good for many low-A level hitters.
The Level a Year International Pitcher: Adonis Medina, Felix Paulino
When a player signs at 16 out of the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, or another country, their one a year path gets started a bit earlier. In the case of Medina and Paulino, both started with a year in the DSL, followed by a year in the GCL, Williamsport, Lakewood, and now Clearwater. Both were signed after their signing year season, delaying their Rule 5 eligibility by a year. Paulino has been more of a swing starter and Medina is a top prospect, which is why Paulino is now in the bullpen.
The Trades: McKenzie Mills, Alejandro Requena
At the 2017 trade deadline the Phillies prioritized players that were not Rule 5 eligible after the year. What they ended up with was a pitcher in our second category in McKenzie Mills (2014, 18th rd) and one in a version of our 4th category in Alejandro Requena (signed September 2013). The Phillies had previously done similar when they dropped Jake Thompson, Ben Lively, Nick Pivetta, Tom Windle, and Zach Eflin into an existing group of Jesse Biddle and Aaron Nola. Right now Mills is in the bullpen trying to work things out and Requena is on the DL after only making 2 starts.
The Older International Signing: Mauricio Llovera
On some level, Llovera started his career like a delayed version of the level a year player, but having signed at a few months before his 19th birthday, Llovera moved through the system differently. After his year in the VSL he was already 20 when his GCL season began. The Phillies have tried putting him in the bullpen to fast track him, but sometimes a player has too much talent for that (see Jose Taveras) and forces the team to use them as a starter. Llovera might be a reliever
The Much Older International Signing: Ramon Rosso
You can mostly map out the path of players years in advanced, but sometimes players just break all trends. In 2014, Edubray Ramos started in the VSL and ended in Williamsport, the next year he jumped right to Clearwater, reached Reading in the summer, and was in Philly by May 2016. Ramon Rosso is not Edubray Ramos, but he did go from DSL to Williamsport last year, and while he did go to Lakewood (he is a starter as opposed to Ramos as a reliever), he is nearly 22 and dominating the level he is at. His age and level of challenge will force his advancement forward more than a younger international or high school pitcher.
The Phenom: Sixto Sanchez
What happens when you show stateside, young for your signing year and suddenly topping out in the upper 90s? You skip Williamsport and end up promoted to hi-A about the time you turn 19. Everyone else on this list has to wait their turn on some level, the doors are opened for Sanchez in his ascendance through the system. You can find patterns for promotion and precedence for paths to the majors for others, for Sanchez it will be dictated by his stuff alone.
Some of this log jam is fluky, but much has been controlled by decisions the Phillies made in the trade market and draft decisions they made 3 years ago. Now there is no real crunch above and below the Clearwater crunch because of the talent accelerating into a single year, but we can see with a strong 2017 GCL rotation and 2 2018 GCL teams there may be another bubble forming for the 2018 BlueClaws. Either way we can see how these bubbles are caused by diversity in talent acquisition all coinciding at the same time.