The Florida Gators have been a dominant force in recent years. They have been to the last three College World Series and are currently the defending champs. They were also the #1 team in the country entering the weekend. A big reason why they have been their dominant pitching staff. In the last two years, four Florida pitchers have gone in the first two rounds (A.J. Puk, Dane Dunning, Logan Shore and Alex Faedo). That number is expected to rise go up this year with Brady Singer and Jackson Kowar expected to go early, with Singer projected to go in the top 5.
Singer has been high in the amateur scouting industry’s radar since last spring when he moved into the rotation. In fact from the end of the 2017 college season to this preseason, most boards had him as the #1 draft prospect. This spring, despite his tremendous performance Singer has been surpassed (depending on what you read) on the pitching board by Casey Mize and Matthew Liberatore and bats like Joey Bart, Alec Bohm and Nick Madrigal. There are a few factors for this. Some of this is player fatigue and scouts and prospect writers are looking for those who make the big jump. Some, like Mize and Bart, surpassed Singer because of their performance and the rarity of quality at the position they play is in the draft (in Bart’s case). And then there are those who do worry about Singer’s long-term potential because of his mechanics or potential downgrade of his arsenal.
As of this moment, Mize and Bart are projected to go 1-2 and most expect the Phillies to take a position player at #3 (with Bohm being the most likely). Still, I don’t think the Phillies should be ignoring the options on the mound. While they have done a fantastic job in finding and developing arms on the international market, they’ve had some trouble drafting and developing the domestic pitching outside of Aaron Nola. If Mize doesn’t fall (which he shouldn’t), my next favorite pitcher is Liberatore. But if the Phillies would rather grab an arm with more of pedigree, Singer should be up for more consideration against the college bats. He is after all facing the toughest competition in college baseball and has yet to lose a step. So what can we expect long-term from one of the nation’s best arms?
Brady Singer, RHP, Florida
6’5″, 180 lb
Bats/Throws: R/R
Previously Drafted: Toronto Blue Jays, 2015 2nd Round
Rankings (as of 5/20/18): Baseball America #4, MLB #5, ESPN #20, 2080 Baseball #12
What the Numbers Say
2015 (Freshman): 23 G (1 GS), 43.2 IP, 193 batters faced, 2-2, 4.95 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 38 K, 17 BB, 43 H, .265 opp AVG, 2 WP, 9 HBP, 7.8 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 19.7% K, 8.8% BB
2016 (Sophomore): 20 G (19 GS), 126 IP, 531 batters faced, 9-5, 3.21 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 3 CG, 129 K, 32 BB, 120 H, 6 HR allowed, .249 opp AVG, 5 WP, 11 HBP, 9.2 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 24.3% K, 6% BB
2017 (Junior) (as of 5/20/18): 13 G (all starts), 88 IP, 10-1, 2.25 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 1 CG/SHO, 92 K, 18 BB, 59 H, 7 HR allowed .186 opp AVG, 1 WP, 8 HBP, 9.4 K/9, 1.8 BB/9
Strengths
Quick windup, up tempo pitching style. low 3/4 arm action gives fastball plenty of sink and arm-side run in the 91-95 range; pounds fastball inside to both lefties and righties. Slider (low 80s) has moderate depth, tight two-plane break. Change-up shows good tumble, fades out of the zone, effective tool vs left-handers.
Weaknesses
Arm action is a bit of a whippy, loses consistency of arm slot. Doesn’t seem to get a lot out of his legs, potential issues that may cause stress in the arm. Pitches can flatten out if arm angle is too low. Doesn’t use his change-up enough, slider command has been sketchy this spring
Overall Assessment
Singer’s up-tempo style, mechanics and low 3/4 arm slot are unconventional, but it has made his fastball/slider combo a tough read for opponents. The confidence he has in those two pitches and the ability to locate them inside to lefties and righties is a good sign for a future big league career. There are some things that Singer is going to have to improve. For one he’s going to have to trust his change-up to be as a reliable third pitch. He’s flashed promise with it, but he has been too slider reliant in his collegiate career and that will need to change if he wants to remain a starter. Mechanically, he’ll have to figure out how to incorporate his lower half to keep his arm healthy and efficient long-term. Right now the quick whippy arm and trunk rotation are producing a lot of that velocity, and that could lead to future arm problems. While the mechanics are somewhat different, these are some of the things Aaron Nola had to do to become the top notch pitcher he is today. If Singer can make these adjustments, he has the chance to be a mid-rotation starter, pushing to be a #2. If not, he might be an average bullpen arm because he doesn’t really have elite velocity.