Major Leagues

Trading Cole Hamels: Pt 3 – The Value of Hamels

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You can find part 1 of this series (Surplus Value) here and part 2 (Valuing Prospects) here Now that we have the basic theory of surplus value it is time to determine what Cole Hamels is actually worth.  Dave Cameron has contended that there isn’t more than $5,000,000 in surplus value in the contract.  The Phillies … Read more

Trading Cole Hamels: Pt 2 – Valuing Prospects

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To read part 1 on Surplus Value go here

Based on the set up of this site and everything I have written before, you can tell I like prospects, and at times I have immersed myself too much into prospects.  However, the access to minor league information and the number of people and sites covering it has led us to have a very twisted view of the world of prospects.  We now have entered a world where we simultaneously over and under value prospects based entirely on hype that we generate and demand.  We expect great things immediately from prospects because we have been spoiled by recent successes, and we call players busts well before they have had time to adjust to the majors.

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Trading Cole Hamels: Pt 1 – Surplus Value

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Until he is traded the speculation around Phillies ace LHP  Cole Hamels will never end.  What has played out over the past 3 months has been a battle at the core of WAR and prospects and how we value players in trades.  In many ways the debate as left me questioning the models we use for WAR and whether we are truly advancing the game forward with how we use statistics in analysis.  I got into writing because of statistics, I majored in Physics because of my love of numbers, but I have learned something through the process, if you live in a world purely of numbers and idealized scenarios you lose your grasp on reality.  In an ideal world we marry numbers and observation to further what questions we can ask about the game and create a more vibrant discussion.  Over the next few days I am going to break through some parts of the Hamels trade speculation and what kind of return the Phillies feel like they should get vs what the media and fan are saying they should review

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The 2017 Timeline

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Today Pat Gillick made public what a lot of us have been saying and thinking for over a year now, the Phillies next window opens in 2017 and, if you want to hedge, 2018.  This is mixed news, the negative being that 2017 feels like an eon away, the positive is that the Phillies have admitted that there is a light at the end of the tunnel.  We don’t know how much this is the org as a whole,we don’t know how much this is Gillick stepping up, and we might never know.  But this revelation does fit into the timeline that has become increasingly clear.

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Rebuilding and Competing Not Mutually Exclusive

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Ever since Roy Halladay‘s injury in 2012 the Phillies have been in a downward spiral of competitiveness.  That summer they traded Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence to bolster a very poor farm system.  The Phillies finished that year with the 15th worst record in baseball and followed that up with a 7th worst record in baseball the following year.  This year they are 67-77 and Ruben Amaro is once again talking about being competitive in 2015, much like he did a year ago.  This has caused some outrage among fans who believe everything that Amaro says to be a show of his incompetence.  But are the Phillies really harming their potential future by not bottoming out?

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Phillies Scouting Staff Graduates 13 Players to Majors in 2014

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Over the years the Phillies amatuer talent acquisition staff has gotten a lot of crap from fans.  I personally think a lot of it is unfounded and comes from a set of unreasonable expectations for the developmental process.  The scouting staff has no control over the developmental process, especially after a player is traded to another organization.  The staff deserves huge amounts of credit for finding the player in the first place, and with a huge 2014 it is only fair to give them their due.

This is not an indictment of trades that have been made, merely the originally signed players

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September 40 Man Roster Implications

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This morning at The Good Phight Dan Cormican wrote about some players who could get the call to the big leagues this September, so I am not going to rehash a list of minor leaguers and their chances.  Instead lets build on that and talk about the Phillies 40 man roster and what kind of space exists on the roster, what space can be opened up, and then from there everyone can make their guesses and assumptions about who can get called up.

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Phillies Acquire 2B Jesmuel Valentin for Roberto Hernandez

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The first of the two PTBNL for Roberto Hernandez have been revealed, and it is Dodgers’ supplemental first round pick in 2012 Jesmuel Valentin  (#51 overall).  Valentin is the  son of Jose Valentin who played 16 years in the major leagues.  As an amateur he played second base next to Carlos Correa, and while there was some chance he would play SS, he has found his natural spot at 2B in the Dodgers system.  Baseball America had this to say about him when he was drafted:

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Freddy Galvis, Cesar Hernandez and Building the 2015 Bench

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There are few things to say positively about the 2014 Philadelphia Phillies season. We’re nearing the final stretch to the season and September promotions should bring about an ounce of excitement for the faithful fans that still decide to watch this team. One area of the ball club that has been abysmal this season along with the previous years has been the bench.

The collective group of John Mayberry, Tony Gwynn, Cesar Hernandez, Wil Nieves and Reid Brignac is a group of mostly below replacement level players that don’t provide value offensively or even defensively. Nieves is the lone exception and works well with the pitching staff.

Offensively, the Phillies rank 24th in major league baseball, with a .245 on base percentage this season when pinch-hitting. They have a collective .542 OPS, 19th in the league. Their bench options lack positional flexibility and they struggle to get on base. Regardless of how the manager plays the matchups beyond John Mayberry against left handed pitchers, there are no strong options that will yield a positive outcome.

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