Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from New Jersey, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has appeared on Baseball Prospectus, Crashburn Alley, Phuture Phillies, The Good Phight, and TheDynastyGuru.

Arizona Fall League Recap – Hitters

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This year the Phillies only sent two hitters the Arizona Fall League.  The first was former second round pick in the 2011 draft, Clearwater CF, Roman Quinn and the other was AA catcher Logan Moore.  Quinn came with much bigger expectations and played in 24 of Scottsdale’s 32 games (including missing time due to an injury scare), Moore was more roster filler and a back up, getting into only 12 games.

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Jesse Biddle and Shane Watson News From Josh Norris (Baseball America)

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Since this likely to get buried wherever tweets go to die here are some quick Phillies pitching updates from Baseball America’s Josh Norris (who writes up the Phillies Top 30 among many other things). Just spoke to Joe Jordan for 90 minutes. One bit of news: Shane Watson will have another shoulder surgery. #Phillies — … Read more

Trading Cole Hamels: Pt 4 – Cole Hamels Trade Scenarios

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The logical last piece of this series of posts was to talk about what an actual Cole Hamels trade would look like.  If you have not read parts 1-3 (Surplus Value, Valuing Prospects, and The Value of Hamels) I strongly advise you to go back and read them because this will be a continuation of the topics discussed in those pieces.  I am going to explore the potential outcomes for a Cole Hamels trade looking at surplus value, how fans value Hamels in a trade, what his value is on the field, and how the Phillies value Hamels in a trade.

The teams that definitely have the money and prospects to be in on Hamels are the Red Sox, Cubs, Rangers, and Dodgers.  On the fringes the Pirates, Royals, Diamondbacks, and Blue Jays all have the resources to make a deal happen.  There are many factors to a Hamels trade, from his salary, to the “surplus value” he will return, to the rarity of such a pitcher being available on the market.  All of these factors go to together, and while some may be objective, the end result will be very subjective.

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Dylan Cozens and the Deception of MiLB Splits

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As minor league fans we grasp for hope and improvement in minor league players, and we often grasp on to little pieces of information in an effort to make sense of the chaos.  This ranges from singular scouting reports from a singular person on a singular day or series* to a set of splits on a stats page.  We are just looking for narrative and meaning.  The player that has risen to the top of the narrative pile is Phillies Low-A right fielder Dylan Cozens.

*This is the nature of scouting and why multiple looks and context are important parts of the entire evaluation process.

The narrative coming out of the season was that Cozens built on first half successes into an outstanding second half, and from the surface if we take the triple slash line that looks fairly accurate.

BA OBP SLG
1st Half 0.229 0.282 0.403
2nd Half 0.267 0.324 0.426

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The Past Week 11-7-2014

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The Past Week: Baseball Prospect Top 10 Phillies Prospect List (my reaction) Phillies MiLB Free Agents – Phillies Minor Thoughts Trading Cole Hamels: Pt 3 – The Value of Hamels – Phillies Minor Thoughts (Pt 1 and Pt 2) Offseason Mailbag #1 – Phillies Minor Thoughts Roman Quinn in the AFL (Jordan Gorosh, Ethan Purser, Todd Gold) – … Read more

Phillies MiLB Free Agents

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Baseball America put out their comprehensive list of minor league free agents today.  The Phillies have a decent amount of players up for free agency.  For the most part players that reach minor league free agency have little in the way of ceiling left.  Occasionally some guys slip through with a ceiling of being a contributor … Read more

Trading Cole Hamels: Pt 3 – The Value of Hamels

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You can find part 1 of this series (Surplus Value) here and part 2 (Valuing Prospects) here Now that we have the basic theory of surplus value it is time to determine what Cole Hamels is actually worth.  Dave Cameron has contended that there isn’t more than $5,000,000 in surplus value in the contract.  The Phillies … Read more

Offseason Phillies Prospect Mailbag #1

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The World Series over, free agency starts soon, and prospect rankings are upon us.  So what better time than now to answer your questions about the Phillies minor leagues.

Jason Polinsky (@Jay_Poozle) If you could trade Dom for a hypothetical top 100 prospect, would you?

Yes and not even close.  I like Brown’s potential, but even if he turns it around you only have 3 arb years of control left.  I will take my chances on a player with less upside for those 3 years of pre-arb control.  If I thought Brown could guarantee me close to average regular production (~2 WAR) it is a different story, he just has too much risk.

Adam Dembowitz (@adamd243) Gimme all you got on Tommy Joseph.

Joseph has plus raw power and a plus arm and a lot of fringy other things.  I was really encouraged by his brief healthy time in AA this year where he hit .282/.345/.551 over 21 games.  There is a non-zero chance he could be a regular behind the plate, but on top of the much talked about concussions he has missed dev time to other injuries.  His attitude was apparently very poor in the GCL as he dealt with the frustration from the injured wrist.  In a perfect world, Joseph provide fringe average defense behind the plate, hits 15-20 HRs with a half decent walk rate and a .240 batting average, that is a really solid player.  I wouldn’t give him up for nothing, but you can’t really count on anything either.

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