Draft Day is here and we still don’t know who is going first overall, and that is a problem for knowing what happens next. So far this is where we stand on current mock drafts.
Mocks and Rumors
UPDATE: All Mock drafts have gone with the draft going Mize to the Tigers, Bart to the Giants, and Bohm to the Phillies.
- Baseball America – Madrigal
- Fangraphs – Bohm
- MLB (Mayo) – Madrigal
- MLB (Callis) – Madrigal
- ESPN – Mize
- Perfect Game – Bohm
This range really shows where we are right now. So here are the scenarios, because it looks like we are at 4 of them (everyone has the same 4th guy).
Tigers Pass on Mize
The consensus is that if the Tigers pass on Casey Mize, he falls to #3 and the Phillies take him. We don’t know how much the Tigers want a hitter over a pitcher or what Mize’s demands are. Either way it seems sure if he doesn’t go 1 then he goes 3. Right now there is a lot smoke out there, but generally everyone is still well over 50% that Mize goes #1.
Bohm or Madrigal is the Pick
If Mize goes 1, then Bart goes 2 and the Phillies get to choose their college hitter. As you can see the industry is split on Bohm vs Madrigal. Madrigal is not going to fall past 5 and Bohm could fall all the way to 9, so Bohm may come cheaper and Madrigal is going to cost right about slot.
Singer is the Dark Horse
Every mock mentions Singer, so he is the guy who could be the reach pick if the Phillies go away from predictions.
Matt’s Preference List
So I don’t have a ton of knowledge on these guys, I have scouted much less than Jeff, so I don’t have the feeling to dissect things down to the player. However, based on the mock drafts and buzz I have a preference list based not just on player, but what their market looks like (slot, overslot, underslot).
- Casey Mize (overslot)
- Alec Bohm (underslot)
- Matthew Liberatore (underslot)
- Nick Madrigal (slot)
- Joey Bart (slot)
- Brady Singer (slot)
- Jonathan India (underslot)
- Carter Stewart (underslot)
- Jarred Kelenic (underslot)
- Cole Winn (underslot)
For me it is really Mize #1 and then Bohm, Liberatore, Madrigal, Bart, and Singer all in a tier. I think Bohm and Liberatore have the most upside and I also think they both have the chance to slide, meaning there is a chance for the Phillies to get a very good player and still save some money. I don’t trust Bart’s hit tool and that drops him behind Madrigal. Singer is safe, but I hate the lack of upside. Madrigal is also safe, and while it is another hit over everything pick, he has an elite track record of hitting. There might be some more power there, but he is just so safe overall. I think reaching for any of the guys I have in the 7-10 range would be a mistake, I think the savings aren’t worth it to move down a tier.
Prediction:
I am going to be boring and say the Phillies take Alec Bohm at #3 after the Tigers and Giants take Mize and Bart. They ultimately sign him for something in the #4 to #5 pick slot range saving $500k while getting arguably the best bat in the draft.