Phillies 2026 Draft – Day 1 Recap

Some events proceed as a series of compounding foreseeable disasters. The first day of the 2026 draft was one of them. Sandwiched be other programming it began on NBC for 10 picks before beginning an odyssey of digital channels. Meanwhile those in person described it as loud and disjointed, and then suddenly over as the physical space only lasted for nominally the first round of picks. Meanwhile actual MLB games continued to be played as the first half of the season remained in progress and a World Cup game occurred. NIL money has combined with soft slots to make the actual mechanics of the draft completely confusing with the order completely divorced from the level of talent available. It of course will pick back up tomorrow for 16 more rounds in competition with the Futures Game and more major league games. Not that draft needs to be a premier event, but MLB wants it to be and are failing in achieving that desire.

The Phillies draft proceeded in a similar way. The Phillies under Brian Barber have been characterized by their comfortability with risk. The Phillies have generally picked in the mid to late first round and so risk is a partner with upside. They have repeatedly taken high school players with injury, profile, age, or hit tool concerns. The only exception has been Gave Wood, a college pitcher with many of the same red flags. In many cases the draft side of the house has made bets that rely on the dev side to be top notch and they just have not been. It wasn’t surprising when the draft proceed in that same way with a twist.

If you just evaluate their first pick in a vacuum, it is the best of this strategy. Coming into the year Tyler Spangler was seen as a potential top 10 pick. A polished left handed hitting shortstop with remaining projection and upside. He was sliding in the draft because he had a large number to buy him out of a Stanford commitment and he did not play this spring. It started with his team being suspended and forfeiting 5 games for a hazing incident. The Phillies maintain that Spangler was not involved in those incidents. However, it is the injury that caused him to miss the rest of the spring that will make anyone who follows the Phillies feel queasy. Spangler had an unspecified back injury, FanGraphs reported it as a lower back stress reaction, but that has not been repeated elsewhere. Spangler was back healthy for the combine, but given Aidan Miller’s season that doesn’t inspire much confidence. The rest of the draft and post draft comments indicate that the Phillies needed to save a large amount of slot space on other picks to meet his bonus demands, meaning the success of the draft largely comes down to a HS shortstop with a back injury that teams were unable to evaluate this spring.

The Phillies second round pick of Missouri State OF Cade Bogenpohl falls more under acquisition acquiring a player the dev side is ill equipped to fix. Given his size, athleticism, and raw power there might be a good player inside, but the Phillies have not been an organization that has helped players with swing plane and pitch recognition. In another organization this might be an upside pick, but it was playing to the opposite of their strengths.

Once you assume that the Phillies had to save money, their next two picks make abundant sense. RHP Ruger Riojas is a solid arm who pitched a bunch of innings this year and profiles as a back end starter. He has the raw talent of a 3rd to 5th round pick, but should come in below that because he is a nearly 23 year old senior. Deven Sheerin is a young junior who is a pure reliever with a big fastball and solid slider. He is probably 1-2 rounds earlier than you would like to see him get picked, but he has the stuff to be interesting.

The Phillies capped off the day with RHP Jaxon Jelkin out of Kentucky. Once again on the surface it looks like a good pick. Jelkin is a 5th year senior with plus stuff who pitched 97 good innings for Kentucky this year with physical projection remaining despite already being 23. It looks like a good combination of stuff and savings. However, Jelkin has an extremely checkered past. He has been at 4 different schools in 4 years. Was dismissed from Nebraska at the time there were notable off field stories about certain players there in 2022. He blew out his arm in 2024 requiring Tommy John surgery. He has been drafted twice before, by the Dodgers in 2023 and the Mets in 2024, with the Mets presumably walking away from a pre-arranged bonus agreement given he was selected in the 9th round. Every writeup has mentioned makeup concerns all the way back to when he first appeared on the scene.

Put it all together and the Phillies have once again bet big on an injury concern while not getting any real discount on it. They were able to select a player later, but it looks like it will have jeopardized the rest of the class. They have also once again missed that the goal of upside and risk is to be able to maximize the upside and mitigate the risk due to your organizational strengths. They bookended their days with makeup concerns, including using the Ranger Suarez compensation pick on a player that appears to be one of the most toxic in the draft. The Phillies better hope their bet on Spangler is correct or we all saw this train wreck coming and they did nothing to get out of the way.