This Week’s Schedule
- Lehigh Valley (14-7) vs Columbus (12-7)
- Reading (5-10) @ Portland (7-6)
- Jersey Shore (5-10) vs Brooklyn (10-5)
- Clearwater (9-6) vs Fort Myers (8-7)
Hitter Spotlight
11-23 2 2B 2 HR 4 RBI 1 BB 5 K .478/.500/.826
What Aroon Escobar has done so far this year isn’t completely shocking. He was very very good in a small sample size last year and he has long had the physical tools to be a good player. Escobar has a very quick bat which allows him to punish fastballs, and he is adept at getting the ball in the air to the pull side. He has been more aggressive at the plate this year which has translated into a flipped walk and strikeout rate (20.2% BB% to 7.0% BB% and 9.6% K% to 22.8% K%). He has hit a ton of line drives, but you would like to see him also get the ball in the air more, but his currently 28.9% line drive rate is likely unsustainable and will hopefully decay into fly balls and not more ground balls. It is unsurprising for a kid of his age and experience, that sliders can be a trouble for him, as can changeups when he is swinging fastball. Defensively, Escobar has exclusively played second base, and it is a position that should fit his body and offensive profile well. If he keeps this up, the Phillies will need to challenge him at a higher level, but given the pedigree and underlying numbers (he has an average EV over 90 and 90th percentile over 105 mph) he is firmly one of the Phillies better prospects already.
Pitcher Spotlight
RHP Moises Chace
2 GS 5.1 IP 6 H 4 ER 4 BB 6 K 6.75 ERA
It is fair to point out that the 2 home runs that Chace gave up this week were to Francisco Alvarez and Jeff McNeil on rehab occurrences, but it wasn’t like they were the only damage against the 2024 breakout pitcher. It isn’t time to dump all of your Chace stock yet, but it is time to be apprehensive about the righty. He is still throwing more in the low 90s after not throwing all winter, and while there are good analytical qualities to his pitches, he just isn’t a good pitcher at that velocity and with diminished command (from a place that already needed some work). Last year, due to illness, Mick Abel was way behind on his season and it took him until June to start showing real velocity return and into the summer before he started to look like himself. It looks like the Phillies are going to let Chace continue to work through things at AA, and that probably is best for him in the long term. Hopefully, at the end of the year it is one of those seasons that just needs to be broken apart to understand.
Notes and Thoughts
- Andrew Painter was a little less electric this week, sitting 95-98 in his 3 innings (it also took him 49 pitches for those 3 innings. It looks like there are still come consistency things to iron out in his slider vs cutter, and it didn’t look like he always got the good sweep on the slider (he did not throw a curveball). Both the changeups he threw were out of the zone. It is a lot of fastballs right now from Painter, and that is probably going to be true until they really start to let him loose.
- Eiberson Castellano had the other side of the Chace starts and put up a good appearance and one where his stuff didn’t fool opposing hitters quite as well (total line 7 IP 7 H 1 ER 2 BB 5 K). He should be independently pitching as a starter going forward now that he is stretched out, and turning a lineup over will be a big test, also he probably will start to see more lefties, historically a demographic he has struggled with.
- Mick Abel had another good game statistically (5.1 IP 4 H 2 ER 3 BB 8 K), but his fastball was up to 98.5 and averaged 96.8 over the start. He did lose some velocity over the start, but pitch 71 he reached back for 98.0 for a strikeout. He started to work in his curveball a bit more in this start and it gave him a chase pitch. He does need to tighten the command and his walks came late on at bats where he wasn’t particularly close to the plate.
- After walking too many and not striking enough out, Jean Cabrera had his first good start of the year going 5 innings with 4 hits, a run, 2 walks, and 7 strikeouts.
- It was the first poor start of the year for Seth Johnson (4 IP 6 H 7 R 6 ER 4 BB 5 K). He threw his slider more than his fastball, and opposing batters did not chase it enough. Johnson showed some more impressive velocity early in the year, but averaged just 95.0 this week and peaked at 96.7.
- Justin Crawford has the ground ball rate down to 61.5% (season rate was 66% last week) and had a 9 for 23 week fueled by a 4 hit game. The approach is still not great and he has struggled immensely vs fastballs, but he is now batting .293 in AAA.
- The approach started to catch up with Otto Kemp this week with 1 walk and 8 strikeouts, but 5 extra base hits and a .280 average on the week keep things pretty steady.
- Greensboro is a good place to hit so we probably shouldn’t read too much into Dylan Campbell going opposite field with some of his 3 home runs this week. However, after a cold start, the new addition gave Escobar a run for his money this week, hitting .375/.423/.875 with 5 extra base hits, including 3 home runs, and just 4 strikeouts in 26 trips to the plate. He definitely has more raw power than was indicated, he just will need to continue to make enough contact to make it work.
- Campbell wasn’t the only BlueClaws hitter to tally three home runs this week as Bryan Rincon only went 5 for 23 this week with 9 strikeouts, but he tallied those three long balls.
- Devin Saltiban matched his previous hit total this series, unfortunately that number was three and he struck out 9 time in 6 games and now has 22 strikeout in 14 games, a highly worrying sign.
- Carson DeMartini had more of the Dylan Campbell style of week than some of his teammates. He had 3 doubles, but no home runs, however 3 walks, 4 strikeouts, and a 8 for 19 week has hit batting average up to .250 on the season. He is striking out a bit much (most of that vs the IronBirds in the cold last week, but 10 walks and 3 hit by pitches have him at a .421 OBP for the year.
- Micah Ottenbreit took a ball off the ankle and had to leave the game early and make a trip to the IL, but it was a good start for him before that (4 IP 1 H 0 R 0 BB 3 K). He was 88-92 in his first start, which doesn’t help how poor the shape is. What will help is that he has really found success with a new cutter, and hopefully that carries over when he is back.
- Estibenzon Jimenez had a great winter in Australia and then gave up 5 runs while recording an out in the first series of the year. He was the bulk guy behind Ottenbreit on Tuesdayy and then took the second turn over the weekend and went 4 innings while giving up 2 runs, but striking out 7 with no walks. At one point he looked like an interesting equal with Jean Cabrera with the Threshers, so if there is another gear that is interesting.
- Over the first two series of the year Aidan Miller went 3 for 29 with 12 strikeouts, this week he went 7 for 23 with 3 extra base hits, 3 walks, and only 5 strikeouts. Hopefully it was cold weather and a first real trip at Reading causing the early slump.
- Hendry Mendez has a 42.9% ground ball rate in the early going, and while his fly ball rate would be a career high, more than half are listed as pop ups, so maybe not time to sound the celebration yet. He still isn’t hitting for power, but his approach continues to be good at the higher level.
- It was probably bound to happen that Griff McGarry would come down to earth. He complete 9 hitless innings to open his year, but he walked 4 with 3 strikeouts in his 4 innings, and while the two runs were unearned, it was his error that set up the inning.
- Marty Gair was drafted back in 2023 and missed all of 2024 returning from Tommy John surgery. In his pro debut this week he was 96-99 from a not ideal arm angle (he is a massive person), but with 20 inches of vertical break plus cut. He threw a single curveball, but he certainly flashed an interesting arm.
- Rodolfo Castro isn’t a prospect, but it is worth mentioning he went 6 for 18 this week with 3 walks and 3 strikeouts. He has stripped switch hitting, but is still sporting a 107.4 mph 90th percentile EV, a passable chase rate and zone contact rate (don’t look at him vs secondaries, but also see the stopped switch hitting part), and his selectivity has him with a 24.4 SEAGER in AAA.
Injuries and Transactions
- Lou Albrecht, Micah Ottenbreit, and Caleb Ricketts added to 7-day IL
- Marcus Lee Sang added to 60-day IL
- TJayy Walton transferred from 7 to 60 IL
- Cal Stevenson (MLB), Lou Albrecht (LHV), Josh Hejka (JS), Kehden Hettiger (JS), Jordan Dissin (REA), and Cole Roberts (REA) all transferred to new level.
- Michael Mercado activated from Temporarily Inactive List
- Marty Gair and Mitch Neunborn activated from Development list
- Cam Brown added to Development List
- Guillermo Rosario activated from IL
- Colton Bender signed to contract and assigned to Lehigh Valley
Links and Things
Around the Web
- 18 MLB Prospect Performances That Could Mean Something—Or Nothing—Early In 2025 – Baseball America – Mark Chiarelli
- 10 Low-A MLB Prospects Ready To Rise Up Rankings In 2025 – Baseball America – Ben Badler
- Monday Morning Ten Pack: De Paula Shows Polish (Dylan Campbell and Alex McFarlane) – Baseball Prospectus – Ben Spanier
- Ranking The 20 Hottest MLB Prospects | Hot Sheet (4/21/25) – Baseball America
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