Phillies Minor League Monthly Retrospective – May 2024

Stock Changes

*All rankings from preseason list

Stock Up

SS Aidan Miller (3) – Last month I noted that Miller was showing the pieces for a breakout, but has not yet done it. May was his breakout. He hit .309/.478/.588 for the month with 10 doubles, 3 home runs, and 17 walks (18.9%) to 20 strikeouts (22.2%). He whiffed a bit more this month, but it didn’t greatly change his overall strikeout rate. His average exit velocity on the month was 91 mph, up from 84.1 in April, and his launch angle increased from 10 to 16 degrees. In the FSL he is 4th in 90th percentile exit velocity (106.7 mph), despite not being one of the highest in max exit velocity, showing his consistency in hitting the ball hard (he also will get to pull power in the air consistently). He doesn’t chase much and has a solid zone-contact rate, especially so given his power output. He does have some susceptibility to offspeed pitches, but not enough to be truly concerning, and he will make some poor contact, particularly in popping the ball up. He has not yet ascended to being one of the very best prospects in the game, but he is probably in that tier below with room to grow. Regardless of what position he ends up at (something that will likely be dictated by org need) he profiles as a middle of the lineup impact player if he hits his projections.

SS Starlyn Caba (4) – Caba opening up the FCL season with a home run probably put power expectations in an unexpected place, but that doesn’t mean his homerless time since then has been a waste. He still has physical limitations, but he is already hitting some balls over 100mph and making harder contact than William Bergolla was last year. He shares Bergolla’s approach and strike zone awareness with 18 walks to 8 strikeouts in May. He can get a bit passive at times and he has been done in a bit on the edges of the zone by good pitches and some bad umpiring. He is a plus plus runner and made some bad base running decisions early, but has been on a tear since then. The defense is as advertised, and he is going to be at least a plus plus defender when all is said and done. Not a ton is actually new on Caba, but him carrying over the potential and DSL success immediately onto the FCL field is noteworthy. His long term outcome and whether he is a bottom of the lineup, good glove hitter, or a star hitting in the top or middle of the lineup will depend on how much impact he can grow into at the plate.

IF Aroon Escobar (46) – Escobar got some hype when he was signed, and two years ago in his first game he hit a massive home run. After two seasons in the DSL he has carried over his success to the FCL. He hits the ball very hard, but continues to hit for a poor quality of contact more than he should. Part of that is driven by his plus approach at the plate and ability to get the bat on the ball. On the season he now has a 20.9% BB% and just 7.7% K%, which with his 4 hit by pitches as his season on base percentage at .495. He has been adept base stealer as well, now 9 for 9 on the season. He has played both second and third for the FCL team, and probably will be able to handle both as he has a strong arm and decent range, even if he has been occasionally mistake prone. If he can consistently get the ball in the air and on a line, then he has a chance to be a very good prospect. For now, he has firmly moved from interesting prospect to deserving to be with the Phillies other non-Miller/Caba low minors infielders.

C Guillermo Rosario (UR) – Rosario is a player that those in know mentioned to me this offseason, but with a .055 ISO as an 18 year old catcher in the DSL, he didn’t stand out to me statistically or on video enough to push him on to the list. He is now firmly a prospect, hitting .299/.388/.567 in May for the FCL Phillies. He looks good behind the plate (and at first, which is mostly just a positive for him helping out the team). He has struggled more vs RHP and crushed LHPs, but he is routinely hitting the ball over 100 mph and the power surge is not a fluke as he can drive the ball in the air. He does have some real swing and miss at the plate, as his 27.0% K% would indicate, and he can just have some uncompetitive at bats. He has a reputation as a leader on the field and has been very clutch (1.348 OPS in 17 PAs with 2 outs and RISP). I don’t know where he will end up on rankings, by the end of the year as the hype cycle on complex level players can be a roller, but he is firmly a player to watch.

Stock Down

OF Justin Crawford (5) – In April, it looked like Crawford was making process. His swing still looked ugly, but his lower half, torso, and arms all looked connected. In May, it looked like it completely regressed. His swing is all arms and he is mostly hitting the ball directly into the ground again. His one home run on the month was a ball down and in that he pulled, reminiscent of the balls he was hitting in Clearwater. On the season, he has a ground ball rate of 61.2%, which is better than 2023, but is still poor. What is just as concerning is the other things going on at the plate. His L/R splits are small enough sample, that they aren’t worth worrying about, but his 6.8% BB% and 21.6% K% are. A free swinger with the Threshers, Crawford went from a 11.7% BB% and an admittedly high 26.0% K% in April to a 3.8% BB% and 17.3% K% in May. Much was made about the amount of ground balls in 2023, but lurking was a poor approach at the plate that was especially vulnerable to offspeed pitches. Much like the offseason, this isn’t an obituary, but it is a disappointment to see improvements and then much of those gains be erased.

RHP Christian McGowan (10) – I don’t want to bury someone for an injury, but this was a big year for McGowan and the Phillies ramped him up slowly before sending him to AA where things didn’t go disastrously. However, the command issues followed by a shoulder injury that has kept him out all month firmly moves McGowan down the rankings and greatly increases his chances of being in the bullpen if he ever gets healthy.

Mixed or Stable

C Eduardo Tait (7) – After a good spring training, it hasn’t exactly been a good start to the FCL season for the 17 year old catcher. Much of that was a 1-14 start over his first 5 games as he hit .289/.345/.365 over the rest of the month. He is hitting the ball hard, he just hasn’t gotten a real hold of one yet and he has made some more weak contact than would be ideal. On the season he he a 7.9% BB% and 16.9% K%, though when you want his at bats it feels like he swings and misses a bit much. He is still very much a work in progress behind the plate, and in the early going opposing base runners have run fairly wild on him. It hasn’t been the breakout season that looked like it might be happening, but he also won’t turn 18 for just under 3 months, and the shine isn’t really off either.

2B Devin Saltiban (16) – It was expected that Saltiban might struggle to open 2024. He was moving to a new position (it does seem with Miller’s defensive emergence we can firmly put 2B in front of Saltiban’s name) and he had very little experience with high level pitching. In May, he hit .256/.355/.423 which isn’t a blistering number, but is and improvement on the previous month. He hit the ball a little softer in May, but dramatically cut his whiff rate and got the ball off the ground more often. Saltiban is almost assuredly going to move up the rankings when I update them, but it will be more with many of the players around him shifting back to the pack than him taking a step forward.

SS Bryan Rincon (9) – In the case of Rincon, all the negative is injury. After hitting .151/.309/.226 in April, the Jersey Shore shortstop was hitting .275/.370/.550 in May before an injury. The bounce back does a lot to say that April was more the case of a young hitter struggling at a higher level than a player being overhyped. The injury does sound serious, so there is a chance he will miss a large amount of time, but at least having a high note is better than a low note.

Monthly Stat Leaders

Hitting

Pitching

Mailbag

@dochammy: Has Leandro Pineda put himself on the prospect radar?

At the time of writing this, Pineda is hitting .310/.383/.470 on the season and coming off a May where he hit .330/.404/.462 while dramatically cutting down his strikeout rate. He has been playing first base due to an overabundance of outfielders and dearth of first baseman with Jersey Shore, but I don’t think it is an indictment of his outfield work. After spending a bunch of seasons as a prospect in the 50-60 range on my Top 50, I think he has moved himself on. He looks the part physically and his swing looks good too. I would like to see him trade some ground balls for fly balls, but he has also been a line drive machine. I don’t think he has exploded as a big time prospect, but he certainly has not fallen off the radar even though this is his 3rd season with time at Jersey Shore. I hope he gets to Reading soon.

@ImBettorThanYou: I noticed that Carson Taylor is putting up decent numbers for Reading. Looks like a minor league rule 5 guy from the Dodgers. Classic case of a guy putting up career best offensive numbers in Reading, or could they have found something?

He hit a home run as I was writing this, but I think it is mostly just a guy in his 3rd year in AA. His numbers, particularly his power cooled off in May and the Phillies have had him exclusively hitting in a platoon. The other thing is that he is listed as a catcher, but has exclusively played first and DH this year. He is a nice find for stabilizing a weak lineup in Reading, but I think that is about it.

@jts045: I’m curious about their plans at catcher. Is the replacement for JT in the system or is this a draft pick this year or next from the college ranks? Or is this simply wait and see

Wait and see. Most of the catching prospects of note are in Clearwater or below and it is hard to see any of them being the immediate next catcher. I like those catchers though, so I don’t think you need to get more organization catching depth right now. Also you should never draft for need. My guess is that they see how long Realmuto can be a major league player and then see if guys like Rafael Marchan or Caleb Ricketts can grow into a strong backup or it may be time to invest some in the second catcher in free agency.

@YoshkeZoidberg: Can you tell me a bit more about Michael Mercado and his move into a starter. How viable is he in that role moving forward, and what do you think his role is going forward?

Mercado has a starter has been highly inconsistent. Control was his problem in the past and it has shown up in the rotation. He struggled early to hold his velocity in his first few games, but has gotten better at that, but he is sort of pitching like a reliever (derogatory) and not a starter or reliever (complimentary). His pitches has mostly been to expected behavior looking for chases, but he isn’t as electric or attacking with them. To be a starter he is going to have to learn how to trust his stuff in the zone, sequence his pitches, and gain some confidence in his new changeup (because he is struggling vs LHBs). Having him as a 2-inning reliever makes the most sense, especially if he is back more 97-99 and not 95-97. Given their current relief depth, I wonder if they think they can get him to follow Sanchez’s path because the starting pitching depth below the majors is lacking.

@Lemmiwinks531: Would you try and sell low on Mick Abel this trade deadline while he still has some value or do you think he will regain his form and either be a more valuable trade piece or MLB contributor later?

Unless the Phillies internally just do not believe in Abel anymore, I wouldn’t be looking to just sell low. He has yet to reach the 40 man roster, so you still have time to work through things. Overall, things have started to trend in the right direction with him, albeit slowly.

@Wertzy24: Have there been any encouraging developments in Crawford’s bat?

@WABB10480: Have the swing adjustments Crawford made not working

The answer has mentioned above, is there was, but I am less encouraged now. He just looks so bad at the plate right now, and it looks like last year. I feel comfortable saying that whatever is going on right now is not an intentional part of their plan for him.

@DylanDeNick2: Who are some potential first round draft picks for the Phillies that you like in this years draft?

This is the part where I disappoint and say that I pay very little attention to potential picks given where the Phillies are picking in the draft. I am very much an advocate of best player available and I generally like the Phillies lack of fear on risk approach (though they have some hitting prospect types they have liked that I do not). Generally, once the rankings solidify, I am probably going to be looking for high schoolers ranked or mocked 5-10 spots above where the Phillies are picking at look at the ones falling for reasons other than massive bonus demands. I think when you are picking so late, the best thing you can be is flexible and oppurtunistic.

@AndrewVU041: Has Aidan Miller’s ETA jumped up, and, if so, should he start playing a little RF? Second question: Are you in favor of drafting college catchers or turning middle infielders into catchers during development?

I still think the 2026 ETA I had on Miller at the start of the year is where I would stay. I don’t think you start moving him off shortstop until he starts to get close. I don’t think they will put him in the outfield and I think it is more likely that we are having questions about the positions on Bohm and Turner first.

As mentioned above, I tend to BPA for the draft. I generally am not pro moving guys to catcher unless there is some big glaring reason to do so. I think draft college catchers is fine, but I would generally be looking for a more complete player rather than proximity or position.

@ManyFaceG0d: As far the system as whole, do you think the hitting prospects are finally catching up to the pitching? It seemed like before, the pitching prospects were carrying the system.

I don’t know if hitting development has caught up to pitching development, but hitting prospects have caught up pitching prospects. Some of that is injuries and some of that is Mick Abel’s regression as well, which has meant that pitching prospects outside of George Klassen have largely not stepped forward in a big way. Meanwhile the hitting side as received Miller, Saltiban, Walton, Tait, Caba, Rincon, and others in the last two years, giving the talent side a large shot in the arm.

@GarySie84201955: Which prospect’s stock has risen the most this year in your opinion?

So actual player writeups you can find above, so I want to briefly talk about stock. I had Aidan Miller as my #3 prospect entering the season, and would have him #2 today and will probably have him #2 to start next year. He may have seen his stock rise the most of any player in the system because on an overall outlook he has gone from a high risk potential everyday regular to someone on the path to being a possible All-Star. Whereas Rosario or Escobar is going to risk 30-40 spot on my list and are coming in as maybe an everyday regular type player. Another guy to throw on that list though is Michael Mercado for potentially changing his outlook from fringe roster reliever to maybe some sort of mid rotation starter.

@Jay_Poozle: Any word on Gabriel Rincones coming back? What were your thoughts on his start prior to going down versus your preseason outlook.

I have not heard any word of Rincones moving towards a return to baseball, and based on the injury I don’t expect it too soon either. He was definitely off to a good start and looked much closer to the majors than I thought entering the year. I think there was a real chance without getting hurt, he could have made the majors this year as a LH platoon bat. I think there is still a concerning amount of swing and miss, and he probably will never face lefties on a regular basis, but I thought he looked good.