You can access and download a PDF version of the list here – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1xggr9H2CX7bH4YPW45coe5fuzqcvwBY7/view?usp=share_link
Another year, another list. After an unexpected run through the postseason to the World Series, the way Phillies prospects viewed changes dramatically. No longer are prospects the future of the franchise on which hopes and dreams are solely placed. They are now pieces of a whole. Andrew Painter will have the weight of expectations upon him, but it won’t be to save the franchise, it will be to join with a group of winners and give the Phillies sustained success. A player like Dalton Guthrie, who is 27 years old and probably tops out as a good bench player, is no longer a disappointing piece of org filler, but a potential next man up to provide depth.
That does not mean that the picture is all rosy. Under a brilliant top of the system, there is not a solid foundation. A truncated draft (and development year) in 2020 leaves some missing depth. Some key draft misses leave some holes where a 2nd or 3rd round pick should be. In a system short on breakouts, there is a Logan O’Hoppe and Ben Brown empty spot where a NL Championship banner now hangs. The Phillies have gotten much better at pitching acquisition and development, but the hitting side has faltered at every step. Their high bonus international signings have not panned out, and a system that once generated big arms from unheralded arms has seen that stream mostly dry up. The Phillies have thrown resources at trying to build this back up, laying groundwork at the lowest levels while they change out the top level decision makers. They now have their pieces all in place and it will be once again time for a new regime to see if they can make improvements where no group has in over a decade.
I may have forced the list number to 50 again this year, but it was certainly threatened at times of ending up short of that. I am doing a totally different method for releasing the list this year. Rather than groups of 10 with cutoffs, it will be in tiers of prospects. This first one happens to be 10 players, but of the 8 groups I can hint that the last three will be 3 players, then 2, and then just 1. I want to write more where there is room to write more and also not create arbitrary dividing lines. There are no OFPs or grades associated with each group because I am not a scout and so I take not having to put a number to my work as having more nuance and squishiness to work with. That said, within each of these groups the ordering is my preference, but I don’t have a huge gap between them and it is subject to some of my biases.
Overall the methodology of this list is that it is based on conversations I have had with people in and around the game, my own looks at players (all video, but more levels of video than ever before), and then stats both of the traditional and advanced variety, when available. I left some objectivity behind when it comes to viewing growth in the system. I am more bullish on players I think can hit, because I don’t fully trust the Phillies to bring that out of players. I also am more bullish on pitchers knowing what types of attributes the Phillies target and maximizing in development. There will always be surprises, but we have to take into account outside factors.
All the normal features are back again. I use role as an optimistic outcome and not a percentile or OFP, and that outcome depends on the risk because not every player’s probability curve looks the same. At the end of the day, I want you all to be able to read this list, take away the numbers, and feel informed enough to make your preference list.
The List
Andrew Painter is probably the best Phillies pitching prospect of my lifetime. The only real arguments are possibly Cole Hamels and Aaron Nola in the exact moment before they made their major league debut, but no big deal as they are also easily the two best home grown Phillies pitchers of my lifetime. No matter the shape of his career, the career of Andrew Painter is something we will talk about for decades.
1. Andrew Painter, RHP
Age: 4/10/03 (19)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 1st Round of the 2021 Draft
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’7” 215lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| CLW (A-) | 9 | 9 | 1-1 | 38.2 | 1.40 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 10.7% | 46.3% |
| JS (A+) | 8 | 8 | 3-0 | 36.2 | 0.98 | 6.1 | 0.5 | 4.9% | 34.3% |
| REA (AA) | 5 | 5 | 2-1 | 28.1 | 2.54 | 7.9 | 1.0 | 1.8% | 33.9% |
Role: #1 Starter
Risk: High – Part of being an ace starting pitcher is proving that you are an ace. The complete package for Painter is the stuff to be an ace wrapped up in a pitcher that has not yet turned 20 years old. However, he still hasn’t faced batters above AA and he has only topped out at 103.2 innings in a season, not the 180-200 that an ace needs to do every season. If you said what is his risk to be a #2 it is probably medium, because he is that polished, and he is probably as safe as any pitching prospect there has been in a while to be a #3. The ace pinnacle is hard, and even for someone of Painter’s talent there are a lot of things that can come short of achieving that level.
Summary: It is an extremely weird thing to say, but if you just pull up a game of Andrew Painter he does not immediately jump out as the near consensus best pitching prospect in the minors. He looks very good, but there is a disconnect between the pitcher you are watching and the stats you see. Hitters seem to take called strikes on slurvy breaking balls in the zone, swing at a ton of fastballs up and out of the zone, and just generally seem to be unable to square up any pitch. In an age of aces having their whole arsenal thrown at speeds starting with a 9 or with highlight reel movement, Painter’s mid 80s collection of offspeed pitches calls to mind more of a soft tosser than a modern ace. To get a good appreciation of the specialness of Painter, it can be helpful to watch a few starts and really watch all the pieces come together. To do that in writing, it can be helpful to pull Painter apart into the individual pitches and attributes and then put them all together again and watch it fall into place.
To start, Painter is a tall lanky right handed pitcher. He has a strong lower half and uses it well in his delivery. He repeats his delivery abnormally well for a pitcher of his age and size. He works very quickly from a three quarters delivery. His best pitch is his fastball. He generally sits about 94 to 98, will reach up to 99-100 in most starts, and it topped out at 101.5 early in the year with Clearwater. The Phillies have helped with the shape on the pitch, and now it sits at about 2400-2500 RPM with elite levels of induced vertical break (rise). He also naturally gets good extension due to his size, though that does mean he doesn’t have the flat approach angle of a Griff McGarry type fastball. However, Painter shows plus command of the pitch, able to hit both the top and bottom of the strike zone. At the top of the zone, the pitch is near impossible to square up, and even if a batter makes contact, the result is very likely to be a pop out or other weak contact. Due to the downhill angle and rise, he seems to get some extra room above the zone where hitters think it will drop in for a strike, and while major league hitters won’t chase as much up there, it is a putaway spot for him. The characteristics of the pitch still play in the lower parts of the zone, and it is an extreme downhill hard pitch down in the zone, and hitters can have trouble squaring it up. He does miss uncompetitively up out of the zone a few too many times, but otherwise it is at least a plus plus pitch and given everything else going on, may be a true elite pitch.
Painter’s most used secondary pitch is his slider. He throws it about 80-84, touching up to 86, with good sweep. He can throw it in the zone and for chases, and will also throw it in on the feet of lefties. It does visually look a bit slurvy, and it looks like he leaves a lot of them up in the zone where you think hitters would be able to handle them. It is an easy plus pitch, but not a visually dominant one. Painter’s other breaking ball is a curveball that is about 78-80, touching up to 82. It has 12-6 movement, but he does occasionally have it slurve a bit, and he will need to just clean up the consistency a bit. It has good depth, but it isn’t a big time hammer. He will get on top of some that indicate there might be a plus version of it, but it might just end up as an above average pitch. Painter used his changeup even less frequently, but it has good fade, and at 86 to 88, T89, it has good velocity separation from his fastball. Given the small number thrown, I don’t have a good feel for the arm speed deception off of his fastball. There is at least an above average changeup in there, and given his general feel for pitching, it would not be surprising if he has a plus changeup in the long run.
That full four pitch mix on its own is very very good, but what happens when it comes together is why Painter is the high level pitcher he is. It starts with the fastball and slider. Painter works up in the zone with his fastball, and then tunnels the slider off of this. This means that the fastball up and into a right-handed batter breaks as a slider to about mid height of the strike zone on the outside third of the zone. To lefties he will break it on their hands or on their feet off of the pitch outside. He will even break them down on the top of the zone off the path of a fastball that is a good bit out of the strike zone. This relationship means that Painter actually throws a good amount of his sliders in or very close to the strike zone, and gets a good amount of them for called strikes. The velocity difference from his fastball means that if a hitter gears up to hit the fastball, they have no chance of getting to the slider.
There are definitely some eyebrows that are raised by a power pitcher throwing their slider in the mid 80s, and with the slurviness of Painter’s slider, it apparently can be confused for a curveball. When he throws another pitch in the high-70s/low-80s it can look like he is losing consistency on his pitches. However, his curveball is a distinct pitch thrown at a slightly higher spin rate with distinct tilt and spin efficiency. Jarrett Seidler of Baseball Prospectus wrote earlier this year about how having two breaking balls with distinct movement is an intentional pitch arsenal construction (he also touches on sweepers which also is applicable here). The two distinct breaking balls play off of each other, leaving the hitter left in between two different movement profiles. In the above fastball-slider construction, the hitter can theoretically try and sit on the slider in the strike zone. Painter will mix in the curveball off of this tunnel, where it is a strike and the batter looking outside will be forced to try and hit the pitch inside, leading to poor contact. Late in games, I have seen Painter leave the fastball aside to a batter on the third time through the order and throw the slider to the corner and the off the plate, and then use the curveball off of that to a batter looking for the slider away. The curveball also gives a vertical threat to Painter’s arsenal, allowing him to work up in the zone while threatening the lower third.
Speaking of threatening the lower third, the relationship between fastball and changeup seems much more conventional for Painter. Part of what makes Painter so good is that he shows the hitter that he can throw the fastball to both the top and bottom of the zone, so hitters are not able to focus in completely on the fastball-slider game up in the zone. The changeup plays off of the fastball in the lower part of the zone, where he is able to run it off the bottom corner to lefties, or in under the bats of righties. It is unlikely we see him work the changeup up in the zone, but its existence is the piece that allows him to have full use of the strike zone.
In many ways, Painter is the culmination of new and old school. His fastball and sweeper are both extremely in vogue pitches. The double breaking ball is something that we are re-learning has intentional value and is not a byproduct of pitch inconsistency. All of that symphony of hard philosophy is wrapped up in a workhorse frame that fills the zone with strikes, working all 4 quadrants and using a varied pitch mix to keep hitters off balance. In an era of hard throwing arsenals and optimized pitch usage, his arsenal looks more old school.
We are also talking about a 19 year old, and while precocious, he is not a finished product. Major league batters are not going to all just blindly fall for the fastball and slider. He is going to need to tighten up the command of both, making sure he is throwing competitive fastballs both just up and out of the hitting range and in the strike zone, and that he is not leaving obvious sliders in hitters’ nitro zones. He does need to tighten up the curveball movement and command and lose some of the slurvy blend. Given his dominant fastball, he is always going to be fastball heavy, so having a changeup he can sell off of that is going to be devastating. There are probably going to be starts as he grows where hitters figure him out a bit on the 2nd or 3rd time through the order. There is a chance he gets tired at points as he works his way up to a full workload. He has a chance to be a truly special pitcher, and it is ok if that is not an immediate outcome and takes until he is in his early 20s.
2023 Outlook: Everything indicates that the #5 spot in the Phillies rotation is Painter’s to lose. Assuming he looks like himself this spring, he probably breaks camp with the Phillies. They will do whatever they can to keep him pitching throughout the year, whether it is 6 man rotations, shorter starts, turns skipped, or even short IL trips. If he pitches most of the year in the majors, it is likelier that he pitches like a mid rotation arm flashing front end potential, than an immediate ace.
ETA: 2023
Previous Rank: 2
When you have an ascendent talent like Andrew Painter, it tends to set a standard that others around cannot obtain. Mick Abel has not broken out in the way that Painter has, and McGarry cannot paint the corners the way that Painter can. For both, that is ok, because there are maybe two other pitching prospects in baseball that enter the conversation when you talk about Painter. Mick Abel has not broken out in a big way, but his steady development makes him one of the better first round picks in the 2020 draft. McGarry is a lesson in taking risks and knowing what traits make a good pitcher. He may never be the high end starter that his stuff portends, but he looks to be a high end contributor and one of the best day 2 picks in the 2021 draft. When combined with Painter, this trio gives the Phillies one of the best groups of pitching prospects in baseball. Outside of the general excitement around that fact, it has allowed the Phillies to position their franchise in a way that maximizes its resources going forward.
2. Mick Abel, RHP
Age: 8/18/01 (21)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 1st Round of the 2020 Draft
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’5” 190lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| JS (A+) | 18 | 18 | 7-8 | 85.1 | 4.01 | 7.9 | 0.6 | 10.2% | 27.7% |
| REA (AA) | 5 | 5 | 1-3 | 23.0 | 3.52 | 7.4 | 2.0 | 12.1% | 27.3% |
Role: #2/#3 Starting Pitcher
Risk: High – Abel did not have any real stumbles, but he also didn’t have any big leaps. He has good stuff, but it isn’t overwhelming enough to not need polish. He is likely on the low end of the risk scale for a pitcher along his level of development, but there is still a gap to the majors. Throwing over 100 innings and making 23 starts is a very positive durability development.
Summary: The Phillies were very cautious with Abel in his first year in 2021, shutting him down early after an arm injury, causing him to log only 44.2 innings. While there were some definite ups and downs statistically for Abel in 2022, he took the ball once a week from April 9 until September 17, with the exception of a week off for the South Atlantic League All-Star game. He threw 108.1 innings on the season, and he topped 100 pitches twice in mid-July before they backed off of him a bit. Given his frame and ability to handle the workload, the Phillies are definitely pushing him in a way that is more workhorse than a max effort 5-6 inning arm.
Abel shows the arsenal for starting as well. He mostly sits 94-97 with his fastball, but he will get to 98 and 99. It has good ride and spin, though not quite at the level of Painter or McGarry, and it is a real bat misser at the top of the zone. He did lose some velocity deeper into starts in the later season outings I checked in on, but it was much less than what he did in 2021. Abel’s primary pitch as an amateur and as a pro is his slider. The Phillies took what had been a plus pitch and moved it into more of a sweeper. The pitch is a touch slower than what he threw in 2021, but it works a bit better overall with his arsenal. It is at least a plus pitch, but with some consistency and a touch more command it could be a plus plus weapon for him. His changeup lacks consistency, but he does show that he has some feel for it, and with work it could be a solid third pitch. He has not thrown his curveball as much this season, but it sits just below his slider velocity wise with much more drop. He will sometimes bleed it into the slider, but when he gets on top of it, he will show you a plus one. It probably settles in more average to above average than plus, and will likely function more to play off of the slider and give hitters a different look.
Abel has some definite young pitcher areas of improvement. He has a tendency to nibble and fish for chases with his slider. This can lead to deep pitch counts and advantageous situations for hitters. His stuff is not quite dynamic enough to throw command to the wind and just aim down the middle, but he will need to work on establishing his slider for strikes. He also has a tendency to not use the full zone, and he has innings where he gets too predictable. This is where getting the changeup and curveball in a place where they offer theoretical expansion of what the hitter has to defend will be important. Alternatively, if he can get the fastball command to a place where he can consistently work the edges of the zone, it will allow him to play with expanding off of it with the slider more.
There is definitely some worry that you look at Abel and see a mid rotation arm, and not a front line arm. While 2022 had some improvements, it was mostly a consolidation and durability proving year. Abel is only 21, and he had success at AA, so he is definitely well ahead of where he should be, he just isn’t on the rocket ship that Painter is on, and that is ok. To get into that #2 or better starting pitching realm, he is going to need to make some sort of unexpected growth, whether that is the fastball ticking up a bit more in velocity, some changeup growth, or more command and consistency, he is going to need to take some sort of next step to be a front line arm. The good news is that while we don’t really have the evidence to prove that leap is coming, he has enough feel for pitching and is young enough that it is not unreasonable that one of those things happens in the next few years. If it doesn’t happen, it is not hard to see him progressing as a high end mid rotation arm that shoulders a bunch of innings a year, and in this day and age of pitching, that is also a very valuable outcome.
2023 Outlook: Abel ended the year in AA, and while there has been posturing that he is not that far from a major league role, he is behind Painter and McGarry in terms of readiness and is not really major league ready. In AA he should get plenty of innings and get on a normal rotation cadence. If he doesn’t struggle, he should end the year in AAA and be ready to enter 2024 in contention for a major league rotation spot.
ETA: 2024
Previous Rank: 1
3. Griff McGarry, RHP
Age: 6/8/99 (23)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 5th Round of the 2021 Draft
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’2” 190lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| JS (A+) | 12 | 12 | 3-3 | 46.2 | 3.86 | 6.4 | 1.2 | 12.3% | 42.1% |
| REA (AA) | 8 | 7 | 1-3 | 32.2 | 2.20 | 3.6 | 0.3 | 15.2% | 29.5% |
| LHV (AAA) | 7 | 0 | 0-2 | 8.0 | 9.00 | 7.9 | 2.3 | 24.3% | 24.3% |
Role: #2 Starter Rate Stats with #3 Starter Total Value
Risk: High – McGarry made large strides with his control after signing, and once again in 2022, though a late season blister issue inflated his numbers. His stuff could get outs in the majors now, but he needs to just get his stuff in the zone and attack hitters with it. He is almost certainly never going to be an efficient pitcher, but if he can be a per inning front line arm in a rotation or bullpen he is going to be an impact contributor.
Summary: McGarry was trending in the right direction when the Phillies took him in the 5th round of the 2021 draft, and he was dominant in his pro-debut, vaulting him well up lists. His 2022 season got off to a slow start, as he had to ramp up in Jersey Shore after a Spring Training oblique injury. It didn’t slow down his stuff or results, but it did put him behind on total innings for the year. It wasn’t long before he was dominating A-ball. He immediately started having some blister issues that affected his ability to throw his slider in certain appearances. With the Phillies in the playoff push in September, they opted to see if McGarry could help out of the bullpen. The combination of blister and role change saw his command fall apart in AAA, and ultimately the Phillies went in other directions.
Andrew Painter may be the best pitching prospect in the system, but McGarry may have the title of the best individual pitches. McGarry is not a tall man, but he gets very good extension on his pitches, particularly his fastball, and this involves him coming in low and flat to the plate. His fastball then comes out with high spin rates and good spin direction at a low angle of attack with great late explosive rise. He also happens to sit 94-98 and will show a 99 and 100. The pitch is devastating at the top of the zone where hitters have no chance of getting under it, and because of the flat angle it plays well, missing bats even in the heart of the zone. He will also throw a 2-seam variety in the same velocity range that is more of a change of pace. In somewhat typical Phillies fashion they elongated the slider to have more of a sweeper shape and then added a new cutter behind it. Both are plus pitches that might play up above that if he commands them better. He has a curveball as well, and it has shown plus in the past but has faded in usage. He has inconsistent use of a changeup, but he will throw some that make you think there is a good one in there as well. All told it is a plus plus fastball, two at least plus offspeed pitches, and two more competitive pitches. It is a formidable arsenal.
The problem for McGarry has been command. He will have innings where he will just pound the zone, and others where he will walk two batters on 4-5 pitches and have to work his way out of trouble. He does do a good job of not letting things spiral, but it does drive up his pitch count. He can struggle to repeat his delivery at times, but his issues look almost as much approach as they do physical. He does not have fine command, but he does seem to spend a lot of time painting the corners rather than just letting his stuff work for him in the strike zone. He also has the tendency to use his offspeed pitches to go fishing for chases a bit too much. His sweeper is going to be a weapon off the plate, but he will need to be in and around the strike zone a lot more and not go chasing, because he also has a tendency to overthrow when he does it.
Without another leap, McGarry is always going to be a bit inefficient, throwing a few too many balls than you would like. The Phillies want to bulk him up enough to really handle a full season workload, but even with that he is probably going to be more of a 5-6 inning arm than a workhorse like Painter or Abel. It is certainly more of the modern version of a starting pitcher, but when combined with the risk that he doesn’t refine his command, it is easy to see why the bullpen role hovers over him. He is only entering his second full pro season so any bullpen talk as a permanent role is wildly premature, but it will hang over him until he proves he can be a major league starter.
2023 Outlook: Andrew Painter seems to have jumped McGarry in terms of major league opportunity, but the Phillies almost certainly want McGarry to be the next arm up. He will go to Lehigh Valley to continue to polish his command and control. If by some miracle it gets to August and the Phillies have had a full and healthy rotation all year, there may be some conversation about getting McGarry in the bullpen just so he isn’t in AAA when the team could use his arm.
ETA: 2023
Previous Rank: 6
I have agonized about nothing more this offseason than the order of these three hitters. Ultimately, the order does not matter in terms of value, it is really all about the same. The reason it is agony is because it is close, but also it is because it is about the hardest thing to judge, the hit tool. It is at the core of all three players, will Crawford and Rojas ever have a good one, and is Lee’s good enough to make him a good major leaguer. Ultimately, I went with the guy I have the most confidence in their hit tool (Lee), then the player with the shortest track record of not hitting (Crawford), and then Rojas. This is entirely a personal preference. I am not telling you that you shouldn’t like Rojas more than the other two, that is for you to understand where your risk tolerances are. If you wondered during this process why I wrote and published the list the way I did, it is for these 3 hitters, because I did not want them to be lost in an ordinal list.
4. Hao-Yu Lee, 2B
Age: 2/3/03 (20)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in June 2021
B/T: R/R
H/W: 5’10” 190lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| FCL (CPX) | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 25.0% | 12.5% | .500 | .625 | 1.167 |
| CLW( (A-) | 68 | 302 | 7 | 10 | 11.9% | 18.9% | .283 | .384 | .415 |
| JS (A+) | 9 | 40 | 1 | 3 | 12.5% | 22.5% | .257 | .350 | .486 |
Role: Solid Regular Infielder (probably at second base)
Risk: Medium – Lee has always hit. He hit as an amateur, he hit in his first taste of pro ball, and he hit in 2022. The Phillies have played him all over the infield, but he is probably a second baseman and just a solid one. While he has hit, there is certainly a valid question about his power output and whether it also ends up more below average than solid, and the whole package just comes up a bit short in total value.
Summary: Lee was one of the best hitters in his age group as an amateur, but some injuries caused him to lose some luster, with him eventually signing with the Phillies during the summer of 2021. He is a hitting and baseball nut, with multiple members of the Phillies describing either having to keep him from working in the cage or taking too much BP or him requesting to do more of them. It shows on the field, as he was one of only a handful of teenagers to put up 300 PAs with a BB%>10% and K%<20%, joining in top overall lines with top prospects from other organizations like Edgar Quero (LAA), Evan Carter (TEX), and Adael Amador (COL).
Lee has a simple, easy right-handed swing and a good approach and pitch recognition, which allows him to consistently get the bat on the ball. He did not post the highest high end exit velocities for Clearwater (90th percentile EV of 101.5mph), but posted solid average exit velocities. He also did not see the drop off that some players do, maintaining a high level of impact for most of his balls in play. He probably puts a few too many balls on the ground, but he maintains a good line drive rate which should drive a decent batting average. Looking at contact data, he does not show any weaknesses to any pitch types and sees a much lower than average increase in his whiff percentages when facing high velocity fastballs and high spin breaking balls. He is going to need to hit the ball a bit harder as he ages, but given his feel for contact, approach, and pitch recognition, it is likely he will do a good job in maximizing his power output.
Defensively, the Phillies have moved Lee around the infield, but he does not really have the range or arm for shortstop, and the arm is suspect at third base as well. He should be able to play a solid second base, but is unlikely to ever be a real asset there. The defensive position will put pressure on the bat, and that is where the real sort of risk is with Lee. There is a high probability, for a player of Lee’s age and experience, that Lee makes enough contact. He is going to need to have that contact come with probably 15-20 home runs a year, and a good amount of line drive doubles as well, in order to be an above average player. There is a chance he can be solid, but not elite, across all three triple slash categories, and that is probably good enough to be a first division regular and occasional all-star.
2023 Outlook: The Phillies sent Lee to Jersey Shore to end the year. He is likely to feel the power suppression that is that ballpark to right handed batters, but given his polish he should push his way west to Reading by sometime over the summer.
ETA: 2025
Previous Rank: 12
5. Justin Crawford, OF
Age: 1/13/04 (19)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 1st Round of the 2022 Draft
B/T: L/R
H/W: 6’3” 175lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| FCL (CPX) | 11 | 43 | 0 | 8 | 11.6% | 14.0% | .297 | .395 | .351 |
| CLW( (A-) | 5 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 8.7% | 39.1% | .143 | .217 | .143 |
Role: Regular Center Fielder
Risk: Extreme – Crawford’s risk comes in two forms. The first is the obvious, he is 19 years old, not physically mature, and a long way of development away from the majors. The other is that he does not make consistent hard or impactful contact with the ball.
Summary: The Phillies have spent a few years showing they struggle to develop hitters and succeed with pitchers, particularly high school arms. They decided to take the challenge of correcting that fully on, by going with a long term project of a pick. Crawford comes from good bloodlines, but even if he wasn’t Carl Crawford’s son there is obvious talent to work with. He has a lanky frame that is unlikely to fill out for big time power, but should also maintain his athleticism as he fills out. That is important because he is at least a plus plus runner who should be a plus center field defender in the long term. His swing looks good, and he can get the bat on the ball. He just does not have much impact behind the swing and does not seem to be adept at finding his pitches to drive and then doing damage on them.
There is not really a role for a slap and run hitter in the modern game, especially not from a player taken with the 17th pick in the draft. This does not mean that Crawford is going to need to become a 20+ home run hitter to have value to a major league team. He is going to need to at least be able to hit hard line drives so that he can use his legs to get extra bases in the gaps. Ideally though, you want to take a projectable bodied teenager with elite athleticism and get a plus bat at a premium position out of it. Crawford has only played in 16 professional games, and the Phillies have made some distinct changes in their hitting development personnel, so this is not a fated poor outcome.
2023 Outlook: The Phillies will likely send Crawford back to the Threshers where he should spend most of the season. They have given late season promotions to their top prospects, so he could end the year in Jersey Shore. We might not see the power numbers yet, but it would be good to see him start to show the underlying swing characteristics to allow him to utilize his strength as he grows into it.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: N/A
6. Johan Rojas
Age: 8/14/00 (22)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in January 2018
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’1” 165lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| JS (A+) | 70 | 292 | 3 | 33 | 7.2% | 18.8% | .230 | .287 | .325 |
| REA (AA) | 60 | 264 | 4 | 29 | 8.0% | 16.7% | .260 | .333 | .387 |
| SUR (AFL) | 12 | 52 | 0 | 13 | 15.4% | 15.4% | .310 | .423 | .452 |
Role: Regular Center Fielder
Risk: High – Rojas swings at and makes poor contact on a bunch of pitches he shouldn’t, and he does not swing at some pitches he should. He has improved in this area, but his pitch recognition and approach still are not where they need to be. He also hits the ball on the ground a bit too much, which is exacerbated by making contact with pitches he should not be swinging at. If he does not make improvements, he is likely only ever going to be a speed and defense outfielder. There are a whole lot of other great things going on with Rojas, but the hit tool not being where it needs to be is at the core of his profile.
Summary: The Phillies signed Rojas as an interesting bat for $10,000 to fill out their DSL teams in 2018, and he quickly blossomed into a top prospect within a year and a half. He looks the part physically and has most of the scouting report boxes checked. He also is one of the funnest players to watch play, because he goes all out on the field and seems to be having a great time doing it. Those around him rave about his worth ethic and desire to learn and improve.
And the tools are very good. He has at least plus plus speed, possibly 80 grade. He uses it to be a plus plus defensive center fielder with great jumps and range for days. On the bases he is both smart and aggressive, not afraid to always be running, but also getting great jumps and reads. It isn’t just the steals, as he will aggressively take extra bases when on base or turn singles into doubles if the outfielder hesitates. He has good bat speed at the plate, generating some high end exit velocities and overall plus raw power. He also isn’t just selling out for power, as he has a good feel for getting the bat on the baseball. His overall approach in how we usually think about it isn’t bad, he is an aggressive hitter, but he is not a hacker, and he does seem to know what he should be doing.
The problem has been that he does not seem to be recognizing pitches and getting to the place where he is attacking the right pitches in the right places. If he is off on a swing, he often has the ability to get the bat on the ball and foul it off or put it in play. Unfortunately, most of what he is putting in play is ground balls and non-dangerous fly balls. This is also not a new problem, nor is it a problem the Phillies haven’t been trying to solve for the last two years. This year, as a member of the 40 man roster, he will be in big league camp and so the big league staff will get to work with him and the minor league staff to come up with a plan. Historically, the Phillies have not been good at achieving gains in this area (see the rest of this top 50), which is also why they reorganized their hitting dev this year. That is by no means an answer by itself, but it is an acknowledgement that they are not succeeding here.
The Role and Risk above do hide a bit of the overall scope of potential outcomes for Rojas. There is probably a major league role he is not far off of that is being a team’s backup center fielder, who comes in as a defensive replacement and pinch runner. There is an average regular ceiling, that may not be too terribly off of what Brandon Marsh was for them last season, that relies on him improving enough to bat 8th or 9th in a lineup. There is also an outcome above the average regular, also much like Marsh, where this all comes together and maybe either the average or on base aren’t peak, and the power is below potential, but he is an above average hitter with great defense and base running and that is a 4+ win player. It is one of the hardest things in baseball to improve, but Rojas does have the intangibles that are generally positive if you want to bet on someone overcoming difficulty.
2023 Outlook: The Phillies don’t really need Rojas in 2023 unless all of the center fielders get hurt again. He is on the 40 man roster, so you cannot rule out a scenario in September, or perhaps a potential postseason roster spot, where having a speed and defense bench player would provide value. Rojas is on the 40 man roster, so his timer is also now ticking. It makes the most sense for the Phillies and Rojas for him to play as much as possible in 2023, so a start in Reading with a promotion at least for the end of the Lehigh Valley season seems like the plan.
ETA: 2024
Previous Rank: 4
The Phillies system has a clear number 1 prospect, and for me a clear 2 and 3, followed by prospects 4, 5, and 6. There are some that disagree with the 3-6 order, but the top 6 are likely to universally be the top 6 on all lists. The gap to this group is a large one. While I feel confident in my groupings, I am sure there are many of you that would move a player up or down between these groups. The gaps previously have been noticeable, but they haven’t been large. This group is the plateau that is reached via all of those incremental steps. We have climbed up a good way above the bottom levels of the system, but you look out and there is a very skinny mountain ahead. This is where the Phillies’ challenge will be in building the system for long term stability, they need to expand the pool of prospects that are in the group above this, and in this group itself. Ideally, you would want to see this group running down to 20, and not to 11. The Phillies do have some legitimate (and some not legitimate) reasons for why it is the way it is, and right now in the majors it is not actively hurting them, but here is the spot where their overall weaknesses are exposed even if the individual players are good and interesting.
7. William Bergolla Jr., SS
Age: 10/20/04 (18)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in January 2022
B/T: L/R
H/W: 5’11” 165lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| DSL (CPX) | 24 | 83 | 0 | 2 | 13.3% | 3.6% | .380 | .470 | .423 |
Role: Regular Shortstop
Risk: Extreme – Bergolla has played 24 regular season games of professional ball in the DSL. Those games may have looked good, but he is an eternity of adjustments and physical growth away.
Summary: The Phillies signed Bergolla as their big international signing in 2022. An injury delayed his professional debut until late July. He then played through the rest of the year helping DSL Phillies White to the league championship. Bergolla has a thinner frame, but has room to add some strength as he matures. This is probably the biggest concern with his future, as he did not hit for much power this summer and did not elevate much at all. He is never going to be a big slugger, but it is not unreasonable that he could get to a point where he is a 10-15 home run a year player. He will need to get at least close to that in order for pitchers to respect him enough at the plate.
The rest of Bergolla’s game is really solid and beyond his years. He is not necessarily a flashy shortstop, but he has enough range and arm for the position while playing calm and under control. He stands out at the plate with a simple solid left handed swing that currently is hitting line drives and solid ground balls, but has the mechanics to incorporate any strength he does add. He has a good feel for contact, and while DSL stats aren’t a real director of future success, Bergolla’s 3.6% K% was the lowest by a DSL hitter with at least 80 PAs since 2015. This is helped by an approach and pitch recognition that is beyond a player of his age and level. Bergolla is not afraid to work counts and has a great feel for the strike zone. He even sometimes has a mini version of the Juan Soto stare on balls.
If Bergolla can be a plus shortstop and maintain the contact/approach abilities, he has a really high floor for someone who just turned 18. If he had the frame and bat speed where you could project average or plus power he might be a star, but the power projection is enough of a worry to really temper expectations.
2023 Outlook: The Phillies have already brought Bergolla stateside this year for the High Performance Camp, so it would be extremely surprising if his year did not consist of Extended Spring Training and the Florida Coast League. Bergolla likely will be able to get away with making a large amount of contact driving a good batting average like Luis Garcia did in 2018, so we may not see the limits of his power output tested until he reaches A-ball.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: N/A
8. Simon Muzziotti, OF
Age: 12/27/98 (24)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in July 2016 (Previous contract with Red Sox was voided)
B/T: L/L
H/W: 6’1” 175lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| FCL (CPX) | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| CLW (A-) | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 11.1% | 44.4% | .000 | .111 | .000 |
| REA (AA) | 38 | 165 | 5 | 7 | 11.5% | 18.8% | .259 | .339 | .455 |
| LHV (AAA) | 5 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 11.1% | 16.7% | .313 | .389 | .313 |
| PHI (MLB) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 22.2% | .134 | .250 | .143 |
Role: Regular Center Fielder
Risk: High – If you wanted to say he is Medium risk to be a Second Division Regular or 4th outfielder it is totally fair. Muzziotti has played exactly 100 games in the last 3 seasons, so reading into anything he has done in that time is an exercise in reading small sample sizes the way you want to see them. His best projection has him as a good defensive center fielder who is probably about average with the bat.
Summary: Simon Muzziotti missed the 2020 season, because all minor leaguers missed the 2020 season, but he got stuck stateside, which prevented him from getting a work visa for 2021 until the end of the summer, and then in 2022 he had a brief trip to the majors then got hurt twice early in the year, finally played for 2 months, before then having a partial tear of a patellar tendon end his year in late August. If that felt like a lot, it is because it was and it means between rehab, level changes, the Arizona Fall League, and a brief VWL appearance he has played only 100 games in 2021 and 2022 combined.
For not playing very much, there are real improvements to point to. The Phillies spent the AFL in 2021 getting him to be more selective at the plate, which traded a few more strikeouts for a lot more walks and a drop in poor contact as Muzziotti stopped swinging at, and hitting, pitches he shouldn’t be swinging at. He has also gotten stronger and is impacting the ball a bit more. He is hitting the ball in the air more, and while he has had a drop in his line drive rate, the increase in balls in the air has come mostly from his very high ground ball rate. This led to 5 home runs in AA (only 1 in Reading) in just 46 games, which was more home runs than he had in his entire career prior to 2022. He is never going to be a big home run hitter, but he has good rotation and solid strength, meaning double digit home runs are not a pipe dream and he should get a decent number of doubles as he is actually able to get the ball into the gaps.
He is still a good center field defender (assuming he comes back fully healthy from the knee injury) and has been a willing, if undisciplined, base runner. If the batting improvements are real, he has the sneaky chance to be a solid player. Given Brandon Marsh’s place in Philly, there does not seem to be a long term place for him. If he can stay healthy and play, he will function as depth and could be a decent trade chip at the deadline or next season.
2023 Outlook: The best thing for Muzziotti will be for him to go to AAA and play a bunch of baseball games. Given the makeup of the Phillies roster, he is probably the primary injury backup if Brandon Marsh gets hurt, but is not really a fit on the roster with Marsh.
ETA: 2022
Previous Rank: 10
9. Alex McFarlane, RHP
Age: 6/9/01 (21)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 4th Round of the 2022 Draft
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’4” 215lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| CLW (A-) | 3 | 3 | 0-3 | 8.0 | 9.00 | 13.5 | 1.1 | 8.3% | 33.3% |
Role: Infuriating #3 Starter/Late Inning Reliever
Risk: High – McFarlane has a long college track record of not pitching well as a starter, and not getting results equal to his stuff. The Phillies have had a good track record of improving this type of pitcher, so his plight is slightly different than their hitter draftees.
Summary: It is easy to look at McFarlane when the Phillies drafted him and see another Griff McGarry. McFarlane does not have McGarry’s extreme control issues, but he also does not have the track record as a starting pitcher. McGarry had a good run in the NCAA tournament before the draft, and McFarlane had a good 5 appearances in the Cape Cod League. Both have big spin on all of their pitches and can unleash some highlight reel stuff. That is where the comparison mostly ends. McGarry came out and looked elite in starts that stretched up to hi-A and McFarlane made 3 very ordinary statistical appearances for Clearwater.
The fastball is another derivation. McFarlane averages in the mid 90s and got up to 98 in the pros, and 99 in college. Both his 4-seam fastball and sinker averaged about 2700 RPM in his pro debut, but his 4-seamer has more run and sink than the riding fastballs of the Phillies top pitching prospects. His sinker looks really nasty on video, with strong armside run, but the movement profile means it tends to break into the hitting path more than an elite fastball. He does back it up with some good secondary pitches with his changeup picking up where the fastball leaves off with less fade and run, and more strong boring action down and armside. He can run it off the plate to lefties and down to righties, and it is a true plus pitch and it might be his out pitch long term. He has a high spin sweeping slider that flashes plus potential as well. He can throw all of his pitches around the strike zone, but he lacks command of them.
McFarlane is sort of the opposite of Rincones, in that he is a development case we have seen from the Phillies before. He doesn’t have the exact attributes of Nola or Suarez, but the Phillies have molded sinker heavy pitchers just as much as they have the ones with high spin rise ball fastballs. If you heard he added a cutter to play off the slider and sinker, it would not surprise you. He has not yet made those changes though, and he still remains a player with an non-ideal arsenal that does not seem to get the results to match the look.
2023 Outlook: McFarlane is a high round pick who started games in a major conference, it would be a surprise to not see him at Jersey Shore to start the year. Given the current shape of his arsenal, it will be an early watch point to see what changes the Phillies make to optimize it over time.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: N/A
10. Andrew Baker, RHP
Age: 3/24/00 (22)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 11th Round of the 2021 Draft
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’3” 190lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| JS (A+) | 40 | 0 | 3-1 | 43.2 | 4.74 | 8.5 | 1.0 | 12.1% | 30.8% |
| REA (AA) | 6 | 0 | 1-0 | 10.2 | 0.84 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 13.5% | 29.7% |
Role: High Leverage Reliever
Risk: Medium – It is less of a stretch to think about Baker consistently throwing strikes than it used to be. His fastball and curveball are major league ready right now, and he could be ready very soon.
Summary: The Phillies did not carry over much bonus pool to day 3 of the 2021 draft, so Baker at $200,000 was their biggest expenditure. Not the most experienced of pitchers, he showed big stuff in college, but also big control issues. It was the same in Clearwater last year, when he was up to 99 but walked more than he struck out. The beginning of 2022 was a lot of the same. Over the first 3 months, in his first 23 appearances, Baker went 22.2 IP 23 H 17 ER 18 BB 24 K. He kicked off July with another poor appearance before figuring something out in his delivery and running off a stretch of dominance. From that point on (including his 4 walks in his last two AA appearances), he went 30.2 IP 18 H 5 ER 11 BB 47 K.
It isn’t just the numbers with Baker, he backs it up with elite stuff. His fastball was sitting 97-99, touching up to 101, by the end of the year. It isn’t quite at the elite characteristics of Painter and McGarry, but has very good ride. His only secondary these days is a plus power curveball that sits 83-88. He has some definite similarities to Ken Giles, but his fastball is a bit more analytically friendly and his curveball is not quite where Giles’ slider was when he came up. The overall outcome of Baker’s development is not really a surprise in that it was likely to be a light switch going on rather than a linear growth. The surprise is that it happened so quickly.
2023 Outlook: Given he is off the 40 man roster and did not pitch very much in AA, Baker seems slated for Reading after his time in big league camp. The Phillies currently don’t have any obvious holes in the major league bullpen, but if Baker keeps on the path he ended 2022 on, he may force the Phillies hand at some point.
ETA: 2023
Previous Rank: 35
11. Carlos De La Cruz, OF
Age: 10/6/99 (23)
Acquired: Signed as an Undrafted Free Agent by the Phillies in August 2017
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’8” 210lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| JS (A+) | 64 | 241 | 10 | 5 | 7.9% | 31.1% | .266 | .344 | .463 |
| REA (AA) | 38 | 162 | 7 | 1 | 4.9% | 27.8% | .278 | .315 | .510 |
| SUR (AFL) | 17 | 68 | 3 | 0 | 5.9% | 39.7% | .307 | .368 | .516 |
Role: The Tallest Man On Your Major League Baseball Team
Risk: High – He probably won’t make enough contact to be on a major league baseball team, but if he does things get really interesting. The actual range of major league outcomes here is from “he is some sort of bench player who hits a big home run that you remember” to “he becomes a middle of the order, All-Star level slugger”.
Summary: Carlos De La Cruz is one of the more fascinating prospects the Phillies have had. Signed as an undrafted free agent out of high school off of a New York City travel team, De La Cruz showed intriguing skills in 2018 and 2019, but it was widely acknowledged that he still had a lot of development to go. Then the pandemic hit, and De La Cruz was in New York City under lockdowns turning a lost year into a complete disaster. His 2021 season looked like a player who spent most of the last year unable to do anything. The Phillies even left him exposed to the minor league Rule 5 draft after the season. He looked like the old De La Cruz in 2022. He had to earn his playing time as he rebuilt his prospect stature, and went from one of the BlueClaws’ best players to a promotion to Reading and then a trip to the Arizona Fall League.
The player is even more fascinating than the story. De La Cruz is listed at a very lanky 6’8”, and he has filled that out since signing, but he also is likely taller than his listed height. He is a plus runner, who right now can show you a competent center field. He primarily has played the corners, but the Phillies have also worked him in at first base which opens up some long term flexibility, and if he makes it work, a very large target for throws. At the plate, De La Cruz looks like he is swinging a novelty bat and has great bat speed, and when combined with his long levers he has plus plus raw power. Those long levers do lead to a lot of swing and miss. His pitch recognition and approach are improving, but they are still well below major league caliber. Given his raw power, you probably want him elevating the ball a bit more, but that likely will improve as he swings at better pitches.
The most likely outcome is that De La Cruz stalls out in AA or AAA, unable to make enough contact for a major league role. Maybe he makes just enough contact that he is sort of a 5th/OFer who can play first in a pinch who hits the occasional big home run. However, the underlying skills and athleticism means that any hit tool improvements are going to be magnified. It is a very low chance he becomes a star, but that 99th percentile outcome might be that he is a superstar.
2023 Outlook: De La Cruz will likely go to Reading, where he should get plenty of at bats in a favorable ballpark. He is a minor league free agent after the season, so a stumble could see him embark on a team to team odyssey of organizations trying to unlock him, but a good year could force the Phillies’ hand to put him on the 40 man roster and figure out if he has a future role in the org.
ETA: 2024
Previous Rank: UR
When someone offers something risky we expect the other side of the equation to be some sort of reward. The same is true in baseball, if I say a prospect is at an extreme or high risk of not achieving their ceiling, it is much easier to accept that risk if the payoff is a potential impact or at least everyday player. Risk is also not all equal. There is risk because a player has a linchpin skill that is failing to materialize after repeated effort, but there is risk because a player has not yet entered the dungeon full of traps. We know there will be pitfalls with these players, because there are always pitfalls, but they have not yet had the floor disappear below them. So do not ignore the dangers ahead, but it is good to face the peril with an optimistic face and hope about what treasure might be at the end.
12. Gabriel Rincones Jr., OF
Age: 3/3/01 (21)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 3rd Round of the 2022 Draft
B/T: L/R
H/W: 6’4” 225lbs
2022 Stats:
Did not play in a pro game in 2022
Role: Everyday Corner Outfielder or First Baseman
Risk: High – Rincones has some underlying stats that look good and a year in a non-major college conference. It isn’t nothing, but it is not enough to build a picture of a safe prospect. Regardless of which defensive position he ends up at, his bat will need to carry his future value.
Summary: Under Brian Barber, the Phillies have been all about drafting big tools. On the hitting side that has meant speed and exit velocity. Rincones was an exit velocity monster at Florida Atlantic last season, hitting .346/.451/.658 on the year. He has the frame and strength to back up the power numbers. Rincones was a junior college transfer, so he does not have much track record hitting against top end pitchers, and even his college experience wasn’t in a big conference. He had an injury this summer that the Phillies were cautious with, holding him out of professional games. A hurricane washed out most of the observable parts of Fall Instructs, so Rincones remains mostly a mystery. In the field, the Phillies and Rincones say he moves better than the reports, and that he should stay in an outfield corner, but there are some that look at his frame and athleticism and see first base or designated hitter as his final position.
Rincones is not Casey Martin or Baron Radcliff at the plate, but he does have some hit tool questions. The Phillies have historically not been great at identifying and then improving players like Rincones, which brings some major worries about the Phillies ability to maximize his potential. If the new Phillies development team can help him develop, he has the raw power to be a middle of the order masher that will make his final defensive position ultimately irrelevant.
2023 Outlook: Given that he played in Instructs and High Performance Camp, Rincones appears to be healthy and ready to go for the season. Unless he crashes and burns in the spring, he likely goes north to Jersey Shore where he should spend most of the season. Given his lack of experience vs top pitchers there is a chance there are struggles in his future.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: N/A
13. Emaarion Boyd, OF
Age: 8/22/03 (19)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 11th Round of the 2022 Draft
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’1” 177lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| FCL (CPX) | 9 | 36 | 0 | 7 | 13.9% | 13.9% | .345 | .472 | .379 |
| CLW (A-) | 2 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | .429 | .500 | .429 |
Role: Defense First Everyday Center Fielder
Risk: Extreme – Boyd is not physically at a level where he would survive the major leagues, and unlike some of his peers there is a worry his body won’t ever allow him to get there. On the positive side, he looked like he belonged in pro ball after signing.
Summary: The Phillies drafted Boyd in the 11th round and signed him to their second highest bonus in their class behind Justin Crawford. Boyd is a lanky athletic right handed hitter. His biggest asset is his speed which is at least plus plus and translates to plus plus defense in center field. At the plate, Boyd showed a solid approach and feel for contact in his pro debut. Right now that contact comes with little impact, with Boyd currently lacking strength. Boyd has a narrow frame, and while he should put on strength going forward, it is unlikely that he will ever add enough to be a power threat.
Boyd’s defensive ceiling gives him a high floor to build upon, but it is not a high enough floor to be a major leaguer, as high end speedsters before him like Roman Quinn, Billy Hamilton, and Jarrod Dyson have struggled to be everyday players and in some cases not even bench bats. In order for Boyd to be a good prospect, he will need to be an at least minimal offensive threat. While he will never be a huge home run hitter, it will be important that he is putting the ball for solid line drive contact and not just slapping and running.
2023 Outlook: Boyd looked polished enough in his debut that the Phillies sent him to Clearwater after the FCL season ended. He should return to the Threshers and will likely spend all or most of the season in Florida.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: N/A
14. Jaydenn Estanista, RHP
Age: 10/3/01 (21)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in November 2019
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’3” 180lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| FCL (CPX) | 12 | 5 | 3-0 | 31.1 | 2.01 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 13.6% | 29.7% |
Role: #3/#4 Starter / 7th/8th Inning Reliever
Risk: Extreme – Estinista is more of a dream or an idea than an actually formed prospect. It is a really nice dream, but when you strip back the illusion it is a pitcher with a good fastball, and not much else yet.
Summary: Estanista was signed by the Phillies as an 18 year old out of Curacao in November of 2019, meaning he would not actually make his pro debut until he was 19 in the summer of 2021. He showed enough promise that the Phillies brought him stateside in 2022. Now 21, with 30+ innings of experience stateside, it is obvious what the Phillies find intriguing about Estanista. He has a projectable 6’3” frame that he is starting to fill out, but he has room for more. His delivery is fairly athletic and he comes from a high three quarter delivery. His fastball is the thing that immediately jumps out, it sits 93 to 96, touching 97, with good ride. He doesn’t really command it yet, but he can throw it for strikes and is showing some ability to work the top and bottom of the zone. He is still fairly new to pitching and the secondary pitches show it. He has some feel for spin, but he has a tendency to slow his arm and cast the curveball. They introduced a mid to high 80s slider/cutter hybrid pitch late in the season that he showed some promise with. He has worked on a changeup, but has not really used it in games. Estanista is definitely not a finished product, and is behind some of the other complex level breakout arms of the past like Adonis Medina or Franklyn Kilome were at the same point in their careers. That said, he has the fastball characteristics that those two arms did not, and knowing what we know now, that makes him very interesting. Ideally you would like to have this report attached to an 18 or 19 year old arm, but Estanista’s lack of experience makes his developmental path much like a young arm, because his struggles are due to development that has not yet happened as opposed to development that has failed. The Phillies will have every reason to keep Estanista in a rotation to build reps, and given his age and signing timeline, they may cause them to accelerate his level if he shows success in Clearwater. Given the current lack of a usable changeup, he has a high risk of being a reliever in the long term, but that is a conversation to revisit in a couple of years.
2023 Outlook: Estanista may be raw, but he is 21 and his Rule 5 clock is ticking. The Phillies may have to manage his innings, but they are going to need to start him with Clearwater and push him to Jersey Shore if his fastball allows him to manage Low-A.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: UR
15. Enrique Segura, RHP
Age: 12/19/04 (18)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in January 2022
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’3” 175lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| DSL (CPX) | 13 | 8 | 5-1 | 42.2 | 2.32 | 7.6 | 0.2 | 12.3% | 21.8% |
Role: #3/#4 Starter
Risk: Extreme – It is a sign of the times that we have as much on Segura as we do given it has barely been a year since he has signed, and he has only pitched in games in the Dominican Summer League. He has an eternity between him and any major league role.
Summary: For only getting $80,000 to sign in January 2022, Segura was immediately generating some buzz, making Baseball America’s highlights of the Phillies signing class before appearing in a DSL game. Segura has a projectable 6’3” frame with long limbs. His delivery is very reminiscent of Aaron Nola, with a high leg lift and a whippy arm action. The delivery is not the only place of comparison to Nola. Segura’s fastball sits 92-94 with some 95s (and according to Steve Potter touched up to 97 in non-game action), and the pitch features good sink and run. Segura shows feel for a solid changeup in the mid 80s with solid fade, that he sells pretty well off the fastball, but it is less of a plus pitch, and more one to keep hitters honest. Segura throws a pair of breaking balls, the better of which is likely a two plane slider in the low 80s that does act a lot like Nola’s curveball in this comparison, and while it lacks consistency now, he will break off some that show true plus potential and the ability to be a bat misser. He also throws a good curveball in the 78-81 mph range that blends into the slider range, but has more vertical movement than the slider. He does have them blend a bit, but they should be two distinct pitches to keep hitters off balance. Segura shows a feel for commanding his pitches, throwing his fastball to both corners down and throwing the breaking balls for strikes and breaking them off the plate for misses. He does miss armside with his fastball and can overthrow down and gloveside.
The lack of a dominating fastball means that Segura’s slider will need to actualize into a bat missing plus pitch. The impressive feel for a complete starter’s arsenal at his age makes Segura very intriguing and might have him moving quicker than your prototypical teenage arm. For now, he should be stateside to open the season, having already come over for the Phillies High Performance Camp.
2023 Outlook: As an 18 year old arm, it is hard to see Segura seeing game action before the start of the FCL season. If he performs well there, maybe he gets a late season bump to Clearwater after the FCL season ends.
ETA: 2028
Previous Rank: N/A
16. Nikau Pouaka-Grego, 2B
Age: 9/13/04 (18)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in January 2022
B/T: L/R
H/W: 5’10” 175lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| FCL (CPX) | 35 | 125 | 3 | 2 | 12.8% | 12.8% | .301 | .424 | .466 |
Role: Everyday Infielder, Probably at Second
Risk: Extreme – Pouaka-Grego had about as good a debut as a 17 year old could have in the FCL. He looks like he has a chance to really hit. The real question will be how much power can he actually hit for, and will it be enough for whichever position he ends up at defensively.
Summary: For the second year in a row the Phillies signed an international second baseman and sent them directly to the Florida Coast League. Pouaka-Grego has less physicality and track record than Hao Yu Lee, but he was also a year younger. One of just a handful of 17 year olds in a stateside complex, he was also one of the best hitters in the Florida Coast League. He has shown a good feel for contact and approach at the plate. Pouaka-Grego hit for a surprising amount of power due to a quick swing, though he does not post the same high end exit velocities Lee did, but he does make hard enough contact to actualize much of the power he grows into. The biggest question for Pouaka-Grego is his position. He is still moving around the infield and probably is best fit at second base, but he is not a good defender there yet. If he has to move off of the infield dirt, his bat would need to take a large step forward to play in an outfield corner.
Normally, Pouaka-Grego would be slated to join the Threshers as one of the few 18 year olds in full season ball. However, while playing for Adelaide this winter he suffered a knee injury that ended his winter season and seems possible to linger into the minor league season. Depending on the severity (has not been publicly stated), he might start his year with the FCL again before making his way to the Threshers later. If he does lose significant time to injury, it is a pity but he is young enough and will likely go to winter ball again, so he should be able to get back on track soon.
2023 Outlook: We don’t have clarity on Pouaka-Grego’s injury, so it is hard to project how his full 2023 season might look. Assuming he does come back over the summer, he probably gets some time with the Threshers with a look at making up at bats in the ABL (probably with Adelaide).
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: N/A
17. Rickardo Perez, C
Age: 12/4/03 (19)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in January 2021
B/T: L/R
H/W: 5’10” 172
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| FCL (CPX) | 30 | 93 | 1 | 0 | 7.5% | 14.0% | .349 | .387 | .398 |
Role: Everyday Catcher
Risk: Extreme – Perez has taken another step forward, but it is still a long way to go before he is a viable major league catcher. He should theoretically start to tap into the power more, but it will be a question until he does.
Summary: The Phillies made Perez one of their two big signings in 2021. After a solid year in the DSL, they brought him stateside where things got off to a bit of a rocky start with an ankle injury in Spring Training costing Perez much of the spring. He started more games at DH than he did at catcher for the FCL Phillies, but he is a good defender who should stick behind the plate. At the plate he has a simple left-handed swing that generates a good amount of solid contact. He has yet to tap into his raw power and should hit for more extra bases than his stat line would indicate. He has a good approach at the plate as well. Nothing truly is a big plus for Perez, but he is a catcher who does a lot of things well. There is certainly a worry that his power output is more like Rafael Marchan, who has yet to consistently drive the ball, but he is still very young and he elevates it more than Marchan did at his level. Given injuries and shorter seasons have kept him from logging a lot of time behind the plate, there is a good chance that 2023 could be an offensive struggle as the rigors of catching wear on Perez.
2023 Outlook: The Phillies have a couple of low minors catchers they will likely want to get a look at in 2023, so Perez will likely see a decent amount of DH in addition to catching. That should allow the Phillies to not wear him down too much, but there is a chance that as a young catcher, the rigors of the season do suppress his numbers at points.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: 27
I already used the purgatory or waiting room analogy (or will later use it if you are coming to this late and starting from the beginning), so I won’t use it again. This group of 5 prospects are sort of a spectrum of the Phillies prospect experience. There is an older player who has broken out to be a contributor, a high level pick showing upside amidst struggle, an interesting pitcher who had a season lost to injury, a player on the cusp of the majors that seems to be falling back, and then a new pick who lacks the shine to ascend but has the history to have stumbled already. They are too good to be in the slog, but their star is not shooting through the sky. They also all have that tangible bit of hope you can pin to and say “this guy could be a major league contributor for a number of years” and be grasping a bit for optimism.
18. Dalton Guthrie, OF
Age: 12/23/95 (27)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 6th Round of the 2017 Draft
B/T: R/R
H/W: 5’11” 160lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| LHV (AAA) | 92 | 374 | 10 | 21 | 6.4% | 19.5% | .302 | .363 | .476 |
| PHI (MLB) | 14 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 21.4% | 25.0% | .333 | .500 | .476 |
Role: Positionally Flexible Bench Bat
Risk: Low – Dalton Guthrie is heading into his age 27 season, can play multiple up the middle positions defensively, hit well in AAA, and did not embarrass himself in a major league cameo. He may not have a high ceiling, but it is a pretty safe floor.
Summary: The Phillies drafted Guthrie back in 2017 as a glove first shortstop who had fallen from being a projected 1st round pick in the draft because of an arm injury. Guthrie spent a bunch of seasons not hitting in the Phillies system (OPS of .634 in 2018, .646 in 2019, and .681 in AA in 2021), until they sent him to AAA in 2021 because they needed a body. He has hit ever since. He also is now more of a center and right fielder than a shortstop, but he can still play all over the infield if needed. Guthrie has a fairly simple swing and a good feel for contact. He does not have big raw power, but he can hit one out and get a decent amount of doubles. What drives his batting average and contact profile is a lot of line drives, and probably a bit too many ground balls. He hit righties better than lefties in AAA, which should make him more than a strictly platoon bat. Guthrie is also an at least plus runner who is quite fast when underway.
He is on the older side, and there are holes in his offensive profile. He walked in his time in the majors, but it has never been a minor league strength. He makes a lot of good contact, but he does strike out at a high enough rate to not make a living as a pure contact guy. He can play a good center field, but he is not going to be a good enough defender there to carry any offensive deficiencies. This applies to a lot of his positional flexibility, where he is not a good enough defender for the premium positions and does not have a good enough bat for the non-premium ones. All this means that Guthrie lacks upside, but he fits very well on a modern bench where he can provide coverage at a lot of positions and is a good enough hitter to produce value when put into positions to succeed. He is still prospect eligible, but he is essentially already filling the role he projects to have.
2023 Outlook: Guthrie is the only player other than Brandon Marsh who projects to make the Opening Day roster and play a capable center field. If the Phillies don’t look to platoon Marsh, Guthrie probably has limited moments to get any consistent at bats, especially once Harper gets back, but probably should see late game defensive work and maybe an occasional start when someone rests.
ETA: 2022
Previous Rank: UR
19. Jordan Viars, OF
Age: 7/18/03 (19)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 3rd Round of the 2021 Draft
B/T: L/L
H/W: 6’4” 215lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| FCL (CPX) | 44 | 154 | 2 | 5 | 9.5% | 22.3% | .240 | .330 | .331 |
| CLW (A-) | 8 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 7.1% | 32.1% | .208 | .286 | .208 |
Role: Everyday Outfielder or First Baseman
Risk: Extreme – The tools are all there for Viars to be an impact bat, which is why the ceiling is unchanged. However, his chance of hitting that outcome took a hit last season, and while he is playing more outfield, it is not going to be a skill that adds value to his profile.
Summary: Viars looked slated to start with the Threshers in 2022, but an ankle injury in the spring delayed that start of his season, and he joined the FCL Phillies when their season began. After performing well at that level in 2021, 2022 was a struggle. Viars’ swing looked in between and his timing off. His bat is still quick and when he did make it to Clearwater, the batted ball data still suggests he can hit the ball harder than almost anyone in the system. However, the swing issues meant a lot of high fly balls, particularly on the infield as he got under the ball. Defensively, Viars looks to be settling into left field, with some time in right, but his stints at first base have come to an end. He won’t be a good defender in the outfield, but if he can at least stand out there, it does take a little pressure off of his bat. The underlying tools are still there for Viars, and despite a mature physique he does not turn 20 until July so he is still fairly young. The Phillies and him will need to find a swing that works for him. Given that 2022 was mostly a throwaway year, restarting with Clearwater seems like the path forward.
2023 Outlook: Viars barely played in Clearwater last year and is only 19, so spending the bulk of his season in Florida is probably in order. The Phillies have pushed their prospects at the end of seasons, so a late summer trip to Jersey Shore could be the reward for a bounce back season.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: 13
20. Christian McGowan, RHP
Age: 3/7/00 (22)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 7th Round of the 2021 Draft
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’3” 205
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| JS (A+) | 2 | 2 | 0-1 | 7.1 | 4.91 | 9.8 | 1.2 | 6.9% | 24.1% |
Role: #3/#4 Starter / 7th Inning Reliever
Risk: Extreme/High – It is a bit of a cop out, but there is a clear path post injury for McGowan as a sinker-slider reliever. Coming off of Tommy John surgery and throwing a full starter’s workload and arsenal requires a bit more wait and see. Given he appeared in two games in 2022 and we haven’t seen him post-surgery, it is a little early to say McGowan is absolutely a reliever going forward.
Summary: Much like fellow 2021 draftee Micah Ottenbreit, McGowan had a solid but slightly concerning start, and then a disastrous start followed by season ending Tommy John surgery in April. Assuming a normal recovery, McGowan should be back on a mound in a rehab capacity this spring and in games by the summer.
When healthy, McGowan has a mid 90s fastball that can touch higher and a good slider. He did not throw a changeup in pro ball in 2021 (5 innings), but did in college as well as a curveball. His stuff does not jump off the page statistically like many of the Phillies other draft picks, using more of a two seamer with good run and sink rather than a high spin 4 seamer. There were some rumblings that he profiled better as a reliever before the draft, but he does have a starter’s arsenal and build. Missing a year due to injury is certainly a development setback, but assuming McGowan can come back to where he was before the injury it should be more of a bump than a roadblock.
2023 Outlook: McGowan had surgery early in the 2022 season, so he should start throwing in the spring with a return over the summer. Depending on when that is, we could see McGowan ramp up from the complex to low-A, to back to hi-A Jersey Shore. If he comes back healthy, he will also be a prime candidate for the Arizona Fall League.
ETA: 2025
Previous Rank: 23
21. Francisco Morales, RHP
Age: 10/27/99 (23)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in July 2016
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’4” 185lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| REA (AA) | 23 | 0 | 2-0 | 30.1 | 1.48 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 14.7% | 46.6% |
| LHV (AAA) | 22 | 0 | 0-0 | 20.2 | 9.58 | 10.5 | 0.4 | 24.8% | 14.2% |
| SUR (AFL) | 9 | 0 | 1-0 | 10.2 | 0.84 | 3.4 | 0.0 | 15.9% | 38.6% |
| PHI (MLB) | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 5.0 | 7.20 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 28.6% | 14.3% |
Role: 6th/7th Inning Reliever
Risk: Medium – Without Morales completely reinventing himself, the high leverage upside is probably gone for him. His slider is a good enough pitch that a team likely figures to get some good middle relief years out of him.
Summary: The Phillies moved Morales to the bullpen to open the year, with the hope that his stuff and control would play up in the short bursts and he could help the Phillies quickly. It looked to be off to a good start with Morales striking out 28 and walking only 6 across 16.1 innings to open the season. He got a brief cameo with the Phillies and earned a big league save (in a game where he walked 3). He then went to AAA and everything fell apart. He eventually was demoted to AA, where he was good again, and then was bad again upon returning to AAA. He had good results, but poor control in the AFL. It was all enough for the Phillies, and every other team in baseball, to determine they didn’t want him on their 40 man roster.
Morales still looks the part. He has gotten his frame back in shape and is a bit more athletic. His slider isn’t a high spin monster, but he has great feel for manipulating the shape of it, and overall it is a plus pitch that acts like a power curveball. His fastball is where the problem lies. It has good velocity (94-97), but has no run or cut while not having any rise either. We now know it is more of an average pitch, and with his inability to command it, a real liability. The Phillies have tried adding a cutter to protect it, but he struggled to command it. At this point, it is unlikely that the Phillies are going to make a dramatic change to the shape of the fastball, so it would behoove them to find some other pitch to help diversify Morales’s arsenal. The slider is good enough to carry Morales to a major league relief role if he can make some improvements. He is only 23, so there is time to find another average pitch or to throw the fastball with just enough command to not have it obliterated.
2023 Outlook: Morales is no longer on the 40 man roster and is buried behind a lot of high octane pitchers who are on the roster. He should return to face his demons in AAA, and he has the talent to regain a spot on the 40 man roster if he can have success there.
ETA: 2022
Previous Rank: 16
22. Orion Kerkering, RHP
Age: 4/4/01 (21)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 5th Round of the 2022 Draft
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’2” 204lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| FCL (CPX) | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 1.0 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| CLW (A-) | 5 | 0 | 1-0 | 6.0 | 4.50 | 10.5 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 24.0% |
Role: 7th Inning Reliever
Risk: Medium – Kerkering is a tailor made good 4th to 6th best reliever in a bullpen. He has a good fastball and a wicked breaking ball that is at least plus. He has a track record of success in college out of the bullpen.
Summary: The Phillies have not been afraid to take college pitchers they view as relievers early and often in the draft. There is a small chance they do attempt to move Kerkering back into the rotation in 2023, but everything about his profile says fast moving reliever. His fastball (of the 4 and 2 seam varieties) is a solid pitch, sitting around 95 and reaching up to 97 in pro ball. He threw a changeup in college, but none as a pro. The big selling point on Kerkering is his slider (of which Statcast typed many as curveballs). It averaged right about 3000 RPM in pro-ball, sitting about 85 mph with big, two plane sweep. It projects as at least a plus pitch, and it will not be surprising if it is Kerkering’s most used pitch for much of his career. He has shown no qualms about breaking it down on the feet of lefties, keeping him from being an extreme platoon arm. Given the lack of a dominant fastball or other pitch/attribute it is hard to see Kerkering as an 8th/9th inning lockdown reliever, but he could move quickly in more of the middle to 7th inning type role, where the Phillies could see if can handle multiple innings.
2023 Outlook: Assuming they don’t try to mess with success and put Kerkering in a rotation again, they should send him to Jersey Shore where he should move quickly if he has success. It is highly unlikely he ascends in a way that puts himself in position for a role in 2023, but he can ascend to at least AA and get himself in the conversation as 2024 depth.
ETA: 2025
Previous Rank: N/A
The bulk of any minor league system ranking like this is going to be made up of players with a major league upside, but with a low probability of achieving that outcome. It could be because they are so young and far away that they do not yet have the skills, and while the hints are there, there is no definitive proof that they will grow into them. There are also players who project for lower end roles (bench bats, backup catchers, non-high leverage relievers) where the difference between a major league career and AAAA journeyman is razor thin and they don’t have the results or consistency to have pushed over that knife’s edge. It is also a place of passage as previously well thought of players fade as they don’t develop in a way that was previously projected, and other players rise up as they ascend towards a major league role. For the Phillies system, this area is vast, starting at a ranking where you would ideally want prospects with a bit more safety and upside, and stretching down to possibly encompass the 41-50 group already posted and down below that. If the Phillies are to make changes to the trajectory of the system, this is the group where they are going to need to start showing some results in getting contributors from players that are unexpected.
23. Ethan Wilson, OF
Age: 11/7/99 (23)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 2nd Round of the 2021 Draft
B/T: L/L
H/W: 6’1” 210lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| JS (A+) | 112 | 458 | 7 | 25 | 6.1% | 20.3% | .238 | .290 | .344 |
| REA (AA) | 18 | 78 | 1 | 1 | 6.4% | 26.9% | .214 | .286 | .286 |
Role: Second Division Left Fielder
Risk: Extreme – The Ethan Wilson that played in 2022 was widely considered not a prospect. He is a corner outfielder who did not hit for any impact, and did not show any inclination that he was changing that trajectory. He was highly regarded out of college, so maybe an offseason is enough to help him get back on track.
Summary: Wilson was one of the best hitters in college baseball in 2021, showing huge growths in contact and approach, though at the expense of the power that put him on the map in 2019. The word out of the complex to end last season was that Wilson’s poor results with the Threshers were due to exhaustion and working to marry the power stroke of 2019 and the contact and approach of 2021.
The 2022 season was a disaster for Wilson. His swing decisions were poor, with only a decent feel for getting the bat on the ball, keeping the strikeout rate at a reasonable level. Otherwise, his walk rate cratered and his contact quality collapsed as he made contact on bad pitches. He hit the ball on the ground or weakly in the air as his bat path just was not conducive to driving the ball. The general consensus from those that saw him was that he did not look like a prospect at all. His offensive struggles are exacerbated by his defensive limitations. Wilson moves pretty well, but not well enough for center field, and his arm is really not a good fit in right. That means he is left field only and a passable, but not plus, defender out there. That leaves all of his value dependent on his offensive output.
Given his college track record, and the Phillies hitting development struggles, it is probably too early to permanently bury Wilson. However, his prospect stature is not a measure of what he looked like in 2022, it is more of a reflection on the past talent and that a new set of development eyes may be able to unlock that again.
2023 Outlook: The Phillies pushed Wilson to AA to end the season, so that is probably where he starts the 2023 season. There are not any outfield prospects really pushing Wilson from below, so he should have time to try and get back on track.
ETA: 2025
Previous Rank: 8
24. Jhailyn Ortiz, OF
Age: 11/18/98 (24)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in July 2015
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’3” 215lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| REA (AA) | 19 | 505 | 17 | 9 | 8.5% | 32.7% | .237 | .319 | .415 |
| SUR (AFL) | 14 | 53 | 3 | 0 | 15.1% | 28.3% | .163 | .321 | .372 |
Role: Power Oriented 4th Outfielder
Risk: High – Ortiz still does not make enough contact to bring confidence that he can hit major league pitching. He isn’t that far off from being a platoon bat and can bring power off the bench, especially if he can at least stand in center in an emergency, but the contact improvement step is a big one.
Summary: Ortiz has had a slow growth through the Phillies system, making incremental improvement at each level as he ascended. Reading, in 2022, did represent a bit of a stumble in that regard. He struck out a bit more than his usually high rate and walked a little less than he did in 2021. He still has tremendous raw power, and he gets the ball in the air to the pull side at a high rate. It does come with a decent amount of poor contact, particularly in weak fly balls. The good news is that he hit about the same at home and on the road, so there is no Reading bump to account for. He continues to be a good right fielder, who can stand in center better than you expect, and he has a strong arm. He can be a bit too aggressive in both his outfield routes and in his throws, which contributed to some high error numbers.
In the end, we can talk about solid defense and incremental improvement, but it continues to be a question if Ortiz will make enough contact. His pitch recognition is still not great and his mighty hacks are not conducive to making midswing adjustments. If he makes just a below average amount of contact, he might produce enough power to be a fringe bench outfielder, but he will need to improve where he is now to reach that.
2023 Outlook: There is an obvious AAA outfield spot available for him as the Phillies have not really been able to backfill the depth side. His pathway to the majors is to offer the most amount of impact if the Phillies suffer an injury to Nick Castellanos and find themselves in need of right-handed power.
ETA: 2023
Previous Rank: 17
25. Noah Skirrow, RHP
Age: 7/21/98 (24)
Acquired: Signed as an Undrafted Free Agent with the Phillies in 2020
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’3” 215lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| REA (AA) | 21 | 21 | 5-8 | 98.2 | 4.65 | 9.8 | 0.9 | 7.4% | 26.6% |
| LHV (AAA) | 4 | 4 | 0-1 | 21.0 | 3.00 | 6.0 | 1.3 | 11.0% | 22.0% |
Role: #5 Starting Pitcher/Multi-Inning Middle Reliever
Risk: Medium – Despite the inflated ERA in AA, Skirrow has had success against upper minors batters. His struggles vs opposite handed hitters is a real worry in a rotation, and there has not been an extended look at what the bullpen version looks like.
Summary: A college starter at Liberty, Skirrow joined the Phillies as an undrafted free agent after his junior year for $20,000. He was limited in how much he pitched in 2021, but was one of the organization leaders in innings pitched in 2022. Skirrow has a starter’s build and features a solid fastball that sits 90-95, reaching up to 96. He primarily relies on a pair of breaking balls with a slower curveball in the 75-80 range and a harder slider at 85-89. He has thrown a changeup, but it is more rarely used. He throws a good amount of strikes, but he is not a command artist and can go fishing with the breaking balls as opposed to attacking batters. As you would expect with an arsenal like his, Skirrow has struggled with opposite handed batters, and lefties hit him around. Right now, he is more of a depth starter without an additional weapon against lefties. Given the pair of breaking balls and success against right-handed hitters, he may have better success as a multi inning reliever, especially if his velocity makes some improvements in short stints.
2023 Outlook: Skirrow ended the year in AAA, but depending on who is the 5th starter on the big league roster and what kind of role the Phillies deploy some other high minors pitchers in, there is a chance Skirrow returns to AA briefly. He is Rule 5 eligible after this season, so it would behoove the Phillies to maybe make a bullpen move if they feel comfortable with their starting pitching depth.
ETA: 2024
Previous Rank: UR
26. Marcus Lee Sang, OF
Age: 1/2/01 (22)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 11th Round of the 2019 Draft
B/T: L/L
H/W: 6’0” 200lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| CLW (A-) | 84 | 334 | 8 | 15 | 9.9% | 29.9% | .259 | .339 | .389 |
| JS (A+) | 18 | 79 | 3 | 1 | 6.3% | 26.6% | .254 | .329 | .437 |
Role: Second Division Starter/Platoon Outfielder
Risk: High – Lee Sang still has a lot of development in front of him, but he has major league tools. His weaknesses against left-handed pitching could definitely be hidden in a reserve role, and if he can be a viable emergency center fielder he has a path to playing time on a big league roster.
Summary: The Phillies took two projectable high school bats overslot on Day 3 of the 2019 draft, one they sent to the Angels for Noah Syndergaard (Jadiel Sanchez), the other was Lee Sang. Lee Sang was always going to be a bit of a project, and the missed 2020 season certainly did not help. He has however, made some large strides in his time on the field. He still has too much swing and miss, and struggles against left-handed pitching. Of the hitters to spend a significant amount of time in Clearwater, he led the team in average exit velocity (87.5mph) and 90th percentile exit velocity (104.9mph). Early in the season, much of that contact was on the ground, but he began to elevate more as the season went on. He still will need to lift the ball more to fully tap into his raw power, but it was a good step forward. He is a good runner who has played some center field, but is likely more of a corner bat who can play center than a full time center fielder. He has a strong arm that has translated from throwing in the 90s off the mound in high school. There are still some developmental hurdles as Lee Sang’s contact abilities are still behind where they need to be, but there is a path to contribution with incremental improvement.
2023 Outlook: The Phillies bumped Lee Sang to Jersey Shore late, and he almost certainly dons a BlueClaws jersey to open 2023. Given where he is developmentally, it is likely he spends the majority of the season in A-ball. He is Rule 5 eligible after the season, but unless he has a breakout he won’t be a viable selection, which should allow the Phillies to give him time as opposed to rushing to a decision point.
ETA: 2025
Previous Rank: 42
27. Micah Ottenbreit, RHP
Age: 5/7/03 (19)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 4th Round of the 2021 Draft
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’4” 190lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| CLW (A-) | 2 | 2 | 0-1 | 5.2 | 7.94 | 9.5 | 1.6 | 17.9% | 14.3% |
Role: #3/#4 Starter
Risk: Extreme – This is exactly where Ottenbreit was last year, and now he has an arm injury and a year of missed development, so it is a bit more extreme, extreme. Until we see how he looks back healthy it will be difficult to adjust the outcome projections.
Summary: Micah Ottenbreit looked to be poised for a breakout season. He was a cold weather high school arm showing a mid 90s fastball and high spin curveball in his brief cameo in the FCL in 2021. Things looked off quickly for Ottenbreit in 2022. He showed poor control in his first start, as well as a fastball sitting 90-91 for much of his first two innings before showing some 93 late. His second start was 87 to 89 to open, with his offspeed pitches showing similar velocity drops, a slight spike into the low 90s late was not a point of optimism, as he quickly went onto the IL after the start eventually needing Tommy John surgery. Theoretically, Ottenbreit should be throwing by spring with an expected return by mid to late summer.
Before the injury, Ottenbreit looked like he could be a mid rotation starter with the potential for 3 above average to plus pitches if he filled out his frame. The first thing will be to see if he can come back with his velocity intact or improved, as it will likely be another year before he can necessarily see if he has made the control gains he needs to stay in a rotation.
2023 Outlook: Ottenbreit had surgery early in the season, so it would be expected he would start throwing in Extended Spring Training with a probable return to game action over the summer. His results will matter less than if he can throw healthy and at least achieve where he was before the injury.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: 15
28. Gunner Mayer, RHP
Age: 7/27/00 (22)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 5th Round of the 2019 Draft
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’6” 190lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| FCL (CPX) | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 5.1 | 0.00 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 18.2% | 27.3% |
| CLW (A-) | 14 | 12 | 1-6 | 48.2 | 5.18 | 7.2 | 1.9 | 12.5% | 32.2% |
Role: #4 Starter
Risk: Extreme – Mayer is still a 22 year old pitcher who has yet to get past low-A and has yet to throw a full season of innings. The improvements he made this year do look like they should help him in the long term, he just is further away than you would want.
Summary: The Phillies took Mayer as an 18 year old recent pitching convert out of junior college in 2019. The now 22 year old, tall righty has struggled to stay on the mound and log innings the last two seasons, as an injury cost him most of May and June this season. Statistical success has been fleeting for Mayer as well, as he has struggled to economically work deep into games. If you just looked at fastball velocity, it might look like Mayer is the same pitcher he was in 2021, but if you look at video or pitch tracking data, there are some subtle changes that the Phillies made. Mayer is more over the top with his delivery, and the result has been a straighter and flatter fastball and a more vertical curveball. He also threw his changeup more this season and spent a couple of starts mixing in a slider. Mayer’s fastball still averages right around 92 mph, but he can get up to 96. It is a high spin pitch that plays well up in the zone, but he struggles to locate it consistently. His curveball is a big dropping bender that has been bleeding spin a bit over the years. Mayer’s control issues coupled with strong flyball tendencies have led to high home run rates as well. Overall it was a step forward year for Mayer, but after 4 years in the system, he is still a project and, like many, the missed season has definitely stunted some growth.
2023 Outlook: Now healthy, Mayer should move up to Jersey Shore where it will be important for him to log a full season of innings and show some consistency on the mound. At 22, and many years into his time in the Phillies org, this also is likely the big season to look for him to actually make a jump in stuff and outlook.
ETA: 2025
Previous Rank: 37
29. Jean Cabrera, RHP
Age: 10/21/01 (21)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in July 2019
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’0” 145lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| CLW (A-) | 12 | 12 | 2-4 | 46.1 | 5.24 | 1.6 | 10.5 | 13.1% | 23.9% |
Role: #4 Starter
Risk: Extreme – We learned more about Cabrera this year, but it was not the step forward that might have been expected given the reports from 2021. His stuff is still fairly ordinary, and while it flashes potential, the longer he goes from actualizing it the more doubt there is that it will happen.
Summary: It was always going to be a rough transition going directly from the DSL to full season ball for Cabrera, but it would have been better for it to not have been this rough. He struggled to work deep into games as his control went backwards, he struggled to miss bats, and was fairly hittable. Cabrera’s arsenal was not overwhelming either with his fastball sitting 91 to 95, though with high spin that can miss bats up in the zone. His changeup got hit around, and his two breaking balls had a tendency to blend. While not the youngest player, he is still fairly projectable and this was only his second year of pitching in pro ball. If he can treat the 2022 season as more of a learning and growing experience, he still has the base to be a #4 type starting pitcher with some small chance at more than that. After attempting to accelerate his development in 2022, the Phillies are likely going to need to take things a little slow with Cabrera going forward.
2023 Outlook: Given his struggles in Clearwater, it would not be surprising if Cabrera starts back there to begin. Results are going to matter more in 2023, but it will be important for his secondary pitches to show some growth as well.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: 33
30. Mavis Graves, LHP
Age: 11/20/03 (19)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 6th Round of the 2022 Draft
B/T: L/L
H/W: 6’6” 205lbs
2022 Stats:
Did not pitch in a game in 2022
Role: #3/#4 Starter
Risk: Extreme – The role above might as well read “Starting Pitcher” because we don’t really know what Graves will look like in a few years. He is all projection, and even if he had appeared in an FCL game, it probably would not have told us very much.
Summary: The Phillies took high school pitchers at the top of the 2020 and 2021 draft, but only in that shortened 2020 draft have both Brian Barber and his predecessor Johnny Almaraz refrained from taking an 18 year old arm in the middle of day 2 of the draft. Graves is last year’s entry, a tall (most draft writeups have him at 6’4”, while his current milb page lists him at 6’6”) projectable lefty who did not make it into an FCL game last summer. He supposedly is into the low 90s with a good curveball and has at least thrown a changeup. It is likely to be a few years before we start to really see what the Phillies have in Graves as he fills out and they work on getting his pitches where they want them
2023 Outlook: The Phillies have sent their top HS arms directly to Clearwater, but Graves’ draft pedigree probably falls below that line, so it probably will depend on how he does this spring whether we see him with the Threshers to start, he gets there later in the year, or they wait until the FCL season. Graves is expected to take time, so 2023 will most likely be about seeing positive traits and paths forward.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: N/A
31. Starlyn Castillo, RHP
Age: 2/24/02 (20)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in July 2018
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’0” 210lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| FCL (CPX) | 4 | 3 | 0-1 | 12.1 | 5.68 | 13.5 | 0.0 | 1.7% | 25.0% |
| CLW (A-) | 10 | 8 | 0-7 | 27.0 | 11.67 | 12.7 | 2.3 | 10.2% | 21.2% |
Role: #4 Starter/7th Inning Reliever
Risk: Extreme – Castillo came back from Tommy John surgery looking mostly like the player he was pre-surgery. He does not have a starting pitcher’s arsenal right now, and his fastball is not good enough to be an elite reliever.
Summary: The Phillies made Castillo their big international acquisition in 2018. A physically mature 16 year old, he was already into the mid 90s when the Phillies signed him. Injuries limited Castillo to 9.1 innings in 2019, and then 6 games into his 2021 season he blew out his elbow, needing Tommy John surgery. He made his return in June of 2022, and it was a mostly down season, but he did complete 39.2 healthy innings. The Phillies then pushed him by sending him to the Australian Baseball League where he pitched 10 games with good results. There is a chance he is somewhat innings limited in 2023, but with 77 innings between his two stops, the Phillies managed to recover a mostly lost year of development.
The problem with Castillo is that he is still largely the pitcher he was at 16, now at almost 21. His fastball is 91 to 95, touching 96 and lacks elite characteristics. He still has a high spin breaking ball, which Statcast labels a curveball so we will call it a curve, and it is this pitch that makes him interesting. He did throw more changeups in 2022, and the pitch showed more run (as did his fastball). Ultimately he is a short, right-handed pitcher with an injury history and a good breaking ball, and that reads more as a reliever than a starter. He still has barely over 100 innings in 4 seasons, so it might not be time to make that decision just yet, but that time is getting close.
2023 Outlook: Given his work in the ABL, the Phillies likely will be able to push Castillo to Jersey Shore. He should work out of the rotation all year, and the big things to watch are if he can find the changeup growth needed to be a starting pitcher.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: 36
32. Tommy McCollum, RHP
Age: 6/8/99 (23)
Acquired: Signed as an Undrafted Free Agent with the Phillies in 2021
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’5” 260lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| CLW (A-) | 23 | 0 | 1-0 | 31.0 | 1.45 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 13.6% | 44.1% |
Role: 7th Inning Reliever
Risk: High – How McCollum was throwing right before the injury puts him not far off of where he needs to be. However, it was still a small sample size and we have not seen him put the results up vs high level batters.
Summary: The Phillies have taken big college pitchers in both the draft and non-drafted free agency. McCollum, in his pro debut in 2021 after the Phillies signed him out of Wingate, was not impressive. His fastball averaged around 91, topping out at 94 and primarily throwing sliders and curveballs as his offspeed pitches. In 2022, McCollum was good to start, showing a revamped splitter and scrapping most of the curveballs and sliders in favor of a cutter. Things then ramped from there to the point where he was averaging 95.5 mph on his fastball in June and topping out at 98. Unfortunately, June was also the last month he pitched in as an ankle injury on a comebacker on June 30 ended his season. Prior to the injury, McCollum had been one of the most dominant pitchers in the minors with a 13.1 IP 6 H 2 R 1 ER 1 BB 26 K line over his last 10 appearances.
Without the injury, it is easy to see a scenario where McCollum would have ascended very quickly through the organization and would have ended the year in AA. If McCollum can get back on track now that he is healthy, he should rise quickly and could reach the majors fairly quickly. Unless there is another leap, he doesn’t look like an elite shutdown reliever, but more along the lines of a Connor Brogdon type.
2023 Outlook: The Phillies could jump McCollum up to AA, but it makes some sense that they send him to Jersey Shore to put up some success before pushing him. He could move quickly, but given the Phillies bullpen depth in the majors and minors, it is more likely he ends the year in the upper minors poised for a 2024 contribution.
ETA: 2024
Previous Rank: UR
33. Caleb Ricketts, C
Age: 5/10/00 (22)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 7th Round of the 2022 Draft
B/T: L/R
H/W: 6’4” 225lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| CLW (A-) | 22 | 94 | 3 | 0 | 11.7% | 31.9% | .259 | .362 | .370 |
Role: Offense First Backup Catcher
Risk: High – The big question is whether Ricketts can catch, and if he can, the pressure on his bat to perform is much much lower. If he can’t, the level he would need to reach as a corner outfielder might be impossible.
Summary: The Phillies drafted some guys with big college numbers in 2022, and none may have had bigger numbers than Caleb Ricketts. As a catcher and outfielder for San Diego he hit .373/.423/.658 with 16 home runs in 56 games. It was an enormous outburst for the 4th year junior who had 2 home runs in his 3 previous seasons. He didn’t strike out much, but he didn’t walk much. The strikeouts did get concerningly high in Clearwater, but the walks came up as well. It also was only 22 games after a long college season. He did not hit for much power with the Threshers either, as he posted an average launch angle of just 2 degrees, but that did mean he hit a large number of hard line drives to the pull side. It is likely that line drive hitter is more of the hitter Ricketts is, than the power hitter he was last year in college. He played outfield in college and is a work in progress behind the plate. If he can be an average defender, his bat could be good enough to be offensive oriented second catcher. Unless the power suddenly comes roaring back, it is hard to see him having a future at any position other than catcher.
2023 Outlook: The Phillies will likely send Ricketts to Jersey Shore where he should get a good amount of at bats behind the plate. It would be in the Phillies best interest to give him all of the chances they can to develop behind the plate.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: N/A
34. McKinley Moore, RHP
Age: 8/24/98 (24)
Acquired: Traded to the Phillies by the White Sox for Adam Haseley on March 29, 2022
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’6” 225lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| REA (AA) | 39 | 1 | 4-5 | 49.2 | 4.35 | 9.1 | 0.5 | 11.5% | 31.3% |
Role: 6th/7th Inning Reliever
Risk: High – Moore, despite good stuff, struggled against AA batters. He will need to throw better strikes, and if he does he can be the 5th or 6th best arm in a bullpen. If he doesn’t, he might end up being an up and down reliever that you always want a bit more from before you send him back up the Northeast Extension.
Summary: The Phillies did not get a chance to really look at Moore after acquiring him, before shipping him off to Reading. The rapid change of scenery didn’t seem to do him well either, as he walked 10 in his 9.2 April innings. After that he still walked a bit too many, 16 in 40 innings, but he offset that slightly with 63 strikeouts. Backing up a bit, Moore is a prototypical Phillies draft acquisition as a big college arm who could not throw strikes in college, they just got him later in his career. Moore’s fastball sits in the upper 90s, hitting 99 in most appearances (according to a Baseball America interview with pitching coach Matt Hockenberry he has been up to 101). His primary secondary pitch is a slider that sits 86-89 and will touch the low 90s with good sweep. He also will mix in a hard changeup as well. The control is still not great, but his velocity and slider give him a chance to be a prototype modern middle reliever with two plus pitches and not enough polish to trust late in games.
2023 Outlook: Given that the Phillies have devoted a large portion of their 40 man roster to relievers who can help the team in 2023, there may not be that much room in the Lehigh Valley bullpen. Moore will be in big league camp, so they think he may be a player that can help them sooner. Given that he will be Rule 5 eligible again after this season, he could definitely pass one of the waiver or low level trade arms, and force himself into that up and down 8th RP this season.
ETA: 2023
Previous Rank: N/A
35. Eiberson Castellano, RHP
Age: 5/9/01 (21)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in July 2018
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’3” 160lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| CLW (A-) | 17 | 8 | 1-3 | 51.1 | 3.51 | 6.5 | 0.7 | 8.7% | 29.5% |
Role: #4/5 Starter/Multi-Inning Reliever
Risk: Extreme – Castellano is almost 22 and has barely pitched, and has never handled a starting pitcher’s full workload. He does not have the high end stuff to make it low risk that he will hold up against upper level hitters.
Summary: The Phillies signed Castellano in 2018, but he didn’t pitch in his first pro season, meaning that he didn’t throw his first pitch for the org until over three years after he signed. As a 20 year old reliever in the DSL, Castellano was dominant, albeit with too many walks. The Phillies sent him straight to the Threshers in 2022 after a brief stop in Extended Spring Training. He worked from long man into starting for most of the summer, until they eased him back into the bullpen. What he showed was three different low 90s fastballs, a changeup, a couple of sliders, and a solid spin curveball with plenty of depth. He put up good numbers for most of the summer, throwing strikes and generating a large amount of weak contact. Eiberson will be entering his age 22 season, but he has the frame to maybe add a bit more strength. Given his usage over the summer it is interesting to see if the Phillies think he is a starter, but they should give him some innings to open the year to see if he can build into a back end arm.
2023 Outlook: Given his age, the Phillies should push Castellano to Jersey Shore. They do have a number of arms headed that way so he might have to start in Clearwater and move up when space opens up, or pitch in longer relief to still get innings.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: UR
36. Andrew Schultz, RHP
Age: 7/31/97 (25)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 6th Round of the 2019 Draft
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’4” 195lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| JS (A+) | 31 | 0 | 0-3 | 30.0 | 4.80 | 6.9 | 0.9 | 14.6% | 35.0% |
| REA (AA) | 14 | 0 | 0-0 | 14.2 | 2.45 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 19.2% | 19.2% |
Role: 6th/7th Inning Reliever that frustrates with their flashes
Risk: High – Schultz has a history of injuries and not throwing strikes, and while he had a stretch of strike throwing in 2022, his delivery does not inspire confidence that his health or strike throwing will hold up.
Summary: The Phillies drafted Schultz as one of the hardest throwing relievers in the 2019 draft. During the missed 2020 season, he suffered an injury that led to Tommy John surgery that cost him the 2021 season. Unsurprisingly, he started off slow before then finding his stride in the late spring and early summer, before then struggling again in his time in AA. Schultz still has an ultra short throwing motion, from which he was sitting 97-99, touch 100 late in the season and matching that with a short hard slider in low 90s. Control continues to be a problem for Schultz, and he just loses the zone for periods at a time. Given his long history of not consistently throwing strikes, it is unlikely he ever has better than below average control. He also had issues with left-handed batters who do get a good look at the ball out of his hand. All of that means that the ceiling for Schultz is probably not an elite high leverage arm, and is more a 6th/7th inning arm that can look dominant at times, but ultimately is too unreliable for late innings.
2023 Outlook: Schultz got just a taste of AA, so a return to Reading is in the cards. There is a lot of reliever depth in front of him, so he will need to stand out or be buried by the continued waves of arms.
ETA: 2024
Previous Rank: 34
37. Alex Rao, RHP
Age: 10/25/99 (23)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 8th Round of the 2022 Draft
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’4” 230lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| FCL (CPX) | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 1.0 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| CLW (A-) | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 2.0 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 16.7% |
Role: 6th/7th Inning Reliever
Risk: High – Rao struggled to throw strikes in college and has only 3 innings of pro-ball to go off of, so there is just very little track record.
Summary: The Phillies have not shied away from using top 10 round picks on college relievers, and Rao is exactly their model of pitcher. He is a big and tall pitcher with a big spin fastball that sits 94-96 (reportedly up to 98 in college). He throws a slider, but his plus splitter is his best secondary pitch. Rao had some control problems in college that he will need to correct, but otherwise he is the prototypical plus fastball, plus secondary middle reliever. Given that he is 23 and from a major school, it is likely the Phillies will aggressively push Rao to Jersey Shore like they did with Jason Ruffcorn last year.
2023 Outlook: Rao likely starts in the Threshers bullpen, and if he can throw strikes, he should move quickly into the upper minors.
ETA: 2025
Previous Rank: N/A
38. Yemal Flores, OF
Age: 11/22/03 (19)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in January 2021
B/T: R/R
H/W: 5’11” 206lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| FCL (CPX) | 34 | 116 | 3 | 3 | 10.3% | 39.7% | .160 | .259 | .290 |
Role: Second Division Starting Outfielder
Risk: Extreme – Flores might not make enough contact to make it past A-ball. While his defensive profile has improved, it won’t carry him, so his bat will need to.
Summary: When the Phillies signed Flores as one of their two big signings in January 2021 there were massive worries about his contact abilities. If hitting .171 with a 35.7% strikeout rate in 2021 in the DSL made that more troubling, following it up by hitting .160 with a 39.7% K% in the FCL in 2022 certainly didn’t make it better. Flores still has huge raw power, and when he gets a hold of one it can go far. He also looks like a good defender, playing a solid centerfield with a good arm. He also does not have the worst approach at the plate as you can see him not just hacking away at the plate. It is a vicious hack however, and his pitch recognition does not appear to be advanced right now. He looks better than the stats, but it would be difficult to look worse than the stats. He just turned 19 in November, so he is not a lost cause yet, but he will certainly be a project for the player development staff.
2023 Outlook: The Phillies should have a full complement of outfielders in Clearwater, so Flores may start in Extended Spring Training while the player dev staff gets a chance to work with him, before then joining the Threshers later in the season.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: 41
39. Yhoswar Garcia, OF
Age: 9/13/01 (21)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in March 2020
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’0” 150lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| FCL (CPX) | 2 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 14.3% | 14.3% | .333 | .429 | .333 |
| CLW (A-) | 35 | 146 | 1 | 29 | 9.6% | 24.0% | .206 | .303 | .310 |
Role: Glove First Center Fielder who bats 8th/9th
Risk: Extreme – Garcia has the tools and the frame, and has barely played any games in 2 years since signing. He doesn’t have the polish on defense yet, despite the “Drone” nickname, but he has the tools to be a very very good defender. It likely does not pan out for him, but he has some upside if it does.
Summary: The Phillies gave Garcia $2.5 million as the pandemic started to shut things down. His signing being delayed by 9 months due to an age discrepancy was sort of a harbinger of bad things to come. A missed 2020 season due to the minor league COVID shutdown and then two years of injuries means Garcia is now 21 and has played in 55 total games since signing. The speed is still intact as he ran wild last year and stole 3 bases in his two games before his season ended. Garcia has the tools to be an impact defender in center field, but is still more speed than route based out there. At the plate, things were better but still weren’t great. He struck out less and walked more, but he did not impact the ball, posting one of the lowest average exit velocities on the Threshers team, and sat towards the back of the middle in 90th and 80th percentile exit velocities. He hits a lot of balls on the ground, and at the lower levels those will turn into hits, but those will dry up some in the upper minors.
Garcia still has good athleticism and a good frame that could fill out enough to give him impact at the plate. It is also easy to see a path where he is an impact defender in center field. Those two things could make him a real prospect. He has just missed so much time and did not start as a polished prospect to begin with. He has enough intrigue he might not need to do the make side of a make or break season, but he has to not break. If he can go out and play 80-100 games and look like it belongs, it probably buys him another year of at bats.
2023 Outlook: Based on how much he has played, Garcia should start in Clearwater. But, if he has a good spring, we could see the Phillies push him aggressively to get him back on a more reasonable dev timeline.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: 18
40. Jamari Baylor, SS
Age: 8/25/00 (22)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 3rd Round of the 2019 Draft
B/T: R/R
H/W: 5’11” 190lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| CLW (A-) | 89 | 306 | 6 | 22 | 17.0% | 32.7% | .178 | .353 | .315 |
Role: Multi-position Infield Bench Bat
Risk: Extreme – Baylor striking out at a high rate and moving down the defensive spectrum is a bad combination. There are interesting underlying tools, so Baylor cannot fully be buried, but the problems are bad.
Summary: The Phillies drafted Baylor as a raw high school hitter with a real ability to generate bat speed. He was hurt by the missed 2020 season, and looked good for 25 games in the FCL in 2021, followed by 15 disaster games in A-ball. His season line for the 2022 season looks like more of the disaster trend. He spent the first 3 months of the season hitting .112/.312/.224 with a 16.2% BB% and 34.0% K%. However, he spent the last 4 months hitting .262/.406/.430 with a 18.0% BB% and still ugly 30.8% K%. He also hit the ball hard all year, and he gets the ball in the air with line drives and fly balls, and does it to both fields. Baylor has a solid approach at the plate and he seemingly swings at the right location of pitches. However, when you see him swing the problems become evident, as he seemingly unleashes at full bore on each hack. This leaves him no room to adjust his swing mid flight if he has not pigeon holed the ball exactly. They are going to need to work with him on calming the swing down, particularly with two strikes.
The other concerning thing is that the rumors were that Baylor was looking better at shortstop, but after a bad performance there he did not play it after early May, moving to second as his primary position with a lot more first base than you want from a middle infield prospect (Clearwater did have a lot of middle infielders). If Baylor slides down the defensive spectrum too much it crushes what little hope he has of pulling this out.
2023 Outlook: Given his age, and his having spent the last two seasons in Clearwater the Phillies likely will need to move Baylor to Jersey Shore. He doesn’t need to get the strikeout rate under 20%, but under 30% would be a good start, especially if it came with a more in control swing at the plate.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: 19
The further you go down the list, the wider the groups of players get. This first group of players it would be easy to argue is artificial, it might belong as part of the one above or those off the list. There was just enough difference to not include the just missed, but I won’t argue if you think Kendall Simmons, Casey Martin, Cristian Hernandez, and others should be right here.
41. James McArthur, RHP
Age: 12/11/96 (26)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 12th Round of the 2018 Draft
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’7” 230
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| REA( AA) | 13 | 13 | 2-6 | 57.0 | 5.05 | 10.4 | 1.6 | 10.0% | 25.0% |
Role: Middle Reliever
Risk: Medium – McArthur has skills that should play well out of the bullpen when/if the Phillies move him into the role. He is coming off an injury that cut his season short, but the Phillies thought enough of him to keep him on the 40 man roster.
Summary: McArthur flashed enough stuff in 2021 to force the Phillies put him on the 40 man roster and keep him in the rotation. The result was a lot more strikeouts, but a season ending injury in late June and some stats that were not great. McArthur is a big righty with a mid 90s fastball and a pair of breaking balls. The lack of a changeup or equivalent pitch has made him very vulnerable to left handed batters, and McArthur posted a 14.8% BB% and 20.3% K% vs them last year as opposed to his 5.3% and 29.5% marks against righties. Given his arsenal and platoon splits, McArthur has long looked like a reliever, but the Phillies have yet to make that move. Unless the move to shorter outings allows his stuff to tick up greatly, he doesn’t have high leverage upside, but he has a decent chance at the plus fastball, plus offspeed middle reliever ceiling, with possibly a bit more with the second breaking ball involved.
2023 Outlook: The Phillies have not said publicly whether McArthur will start or relieve, but given their rotation depth they should move him to the bullpen. Either way, he likely starts in AA as the Phillies figure out who can contribute to the team early. If he moves to the bullpen, he could make it to AAA fairly quickly.
ETA: 2023
Previous Rank: 21
42. Alexeis Azuaje, 2B
Age: 4/24/02 (20)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in July 2018
B/T: R/R
H/W: 5’10” 155lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| FCL (CPX) | 5 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 29.4% | .176 | .176 | .235 |
| CLW (A-) | 38 | 154 | 1 | 15 | 3.9% | 27.9% | .285 | .355 | .380 |
Role: Second Division Second Baseman
Risk: Extreme – The approach might not get Azuaje out of A-ball. He does some things on the field well, but he is going to need to take a step forward at the plate.
Summary: It looks like 2021 was the year where Azuaje was starting a breakout, but 2022 was a rude return to reality. The second baseman posted a .355 on base percentage, but that was buoyed by 9 hit by pitches to just 6 walks. His 3.9% BB% and 27.9% K% in Clearwater set off alarm bells, as does a continued injury history that saw him play only 43 games. Azuaje is no longer moving all over the diamond and has settled in at second base, and while the shift rules should shift some of the offense-defense balance there, it has become a position with a high offensive bar. Azuaje posted good high end exit velocities with a 90th percentile of 101.9 putting him among the team’s leaders. However, his average exit velocity of 81.2 put him among the lowest on the team, hinting that while he was capable of scalding the ball he struggled to consistently get to that power. Azuaje won’t turn 21 until the end of April, but he is starting to make a real trend out of some fatal flaws of batting. If he can find a better approach and consistency at the plate, there might be starting upside for Azuaje.
2023 Outlook: The Phillies have a jumble of infielders between Jersey Shore and Clearwater, and a good spring could see Azuaje carve out his share of at bats in Hi-A, but if he struggles it may be hard to break in. It is sort of a make or break year for Azuaje as he will need to show improvement at the plate.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: 20
43. Michael Plassmeyer, LHP
Age: 11/5/96 (26)
Acquired: Traded to the Phillies by the Giants for C Austin Wynns on June 8, 2022
B/T: L/L
H/W: 6’2” 197lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| SAC (AAA) | 11 | 10 | 2-6 | 46.1 | 7.38 | 9.7 | 2.9 | 11.3% | 22.2% |
| LHV (AAA) | 16 | 16 | 6-3 | 82.0 | 2.41 | 6.9 | 1.3 | 7.0% | 24.8% |
| PHI (MLB) | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 7.1 | 3.68 | 11.1 | 1.2 | 3.4% | 24.1% |
Role: Up and Down Depth Starting Pitcher
Risk: Low – Plassmeyer is what he is and has already appeared in the majors for the Phillies in the role he projects to be in.
Summary: Plassmeyer has bounced around to four different orgs since being drafted in the 4th round of the 2018 draft by Seattle. He had a disaster start the 2022 season in the Giants organization before being traded to the Phillies. He was much better with the Phillies, returning to more of the player he had been in the past. Plassmeyer is a soft tossing lefty with good control and a three pitch mix to keep hitters off balance. The Phillies called him up late in the year to give them innings and he didn’t look terrible. Plassmeyer does not have any projection remaining, but is a depth starter for a major league team right now, and that has value.
2023 Outlook: Plassmeyer should be a mainstay of the IronPigs rotation and could get major league chances on double headers if there are injuries, or if the Phillies just need emergency bullpen depth.
ETA: 2022
Previous Rank: N/A
44. Jordi Martinez, LHP
Age: 7/18/00 (22)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in January 2018
B/T: L/L
H/W: 6’2” 185lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| CLW (A-) | 17 | 15 | 3-6 | 72.0 | 4.25 | 9.9 | 0.8 | 7.5% | 20.8% |
| JS (A+) | 2 | 2 | 0-1 | 6.2 | 4.05 | 12.2 | 0.0 | 3.2% | 22.6% |
Role: Back End Starter/Middle Reliever
Risk: High – Martinez pitched 78.2 ok innings in 2022 as a starter at two A-ball stops. His profile is still reliant either on some offspeed projection in a rotation or some better results in short stints out of a bullpen.
Summary: Martinez was a trendy sleeper going into the pandemic missed season, and then had an injury 10 games into 2021 that had him fall off prospect maps. Martinez ended up pitching most of the 2022 season and, despite a just ok ERA, showed a lot of promising signs. Martinez’s velocity was back up to where it was prior to the injury, averaging 93 mph in Clearwater and peaking at 97. He throws two distinct fastballs and backs them up with a solid changeup and slider. Martinez can be a bit too hittable at times, but he throws a good amount of strikes and for the most part suppresses hard contact by keeping the ball out of the air.
He is still young enough that the Phillies can give him the 2023 season as a starter in Jersey Shore, but his velocity from the left side gives him intriguing reliever fall back.
2023 Outlook: Martinez ended 2022 in the BlueClaws rotation, and there is no reason to think that isn’t his first stop in 2023.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: 38
45. Eduar Segovia, RHP
Age: 1/10/01 (22)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in May 2018
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’0” 180lbs
2022 Stats:
Did Not Pitch in 2022
Role: 6th/7th Inning Reliever
Risk: High – There is a very straightforward projection of Segovia’s stuff as a reliever, but that was before the injury. He will need to show that the stuff is intact and that he can throw strikes at a reasonable rate.
Summary: Segovia was trending as a good pitching prospect before a shoulder injury in his last start of 2021 cost him the 2022 season. Segovia is an undersized righty, which has long had people projecting his future as in the bullpen. The base of Segovia’s profile is a sinking fastball that sits 92-95, topping out at 97, and plus low-80s slider with heavy vertical break. During the 2021 season he started to work in a splitter to give him a third pitch. Control has been a problem for Segovia at each level, and he was homer prone in 2021 as well.
Everything says that Segovia should be a reliever going forward, but given the missed time it would not be surprising if the Phillies had him start for some of the season in order to build innings and get work in. Segovia was throwing rehab innings at the end of last season, so he should be pitching by early in the 2023 season. The big question given the seriousness of shoulder injuries, is what Segovia’s stuff and durability look like now.
2023 Outlook: Segovia has been throwing, so it is reasonable to think he should break camp with a full season team. It would not be surprising to see him in Jersey Shore to start, or at least shortly into the season. Coming off the injury, the Phillies are likely to manage his innings for the season.
ETA: 2026
Previous Rank: 32
46. Bryan Rincon, SS
Age: 2/8/04 (18)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 14th Round of the 2022 Draft
B/T: S/R
H/W: 5’11” 185lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| FCL (CPX) | 12 | 42 | 2 | 4 | 14.3% | 16.7% | .176 | .317 | .412 |
Role: Second Division Shortstop
Risk: Extreme – There is not a lot of track record for Rincon and there is a long way to go between him and any major league role.
Summary: Rincon moved to the Pittsburgh area from Venezuela while in high school. The Phillies drafted the switch hitting shortstop in the 14th round and signed him for the full $125,000 bonus. He is a good defender at shortstop and a good runner. He has surprisingly decent power, and did not embarrass himself at the plate in his 12 games in the FCL. He is still more of a project than a prospect, but the glove gives a decent floor and base to build on.
2023 Outlook: There is an opportunity given the Phillies depth chart for Rincon to seize the Clearwater shortstop job, or at least a good amount of middle infield playing time. It is probably going to be more of a slow burn for Rincon, and so it would not be surprising to see him struggle at times.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: N/A
47. Baron Radcliff, OF
Age: 2/9/99 (23)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 5th Round of the 2020 Draft
B/T: L/R
H/W: 6’4” 228lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| JS (A+) | 104 | 408 | 17 | 6 | 14.7% | 40.0% | .237 | .350 | .439 |
Role: Platoon Power-first 4th Outfielder
Risk: High – Radcliff has demonstrated he can hit baseballs very, very hard, but he has yet to demonstrate that he can hit the ball consistently.
Summary: College players who strike out 40% of the time in A-ball in their second full season do not normally rate as notable prospects because their chances of hitting are extraordinarily low. Radcliff’s chances of hitting are extraordinarily low, but he has enough power to make that tiny percentage chance actually have a meaningful outcome. Radcliff spent the first 4 months of the season not making contact and not making hard contact, hitting just 8 home runs in that span. He exploded in August, hitting 8 home runs in 23 games, before then cooling off in September. Like many power hitters, he had large home/road splits with Jersey Shore still playing as an extreme pitchers park. Radcliff does have a good approach and pitch recognition, and has continued to get on base at a good clip, despite the struggles. If there is a place for optimism it is that Radcliff got the ball in the air at a much higher rate in 2022, and he is going to need to continue to trend in that extreme to maximize his contact when he makes it.
The model for Radcliff is Darick Hall, who also shares Radcliff’s inability to hit left-handed pitchers. If he can hang around the organization and make just enough contact, then there is a slight chance that there is a platoon power bat future for Radcliff, despite the stats indicating that he doesn’t really have a chance.
2023 Outlook: Radcliff will get a blessing and a curse in Reading. The park should allow him to put up big power numbers, but how he faces advanced pitching could make or break his career.
ETA: 2025
Previous Rank: UR
48. Matt Russell, RHP
Age: 3/28/99 (23)
Acquired: Signed as an Undrafted Free Agent with the Phillies in 2021
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’2” 190 lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
| JS (A+) | 18 | 16 | 5-9 | 81.2 | 4.74 | 10.9 | 0.6 | 9.3% | 18.3% |
Role: Back End Starter/Middle Reliever
Risk: High – Russell isn’t a polished arm with a track record of success, and he struggled in A-ball. He also is very close to the borderline where his relief ceiling is more up and down arm than major league staple.
Summary: A year ago, Matt Russell looked like a steal of an undrafted free agent. He struck out a bunch of batters in his Clearwater cameo while showing good velocity and pitch characteristics. He was much more ordinary with Jersey Shore, failing to miss bats, walking too many batters, and overall looking too hittable. He also seemed to tire as the year went on and he was working a more typical starting pitcher’s workload. Russell still works 92-95 with his fastball with a bevy of secondary pitches, giving him a back end starter’s set of pitches. The Phillies are still short enough on starting pitching depth that they might give him another year in the rotation, but he is trending heavily towards the bullpen, but not with enough stuff to profile as an impact arm.
2023 Outlook: Russell either starts in Reading or moves up after the big arms are promoted. He will need to show better results either as a starter or make a successful bullpen transition.
ETA: 2025
Previous Rank: 44
49. Aroon Escobar, 3B
Age: 1/1/05 (18)
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent by the Phillies in January 2022
B/T: R/R
H/W: 5’11” 180lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| DSL (CPX) | 48 | 186 | 3 | 11 | 12.9% | 14.0% | .238 | .389 | .343 |
Role: Average Regular
Risk: Extreme – Escobar has intriguing enough tools to dream on, but he isn’t a big standout. His potential outcome spread is immense with much of the outcomes being that he falls well short of projection, but that is also the case with the majority of 18 year olds.
Summary: Escobar was one of the 6 figure signings by the Phillies in January 2022 that was drawing some amount of buzz on signing day. He drove the ball early in the season, including a massive home run that did the rounds on social media. His power tailed off in July and August, but it was good to see that his walk and strikeout numbers stayed relatively stable. Escobar is already pretty solidly built for an 18 year old, and while he played all over the infield in 2022, his final position is likely his listed position of third base. He generates great bat speed which leads to good raw power. Escobar is more of an interesting collection of tools than a fully formed prospect at this point, but it is a good start.
2023 Outlook: The Phillies brought Escobar stateside for their spring high performance camp, which portends that he is slated for Extended Spring Training and then the Florida Coast League. Keeping his head above water will probably be the mark of a good season.
ETA: 2027
Previous Rank: N/A
50. Matt Kroon, OF
Age: 12/5/96 (26)
Acquired: Drafted by the Phillies in the 18th Round of the 2018 Draft
B/T: R/R
H/W: 6’1” 195lbs
2022 Stats:
| Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| REA (AA) | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.7% | 50.0% | .000 | .167 | .000 |
Role: Infield/Outfield Bench Bat
Risk: High – Kroon had a short track record of success entering 2022, and then functionally missed the full year. There is not a big skill gap from him to Dalton Guthrie, much higher on this list, but there is a big certainty gap.
Summary: When the pandemic canceled the 2020 season, a bunch of players went away and came back looking like different players. Kroon went from a 4 corners org bat who was struggling in A ball to a legitimate center fielder who could play all 3 outfield positions, plus still be able to handle first and third. He then mashed at AA to end the year, after an injury caused him to get off to a slow start. He entered 2022 as a top priority to watch and see if 2021 was a fluke, and he looked great in Spring Training, hitting some home runs in big league camp and looking like a capable outfielder. Unfortunately 2 games into the AA season he suffered an ankle injury that cost him the rest of the season.
Kroon likely lacks the impact to be an everyday regular, but you don’t need to squint to at least another Dalton Guthrie path (and Kroon and Guthrie were in similar situations entering 2022) where Kroon can reach the 40 man roster and be a MLB bench option at some point. He should be healthy to open the season, and if he can be the guy he looked to be to open 2022, then he could be on a fast track to AAA and right on the cusp of the majors.
2023 Outlook: Kroon will likely return to Reading to open the year, but it is not hard to see him in AAA by the middle of the summer as the Phillies hold onto less of their org depth. The big thing will be whether he can come back healthy and get back on track.
ETA: 2023
Previous Rank: UR
25 and Under
Not all young players are prospects, and so looking just at prospect lists is not the holistic look at the young talent in an organization. The arbitrary cut off that is often used is players 25 and younger in the organization. The Phillies have 4 such players in their org who are noteworthy and making major league contributions, and including them tells a fuller story of where the organization is health wise.
- Andrew Painter, RHP
- Bryson Stott, SS
The Phillies pushed Stott quickly into a bad situation to open the year, playing 3B in a sort of platoon with Alec Bohm. Ultimately, it was his bat that was not ready for the majors and he was sent down to AAA. In AAA, and after his return to the majors, he made some changes to his approach and swing to clean up some of his weaknesses.
Stott has not fundamentally changed from where he was a year ago, but he has proved he belongs in the majors. He has a great feel for the game that really comes out strongly in two areas, his approach at the plate and baserunning. At the plate, Stott does not have premium bat speed and it leaves him vulnerable to high velocity, particularly up and out of the strike zone. Part of his improvement was shortening up his leg kick at the plate, to more of a 2 strike approach, to better get to these pitches, but really what it has meant is he is better able to lay off pitches out of the zone and foul off close pitches. At times in the past, Stott’s swing looked a bit stiff, but he has shown a great ability to get the bat on the ball, which has allowed him to really battle at the plate. The change in approach has reduced his power output a bit, but he should still be a mid-teens home run hitter. Defensively, Stott showed he can stand at shortstop, but his range and arm were below average, even if he was mostly fundamentally consistent. He will be moving to second base in the long term, and he showed he will be at least a plus defender there. Stott will likely never be an impact regular, but he maximizes what he has, picking up value in everything he does. His likely ceiling is 3-4 WAR a year player who is a solid part of a team with postseason aspirations.
- Mick Abel, RHP
- Brandon Marsh, OF
The Phillies sent out Logan O’Hoppe for Marsh with the goal of rehabilitating the former top prospect’s value. Marsh’s defensive metrics in center have not been favorable (though they are outstanding in LF), but he looks the part of a plus defensive center fielder, and a move there full time should help in the long term. The Phillies are looking to improve Marsh’s contact, as right now he has too much swing and miss against righties and has been mostly unplayable vs lefties. Much of this was due to expanding the zone too much. When he does hit the ball, he does a good job at turning it into hits thanks to a high line drive rate. Unless the Phillies can totally reinvent him, he profiles as a good defensive center fielder who hits in the bottom third of a good lineup and puts up above average regular value. If the Phillies can close some of his weaknesses, he can be a fringe All-Star caliber starting center fielder due to his defense and above average tools across the board.
- Griff McGarry, RHP
- Hao-Yu Lee, 2B
- Justin Crawford, OF
- Johan Rojas, OF
- Bailey Falter, LHP
Bailey Falter’s first trip through the rotation in 2021 flashed some promise, but he did not look like a future major league starter. In 2022 he added a slider, and the Phillies altered his pitch mix between his fastballs. He still lacks a putaway pitch, and he does worse against teams that have seen him multiple times. In the postseason he was definitely exposed against a good lineup. There are probably a few more improvements for Falter to make, but he is unlikely to ever be a pitcher that a team trusts to make a postseason start. He does, however, profile as a solid 5 and possibly low end 4, making him a valuable regular season contributor to a team given how many starting pitchers a team needs over the course of the year. The Phillies may break camp with him holding a spot for Painter in the rotation, but if he doesn’t start in the rotation he could go to the bullpen as a long man and spot starter. Falter should have solid value to a major league team for a good number of years.
- William Bergolla, SS
- Simon Muzziotti, OF
- Alex McFarlane, RHP
- Andrew Baker, RHP
- Carlos De La Cruz, OF
- Rafael Marchan, C
During the 2020 season, the Phillies jumped Rafael Marchan all the way to the majors when they suffered injuries. He once again saw time in 2021 when the Phillies needed a backup catcher. In 2022, Garrett Stubbs and J.T. Realmuto stayed healthy all year, so Marchan only was on the roster for the two games Stubbs started in Toronto while J.T. stayed stateside. This lack of visibility coupled with the rise of Logan O’Hoppe caused Marchan to fade from view. It also didn’t help that Marchan missed the first 2 months of the season due to a hamstring strain. Marchan, now almost 24, has added strength over the years, but still has poor game power. He also was able to correct the ground ball tendencies added by the previous regime, returning more to the 40% rate he had at previous levels. Marchan is still elite at getting bat on ball, but he is not going to have much impact until he gets more out of those balls in play. He is still a good defender behind the plate, and altogether it makes him a solid backup catcher in the long term.
More Notes
Not every player in the system is a prospect, and not every prospect made the top 50 prospects. Here are some minor leaguers with interesting backgrounds, major league tools, or previous pedigree. This list is not exhaustive, so I apologize if someone is missing.
Just Signed International Players
- Starlyn Caba, SS – The pre-signing reports would put Caba into the top 10-15 prospects in the organization. He should stay at shortstop and has shown good feel for contact, but power is a question. If he has a good summer in the DSL, he will be a top 10 prospect in the system.
- Wen-Hui Pan, RHP – Pan is about the age of a college sophomore and looks to have a good fastball, a starter’s arsenal, and control issues. This puts him in a similar position to a Christian McGowan and Orion Kerkering group of prospects.
Relievers and Depth Starters
- Cristian Hernandez, RHP – Hernandez was trending as a back end starter to end 2021, but he struggled in the rotation and moved to the bullpen. His velocity is more in the high end of his range (93-95), and he has an assortment of pitches from his starting time. He does not have overwhelming stuff for a reliever, but good control and his collection of average-ish pitches give him a chance to be an up and down arm.
- Brett Schulze, RHP – Schulze missed 2021 due to Tommy John surgery and didn’t pitch in a game until July. He sits mid 90s with a pair of breaking balls and fringe average control as he works back from missed time.
- Erubiel Armenta, LHP – Armenta’s control took a step back in 2022, but he still features a mid-90s fastball with good characteristics and a plus changeup. He has middle relief upside if he can throw more strikes.
- Rafael Marcano, LHP – Marcano has been limited by injuries the last two years, but made it to Jersey Shore as a starter. His velocity has decreased some, but he has missed bats at multiple levels. He is trending as a minor league depth starter, but maybe a move to the bullpen could pull out a bit more.
- Billy Sullivan, RHP – Sullivan is a hard throwing, max effort reliever. His velocity was down a bit (more 94-96) in 2022, and his control was poor for much of the year. He is not far off of an up and down middle reliever outcome with a few adjustments.
- Daniel Harper, RHP – Harper was the Phillies 17th round pick in 2022 and a prototype Phillies reliever pick. In his brief debut his fastball was around 95 with big spin (>2600 RPM), and he throws a high spin hard cutter and slider as well.
- Rodolfo Sanchez, RHP – Sanchez moved to the bullpen full time in 2022. He is a short right-handed pitcher sitting 93-95, T96. He mostly used his mid 80s slider, and largely scrapped his changeup. His control was not always sharp.
- Nicoly Pina, RHP – Pina missed 2022 due to Tommy John surgery and came back over the summer. His fastball sits 94-95, but he can get it up to 97. The pitch has good characteristics, and he has added a splitter and will still show a plus slider. His control is well below average.
- Dominic Pipkin, RHP – Pipkin still has good velocity, but poor secondary pitches and command continue to cause poor results. The Phillies started the year with him in the bullpen, and he struggled greatly. They moved him back to the rotation, and he was moderately better.
- Taylor Lehman, LHP – Lehman is another returnee from Tommy John. He is a big lefty with a fastball that sits 90-94, but he can get it up to 96. He has a pair of good breaking balls. He struggled with command in the AFL, but threw a good amount of strikes before that.
- Blake Brown, RHP – Brown is a short, hard throwing righty with questionable command. He missed all of 2022 to injury.
- Josh Hendrickson, LHP – Hendrickson came back from Tommy John surgery throwing slightly harder (meaning he was just scraping 90), but he is a command control lefty starter.
- Ethan Lindow, LHP – The Phillies used Lindow as a long man with Jersey Shore before sending him to Reading. He still throws in the upper 80s, and that caught up with him in AA. He has good control and offspeed pitches, but he needs to find another 2- 3 mph in order to be a viable major league prospect, and at 24 that is probably not coming.
- Han Crouse, RHP – Crouse stumbled in 2021 and then showed up in 2022 with greatly reduced velocity and eventually missed the year to injury after being shelled. He doesn’t have the fastball or offspeed pitches to relieve, and he doesn’t have the control and arsenal to start. He will need to make a big jump somewhere to get back on the map.
- Chase Antle, RHP – A velocity spike in 2020 led the Phillies to sign Antle as an NDFA that year. Various injuries have cost him the last two seasons.
- Josh Bortka, RHP – Bortka was the Phillies 16th round pick after showing good stuff in the Draft League. He is a big RHP with big spin on his fastball, slider, and curveball, with the fastball sitting about 93 in his pro debut.
- Keylan Killgore, LHP – Killgore is coming off of Tommy John surgery and features a 3 pitch mix out of the bullpen with a low-90s fastball, a changeup, and a slider.
- Mason Ronan, LHP – Ronan is one of a group of Draft League draftees/signings in 2022. He has some control problems, but he has a fastball that sits 91-94, a low 80s slider that features spin rates around 2600-2700 RPM, and a split changeup.
- Andrew Walling, LHP – Walling is another nondrafted free agent reliever. In his pro debut, his fastball was up to 96 but sat about 93. He threw a single curveball, but primarily used a slider as his secondary pitch. He does not have the big spin of some of the other relievers.
- Maikel Garrido, LHP – Garrido is a large lefty reliever, and on the older (23) side for a complex level arm. He barely pitched in 2022, but he features a fastball and slider with big spin and velocity, but he struggles to throw strikes.
- Damon Jones, LHP – Jones features a low to mid 90s fastball and a pair of good breaking balls. Control has been a problem for him throughout his career, and he will miss a bunch of time with a shoulder injury.
- Tyler McKay, RHP – McKay is a big righty with a mid to low 90s sinking fastball, good changeup, and ok slider. He struggled to miss bats in AA and profiles as more of an org arm.
- Sam Jacobsak, RHP – Jacobsak missed a lot of time since signing in 2020. His fastball sits in the low 90s, touching up to 93-94. His big weapons are a pair of breaking balls with spin rates around 2800 RPM. The slider and curve are bat missing enough to make him interesting, but the fastball quality may be a limiting factor against upper minors hitters.
- Malik Binns, RHP – Binns is a big (6’7”) righty who is still fairly new to pitching. He has been up to 95, but sits lower than that. He has had major control issues and is on the older (24) side. He will be pitching for Great Britain in the WBC.
- Jason Ruffcorn, RHP – The Phillies gave Ruffcorn slot value in the 8th round in 202,1 and so far that has gone poorly. He was a closer in college with good control, but he struggled to throw strikes or miss bats in pro-ball. He is mostly low 90s, and his pitches don’t have some of the plus characteristics of some of the other minor league relievers.
- Alex Garbrick, RHP – Garbrick was a 5th year college pick for the Phillies in the 17th round of the 2021 draft. He has struggled with control, and his old issues came back to bite him after he got off to a hot start. Garbrick throws a whole host of pitches, with a sinker and 4S fastball that he can get up to 97, a pair of breaking balls with high (2700-2800 RPM) spin, and a changeup.
- Tyler Phillips, RHP – Phillips is a local kid that the Phillies claimed off waivers in 2021. He used to be a well regarded prospect in the Rangers system. He had Tommy John surgery in late 2021, and the Phillies re-signed him to a 2-year minor league contract. He is only 25 and appears to be healthy. He was previously a sinker/changeup, plus control back end starter type.
- Cam Wynne, RHP – Wynne was the Phillies last pick in the 2021 draft. Like most Phillies arms he is a bag, sort of raw reliever, who struggled with control in college. Wynne’s fastball sat in the low 90s, but has touched 96-97. His primary offspeed was a low 80s slider, but he threw a cutter, a curve, and a changeup at times.
Low Minor Fliers
- Jose Pena Jr., RHP – Pena is a big bodied RHP, who the Phillies took out of HS in the 6th round of the 2021 draft. His velocity was down a bit in 2022, peaking at only 94 in tracked appearance. His best secondary is a big spin curveball, but he also throws a changeup. Pena has struggled with control, but doesn’t turn 20 until over the summer.
- Samuel Aldegheri, LHP – The Phillies signed Aldegheri out of Italy in 2019, and he made his pro debut in 2021. Injuries limited him to just 12.1 innings in 2022. He is mostly low-90s, but was up to 94 in 2021, and features a good curveball and developing changeup.
- Andrick Nava, C – Nava was a big money signing in 2018, and hit at his first two pro stops in 2019 and 2021. He is a contact oriented switch hitter, who has struggled to hit for power (and average in 2022). There are questions about his ability to stick behind the plate.
- Arturo De Freitas, C – De Freitas is a defense first catcher who struggled at the plate in 2022. He had a minor injury that cut his winter league season short, but he should be healthy now.
- Leandro Pineda, OF – Pineda looks the part of an athletic outfielder, but his power has been lagging and his approach needs work. He likely does not get to where he needs to, but he is something to work with.
- Jonathan Petit, RHP – The Phillies brough Petit stateside after he was dominant as a 20 year old in the DSL in 2021. His FCL numbers weren’t as sterling, but he was up to 94, with a slider and curveball and good control. He had a successful VWL season as well. Petit is a bit on the older (turns 22 in April) side so the Phillies will likely push him.
- Jordan Dissin, C – Dissin is a big body catcher who had a good 10 game appearance in the FCL. He was the Phillies 12th round pick out of a California JuCo despite being a local kid.
- Gustavo Sosa, C – Sosa is a solidly built catcher who showed good power in the draft league coming into the draft. He has historically struggled with contact and approach, but had a small sample pro appearance.
- Gavin Tonkel, OF – Tonkel was a project when the Phillies took him in the 10th round in 2021. He has athleticism and speed, but was very raw. Unfortunately, he collided with part of the outfield and suffered a concussion that cost him the entire FCL season.
- Felix Reyes, OF/1B – Reyes is a big slugger with large raw power and really poor contact. He has struggled the last two years on trips to Hi-A Clearwater.
- Gabriel Cotto, LHP – Cotto throws a little bit harder these days, but is still barely touching 90. His slider is a really good pitch, but he is almost 23 and the velocity has just not come far enough.
- Cade Fergus, OF – Fergus is a good defensive center fielder who has good raw power if he can get to it. He also struck out 51 times in 115 pro plate appearances.
- Chad Castillo, 1B/OF – Castillo is another small school smasher drafted by the Phillies this past year. He hit the ball hard, but not at the high end, and played primarily first base. He has too much hit and miss to be optimistic about his long term future.
- Lou Helmig, OF – Helmig is a large left-handed hitting German slugger who struggled to impact the ball in 2022. He is a corner outfielder, and his swing is a bit long and stiff. He has a high risk of never getting past A-ball, but he also does not have much experience facing professional arms.
- Otto Kemp, 3B – Kemp was an NDFA signing this summer after mashing the last two years at Point Loma Nazarene. He did not put up big numbers for Clearwater, but had some of the highest exit velocities.
- Estibenzon Jimenez, RHP – The Phillies jumped the 20 (now 21) year old Jimenez from the DSL to the FCL, and then to the Threshers for his last two starts. The short righty is up to 94 with a four seam fastball with run. He has a slider and changeup as well, and was able to throw a good amount of strikes at every level. He probably is not far off of the back end starters on the back of the list.
- Ezra Farmer, OF – Farmer is the rare NDFA high school signing. He has some projection and athletic twitchiness, but will be a long term project.
- Pedro Martinez, SS – Martinez was once a prospect of some note with the Cubs and then the Rays. He put up good numbers before the pandemic, but put up enormous swing and miss numbers in 2021 and missed most of 2022 to injury. The Phillies took Martinez in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft, so they will see if they can resurrect the career of the now 22 year old. He can play all over the infield, and showed enough bat back in 2019 that he has the upside to be a utility infielder, even if that is a distant outcome.
- Tristan Garnett, LHP – Garnett is a big lefty who can get his fastball up to 94 (even if it will sit a bit lower). His changeup is probably his best secondary pitch, but he has a slider and has broken off a few curveballs. He threw a bunch of strikes in Clearwater, but has had control problems in the past.
- Wilson Valdez Jr., RHP – The son of a former Phillies shortstop turned reliever, Valdez also moved from the infield to the mound this year. His high 70s slider showed some promise, but his fastball was more 89-91, topping out at 93. He still has a long way to go and is entering his age 23 season, but the story is fun.
DSL Notables
- Jerffson Pena, OF – Pena was signed at the end of the 2021 signing period, so 2022 was his debut. He is an athletic center fielder who struck out a bit much, but has some interesting tools.
- Maxwell Hernandez, RHP – Hernandez was the ace of the White team this summer, and one of the best statistical pitchers in the DSL. He is a solidly built RHP who was sitting 89-91 earlier in the season, but was more 90-93 for the playoffs. He has a slider that was 77-80, but his best pitch was a low 80s changeup that befuddled DSL hitters. He throws plenty of strikes, and he has some interesting back of the rotation traits.
- Raylin Heredia, OF – The Phillies signed Heredia for $300,000 at the start of 2021, but he only played in 2 games his first season. He is an aggressive hitter at the plate, who hit a ton of line drives and kept the ball off the ground. He is still raw, but was one of the steady producers on the DSL White team.
- Saul Teran, RHP – Teran is a shorter RHP. He mostly worked out of the bullpen to open the year, but moved to the rotation to end the season. His fastball sits 90-94 with armside run, but he struggled to hold the higher end of the range deeper into starts late in the season. Throws a low 80s slider and threw a few changeups as well. Had a couple poor appearances, but otherwise was one of the reasons DSL Phillies White won the championship.
- Jonh Henriquez, RHP – Henriquez is already 23 and just signed this year after requesting a tryout. He had some control issues in his brief appearance, but his fastball was dominant, sitting 94-97 with good carry. He also threw a low 80s slider. The Phillies will bring him stateside and see if he can be a quick moving reliever.
- Danyony Pulido, RHP – Pulido is a 20 year old short RHP who put up a 1.82 ERA while hitting up to 94 with his fastball, as well as throwing a changeup and a slow curveball. He struggled to throw strikes consistently in both of his seasons.
- Nolan Beltran, SS – Beltran was one of the Phillies big signings in 2022 and did not impact the ball much for the DSL Phillies (despite reports of impressive exit velocities as an amateur). He did walk a ton, and played a solid second base, though he struggled with errors at short.
- Hermes Astudillo, RHP – Astudillo finished up his 3rd season in the DSL, and it wasn’t the most impressive statistically. He did sit 90-94 as a short right hander.
- Javier Fuenmayor, RHP – Fuenmayor has been a bit of a workhorse and swingman the last two seasons in the DSL. He is a 6’2” righty with a 4 pitch mix and a fastball that sits 89-94.
- Marco Soto, SS – Soto has a coach’s profile picture, but is actually a 19 year old switch hitting shortstop. He didn’t show much power, but has a good approach and feel for contact. He should be stateside in 2023.
- Manolfi Jimenez, OF – Jimenez is another athletic outfielder, though he is more of a right fielder in the long term. He posted good strikeout rates for the level, but faded strongly down the stretch. He probably gets another year in the DSL.
- Leonardo Rondon, C – Rondon was a catcher turned second baseman when he signed for $350,000 in 2021. After a rough first season, he moved back behind the plate in 2022. He was one the better hitters in the DSL, hitting .340/430/.476 with low strikeout rates. He is not the best defender behind the plate and was at first base more than he was at catcher. He is a short, solidly built hitter, and is already stateside this spring. If he can catch, he might be interesting.
Previously Ranked Prospects
- Kendall Simmons, IF – Simmons continues to make loud contact and had a bright 17 games in Jersey Shore to end the year. There are still massive questions about how much contact he will make and where he ends up defensively.
- Casey Martin, SS – Martin is a good defensive shortstop, but his bat is the problem. He greatly reduced his strikeout rate, but his walk rate collapsed, and his contact quality was poor. He is entering his age 24 season having hit .181/.235/.281 in A-ball in 2022.
- Freylin Minyety, IF – Minyety showed some ability to hit and possibly have positional flexibility in 2021. In 2022, he did the opposite, where he did not show impact with the bat (.017 ISO on the season) and lacked a position.
I Just Think They Are Neat and They Don’t Fall into Another Category
- Vito Friscia, C/1B/OF – Friscia is a 40th round pick from the last draft with a 40th round.He has a good approach and is a good AA/AAA contributor, but does not have enough offensive impact for his positions. He has future coach written all over him, but for now is a really solid minor league veteran.
- Rixon Wingrove, 1B – Wingrove is a big Australian slugger who strikes out too much and hits for no power vs LHPs (in very limited work). He likely never hits enough to be more than a Reading legend in 2023.
- Jared Carr, OF – Carr has posted large strikeout rates and saw his power evaporate for Jersey Shore. He found a bit more power with Adelaide this winter, but the contact issues persisted. He has shown to be a pretty good outfield defender.
- Anthony Quirion, C – Quirion was a 3B/C in college, but has moved almost entirely behind the plate in 2022. His numbers in affiliated ball were buoyed by a massive number of hit by pitches with Clearwater. He has some high end exit velocities and was one of the best hitters this winter on the Claxton Shield winning Adelaide team.