The Rule 5 draft is the highlight (or really in reality, last) thing of the Winter Meetings, occurring on Wednesday, December 11. Teams must set their 40 man and AAA protection rosters by 6pm EDT on Tuesday, November 19. This makes it a movement day for 40 man rosters across the sport, so it will likely include more movement than just 40 man additions, especially for a team like the Phillies looking to build overall depth.
As for thinking about protection, it comes down to me to three things.
- Will the Player stick with their new team?
- Will the Player being taken hurt their development?
- Will the Player being taken hurt the ability to make trades, or is the Player not being added to the 40 man make them more valuable?
Given historic precedent, the players that are taken and stick are MLB ready arms, and those with enough upside to be intriguing if they stick around. In rare cases, bats will be taken, but are mainly limited to up the middle defenders and MLB ready bats stuck in good organizations.
Almost Certain to Be Protected
The Phillies only really have pitchers in real discussion for Rule 5 protection. There are three of them that I think have the combination of upside and 2025 contribution to make them clear protection candidates.
- RHP Mick Abel – Abel is famous enough to be on a bunch of team’s radars and be a flashy pick if he were available. He had a terrible year, and struggled with velocity and command as he battled a lot of changes and setbacks. However, he was in AAA and was back to averaging around 96mph on his fastball late in the year. It is easy to map out a case that another team sees at minimum a reliever, and for the Phillies trying to map out a future path him losing winter and spring development if he is taken and returned is a big setback.
- RHP Moises Chace – With everyone getting the end of the year to collect their notes and thoughts, Chace has emerged as a top 10 prospect and 2nd best pitching prospect in the Phillies system. He started looking like a more complete starting pitcher after the trade and was dominant in AA. His fastball with its mid 90s velocity and flat, riding shape is tailored made for a bullpen role even if the secondary pitches need polishing, so it isn’t hard to see where another team would stash him.
- RHP Eiberson Castellano – Castellano was the breakout pitching prospect of the year, and won the Paul Owens Award. He has some reliever risk, which hurts his overall prospect stock, and his fastball shapes are not analytically pretty. But, he does have good size, mid 90s velocity, a good breaking ball, an improving changeup, and a much improved feel for pitching. Another team can see a bulk reliever now who could be a starter later, and the Phillies can justify his 40 man spot as starter now, and possible 2025 reliever later if they need an arm.
In Consideration
The Phillies have been very conservative with their protections in recent years, which is going to leave some players on the outside and in danger of being selected.
- RHP Jean Cabrera – Cabrera is probably a more complete pitcher than Eiberson Castellano, and there might be another leap from his skinny frame. However, Cabrera is a much harder sell as a 2025 option both for an opposing team and the Phillies. His fastball velocity might play up in a relief role, but its best form is more sinker than four seam. His changeup is a very good pitch as a starter because he sells it so well, but it isn’t a spammable bat misser. His sweeper has improved, but it is set up by the command and the fastball. This likely comes down to what trade talks the Phillies have had around Cabrera and if they think another team out there loves him. You can’t lose him, but also you might not need to protect him.
- RHP Christian McGowan – McGowan’s healthy return year was not entirely healthy and he only pitcher 40.1 regular season innings. He has interesting stuff with a sinker that will sit 95-97 early in games, a slider and cutter that he will expand into a wide range of shapes, and then a solid changeup. McGowan is already on the starter-reliever line and if selected it would be a reliever. The problem is that his command and ability to miss bats isn’t at a level right now where he is a lock to help in 2025.
- RHP Griff McGarry – If he wasn’t named Griff McGarry this might not be a conversation. It was another poor year for McGarry who has continued to struggle to make improvements to his command. He is also mostly 93-96 with his fastball, and it doesn’t have quite the same shape he once did. His breaking balls will be his weapons with his cutter and sweeper playing well off each other and on their own. It is hard to escape 45 walks in 41.1 innings if you argue that McGarry can handle jumping into a major league bullpen.
- LHP Tristan Garnett – If you were asking if a team might claim Garnett off of waivers, the answer might be yes, because he has an intriguing skill set. At his best, Garnett will be low-90s up to 95 from a deceptive and funky angle, with a big slow changeup. However, Garnett was more 89-91 in the AFL and will be 27 on opening day. That shows a general lack of both upside and the immediate contribution you would want from a Rule 5 pick. It feels like Garnett is not protected and has a chance to still appear in the majors for them later in the year.
Other Names
It is unlikely these players are protected, but they should be mentioned now because they probably will be on potential pick lists.
- RHP Andrew Baker – Baker can sit upper 90s, touching over 100, with his fastball, and he pairs it with a good power curveball. He was so bad he was demoted to Jersey Shore early in the year before turning his year around. He still walked 16 in 25 innings after returning to Reading.
Minor League Phase
For the AAA phase, teams may protect up to 38 players on their AAA roster. The Phillies have picked 7 and 5 picks the last two years, but minor league contraction has likely reduced the number of players available, but not necessarily the quality. I would expect the Phillies to leave 4-5 spots available. My current count has the Phillies with 41 players who are Rule 5 eligible, and we are expecting them to protect 3-5 players, so that is 36-38 players for 33-34 spots. I expect the Phillies to leave some of the AA/AAA depth guys available and there are some lower minor org filler guys on the fringes as well. However, there is a chance an interesting player is left available. I don’t expect these players to be left unprotected, but if they are, they could be interesting.
- IF Diego Gonzalez – Gonzalez is a versatile defensive player who went on a nice little run with the Threshers this year, but lacks thump.
- RHP Jaydenn Estanista – It wasn’t a great year for Estanista, but he started to show some improvements in command and breaking ball. He gets decent ride on his fastball, but the angle isn’t great. His slider, could use some more velocity, but it generated a bunch of whiffs with the Threshers.
- RHP Giussepe Velasquez – Velasquez had Tommy John in late 2023, but was starting to show some intriguing growth. He will be 21 on opening day, so a team could see him as a cheap project if he is left available.
- LHP Erubiel Armenta – Due to injuries, Armenta has not pitched in two years. His debut season was dominant, and his follow-up 2022 featured much less control. He has some funk, a good changeup, and mid 90s fastball.
List of other Rule 5 Eligible Players
Hitters: Ethan Wilson, Felix Reyes, Brahian Silva, Carson Taylor, Erick Brito, Fernando Hernandez, Luis Caicuto, Marcus Lee Sang, Ricardo Rosario, Andrick Nava, Leandro Pineda, Trevor Schwecke, Josh Breaux, Matt Kroon
Pitchers: Alex Garbrick, Estibenzon Jimenez, Jake McKenna, Konnor Ash, Matt Osterberg, Pedro Reyes, Tommy McCollum, Gunner Mayer, Noah Skirrow, Andrew Schultz, Carlos Francisco, Jonah Dipoto, Juan Amarante, Nelson L. Alvarez