We are now 12 weeks into the minor league season and 6 weeks before the trade deadline. With the FCL season over a month in, this year gives a good chance to have actual information on the breakouts already happening. Not all rankings changes may be as reflected in the actual number, as the tiers have widened and flattened, particularly between the top and bottom. In general, the system is arrow up, despite missing Painter for the year and a regression for Mick Abel, thanks to Aidan Miller’s emergence, Caba’s continued progression, and George Klassen launching through the system. I stuck to only the first few tiers of the organization for the numeric rankings to reflect that the granularity and constant shifting nature makes rankings lower to be subject to constant change. I hope to have notes on more in the next week. All previous rankings are for the preseason, and I have linked to the weekly and monthly recaps to give more snapshots and deeper dives where available.
To start, Aidan Miller has moved up to the same tier as Andrew Painter, and I would view both as at least top 30 prospects in baseball who have the talent to be top 10 prospects in the sport.
1. Andrew Painter, RHP
Preseason Rank: 1
What Has Changed: Nothing, Painter continues to progress on his rehab. Recently he began throwing off of at least a partial mound. Assuming he continues to progress without issue then he should be completing the standard rehab right about the end of the season.
Future Outlook: Painter still has the most upside of anyone in the system, and if he comes back healthy he should be a front of the rotation starter in the majors at some point in the 2025 when he will be just 22 years old.
2. Aidan Miller, SS
Preseason Rank: 3
What Has Changed: The most notable skill change has been that Miller has shown that he can handle shortstop. Circumstance and team need might move him off the position, but for now he looks like he can stick there. If he does have to move then it bodes well for his ability to handle second or third. At the plate, he has shown a great approach, good power, and good contact rates. His swing is cleaner after some offseason changes, and he hasn’t shown any concerning weaknesses at the plate.
Future Outlook: Miller has already been pushed to Jersey Shore and he probably will spend the rest of the season there. He looks like a middle of the order hitter who can stick at an up the middle position defensively, and that puts him just outside the top top prospects in baseball, but not far off.
Featured: April (Stock Steady), May (Stock Up)
With the movement of Miller up the list and some other players down, that leaves Caba in a group alone in what I would say is a top 50 to 75 prospect in baseball.
3. Starlyn Caba, SS
Preseason Rank: 4
What Has Changed: He has hit the ball a bit harder. Caba is striking out a bit more, but from observation a lot of that has been looking on close pitches. I have seen some peak exit velocities in the 105+ range, but mostly of the ball directly into the ground variety. There is enough raw strength to hint that there might be average-ish raw power in the long term. Otherwise, he is an advanced hitter who doesn’t pound the ball into ground and should ground into being a good hitter. He is very fast on the bases and cleaned up most of his early season baserunning issues. He is a great fielder who will occasionally make a bad play, but no one is worried about that part of his game.
Future Outlook: There was some thought that they might aggressively push him to Clearwater into Aidan Miller’s spot with the Threshers, but that might be more on pace with the early end of the FCL season. It would be good to see him drive the ball a few more times this year, but there aren’t a lot of questions that he needs to answer that he can answer in the second half. Whether he can hit for some power or not will determine if he is an All-Star type top of the order hitter or glove first regular in the bottom third of a lineup.
Featured: May (Stock Up)
The number in front of Mick Abel’s name has only dropped by 2 and the one in front of Crawford has not changed at all, but both of them have moved into more of the fringe top 100 prospect conversation alongside break out pitcher George Klassen and teenager Eduardo Tait.
4. Mick Abel, RHP
Preseason Rank: 2
What Has Changed: He has been a mess. Whatever delivery changes have been made have not worked yet, his arm looks late and he has missed up and arm side with an alarming number of his fastballs. His velocity has been down all season, and is only now starting to increase to near his 2023 levels. The Phillies have mostly shelved his secondary pitches, in a move likely aimed at trying to get the delivery back on track. That has hurt his results as Abel has become more of a kitchen sink type pitcher with his fastball able to do some work, but his slider and curveball being his two best pitches.
Future Outlook: Barring some sort of massive or unexpected change, it is fair to write-off any sort of front of the rotation upside for Abel. There is still a mid rotation arm in there somewhere, and his remade gyro slider looks like at least a plus pitch. He will turn 23 this summer, so he isn’t the youngest prospect, but also he isn’t fully formed either. He will need to show some improvements over the coming weeks and months to just show that he hasn’t lost everything that made him a top prospect.
Featured: April (Stock Down)
5. Justin Crawford, OF
Preseason Rank: 5
What Has Changed: Crawford is hitting the ball on the ground a bit less this season, but his quality of contact continues to have red flags. His swing looks slightly better, but his upper and lower half look disconnected and he is late on pitches (often hitting the ball the other way). As concerning is that he is walking less and striking out more, building on some concerning approach and chase rates with the Threshers.
Future Outlook: Crawford still has good raw tools, he is a plus plus runner, he is a good center field defender, and he makes hard contact. Everything about Crawford’s ceiling is still intact, it is just that the path has gotten even more shaky after there were already worrying signs.
Featured: April (Stock Steady), May (Stock Down), Week 3 (4/9-4/14)
6. George Klassen, RHP
Preseason Rank: 22
What Has Changed: Klassen is throwing strikes, and he is thriving as a starting pitcher. He is sitting 96 to 98 and routinely touches 99, and holding the velocity into his starts while also showing a mature approach to pacing his velocity. His gyro cutter/slider is a plus or better pitch and when paired with his power curveball has allowed him to dominate low-A hitters. He had a minor injury, but has come back just as good as he was to start the year. Overall he has moved from definite reliever to potential mid rotation or better starter with a reliever fall back option.
Future Outlook: Klassen has not pushed 90 to 100 pitches or consistently 6+ innings, so there are some lingering workload questions. His command is still below average, and his promotion to Jersey Shore will be a good test on if he can continue to dial it in and get more experienced batters to continue to chase. There is still a lot of reliever risk because of his history, but there is no reason for the Phillies to not to continue to develop him as a starting pitcher.
Featured: April (Stock Up), Week 2 (4/2-4/7)
7. Eduardo Tait, C
Preseason Rank: 7
What Has Changed: After a slow start, Tait has ramped up to the point that he has been on fire in June. He still has defensive struggles and some offensive holes. He has not yet had an extra base hit off of a lefty, and he can swing and miss at a high rate, despite keeping his strikeout rate reasonable. In many ways, he hasn’t changed much, but repeating much of his DSL performance in the FCL is a positive step.
Future Outlook: Tait will probably spend the rest of the season in the FCL. There is a chance that he gets some time with the Threshers at the end of the season. The catching defense is going to require repetitions, and it may take many years to get to where it needs to be. The biggest thing to look for in the second half will be whether he can continue the incremental growth in his approach at the plate. He probably will never be a good defensive catcher, but he can be a power first power bat.
Featured: May (Stock Steady)
From here to the end of the list is all one group, including some minors infielders, some FCL breakouts, pitchers across the org having good years, and some other familiar names. What it represents is some players sliding down, but there is a lot of the middle class of the Phillies ranked prospects that have had good seasons.
8. William Bergolla, 2B
Preseason Rank: 8
What Has Changed: The Phillies aggressively pushed Bergolla to Jersey Shore and it looked like a mistake at first. He hit .172/.210/.241 in April with an uncharacteristic walk and strikeout rate. However, he got his feet under him in May and has been on fire in June. He hit his first career home run and has twice as many extra base hits so far this year than in his career to this point. He still has strength and future power concerns, but he is starting to drive ball in a way that feels sustainable. He has moved full time to second base with shortstop as a secondary position.
Future Outlook: Bergolla puts the ball in play in the way you want, but he still needs to hit the ball harder to hold up as a future major leaguer. Second base has become less of a power position with shifting rules, so if he can get himself to 5-10 home run power and plus defense, he can be an everyday regular, especially since his approach and contact skills continue to be elite.
Featured: Week 11 (6/4-6/10)
9. Bryan Rincon, SS
Preseason Rank: 9
What Has Changed: Another slow start turned good May, Rincon looked passive at the plate in April and started driving the ball more in May. That bounce back was good because Rincon suffered a leg injury in the middle of May that will likely keep him out for most of the year.
Future Outlook: It is still unknown when Rincon will return from his injury. However, before his injury Rincon looked like a plus glove, ok bat shortstop. Depending on how ok the bat is, there is still a wide range of outcomes, but he has a chance to be an everyday regular.
Featured: May (Stock Steady), Week 6 (4/30-5/5)
10. Gabriel Rincones Jr., OF
Preseason Rank: 12
What Has Changed: Rincones only played 13 games this season, but they were a good 13 games. He has his limitations, he is going to struggle vs LHPs and he is going to strike out. What he needs to do is hit for power when he does make contact, and he did that in his small sample. He hurt his thumb, requiring surgery and his return date is currently unknown.
Future Outlook: Rincones is unlikely to be an everyday player, but he can be a strong side of a platoon corner outfielder who can generate enough value to give everyday regular value. Before the injury he was trending towards a chance at a 2024 debut, he looks now more to be a 2025 pace assuming he comes back fully healthy.
Featured: April (Stock Up)
11. Samuel Aldegheri, LHP
Preseason Rank: 13
What Has Changed: Aldegheri is throwing harder and his slider and changeup look sharper. He is throwing more 90-93 getting to 94 and 95 with some regularity. His slider has been his best secondary pitch, and his .127/.211/.127 line against lefties shows its dominance. His changeup is flashing better, but he has had success vs righties with pounding sliders in and elevating his 4-seamer. The increase in velocity gets him into the place where you could see him sticking in a rotation. His command has had some games where it has been suboptimal, and he doesn’t paint the corners the way Ranger Suarez does. He will need to continue to refine hitting the edges and corners, and he will need to continue to build on the changeup so he doesn’t get exposed vs better right handed batters. Aldegheri is also one of the Phillies pitching prospects that is built up to work to 100 pitches per start.
Future Outlook: If Aldegheri puts together another few starts like his last few, he will be due for a promotion to Reading, which will test his ability to not get hit around by right handed batters. Aldegheri is also one to watch as we near the deadline. He is starting to creep closer to showing a higher ceiling, but for now looks more like a solid #4.
Featured: April (Stock Up)
12. Jean Cabrera, RHP
Preseason Rank: 18
What Has Changed: Cabrera is throwing better across the board. Last season he was throwing the ball in the zone, or to a specific chase spot. He is now setting batters up, and controlling the zone. He has better control of his sweeping slider, and his changeup has been a devastating weapon. He is also sitting more 93-96 with his fastball throughout his starts. He is pitching into the 7th inning and has been up to 100+ pitches.
Future Outlook: Cabrera’s velocity is above Aldegheri’s but his fastballs are not real bat missers for him. His sweeper is a solid pitch, but it isn’t a plus pitch, and that has shown in some pretty strong reverse platoon splits. Because of the velocity, you can see the outline of a mid rotation starter if you squint hard enough, but he is probably more a solid innings eater. Despite his slight frame, he has held up to the rigors of starting well.
Featured: Week 3 (4/9-4/14), Week 12 (6/11-6/17)
13. Aroon Escobar, IF
Preseason Rank: 46
What Has Changed: Escobar has been one of the best hitters in the FCL thanks to his great approach at the plate. He hits the ball very hard, and has been a player of extremes, hitting two home runs in a game, but also plenty of unproductive contact. If he can get the ball on a line and in the air, he is going to hit for plenty for power. Defensively he looks better at third with a strong arm, but he can play second base. Given the lower quality of pitching in the FCL this season, the approach numbers will need to hold up against better pitching before he can be viewed as actually elite in the area and just feasting on poor control arms.
Future Outlook: The thing to watch for Escobar will be the quality of contact. Can he drive the ball in the air more as the season goes on. He is older than some of the other top prospects on the FCL team, making him a prime candidate for a promotion to the Threshers after the FCL season. If he can get to the power more, he has a chance more than anyone here to be one of the top prospects in the org.
Featured: May (Stock Up)
14. Devin Saltiban, 2B
Preseason Rank: 16
What Has Changed: It has been a mixed bag for Saltiban, and better than his overall stat line. He looks playable at second base, but it is definitely not a finished product, and they have not tried shortstop all season. His 27.8% strikeout rate is high, but not unreasonable chase rates, zone contract rates, and swing and miss vs offspeeds means it might be inflated. His max exit velocity this year is higher than Aidan Miller’s, but his 90th percentile is 5 mph below Miller, showing how Saltiban has struggled to get to the good contact consistently. None of this is totally unexpected, but the hope is that Saltiban starts to put more pieces together as he gets more at bats.
Future Outlook: There will be two competing factors for Saltiban over the second half. Can he get better as he faces the league again, and starts to see premium offspeed more, or will the grind the season start to get to him as well and wear him down. On some level, you are looking for continued flashes from him, because there is an everyday infielder with interesting traits here.
Featured: May (Stock Steady), Week 8 (5/14-5/20)
15. TJayy Walton, OF
Preseason Rank: 17
What Has Changed: Multiple injuries has meant that we have only gotten glimpses from Walton this year. He struck out a bit much in 18 games, but he elevated the ball in that small sample. He also did damage when he swung, with a max exit velocity of 113.4 mph and a 90th percentile exit velocity of 105.2 mph, putting him right next to Aidan Miller and Jordan Viars. Despite the high strikeout rate, he had a solid chase rate and zone contact rate. It all was a very encouraging small sample size.
Future Outlook: Walton will need to get healthy, and then it will be whether he can just put together a longer stretch of what he has done. He looked to have enough offensive upside to be a regular in an outfield corner.
16. Guillermo Rosario, C
Preseason Rank: Unranked
What Has Changed: Rosario has cooled off significantly since starting the season a crazy heater, but it has still been a big breakout of the 19 year old catcher. Last season he had just 5 extra base hits in 32 games, he is up to 11 in fewer games this year. His strikeout rate is way up, and he has some contact and chase issues. He has hit the ball hard all FCL season, and unsurprisingly with some of the hit tool worries there is some quality of contact issues too. Behind the plate he is a good defensive catcher, who already seems like a team leader and game manager.
Future Outlook: Rosario is still fairly raw at the plate, but that is unsurprising for a teenager in their second pro season. He is lanky and still has physical projection, so he should continue to tap into more power. Rosario is a very interesting prospect going forward.
Featured: May (Stock Up), Week 9 (5/21-5/27)
17. Michael Mercado, RHP
Preseason Rank: 31
What Has Changed: It is been a weird time trying to judge Mercado’s season and it almost entirely has to do with his usage. This spring, he was stock up in a bullpen role, throwing in the high 90s with good ride and then throwing two breaking balls for chases. The Phillies have since started stretching him out as a starter with mixed results. At his best he is 95-97 with the curve and cutter getting chases. He has also seen his control falter, his velocity has dropped to 92, and struggled to work in a changeup. It leaves a large range of outcomes from a 5-6 inning mid rotation starter, to late inning reliever, to solid long man.
Future Outlook: For now, Mercado looks to be starting, so it will be important to see more consistency whether it is velocity or control. The Phillies pitching staff is fairly full right now, which means there isn’t a clear path for Mercado to get a callup, but he does appear to be the first or second guy up in a bunch of roles.
Featured: Week 8 (5/14-5/20)
18. Wen Hui Pan, RHP
Preseason Rank: 14
What Has Changed: Pan suffered a hand injury during the spring and is reportedly throwing now. He was slated to be in sort of a hybrid starting and relieving role.
Future Outlook: Hopefully Pan will be out on a rehab outing soon. The big areas for growth for Pan will be holding his velocity into games and start to start. His control suffered when he was with the BlueClaws and he will need to get his offspeed near the zone enough to get chases. Having missed almost the first 3 months of the season it will be important for him to build up some innings too. At this point it is sort of difficult to actually get a grasp on what role Pan will eventually settle into.
19. Alex McFarlane, RHP
Preseason Rank: 21
Future Outlook: McFarlane is out for the year with the Tommy John surgery and will theoretically be ready for Spring Training 2025. It is easy to see McFarlane coming back in a bullpen role, but the Phillies have not always shoved every arm there.
20. Mavis Graves, LHP
Preseason Rank: 37
What Has Changed: Graves started the year throwing a touch higher, but that velocity has faded from start to start, sitting more around 90 and less than the touching 95 he was early. It is the other things that have progressed forward for Graves. His strikeout percent is up to 34.7% from 27.6% and his walk rate has plummeted from 17.8% to 9.3%. His offspeed pitches have all missed bats, with his harder gyro slider/cutter getting a 45% chase rate and 27.4% swinging strike rate. His changeup has progressed nice, but the sweeper/cutter combination has been devastating to low-A batters. The velocity is still a concern, but he is a projectable 20 year old lefty, so he still has time to have it catch up.
Future Outlook: Graves is at 47 innings so far, which is a new career high. A big test will be not collapsing as the season continues (it does look like he got a week off the week of 6/10) and even if the velocity stays where it is, the control can stay where it is.
Featured: Week 4 (4/16-4/21), Week 9 (5/21-27)
21. Carlos De La Cruz, OF
Preseason Rank: 11
What Has Changed: If it weren’t for showing signs of life and a full on rebirth in June, De La Cruz would have completely fallen off the list. Instead he has found both his power and cut down on his strikeouts over the last month (he was hitting .321/.415/.593 over the last 28 days at the time of writing). Nothing looks really different about him, but his timing looked off all spring training and that really carried into the season.
Future Outlook: It is a very narrow path that De La Cruz travels. He is no longer young (this is his age 24 season), but he still looks raw and lanky. He will be a minor league free agent after this season, so he is auditioning for the Phillies and other organizations. However, the power is so tantalizing and easy, and you can see the bat speed to work in the majors. His ceiling is probably 4th outfielder, but there is a potential breakout player lurking
Featured: April (Stock Down), Week 12 (6/11-6/17)
Graduating: Orion Kerkering
Falling Off the List: Christian McGowan, Griff McGarry, Estibenzon Jimenez, Raylin Heredia