Top Prospects
Mick Abel – Abel is the Phillies top healthy prospect and probably the most impactful prospect still in the minors for the 2024 season. Abel isn’t on the IronPigs Opening Day roster, but is expected to join them very early. He has remade himself a bit over the last year. This offseason he simplified his delivery a little to help with his command, and it should pair well with his remade arsenal. Abel will throw a 4 seam fastball and a sinker, both in the mid to upper 90s, and can elevate the 4S for swings and misses. His changeup is improving, and will sit in the high 80s to low 90s with good deception off of his fastball. He has shortened his slider into a hard, vertical gyro version that he can throw more in the zone, which should allow his best secondary pitch, his sweeping curveball to shine. Command will be the big thing for Abel, and whether he can attack hitters more directly without just fishing for chases.
Griff McGarry – McGarry is now in the bullpen and features a toned down arsenal of his fastball, cutter, and curveball. The Phillies rebuilt his delivery and the results have been mixed. If he can throw strikes, he is going to get batters out because his raw stuff is that good. His fastball has been more 93-96, and if in short bursts that can be 96-98 he could be a dominant reliever.
Michael Mercado – Mercado was the breakout of Phillies camp showing electric stuff. His fastball sat upper 90s in short bursts with big Induced Vertical Break. The Phillies may be stretching him out some, and he struggled to hold velocity when that happened in the Spring Breakout game. He also throws a big curveball and a high 80s, and has been toying around with a splitter. He could put himself in position for a call up if there is a need.
Under the Radar
Tyler Phillips – The 2023 season was Phillips’ first back from Tommy John surgery and he got himself back on the prospect radar. The numbers weren’t great, and he struggled to miss bats and suppress contact quality. There were however, positive underlying signs. Both the struggles and the positives continued into Phillips’ Spring Training appearances. He added a 4-seam fastball to his sinker, and averaged over 94 mph on fastballs. He threw both a sweeper and a big curveball, and is working on a split change. There is a middle reliever or back end starter in the pitch mix, but so far those pieces have not yet come together.
Matt Kroon – This will be Kroon’s age 27 season, so he far from a young up and coming prospect. He hit .326/.399/.526 last year including .381/.467/.698 in 15 games in AAA last year. It wasn’t a great Spring Training for Kroon, but he walked 6 times to 7 strikeouts. He hits the ball hard, but will need to get it in the air more. He can play third base and all three outfield positions, and has some of the underlying traits that could jump him to the top of the RH utility bat call up list.
Offensive Expectations
The 2023 IronPigs were a top 5 offensive team in the International League last year. They lose Jake Cave who was one of the best hitters in the league and Dustin Peterson who game them some good power, but they return a bunch of the same batters. Depending on major league needs, Weston Wilson and Kody Clemens might not get full years in AAA, but if they pick up where they left off they will help while they are with the Pigs. Wilson went 30-30 last year with a .878 OPS and Clemens in his 62 games put up a .937 OPS. Darick Hall is on the 40 man roster, but is probably more in danger of a DFA than a call up, but he hit .311/.395/.488 for the pigs last year. Simon Muzziotti has his flaws, but he is a solid average and on base guy, and Aramis Garcia is coming off a strong spring training and should be a strong offensive catcher for AAA. Scott Kingery, Cal Stevenson, and Esteban Quiroz round out the returning players as solid bench bats.
Joining the roster is two older hitters coming off great years in AA in Nick Podkul and Matt Kroon, and then some bats with actual MLB experience. David Dahl may not longer be an MLB All-Star, but he had a .818 OPS in AAA last year and should replace much of what Jake Cave did. Jordan Luplow only has a .737 career MLB OPS, but is a career .282/.372/.484 hitter in 221 AAA games. Rounding it out is another 40 man bat in Rodolfo Castro has has struggled in the majors, but should be a good AAA player.
Pitching Expectations
The pitching side for the IronPigs has more prospect power than the hitting side, but there are plenty of veterans as well. The rotation looks like it will include at least Tyler Phillips, David Buchanan, Kolby Allard, Mick Abel, and then some Max Castillo and Ricardo Pinto. There is no reason to think that Buchanan won’t excel in AAA, and it would not be surprising if he is the stabilizing ace of the staff. None of the starting pitchers other than Abel have electric stuff, and it could be a real contact heavy slog at times.
The bullpen has a backbone of guys with extensive MLB and AAA experience. Ryan Burr, Austin Brice, Jose Ruiz, Zac Houston, and Andrew Bellatti should all give solid innings and there is a chance one of them pops. Tyler McKay, Taylor Lehman, and Nick Nelson are all returning and offer differing skillsets. McKay should be a funky ground ball machine if he can throw enough strikes, Lehman has struggled with control, but destroyed lefties, and Nick Nelson sort of does a lot of things ok and should give some solid multi inning relief. The two wild cards will be Mercado and McGarry who probably won’t be in AAA forever if they dominate, but give a spark to the pitching staff that is missing elsewhere.
Injuries
Nick Snyder is the lone occupant of an Injured List spot to open the season as he starts on the 60 day IL for an undisclosed injury. Rafael Marchan and Michael Rucker both will begin on the major league IL. Rucker if he gets healthy could be part of the up and down portion of the Phillies bullpen and should be a solid AAA contributor when he is with the Pigs. Marchan has made slow and steady progress despite missing a bunch of time to injuries, but this is his last option year so the Phillies are likely to prioritize playing time for him when he is back. He should make for a good tandem with Garcia, providing average and on base to Garcia’s power.
Looking Ahead and Overall Thoughts
The upper levels of the Phillies system are a bit rough when it comes to actual prospects. In Reading, Carlos De La Cruz and Ethan Wilson are expected to repeat the level and could force a way to AAA, but barring a De La Cruz breakout, they aren’t dramatically changing the offensive fortunes in Lehigh Valley. Former IronPig Jim Haley could also come up and provide some depth. The arms in Reading include a couple of former IronPigs and the Phillies full compliment of hard throwers with poor control. Christian McGowan could put himself in line for a starting role, and guys like Andrew Baker, Max Lazar, and Tommy McCollum could force bullpen promotions.
The IronPigs should be good, even if they will be unexciting for prospect watchers. They will mostly provide the Phillies depth, but they should also put a good competitive team on he field most nights and should be postseason race all year.