The past year has seen a lot of changes in the Phillies system; as the major league club transitions into a rebuilding phase, more and more emphasis is being put on the farm system. A criticism often levied against the Phillies system is that it lacks impact and near term help. As for the impact, I understand this argument, as this list does drop off after the first three names. However, J.P. Crawford is one of the best prospects in baseball, and both Nola and Franco should be very good players for the Phillies. In terms of help for the big league club, 7 of these guys will start the year in AA or AAA, and while they won’t help the 2015 club, one should expect to see many of them helping out in 2016. On a whole, the Phillies system has taken a step forward since last year, and this list is almost unrecognizable from the first Top 30 I wrote up following the 2012 season. I wish I could tell you there is another championship run of prospects ready to go right now. What I can tell you is that the front office has mobilized resources in many different areas of talent acquisition. This gives the farm system plenty of depth and a good mix of upside and safety, providing a good start to a solid recovery for the franchise.
Top 50: Primer | 1-10 | 11-20 | 21-30 | 31-40 | 41-50 | Other Names | Relievers
1. J.P. Crawford – SS (Profile)
DOB: January 11, 1995 (20)
H/W: 6’2″ 180lb
B/T: L/R
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round (#16 overall) in the 2013 draft by the Phillies ($2,299,300 bonus)
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
LKW (A-) | 60 | 267 | 3 | 14 | 13.9 | 13.9 | .295 | .398 | .405 |
CLW (A+) | 63 | 271 | 8 | 10 | 10.3 | 13.7 | .275 | .352 | .407 |
Role: First Division Regular, occasional All-Star
Risk: Medium – Crawford still has yet to face upper minors pitching, but his defensive tools give him a high floor, even if the bat doesn’t fully develop.
Summary: No Phillies prospect had a bigger breakout year than J.P. Crawford. The 2013 first round pick has cemented himself as one of the top prospects in the game. The best way to describe Crawford in the field is smooth. His glove could be plus or better once he cleans up some minor flaws, but his range is great, and his actions are solid. Crawford has plus arm strength, but he does not always get everything out of it. All this makes him natural defender at shortstop, and I have no questions about his ability to stick at the position and be very good there. On offense, Crawford has a good feel for contact, but more impressively his plate discipline has been incredible as a pro (so far in his career he has 97 walks and 109 strikeouts in 766 plate appearances). Right now, Crawford’s power is below average and only to his pull side, but in batting practice he shows the possibility for more once he adds some more strength. It is still unlikely that Crawford will hit more than 20 home runs in a year, because his swing is more geared for line drives than fly balls, however more strength will mean plenty of doubles to the gaps. Crawford has plus raw speed, but between starts and instincts, he has not been a good base stealer so far. All of this sounds rather good, but not great. However, here are 2014’s three best batting lines (by wRC+) by players who will be playing SS in 2015:
AVG | OBP | SLG |
.263 | .336 | .443 |
.292 | .339 | .438 |
.255 | .313 | .430 |
The offensive bar at shortstop is fairly low, and Crawford should be able to hit for a good average, draw plenty of walks, and hit for a decent amount of power. Put it all together, and you have a player who could be one of the better offensive shortstops in the game. If he can add that to plus defense, he could become a borderline All-Star and franchise player. Crawford should open the year in AA and would be fine to spend the whole year in Reading before a possible 2016 arrival in the majors.
Previous Rank: 3
ETA: 2016
2. Aaron Nola – RHP (Profile)
DOB: June 4, 1993 (21)
H/W: 6’1″ 195lb
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round (#7 overall) in the 2014 draft by the Phillies ($3,300,900 bonus)
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
CLW (A+) | 7 | 6 | 2-3 | 31.1 | 3.16 | 6.9 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 8.6 |
REA (AA) | 5 | 5 | 2-0 | 24.0 | 2.63 | 9.4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 5.6 |
Role: #2/#3 Starter
Risk: Low – Nola is major league ready right now. However, he could use some time in the minors to continue to polish his control and secondary pitches.
Summary: Nola has been described as “safe” and “polished”, words that may give some the impression that he lacks impact as a pitching prospect. Nola’s fastball sits 90-93 and routinely touches 95, and in college he was able to get to 97 in a big showdown with Tyler Beede. The discussion of his velocity overshadows the explosive late life on his fastball, though this movement was less present late in the season as he tired. The more advanced of Nola’s secondary pitches is his breaking ball, which is really a curveball but Nola’s arm slot makes it look like a slider, that he can spot in the zone and use it as a chase pitch. The general consensus is that it has plus potential if he gains consistency. Nola also has a changeup that flashes plus potential, but Nola does not use it as confidently as the fastball or curveball. On top of the three plus pitches, Nola has good control, is developing solid command, and has an impressive feel for pitching. On an individual basis, Nola’s stuff is only solid, but the full collection makes for an impressive arsenal. The likely outcome for Nola is as a mid-rotation starter who could get there fairly quickly. However, Nola’s feel for pitching could see continued growth in his secondary pitches, as well as results that are above his individual pitch grades. Nola will start 2015 in the minors, and he should make the majors at some point in the second half of the 2015 season.
Previous Rank: N/A
ETA: 2015
3. Maikel Franco – 3B (Profile)
DOB: August 26, 1992 (22)
H/W: 6’1″ 180lb
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Signed as an international free agent on January 13, 2010 by the Phillies ($100,000 bonus)
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
LHV (AAA) | 133 | 556 | 16 | 3 | 5.4 | 14.6 | .257 | .299 | .428 |
PHI (MLB) | 16 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 22.4 | .179 | .190 | .214 |
Role: First Division Regular
Risk: Medium – Despite the fact that he has already made the major leagues, Franco still has to make some adjustments to his approach in order to get reach his ceiling.
Summary: In many ways, Franco’s 2014 was not a step backwards; it was just another adjustment along the developmental path. For many of us, the hype on Maikel Franco a year ago was a bit premature; he still had big problems with his approach at the plate that he needed to work through. Many of those problems still remain, as Franco still has the bat speed and hand eye coordination to put the bat on the ball, but unfortunately his pitch recognition and approach make these swings ill advised. Franco still has plus or better raw power, mostly to his pull side. The swing can get a bit long at times, which forces him to have to make decisions on pitches earlier than he can recognize them. He should hit for a decent average, with a low walk rate and a fairly low strikeout rate. The real question is whether he can get the approach to a place where he makes enough quality contact to have the power show up in games. The biggest strides that Franco made in 2014 were on defense. Range is still going to be a problem for him at third, but his arm is very strong, and his actions are pretty good. With a commitment to keeping himself in shape and limber, Franco could be an average defender at third base for the foreseeable future. Franco’s game has its flaws, but very few players have his combination of power, bat speed, and hand eye coordination. He should start the year in AAA in order to get another year of team control (and allow the Phillies time to evaluate Cody Asche) but he remains the Phillies’ third baseman of the future.
Previous Rank: 1
ETA: 2014
4. Yoel Mecias – LHP (Profile)
DOB: October 11, 1993 (21)
H/W: 6’2″ 160lb
B/T: L/L
Acquired: Signed as an international free agent on December 20, 2010 by the Phillies ($50,000 bonus)
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
GCL (Rk) | 4 | 4 | 0-1 | 17.0 | 4.76 | 10.1 | 0.0 | 4.2 | 5.3 |
LKW (A-) | 7 | 7 | 3-3 | 33.2 | 3.21 | 7.8 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 6.1 |
Role: #2/#3 Starter
Risk: High – Not all of Mecias’ pitches have returned to pre-surgery levels. Additionally, he still needs to add some strength and velocity for his arsenal to come together.
Summary: Mecias exploded onto the prospect scene in early 2013, but just as he was becoming an established name, he blew out his elbow and was forced to have Tommy John surgery. Mecias reemerged this summer, and it was a gradual comeback as the Phillies eased him back into pitching. Mecias’ arsenal revolves around his changeup. At its best, his changeup has good deception and late arm side run. Before the injury, the pitch was generally referred to being in the plus to plus plus range, and it has returned for the most part after the injury, but still shows rust. Mecias’ fastball is mostly 89-92, but has gotten to 95. The Phillies have been working with him this offseason to add muscle, and most evaluators think that he can sit with plus fastball velocity with the added strength. Mecias has experimented with both a slider and curveball, and they can blend together, but most people think there is an average pitch in there. He can throw strikes, but does not have command yet. The changeup alone gives Mecias a lot of upside, and with just an average fastball/breaking ball combo, he could be a back end starter. If everything comes back from surgery and he can add some velocity, Mecias could be a dominant starter. Mecias should be far enough from surgery in 2015 that the Phillies won’t have many limitations on him. He should open 2015 in the Clearwater rotation.
Previous Rank: 11
ETA: 2017
5. Zach Eflin – RHP (Profile)
DOB: April 8, 1994 (20)
H/W: 6’4″ 200lb
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Drafted in the 1.5 round (#33 overall) in the 2012 draft by the Padres ($1,200,000 bonus). Traded on December 18, 2014 to the Dodgers along with C Yasmani Grandal and RHP Joe Wieland for OF Matt Kemp and C Tim Federowicz. Traded on December 19, 2014 to the Phillies with LHP Tom Windle for SS Jimmy Rollins.
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
LE (A+) | 24 | 24 | 10-7 | 128.0 | 3.80 | 9.7 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 6.5 |
Role: #3 Starter
Risk: Medium – Eflin’s pitches give him a fairly high floor, but he will need to continue his success against more advanced hitters and work to develop an average breaking ball.
Summary: Eflin represents the best chance for an impact prospect among the Phillies’ trade returns. Eflin has a large frame, and he uses it to bring a fastball at 92-93, touching 94, however he touched as high as 97 in a start this year (h/t to Ronit Shah). The frame and the velocity spike have made some speculate that Eflin could sit at a higher velocity. He complements the 4-seam fastball with a 2 seam fastball at 89-91 that he uses to generate ground balls. Eflin’s best pitch is his plus changeup that combines good late fade with solid deception. His slider is still a work in progress and has average potential, but it lacks good break. Eflin has good control of his pitches, but has been more successful at generating weak contact than missing bats. If everything stays static, then Eflin is more of a back end, innings eating starter. If he can make the slider consistent and mix it in with the other two pitches, while polishing up his command, he could be a low end mid-rotation starter. The pipe dream is that the fastball will tick up more to 93-95, that he will start missing bats. Eflin will open the year in Reading, in what should be a stacked starting rotation.
Previous Rank: N/A
ETA: 2016
6. Jesse Biddle – LHP (Profile)
DOB: October 22, 1991 (23)
H/W: 6’5″ 220lb
B/T: L/L
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round (#27 overall) in the 2010 draft by the Phillies ($1,160,000 bonus)
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
GCL (Rk) | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 2.0 | 4.50 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 13.5 |
FSL (A+) | 2 | 2 | 2-0 | 10.0 | 0.90 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 5.4 | 8.1 |
REA (AA) | 16 | 16 | 3-10 | 82.1 | 5.03 | 8.5 | 1.2 | 4.8 | 8.7 |
Role: #3/#4 Starter
Risk: High – Despite the non-baseball injury setbacks, Biddle still needs to make strides in both his control and delivery consistency.
Summary: Biddle is one of the most divisive prospects in the Phillies system. His critics point to his numbers of the past two seasons and see a player who should not be anywhere near a top 10. But whichever side you fall on, the consensus is that Biddle has been very unlucky of late. In addition to some more “normal” injuries, Biddle was hit on the head with a grapefruit sized piece of hail, and the resulting concussion greatly affected the middle of his season. In the starts following the concussion, his fastball was 89-91, his curveball sailed, his changeup disappeared, and he had no control of any of his pitches. Over the time period (22 innings), Biddle allowed 6 HRs and 16 walks. If we separate those 5 starts out, here is Biddle’s season:
G | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | |
Outside of Injury | 14 | 72.1 | 2.99 | 7.0 | 0.7 | 4.4 | 9.6 |
After Injury | 5 | 22.0 | 9.82 | 10.6 | 2.5 | 6.5 | 6.1 |
The results are a bit more in line with what we expected from Biddle, especially since he walked 3 in his last inning of the year after injuring his quad. When healthy, Biddle’s fastball was 91-93, touching 94, and he was able to stay on top of the curveball and changeup. This gives him three pitches in the above average range, with the potential that all of them can get towards plus. There is still plenty of work he needs to do in terms of commanding his pitches, but being healthy and comfortable in his delivery will help his consistency. I am not worried about him mentally, and he is one of the hardest workers in the Phillies system. Given the AA depth and his disastrous trips there, I could see the Phillies starting him in Lehigh Valley this year. He is already on the 40 man roster, so he could see a late season appearance in Philadelphia if it all goes well.
Previous Rank: 2
ETA: 2016
7. Roman Quinn – CF (Profile)
DOB: May 14, 1993 (21)
H/W: 5’10” 170lb
B/T: S/R
Acquired: Drafted in 2nd round (#66 overall) in the 2011 draft by the Phillies ($775,000 bonus)
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
CLW (A+) | 88 | 382 | 7 | 32 | 9.4 | 20.9 | .257 | .343 | .370 |
SCO (AFL) | 24 | 110 | 2 | 14 | 14.5 | 14.5 | .250 | .361 | .359 |
Role: Solid Regular
Risk: Medium – A lot of evaluators question the impact of Quinn’s bat due to a light hit tool. However, the defense in center field could be impactful on its own, and he will open the year in AA, only a short trip away from the majors.
Summary: After missing the end of 2013 due to a wrist injury and then tearing his Achilles, Quinn’s prospect status was teetering a year ago. It has been quite a comeback for Quinn. A move to center field has left Quinn more relaxed, and his offense has responded. Quinn’s 80 grade speed is almost all the way back, and it aids him in the outfield where he can cover lots of ground. At the plate, scouts continue to like his left handed swing more than his right handed swing (despite numeric results to the opposite). A lot of scouts wonder if the hit tool is only below average. Quinn does have sneaky power due to good strength, but the lack of plane to his swing might not get him enough loft. Quinn went to the AFL with the goal of working on his approach, and the initial results were very good. The defensive transition has reshaped the narrative on Quinn; at shortstop the question was whether his bat could overcome his defensive deficiencies, yet in center field the question is more whether the glove can overcome the concerns with the bat. Quinn will go to Reading in 2015, and I am looking for his bat to take another step forward.
Previous Rank: 7
ETA: 2016
8. Kelly Dugan – RF (Profile)
DOB: September 18, 1990 (24)
H/W: 6’3″ 215lb
B/T: L/R
Acquired: Drafted in the 2nd round (#75 overall) in the 2009 draft by the Phillies ($485,000 bonus)
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
REA (AA) | 76 | 290 | 5 | 1 | 9.7 | 19.3 | .296 | .383 | .435 |
Role: Solid Regular
Risk: Medium – The largest worry with Dugan is whether he can actually stay healthy for a full year, something he has been unable to do. He has hit at every level and continues to make large strides with the bat.
Summary: In 2013 Dugan put together his the best statistical season of his career, but a 2.2% BB% after reaching AA was a glaring problem. Dugan answered the questions about the low walk rate in 2014 with a 9.7% BB% while seeing his strikeout rate drop to its lowest percentage since 2011. His power numbers did drop off in 2014 as the Phillies focused on removing some of the uppercut in his swing, adding the ability to line the ball to all fields. The results show up in the numbers in terms of contact type and location of balls hit:
G | LF | CF | RF | GB | OFB | LD | |
April-June | 23 | 7.40% | 16.70% | 22.20% | 64.80% | 22.20% | 7.40% |
July | 30 | 15.50% | 21.40% | 17.90% | 46.40% | 32.10% | 19.10% |
August | 23 | 20.00% | 21.70% | 15.00% | 46.70% | 30.00% | 21.70% |
Dugan should be able to add this all-fields approach to his ability to hit for power, making him a more complete player. Outside of hitting, Dugan is a solid right fielder with good route running and a plus arm. I really like Dugan’s ability to make contact, and while none of his tools are flashy, he does a lot of things very well. Dugan should start the year in AAA, and he is already on the 40 man roster, so a midseason call-up is possible, with a September call-up almost definite.
Previous Rank: 5
ETA: 2015
9. Deivi Grullon – C (Profile)
DOB: February 17, 1996 (19)
H/W: 6’1″ 180lb
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Signed as an international free agent on July 2, 2012 by the Phillies ($575,000 bonus)
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
WPT (NYPL) | 53 | 199 | 0 | 3 | 4.5 | 19.6 | .225 | .268 | .283 |
LKW (A-) | 24 | 81 | 1 | 0 | 3.7 | 16.0 | .237 | .275 | .342 |
CLW (A+) | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | .200 | .200 | .200 |
Role: First Division Regular
Risk: High – Grullon’s defensive profile could carry him to the majors, but his bat is going to need to advance in order for him to be an impact major leaguer.
Summary: Grullon is an important reminder that stats don’t make prospect status. In 2014, Grullon had more games behind the plate than any 18 year old and was second in games caught among all players 19 or younger. That is an incredible workload for a young player, and Grullon’s bat really took a hit. Behind the plate, Grullon brings an absolute cannon 80 grade arm, and he might be too aggressive with it. Grullon will attempt to pick off and throw out any base runner who flinches, and he was deadly with back picks to first. The aggression causes some harm to his receiving, but everything should slow down as he matures. In the end, he could pair an 80 arm with a 60 glove; add that to his great onfield leadership, and it should be enough to carry him to the majors. At the plate, Grullon’s profile is more quiet, and his bat could be average with below average power, but it does lagging developmentally behind the glove. Grullon will be asked to shoulder a full load again next year for Lakewood, where the bat might not shine. Ultimately, whether Grullon is just good or special will come down to the bat, but the glove could carry him far.
Previous Rank: 8
ETA: 2018
10. Carlos Tocci – CF (Profile)
DOB: August 23, 1995 (19)
H/W: 6’2″ 160lb
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Signed as an international free agent on August 23, 2011 by the Phillies ($759,000 bonus).
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
LKW (A-) | 125 | 538 | 2 | 10 | 4.6 | 17.8 | .242 | .297 | .324 |
Role: First Division Regular
Risk: High – Despite some steps forward in his power and strength in 2014, Tocci has the same problems as the past. Tocci is a very good defender in center field, but he needs to add more strength for his bat to work as in the majors.
Summary: On the surface, the numbers continue to look poor for Tocci, but 2014 saw him double his ISO and hit his first two professional home runs. In July, Tocci put up his most impressive month as a pro, hitting .293/.339/.448 over 28 games, before cratering in August as he got tired. The Phillies are working with Tocci to add more muscle this offseason, and if Tocci can make some incremental improvements, his natural feel for hitting will show up more in his stats.
Unlike other players who lack power, Tocci has some loft to his swing, so when he starts to hit the ball harder it will carry to the gaps. Adding more strength will help more than just Tocci’s hitting; he has plus plus raw speed, but he does not have the lower body strength right now to accelerate quickly, causing his stolen base numbers to be low. In the outfield, Tocci continues to be an outstanding center fielder with good routes and range, and his plus arm is a weapon. It is still going to be a slow developmental road for Tocci, but he should move to Clearwater in 2015. Tocci’s defense can carry him most of the way to the majors, but he is going to need to hit at some point before he can get there.
Previous Rank: 4
ETA: 2017
11. Ben Lively – RHP (Profile)
DOB: March 5, 1992 (23)
H/W: 6’4″ 190lb
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Drafted in the 4th round (#135 overall) in the 2013 draft by the Reds ($350,000 bonus). Traded to the Phillies on December 31, 2014 for OF Marlon Byrd
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
BAK (A+) | 13 | 13 | 10-1 | 79.0 | 2.28 | 6.5 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 10.8 |
PNS (AA) | 13 | 13 | 3-6 | 72.0 | 3.88 | 7.5 | 0.9 | 4.5 | 9.5 |
Role: #3/#4 Starter
Risk: Medium – There are some concerns about how well Lively’s arsenal will play against advanced hitters, however he has the basic pieces to keep hitters off balance, which gives him an excellent chance to stick in the rotation.
Summary: Lively, the return from Cincinatti for Marlon Byrd, was the breakout prospect for the Reds in 2014. The numbers, especially in the hitter-friendly Cal League, hinted at a pitcher with dominant stuff. Instead, Lively brings more of an average arsenal to the table. His fastball is 90-93, and he can get to 95 if needed. Outside the fastball, his best pitch is his slider, which is above average to plus. He will also use a curveball and changeup that rate out as having average future potential. Lively’s delivery is a bit unconventional, and it causes the ball disappear from sight in the middle of the delivery (Fangraph’s Eno Sarris breaks the whole delivery down here). This adds a lot of deception to Lively’s delivery, but it also has some scouts worrying how the control will hold up in this motion and whether major league hitters will be able to figure out the deception. Right now, Lively has good command of his pitches and can pound the strike zone with all four pitches. If the deception continues to deceive hitters, and he can keep throwing strikes, Lively could be a mid-rotation starter. The optimistic outcome is that he is more of a #4 starter who will be able to shoulder a large innings burden. There are some evaluators that think he is best suited for a bullpen role long term, but he would need to fail as a starter for the Phillies to explore that option. Lively should join fellow trade acquisitions Windle and Eflin in the Reading rotation.
Previous Rank: N/A
ETA: 2016
12. Tom Windle – LHP (Profile)
DOB: March 10, 1992 (23)
H/W: 6’4″ 215lb
B/T: L/L
Acquired: Drafted in the 2nd round (#56 overall) in the 2013 draft by the Dodgers ($986,500 bonus). Traded to the Phillies on December 19, 2014 along with RHP Zach Eflin for SS Jimmy Rollins.
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
RC (A+) | 26 | 25 | 12-8 | 139.1 | 4.26 | 9.5 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 7.2 |
Role: #3/#4 Starter
Risk: Medium – Windle has a good base to become a solid starter with his fastball and slider, however the concerns about his control and delivery will cause the whispers about a possible move to the bullpen to linger.
Summary: In many ways, Windle is still the same guy he was when the Dodgers took him in the second round last year. His fastball sits at 89-93 and can get up to 94. Some people love his slider and think it is a current plus pitch, others have it more at above average future potential. His changeup shows average potential, but a year later it is still inconsistent. His delivery adds deception, but the consequence is inconsistent control and a landing that makes some wonder about the stress he is putting on his arm. All of this points to a future that might end up in the bullpen, where his fastball has shown it can tick up to true plus or better velocity. However, there is upside here; Windle has now only been a starting pitcher for two years now (he was a reliever his first two years at Minnesota) and so there is still time for him to add feel for the changeup. If he can surpass the potential delivery issues, he is a lefty with two 55 or better pitches with the chance to have a 50 changeup – that is a #4 starter. What some are hoping for is that he fills out a little more and the velocity goes up a bit, the slider gets more consistency, and you are looking at 2 60s and a 50 or better, and his ceiling is more mid-rotation. Windle will start 2015 in Reading, where he will need more polish and time than rotation mates Eflin or Lively.
Previous Rank: N/A
ETA: 2016
13. Matt Imhof – LHP (Profile)
DOB: October 26, 1993 (21)
H/W: 6’5″ 220lb
B/T: L/L
Acquired: Drafted in the 2nd round (#47 overall) in the 2014 draft by the Phillies ($1,187,900 bonus).
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
GCL (Rk) | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 3.0 | 0.00 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 |
WPT (SS) | 3 | 3 | 1-0 | 12.0 | 0.75 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 8.2 |
LKW (A-) | 7 | 7 | 0-2 | 27.1 | 4..28 | 10.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 8.9 |
Role: #3/#4 Starter
Risk: Medium – Imhof’s numbers outpaced his stuff in college, but the stuff may not be enough to dominate in pro ball. However, his fastball command and mix of pitches give him a very good chance to stick in a rotation.
Summary: The Phillies’ second round pick in the 2014 draft, Imhof’s stuff has always lagged behind his results, but his numbers have been staggering. The big lefty’s fastball velocity is rather pedestrian at 89-91, but he can get it to 93-94. At the lower velocity, the pitch has good movement, and he has also shown the ability to command it to both sides of the plate. Some evaluators liked his curveball more than his changeup coming out of college, but he has shown growth in the feel for his changeup since he signed. All of Imhof’s pitches play up due to the deception inherent in his delivery that makes it hard for the batter to pick up the ball. Imhof was able to dominate early in pro ball, purely by just using his fastball, but the Phillies have been forcing him to use his secondary pitches more. His current arsenal points to a fast moving back of the rotation starter, and Imhof should start the year in Clearwater. However, Imhof was one of the youngest college juniors and will play the whole year at age 2,1 so there might be a little more velocity in his big frame.
Previous Rank: N/A
ETA: 2016
14. Victor Arano – RHP (Profile)
DOB: February 7, 1995 (20)
H/W: 6’2″ 200lb
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Signed as an international free agent on April 4, 2013 by the Dodgers. Traded to the Phillies on August 28, 2014 along with 2B Jesmuel Valentin for RHP Roberto Hernandez.
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
GL (A-) | 22 | 15 | 4-7 | 86.0 | 4.08 | 9.2 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 8.7 |
Role: #3/#4 Starter
Risk: Medium – Arano lacks big upside, but he has an advanced feel for pitching for his age, and the control of a solid 3 pitch arsenal make him safer to reach his ceiling than most 20 year olds.
Summary: Arano is a player I have been eyeing Arano in the Dodgers system since he popped up at #10 on Baseball Prospectus’ Top 10 a year ago. I was very surprised when he was included in the trade for Hernandez. Despite his youth, Arano does not have lots of physical projection left, but his feel and stuff is already well above his age. His fastball is 91-93 in the rotation, but he has been 95+ in a relief role. His breaking ball goes from slider to curveball, depending on velocity and release, and evaluators’ opinions will range from below average to plus depending on which breaking ball they see. He is starting to show a feel for the changeup, and it could settle in at above average. With a good breaking ball Arano looks like he could be a #3 starter, and on a bad day he looks more like a reliever. The truth is somewhere in the middle, and his likely profile is as a #4 starter, who could get to the majors very quickly. Arano will pitch 2015 as a 20 year old and should join a good Clearwater rotation to start the year.
Previous Rank: N/A
ETA: 2017
The next group here is a pair of GCL Phillies who showed big growth in 2014. In many ways, they contrast each other, with one bringing future projection and the other current stuff. Both have good upside, but are a long time away from contributing in the majors.
15. Franklyn Kilome – RHP (Profile)
DOB: June 25, 1995 (19)
H/W: 6’6″ 195lb
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Signed as an international free agent in January 2013 by the Phillies ($40,000 bonus).
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
GCL (Rk) | 11 | 8 | 3-1 | 40.1 | 3.12 | 8.0 | 0.4 | 2.5 | 5.6 |
Role: #2/#3 Starter
Risk: High – Kilome still has a lot of filling out to do to max out his frame and potential. If he doesn’t, his ceiling might not be too high, but his solid delivery and his ability to generate ground balls give him something to fall back on.
Summary: I first heard about Kilome this spring. It was mentioned to me secondhand that the Phillies had a kid they were bringing stateside who was already up to 94 but could get to 98. Kilome not only didn’t disappoint, but he was a pleasant surprise in the GCL this year. The fastball was mostly 90-92, but he touched 95 towards the end of year. The regular fastball has good downward plane from his long frame, but he creates something special when he combines that frame with a heavy sinker that comes in at 88-90. He can pound the strike zone with the sinker and hitters have little choice but to hit it into the ground. Kilome has begun to show a feel for a curveball and a changeup, and the curveball could be a plus pitch. Filling out his projectable frame could see Kilome’s fastball reach as high as plus plus long term. His delivery is nice and easy for a man of his size, and he has shown the ability to control all of his pitches. Kilome might have the most upside of any pitcher in the Phillies organization, and it’s not a stretch to say he has #2 upside if he can get to a 70 fastball and keep the heaviness to his arsenal. Given his polish, Kilome could jump to Lakewood, but the number of pitchers at his level, coupled with an effort to keep his total innings down, could land him in Extended Spring Training before going to Williamsport.
Previous Rank: UR
ETA: 2019
16. Elniery Garcia – LHP (Profile)
DOB: December 24, 1994 (20)
H/W: 6’0″ 155lb
B/T: L/L
Acquired: Signed as an international free agent on December 9, 2011 by the Phillies.
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
GCL (Rk) | 7 | 4 | 2-2 | 26.0 | 2.08 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 8.0 |
WPT (SS) | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 4.2 | 5.79 | 11.6 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 9.6 |
Role: #3/#4 Starter
Risk: High – Garcia lacks big time stuff to fall back on if he can’t continue to develop his pitches, but he does have advanced feel for his secondary pitches, which should be enough to make him interesting from the left side.
Summary: While Kilome brings big upside and projection, Garcia brings more actualized stuff and an advanced feel for pitching. In 2014, Garcia took a big step forward, especially with his fastball. Right now the pitch will comes in at 89-91, touching 92. This makes it more fringe average velocity from the left side, but Garcia can command the pitch as well as give it movement, which makes it play higher than the velocity suggest. Garcia’s best pitch is a plus swing and miss curveball, however he is still inconsistent with the pitch. His changeup is less developed than the other two pitches but shows solid potential. Garcia has a slight build, so some question his durability and whether he can add any velocity his fastball. Given his feel for pitching and present control, Garcia is the most likely of the GCL pitchers to jump right to Lakewood. Garcia’s upside is a mid-rotation starter if he can continue to make strides like he did this past season.
Previous Rank: UR
ETA: 2019
After six straight pitchers, we find a group of high upside, but high risk outfielders. Their athleticism and power are reminiscent of some of the classic Phillies high risk draft picks. The payoff on any of them could be huge, but there is a decent chance none of them ever make the majors.
17. Jose Pujols – RF (Profile)
DOB: September 29, 1995 (19)
H/W: 6’3′
B/T: 175
Acquired: Signed as an international free agent on July 2, 2012 ($540,000 bonus)
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
GCL (Rk) | 41 | 166 | 5 | 1 | 7.2 | 32.5 | .232 | .291 | .411 |
WPT (SS) | 16 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 33.9 | .213 | .226 | .295 |
Role: First Division Regular
Risk: Extreme – Pujols’ power is special, but his approach is abysmal. If he cannot put himself in a position to make contact, it is going to be tough for him to put up numbers in A-ball, let alone in the majors.
Summary: If you like huge tools and incredible upside, then Jose Pujols is the prospect for you! Everyone who sees Pujols raves about his power, and for good reason. Pujols might have the most power in the Phillies system, and he still has room to add more muscle and strength. He generates his power with incredible bat speed, with the ball seemingly jumps off his bat. The question has always been about how much contact Pujols will make. His swing can get a bit long and disjointed, but the Phillies have gone a long way in cleaning it up and removing the distinct uppercut he had before he signed. Pujols also has a good feel for manipulating the bat to make contact, and right now he can make contact even when he is fooled by offspeed pitches. The real problem is his approach. Pujols will swing at almost anything and often doesn’t have a plan at the plate, which puts him in a poor hitting position. Despite the concerns about his hit tool, I am encouraged by the strides that Pujols has made so far. In 2014 he was able to go from an all pull approach to showing power and contact to all fields. On defense, Pujols’ routes in right field can be an adventure, but he is an average runner, and he has an arm that will flash plus or better. Given the incremental improvements he has made and flashes of a better approach, I thinks Pujols is starting to put it all together. There is a ton of risk here, but the potential payoff is extremely special. Depending on his showing in Spring Training, Pujols could be going to either Extended Spring Training or Lakewood, with a trip to Williamsport possible in both scenarios.
http://instagram.com/p/ru-V8zL4fg/
Previous Rank: 17
ETA: 2019
18. Dylan Cozens – RF/LF (Profile)
DOB: May 31, 1994
H/W: 6’6″ 235lb
B/T: L/L
Acquired: Drafted in the 2nd round (#77 overall) in the 2012 draft by the Phillies.
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
LKW (A-) | 132 | 556 | 16 | 23 | 7.2 | 26.4 | .248 | .303 | .415 |
Role: Solid Regular
Risk: High – A bad approach and natural swing holes are a difficult thing for any player to overcome. Cozens brings enough power to the table to potentially hit his way out of a tough profile, but it will not an easy road.
Summary: It is really easy to see why there is always buzz around Dylan Cozens. Cozens comes in at a gigantic 6’6” 235lb, with most of that weight in muscle, and he will only be 20 years old on opening day. His strength and long levers give him plus to plus plus raw power, and so far Cozens has been able to impressively show that power in games (including a monster home run off of Lucas Giolito). But, as is to be expected with a player of Cozens’ size, there is a lot of swing and miss at the plate. While neither his bat speed and hand-eye coordination are a negative, they are not special enough to close all the holes in his swing, and so he is going to need to outhit them. Up to this point, Cozens has done a decent job keeping his head above water, but he will need the approach to tighten up enough to bring the walk rate back up towards pre-2014 levels and keep the strikeout rate from going too much over 25%. His bat is so important because of the rest of his profile. On defense, he has an above average arm and below average speed, and he is fairly athletic. Right now he can handle right field, though he has been bumped to left by some of the better fielders in the Phillies’ system. However, his outfield routes can sometimes be a bit adventurous. Despite his stolen base numbers, I have never seen an average speed time for Cozens, and given his size, he is likely to get slightly slower over time. If he can stick in an outfield corner and clean up the approach at the plate, Cozens can be a major league regular at a time when power is rare. The danger that some see is that an eventual move to first base or a poor approach will put him in a position where he just won’t be able to hit at a high enough level to make himself valuable.
Previous Rank: 12
ETA: 2018
19. Cord Sandberg – RF (Profile)
DOB: January 2, 1995 (20)
H/W: 6’3″ 215lb
B/T: L/L
Acquired: Drafted in the 3rd round (#89 overall) in the 2013 draft ($775,000 bonus)
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
WPT (SS) | 66 | 283 | 6 | 8 | 3.9 | 19.8 | .235 | .267 | .345 |
Role: First Division Regular
Risk: Extreme – The individual tools look special for Sandberg, but his inexperience is showing in his approach at the plate and pitch recognition, and they in turn prevent his natural abilities from showing on the field. He doesn’t need to overcome these issues in 2015, but he does need to begin to show real progress.
Summary: It looked like coming out of Extended Spring Training it looked like Sandberg was poised for breakout, especially when he started off in Williamsport by hitting .297/.348/.453 in 15 June games. It went downhill from there as Sandberg was forced to deal with pitchers pitching him backwards and throwing the most advanced breaking balls he’d seen so far. The good news is that Sandberg’s ceiling and projection are all still in place, it’s just a riskier and longer road ahead. The Phillies worked with him late in the year to start developing opposite field contact, so he could go with pitches the other way, as almost all of his contact has been to his pull side so far.
His swing is real easy, and he can sting the ball when he makes good contact. Sandberg is an average runner, but he gets going fairly well and uses it to run great routes in the outfield, and as a former quarterback, he has the plus arm you would expect. Sandberg has a frame to dream on and a high ceiling. A full year of at bats in Lakewood will go a long way to just getting him the reps he needs to start putting his raw abilities to work. Given the Lakewood ballpark’s tendency to suppress offense and Sandberg’s rawness, I wouldn’t bet on 2015 being a breakout year, but it should be a foundational year before his stock leaps forward.
http://instagram.com/p/rksnbWr4Yr/
Previous Rank: 10
ETA: 2019
In many ways, Ricardo Pinto should be with Garcia and Kilome, but he is a bit further behind them when it comes to a complete arsenal and future projection.
20. Ricardo Pinto – RHP (Profile)
DOB: January 20, 1994 (21)
H/W: 6’0 165lb
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Signed as an international free agent on December 28, 2011 by the Phillies.
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
WPT (SS) | 9 | 9 | 1-5 | 47.0 | 2.11 | 6.9 | 0.8 | 2.9 | 9.2 |
Role: #3/#4 Starter
Risk: High – Pinto is still missing a third usable pitch next to go with his fastball and changeup, and his track record of stateside success is limited so far. Once the slider starts to come along, he could move very quickly.
Summary: Ricardo Pinto seemingly came out of nowhere in 2014, as the Phillies brought the diminutive RHP directly from the VSL to the New York Penn League. An injury got his season off to a late start, but after that his year took off. Pinto brings a fastball that is mostly 91-94, but has gotten as high as 96. He pairs it with a changeup that the Williamsport staff raved about, and it has been described as above average to plus depending on who you talk to. The slider is still a work in progress, but it can flash average potential. Pinto has earned a reputation for just attacking batters with his stuff in the zone, and up to now he has been able to miss bats. He is relatively compactly built and is unlikely to put on more muscle and velocity. Given his advanced feel and the fact that he will be 21 on opening day, there is a chance that Pinto will skip over Lakewood and go right to Clearwater. Either way, Pinto has enough stuff to flash mid rotation upside on a good day, and on a bad day, still make you think he could be very good in a bullpen role with the fastball-changeup combination.
Previous Rank: UR
ETA: 2018
21. Zach Green – 3B/1B (Profile)
DOB: March 7, 1994 (21)
H/W: 6’3″ 210lb
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Drafted in the 3rd round (#125 Overall) in the 2012 draft by the Phillies ($420,000 bonus)
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
LKW (A-) | 84 | 358 | 6 | 7 | 6.7 | 18.2 | .268 | .316 | .402 |
Role: Solid Regular
Risk: High – There are still some questions on Green’s approach, and the injury has reopened the debate over whether Green will need to permanently move across the diamond to first base.
Summary: It was a weird year for the 2012 third round pick. A year after setting the Williamsport home run record, according to his full year stats, his power dropped off sharply, as did his walk and strikeout rates. But when you just look at just his second half, you see that he hit .282/.322/.443 over the second half of the year. While this points to a big drop in walk rate, it shows that a lot of the power is still there and the drop in strikeout rate might be for real. The cause for all of this weirdness was a problem with one leg being longer than another one, which was causing back and hip problems. The problem has been corrected with orthotics, but the missed time certainly did not help his season. Green played first base for Lakewood after returning from injury due to the presence of Mitch Walding (who is a good defender at the hot corner), and the Phillies’ effort to let him rest his injured hip and stay on the field. Green has all of the things he needs to be able to stick at third base. While some question his range, his arm is plus and his glove is at least average. Coaches praise Green’s work ethic and think he can overcome many of his issues. At the plate he can have problems with offspeed pitches, and his bat speed is nothing that is going to make jaws drop. He has plus or better raw power, and he has been able to periodically tap into it. Currently though, all of that power is to the pull side, as only 2 of his 19 home runs over the past two seasons have been to the opposite field. At third base, Green can be a solid regular, and possibly a bit higher if he can really tap into his power. At first base there would be a lot of pressure on the bat to get to its ceiling in order for him to be a regular. This next year in Clearwater will go a long way to determining his profile, but the key will be his ability to stay on the field all year long.
Previous Rank: 16
ETA: 2017
22. Jesmuel Valentin – 2B (Profile)
DOB: May 12, 1994 (20)
H/W: 5’9″ 180 lb
B/T: S/R
Acquired: Drafted in the 1.5 round (#51 overall) in 2012 draft by the Dodgers ($984,700 bonus). Traded on August 16, 2014 along with RHP Victor Arano to the Phillies for RHP Roberto Hernandez.
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
GL (A-) | 180 | 462 | 7 | 24 | 8.2 | 15.6 | .280 | .349 | .430 |
CLW (A+) | 12 | 49 | 0 | 1 | 6.1 | 12.2 | .205 | .255 | .250 |
Role: Solid Regular
Risk: Medium – Despite his lack of high minors experience, Valentin’s versatility gives him a lot more room for error than most second base prospects.
Summary: When it was announced that Valentin would be the first of two PTBNL for Roberto Hernandez. the trade was already leaning in the Phillies favor. Valentin brings a lot of potential versatility to the field as he can play nearly every position outside of pitcher and catcher. However, that versatility may not be needed as Valentin has the profile to be a second baseman going forward. Valentin is a switch hitter, but is better from the left handed side of the plate (his OPS was .162 higher vs RHPs). His power potential is below average, but he makes hard contact to the gaps. While the 25 steals might point to a speedy baserunner, he is more of an average runner that has good instincts. The hitting abilities sum up Valentin’s profile overall; he likely doesn’t have a single tool that is above average, but he makes up for that with very good baseball instincts, starting with a very mature approach at the plate. Unlike some players on this list who are fairly raw (and you wonder whether they will get the most out of their abilities), Valentin has shown that he can maximize his profile. In most cases I am very hesitant of second basemen, because the profile doesn’t lend itself well to a major league bench if the player is not a starter. Average arm strength makes it unlikely that Valentin can play third base or shortstop over any extended period of time, but he can fill in at those positions better than Cesar Hernandez can. In addition to the left side of the infield, Valentin can play first base and both outfield corners. Although the bat doesn’t play at any of them, he has enough versatility to stick on a major league roster. Valentin will enter 2015 as the best second base prospect in the Phillies’ system. He should open 2015 in Clearwater, but he could move quickly up to Reading and free up space at second base for Andrew Pullin
Previous Rank: N/A
ETA: 2017
23. Andrew Knapp – C (Profile)
DOB: November 9, 1991 (23)
H/W: 6’1″ 190lb
B/T: S/R
Acquired: Drafted in the 2nd round (#53 overall) in the 2013 draft by the Phillies ($1,033,100 bonus).
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
LKW (A-) | 75 | 314 | 5 | 3 | 8.6 | 22.6 | .290 | .354 | .438 |
CLW (A+) | 23 | 90 | 1 | 1 | 5.6 | 28.9 | .157 | .222 | .205 |
Role: Solid Regular
Risk: High – Knapp will need to prove he can stick behind the plate, and he still has a lot of work to do since returning in early 2014 from Tommy John surgery.
Summary: It was a fairly static year for Knapp in 2014 as he returned slowly from Tommy John surgery, first just hitting and playing DH, and then by slowly easing into catching. He got off to a very slow start with the bat in Clearwater before he was demoted to Lakewood. He didn’t get off to a great start in Lakewood, but after the South Atlantic All-Star Game (62 games) he hit .297/.359/.462 for the Blueclaws. He was much better as a left handed batter (.309/.371/.487) than a right handed one (.250/.317/.337), which is consistent with his results in 2013. Either way, the bat is more than enough behind the plate, where the hit tool could play close to average with room to be a little better. The power, almost entirely from the left handed side, is in the below average range, and there will be more doubles to the gaps than large home run numbers. The question is whether he can do enough defensively to stick at catcher. Behind the plate, the arm has not returned all the way yet, but the Phillies think it will come all the way back to above average. Knapp’s footwork isn’t great, and he still is raw on his receiving. This keeps him from being a lock to stay behind the plate, and if he has to return to the outfield it is hard to see his bat putting up numbers to be more than a 4th/5th outfielder. Despite the fact that Knapp will be 23 on opening day, the Phillies are content to take their time with him to let him gain the skills he needs behind the plate. If it all works out, Knapp could be an offensive catcher with average defensive skills behind the plate, and that would be well worth the wait.
Previous Rank: 13
ETA: 2017
24. Joely Rodriguez – LHP (Profile)
DOB: November 14, 1991 (23)
H/W: 6’1″ 200lb
B/T: L/L
Acquired: Signed as an international free agent on March 25, 2009 by the Pirates. Traded on December 10, 2014 to the Phillies for LHP Antonio Bastardo.
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
ALT (AA) | 30 | 21 | 6-11 | 134.0 | 4.84 | 10.1 | 0.7 | 2.9 | 4.9 |
SCO (AFL) | 7 | 7 | 3-0 | 22.2 | 2.38 | 10.7 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 8.7 |
Role: #4 Starter
Risk: Medium – Although Rodriguez is coming off a down 2014 regular season, he flashed a higher ceiling this fall in a small sample size. He will start the year in AAA so he is right on the cusp of the majors.
Summary: Rodriguez was the return for left handed reliever Antonio Bastardo, and at first glance it is hard not to see another Bastardo in Rodriguez. Much like Bastardo, Rodriguez brings a fastball that sits 91-93 and can reach up to 95, though in short stints he has been clocked as high as 97. He adds a low 80s slider and a changeup in the same velocity range. What gets scouts excited and is mentioned in each scouting report I have seen, is that everything in the arsenal moves. The result has been huge ground ball rates (57.3% in 2014 regular season), but low strikeout rates (12.7%). However, Rodriguez seems to have taken a step forward in the Arizona Fall League, which he then carried forward into winter league. Under the tutelage of IronPigs pitching coach (who was the Scottsdale pitching coach), Rodriguez attacked batters more, and the results were impressive. His GB% declined a bit (down to 51.1%), but his strikeout rate skyrocketed up to 21.7%, at the same time his walks also slightly declined. The lack of dominating secondary pitches likely caps his upside around a #4 starter, but the Phillies really liked what they saw in fall league, and if Burris can coax more out of the slider there might be a bit more upside here. If Rodriguez is unable to be successful in the rotation, the bullpen fall back is still pretty exciting, with the fastball possibly sitting more in the mid-90s and the two secondary pitches keeping hitters off balance in the short stints. He likely will never reach the strikeout rates of Bastardo, but he may be able to be 90% of the pitcher that he was traded for. Rodriguez won’t be topping any Phillies prospect lists or heading up their rotation, but given that he cost a year of a solid left handed reliever the potential return here is something to get excited about.
Previous Rank: N/A
ETA: 2015
25. Aaron Altherr – CF (Profile)
DOB: January 14, 1991 (24)
H/W: 6’5″ 220lb
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Drafted in the 9th round (#287 overall) in the 2009 draft by the Phillies ($150,000 bonus).
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
CLW (A+) | 7 | 33 | 0 | 1 | 15.2 | 24.2 | .250 | .364 | .429 |
REA (AA) | 120 | 492 | 14 | 12 | 5.3 | 22.4 | .236 | .287 | .399 |
PHI (MLB) | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 40.0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
Role: Second Division Regular
Risk: Medium – Altherr is a major leaguer based on his skillset, but to be a regular of some sort he will need to make improvements to his approach and close some holes in his swing.
Summary: There is little doubt that Altherr has a major league role – the question has been how big that role is. Altherr has proven over the past few years that he can handle center field, and the lanky center fielder seemingly glides with plus speed around the outfield. The problems for him is his bat. Some of his poor 2014 can be explained by a wrist injury he suffered in the fall of 2013 that needed offseason surgery, but the injury does not explain all of the negatives. The swing itself is fine, but his long arms add length to the swing path, which consequently opens up holes in his swing. This, coupled with a questionable approach and not great pitch recognition, leads to a lot of questions about how much contact Altherr will make. The questionable hit tool hurts one of his biggest strengths – his plus raw power. If Altherr can make enough contact to have the power show up in games, then he could be a major league regular in center field as long as his range holds up. More likely though he can be somewhere between a platoon and solid 4th outfielder. This past year saw a big drop in Altherr’s stock, and it has been an up and down minor league career for Altherr. A good year in 2015 will put him close to a longer stint in the majors. Given the recent minor league free agent signings by the Phillies, Altherr probably will at least start back in Reading, likely moving to right field because of Roman Quinn. A good start in AA could get him to Lehigh Valley quickly, and given the Phillies major league outfield situation, he could see major league time.
Previous Rank: 6
ETA: 2014
26. Aaron Brown – RF (Profile)
DOB: June 20, 1992 (22)
H/W: 6’2″ 220lb
B/T: L/L
Acquired: Drafted in the 3rd round (#81 overall) in the 2014 draft by the Phillies ($750,000 bonus)
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
WPT (SS) | 47 | 193 | 3 | 8 | 3.1 | 21.2 | .256 | .301 | .356 |
LKW (A-) | 14 | 59 | 1 | 0 | 1.7 | 32.2 | .309 | .339 | .473 |
Role: Solid Regular
Risk: High – Despite his current loud tools, Brown’s approach is really concerning and represents a potential roadblock.
Summary: For a 22 year old 3rd round pick, there is a lot more risk and upside with Brown than you would expect. He had a chance to be drafted fairly highly as a pitcher, but it looks like the Phillies’ decision to let him hit has the bigger chance for a large payoff. Brown can handle center field, but he fits best in right field where he brings a cannon of an arm and above average speed. At the plate he has a fine swing that needs some minor cleanup. He has plus raw power and will show above average game power. The big problem I have with Brown is his approach and pitch recognition. In professional ball, Brown came to the plate 252 times and struck out 60 times, which is not an alarming rate. However, the fact that he walked only 7 times is very concerning. This is not a new thing for Brown, as he walked 9 times to 52 strikeouts in his junior year at Pepperdine. Brown is only just now starting to hit full time, but many prospects have been derailed by poor plate discipline. If he can find a middle ground where he can still be aggressive without wild hacking, he could be a good player for the Phillies. Everyone who meets and sees Brown raves about his makeup, and he plays the game at warp speed with a great a work ethic on and off the field. I might be very wrong on Brown, but given the risk in his profile, I am willing to be a year late to elevate him up my list. After getting a short audition at Lakewood to end 2014, Brown could get a chance to break camp with Clearwater in 2015, where he would likely play right field and share the outfield with Dylan Cozens and Carlos Tocci.
Previous Rank: N/A
ETA: 2017
27. Luis Encarnacion – 1B/LF (Profile)
DOB: August 9, 1997 (17)
H/W: 6’2″ 185lb
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Signed as an international free agent on August 29, 2013 by the Phillies ($1,000,000 bonus)
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
GCL (Rk) | 40 | 154 | 2 | 1 | 5.8 | 25.3 | .229 | .294 | .343 |
Role: First Division Regular
Risk: Extreme – As a first baseman or left fielder the bar for Encarnacion’s bat to reach is very high. He is still very young, so there is plenty of room for it to go right or wrong.
Summary: Encarnacion was one of the youngest players playing stateside in 2014, and his youth showed. At times Encarnacion looked overwhelmed, but at others he hit the ball hard enough to remind everyone why he was one of the top Latin prospects in 2013. The question when the Phillies signed Encarnacion was whether he could hit enough to overcome his defensive profile. This is still the overwhelming question as Encarnacion is now locked in as a first baseman or left fielder. In left field he has shown some natural aptitude for fielding though the transition is still in its early stages. He has enough bat and raw power to make it work, possibly enough to be special. Right now Encarnacion has plus raw power, and despite his youth, there is not a lot of space for further physical projection, but he has plenty of strength right now. When he was an amateur, Encarnacion recieved high praise for his natural hitting ability and he has the potential for a plus hit tool, but he will need to find a better approach at the plate to get his bat in a good position for hard contact. In recent years the Phillies have challenged their top Latin prospects by sending them to Lakewood with a fall back to Williamsport if needed. But given the fact that Encarnacion will spend almost the entire 2015 season at age 17, it is more likely that he goes to Extended Spring Training before going north to Williamsport.
Previous Rank: 15
ETA: 2019
28. Odubel Herrera – 2B/OF
DOB: December 29, 1991 (23)
H/W: 5’11” 200lb
B/T: L/R
Acquired: Signed as an international free agent on July 3, 2008 by the Rangers. Selected in the Rule 5 draft by the Phillies on December 11, 2014.
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
MB (A+) | 29 | 137 | 0 | 9 | 16.8 | 15.3 | .297 | .412 | .342 |
FRI (AA) | 96 | 408 | 2 | 12 | 7.1 | 17.2 | .321 | .373 | .402 |
Role: Second Division Regular
Risk: Medium – Herrera will be making the jump from AA to the majors, and while the bat has been above expectations, there are still a lot of questions about which positions he can handle.
Summary: It is really hard to rank Herrera in the Phillies’ system. The Rule 5 pick lacks a real set position; his numbers seem to outstrip his tools, and he is about to be thrust into the major leagues. Herrera was a bit of a sleeper in a Rangers system that is full of Latin middle infielders. In 2014 he won the Texas League (AA) batting title before going to the Venezuela Winter League, where he won the batting title and put up a blistering .372/.432/.556 line in the regular season. Herrera is passable at second base, but the glove and arm are more towards fringe average, possibly reaching average. However, he has taken to the outfield this winter, first in left field and now center field. There have not been any reports on how good the defense has been in winter league, but it has been positive enough that the outfield is where the Phillies see him getting the most time. Herrera has made good strides toward a better approach and saw a big jump in his walk rate in 2014. Despite his showing in winter ball, Herrera has yet to show anything above 30 power potential previously, and while he has plus speed, he has not been a productive base runner up to this point. Herrera has a good feel for contact and scouts love his hit tool. It looks like the Phillies are committed to working Herrera into the 2015 team. The big question for Herrera is whether he can actually play the outfield. If he can, the fall back is a utility role. If he can’t then he is going to be on the tough road of hitting at second base. Given how Herrera has outhit his tools so far, there is a chance he will outhit the second division label I have above and can carve out a career as a major league regular.
Previous Rank: N/A
ETA: 2015
29. Nefi Ogando – RHP (Profile)
DOB: June 3, 1989 (25)
H/W: 6’2″ 185lb
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Signed as an international free agent on June 14, 2010 by the Red Sox. Traded on August 31, 2013 to the Phillies for SS John McDonald.
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
REA (AA) | 40 | 0 | 5-1 | 56.0 | 6.27 | 10.3 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 9.2 |
SCO (AFL) | 12 | 0 | 1-0 | 14.2 | 3.07 | 8.2 | 0.6 | 2.5 | 9.2 |
Role: High Leverage Reliever
Risk: Medium – Despite his proximity to the majors, Ogando’s control and slider are far from finished products.
Summary: Bullpen arms are volatile, and normally this describes the risk of burnout associated with the profile. However, in the case of Nefi Ogando the opposite was true, and he started making the jump from org arm to impact reliever. Between when he was acquired for John McDonald and the start of the 2014 season, his fastball went from 93-95 touching 96 to 96-98 and routinely hitting 99 and even up to 100. At the beginning of the year his slider was still poor, but by the end of the Arizona Fall League he was flashing a potential plus pitch. His Reading ERA was a bit deceptive as he had one of the worst months ever with a 9 IP 25 H 19 ER 6 BB 8 K nightmare. In July and August he was much more solid with a 23 IP 17 H 9 ER 11 BB 24 K line. He continued this success into the AFL, where he turned the head of scouts and coaches and earned himself a spot on the 40 man roster. His upside is not quite to the level where Ken Giles has established himself, especially when it comes to the control of his pitches. However, Ogando has the upside and stuff to be a dominant reliever for the Phillies going forward. He should break camp with the IronPigs and will be in contention to be one of the first relief arms the Phillies bring up to the majors.
Previous Rank: UR
ETA: 2015
30. Severino Gonzalez – RHP (Profile)
DOB: September 28, 1992 (22)
H/W: 6’1″ 153lb
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Signed as an international free agent on April 27, 2011 by the Phillies ($14,000 bonus)
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
REA (AA) | 27 | 27 | 9-13 | 158.2 | 4.59 | 9.6 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 6.5 |
Role: #5 Starter
Risk: Low – There is not a lot of growth left for Gonzalez, but he has proven that he has enough stuff to pitch in the majors. From here on out it will be about him using his arsenal as precisely as he can.
Summary: Severino Gonzalez was not the dominant pitcher that his 2013 numbers suggested, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a solid pitching prospect. The most impressive part of Severino’s season was that he managed to pitch 158.2 innings, with only a single start skipped, and his numbers were fairly solid at the end of the year. The Phillies limited the use of Gonzalez’s best pitch, his cutter, and forced him to develop a changeup. Continuing to develop the changeup will be key for Gonzalez going forward, because he is going to need to rely more on a complete arsenal of pitches as he lacks a single dominating pitch. Severino is still fairly young and has a slight frame, however there is not a lot of room for a lot more muscle so I wouldn’t expect any big velocity gains. Severino will bring a fastball in the 89-91 range and will get up to 92, and he can move it around and command it in the zone. He adds that to the earlier mentioned cutter, a changeup, a slider, and a curveball, all of which are fringe average, possibly getting to average (with the cutter maybe a half grade ahead of the others). Due to this, Severino has struggled to miss bats and has been home run prone. If he can keep mixing his pitches and avoid walks, then he could be a #5 starter with an outside chance at being a #4. It isn’t a big ceiling, but Severino has positioned himself where he could get a shot at the major leagues fairly soon.
Previous Rank: 19
ETA: 2015
31. Arquimedes Gamboa – SS (Profile)
DOB: September 23, 1997 (17)
H/W: 5’11” 160lb
B/T: S/R
Acquired: Signed as an international free agent on July 2, 2014 by Phillies ($900,000 bonus)
Role: First Division Regular
Risk: Extreme – Gamboa has yet to play outside of fall instructional league. Also large amounts of physical growth are still required.
Summary: At $900,000, Gamboa’s bonus comes in as the second highest Latin American signing bonus the Phillies have given out in the past 5 years (behind Luis Encarnacion). There was some debate at how good a prospect he was in the Latin market with Baseball America having him as the #8 prospect and MLB.com having him #15. The draw for Gamboa is that he is a projectable athlete with all the tools to stick at shortstop long term. Along with the defense Gamboa has plus speed. At the plate Gamboa is a switch hitter with feel for contact. There is room for power to come into his frame, but probably not enough for him to hit a lot more than 10 home runs a year. It is not a tool set with a bunch of numbers that jump off the page, but there is some upside here in the projection and athleticism. The most important thing is his defensive profile, because if he can get up to being an above average or plus defender at shortstop, the bat doesn’t need to be anything other than solid for him to be a really good player. Gamboa will almost certainly be the primary shortstop on the Phillies GCL team that projects to also have Daniel Brito and Jonathan Arauz.
Previous Rank: N/A
ETA: 2020
32. Cameron Perkins – RF/LF/1B (Profile)
DOB: September 27, 1990 (24)
H/W: 6’5″ 195lb
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Drafted in the 6th round (#218 overall) in the 2012 draft by the Phillies ($152,900 bonus)
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
REA (AA) | 52 | 222 | 3 | 5 | 9.0 | 13.5 | .342 | .408 | .495 |
LHV (AAA) | 74 | 272 | 2 | 3 | 4.8 | 18.0 | .216 | .259 | .298 |
Role: Second Division Regular/4th Outfielder
Risk: Low – Perkins’ hit tool combined with reaching AAA gives Perkins a lot of certainty in reaching the major leagues.
Summary: Perkins is a player that does a lot of things right on a baseball field, but his is not a profile that necessarily lends itself well to a starting outfield spot at the major league level. He put up a great triple slash line in AA this year on the back of a .393 BABIP, but AAA proved to be a much bigger challenge. At his best, Perkins can put the bat on almost anything, but much like Maikel Franco a year ago, the quality of contact can often suffer from this approach, and Perkins put up a 48% GB% on the year. Additionally, his natural approach lacks power, and while scouts dream of the 6’5” 195lb frame adding muscle, at age 24 he is no longer a projectable teenager. Outside of his time in AA he has never been able to put up a decent walk rate (though he has kept his strikeout rate down) and his speed is closer to fringe average. On defense he can play both outfield corners and first base. He played 3B in college but has not played there in 2 years. All of this sounds very negative, but unlike many players on this list, Perkins’ flaws are things that keep him from being a major league regular, not from being a major leaguer. He has a solid 4th/5th outfielder profile, and given that he ended the year in AAA, it is one that he could see the majors in 2015. Players like Perkins don’t carry teams to championships, but if you can develop them and have them fill the holes on your roster, they can be valuable pieces of team construction.
Previous Rank: 25
ETA: 2015
33. Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez – RHP
DOB: September 23, 1986 (28)
H/W: 6’3″ 200lb
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Signed as an international free agent on August 30, 2013 by Phillies (3/$12M MLB contract)
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
CLW (A+) | 8 | 3 | 0-2 | 15.1 | 4.70 | 11.7 | 0.0 | 5.3 | 6.5 |
REA (AA) | 11 | 0 | 0-2 | 14.1 | 3.14 | 6.3 | 1.3 | 4.4 | 15.1 |
LHV (AAA) | 12 | 0 | 0-0 | 16.2 | 1.62 | 5.4 | 0.0 | 5.4 | 10.3 |
PHI (MLB) | 6 | 0 | 0-1 | 5.1 | 6.75 | 15.2 | 1.7 | 5.1 | 8.4 |
Role: 7th/8th Inning Reliever
Risk: Medium – The risk here is in his injury history and his control issues, but Gonzalez has already reached the major leagues and is a finished product tools wise.
Summary: Gonzalez makes his first appearance in the rankings this year as I decided to exclude him last year. The indication is that the Phillies will try him out as a starter again, but given his profile and past attempts at returning him to that role, success is unlikely. The good news is that the bullpen role is not a bad fall back for the Cuban righty, because the stuff is electric. Out of the bullpen in the majors his fastball averaged 94.9 mph (per PitchFx) topping out at up to 98 (minor league reports had him more 93-94 touching higher), and he can make it move and cut too. The secondary pitches (mostly curveball/splitter) are more average than anything else. Because he may be able to lock down multiple inning stints out of the bullpen, his ceiling might be higher than Nefi Ogando, but there are some red flags here. For one, there is the shoulder injury that cost him half of the 2014 season and caused his contract to go from 6/$48M to 3/$12M, and while he is healthy now, history tells us that the biggest indicator of future pitching injuries is past pitching injuries. The other problem is control, as he walked 29 batters in 51.2 innings across 4 levels in 2014. Out of the bullpen he may be able to get away with it, especially if he can miss bats like he showed in AA/AAA, but out of a rotation, that lack of precision will be difficult to overcome. Gonzalez will likely never live up to the promise he had when the Phillies first signed him, but he could fit into a flame throwing cheap bullpen in Philadelphia as soon as opening day 2015.
Previous Rank: N/A (unranked last year due to list construction)
ETA: 2014
34. Jiandido Tromp – LF (Profile)
DOB: September 27, 1993 (21)
H/W: 5’11” 175lb
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Signed as an international free agent on August 8, 2011 by Phillies ($130,000 bonus)
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
WPT (SS) | 69 | 288 | 14 | 16 | 6.6 | 25.0 | .266 | .325 | .498 |
LKW (A-) | 27 | 95 | 1 | 3 | 6.3 | 31.6 | .224 | .287 | .329 |
Role: Solid Regular
Risk: High – Tromp’s high strikeout rate, left field profile, and extreme pull tendencies leave some large hurdles for Tromp to trump.
Summary: The 2014 season was a bit of a breakout for Tromp. After a quick stint at Lakewood, Tromp made his third attempt at Williamsport. The result was a new home run record for Williamsport. On the surface, Tromp shows an exciting amount of power, speed, and upside, but not everything is as polished as it seems. Tromp has plus raw power, but all of it, and most of the rest of his contact, is to his pull side.
Tromp has plus plus speed, but he is not a great center fielder, and while he can hold it down, he is likely destined for a corner. His lack of arm makes it left field, not right. His approach at the plate has a lot to be desired, but it is workable. Put it all together and you have an interesting player, but one with a lot of work to do. Tromp’s upside is likely a bit higher than solid regular, but given the negatives, his optimistic outcome is more in the solid LFer mold. If Tromp can show the ability to use the full field while improving his approach, he could climb quickly up the rankings. He will get another chance at full season ball in 2015.
Previous Rank: HM
ETA: 2018
35. Andrew Pullin – 2B (Profile)
DOB: September 25, 1993 (21)
H/W: 6’0″ 190lb
B/T: L/R
Acquired: Drafted in the 5th round (#188 overall) in the 2012 draft by the Phillies ($203,900 bonus)
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
LKW (A-) | 129 | 544 | 9 | 6 | 7.5 | 17.5 | .270 | .332 | .374 |
Role: Solid Regular
Risk: High – Despite his hit tool and good work ethic, Pullin’s second base only profile provides plenty of risk in achieving his upside.
Summary: Andrew Pullin, like many in this group, started as a lock to make my top 30. In the end, Pullin fell down the rankings after having done a lot of things right in 2014 and actually having his stock tick up. Pullin doesn’t have any stand out tools, but most everything is close to average or a bit above, except for his raw power. His power itself is below average, mostly due to a swing that generates no loft. Beyond his tools, the glaring problem is that Pullin is a second baseman, and given that he is converted outfielder, his fall back is left field. The defense at second base is improving, but he is not a natural middle infielder like others on this list. Outside the flaws is a guy who does a lot of things right on a baseball field. His hit tool could get all the way to plus, or at least above average, which will help the other tools play up. The overall ceiling for Pullin is as a solid regular second baseman, but the second base only profile is a tough road, and he is going to need to prove himself at each level.
Previous Rank: 29
ETA: 2017
36. Chris Oliver – RHP (Profile)
DOB: July 8, 1993 (21)
H/W: 6’4″ 170lb
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Drafted in the 4th round (#112 overall) in the 2014 draft by the Phillies ($550,000 bonus)
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
GCL (Rk) | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 3.2 | 12.27 | 14.7 | 0.0 | 7.4 | 9.9 |
WPT (SS) | 7 | 3 | 0-1 | 14.0 | 7.71 | 12.2 | 1.3 | 12.9 | 3.9 |
Role: #3 Starter/High Leverage Reliever
Risk: Extreme – His control problems and lack of a changeup leave a lot of significant development steps that Oliver will need to accomplish in a short time period to be on a path to the majors.
Summary: To call Oliver’s pro-debut a disappointment would be an understatement. The Phillies knew they were getting an unfinished product with the former college reliever, but they may have a lot more work to do than they thought. That being said, the talent is there to be something special. Before a pre-draft DUI, Oliver was a borderline 2nd round pick, but he ended up falling to the Phillies in the 4th round. In college was in the mid-90s as a starter, getting all the way up to 97, with a plus slider. The Phillies have begun working on finding some consistency in Oliver’s delivery, so that he can master the movement in his fastball, as well as find some consistency in his changeup. Oliver showed better results in instructs, and it is likely the Phillies will at least try to develop him as a starting pitcher. If not, his future is in the back of a bullpen where the fastball/slider combination could be devastating. So while the debut was a bit rocky, there is a lot to like with Oliver; he just might be a guy who takes more time to develop than some had expected when he was drafted.
Previous Rank: N/A
ETA: 2018
37. Rhys Hoskins – 1B (Profile)
DOB: March 17, 1993 (22)
H/W: 6’4″ 225lb
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Drafted in the 5th round (#142 overall) in the 2014 draft by the Phillies ($349,700 bonus)
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
WPT (SS) | 70 | 273 | 9 | 3 | 7.7 | 19.8 | .237 | .311 | .408 |
Role: Solid Regular
Risk: High – Hoskins has a relatively advanced bat that should carry him into the high minors, however as a first baseman, he is going to hit consistently at every stop along the way.
Summary: Hoskins is going to be a trendy sleeper prospect in The Phillies system now that he has been pushed out of most Top 30s. There are good reasons to believe in the Phillies 5th round pick in the 2014 draft. After getting off to a slow start in Williamsport, Hoskins proceeded to rake for the rest of the year (hit .289/.373/.478 in August), and he hit even better away from Bowman Field (.298/.380/.529). He continued the hot hitting right into instructs. Hoskins has a good feel for contact, but he doesn’t have elite coordination or bat speed. He does have at least plus power and a good approach, so there is the raw potential for his bat to work at first. On defense, Hoskins is a good defender at first base, and pre-draft there were some that thought he could play the outfield. The real thing holding down Hoskins is the profile; as a first baseman he has to hit his offensive ceiling and then keep proving it at every level. If Hoskins starts 2015 in Clearwater, he can begin to answer these questions and could move fairly quickly, he just doesn’t have any margin for error.
Previous Rank: N/A
ETA: 2017
38. Edubray Ramos – RHP (Profile)
DOB: December 19, 1992 (22)
H/W: 6’0″ 165lb
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Signed by the Phillies as an international free agent on November 21, 2012
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
VSL (Rk) | 7 | 0 | 1-1 | 12.0 | 0.75 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 8.2 |
GCL (Rk) | 8 | 0 | 0-0 | 9.2 | 0.93 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 4.7 | 12.1 |
WPT(SS) | 11 | 1 | 1-0 | 22.2 | 0.79 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 9.5 |
Role: High Leverage Reliever
Risk: High – The stuff might play at a major league level, but Ramos has yet to pitch in full season ball and has an overall limited track record.
Summary: It is hard to properly rank relievers, because the margin between success and failure is so narrow. Elite relievers are very valuable, as we are seeing right now with Ken Giles. Ramos doesn’t come armed with a 100 mph fastball, has never pitched in full season ball, and is already 22, but yet the RHP finds himself among the most exciting arms in the Phillies system. Ramos’s stat line jumps off the page, and he just kept getting better at each level to the point where his Williamsport line was just unfair. Ramos isn’t doing it with smoke and mirrors; his fastball got better all year, and by the end of the year it was at least 92-94 touching 96. He adds a breaking ball and changeup to the fastball. His slider is a wipeout devastating pitch. Ramos is probably strictly a reliever going forward, but he routinely pitched 2-3 innings an outing in Williamsport and even got a 4 inning start to end the year (on two’s day rest). The Phillies might play with him in the rotation in Lakewood, but if he is in the bullpen he probably could make the jump to Clearwater and from there move very quickly up the system. It is unlikely he will launch all the way up the system in 2015, but he is a guy to watch closely.
Previous Rank: UR
ETA: 2016
39. Willians Astudillo – C/1B/3B/LF (Profile)
DOB: October 14, 1991 (23)
H/W: 5’5″ 182
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Signed as an international free agent by the Phillies on December 15, 2008
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
LKW (A-) | 117 | 465 | 4 | 2 | 4.1 | 4.3 | .333 | .366 | .433 |
Role: Utility Player
Risk: Low – Astudillo is who he is. It really comes down to whether he can prove it at higher levels
Summary: Astudillo has the best hit tool in the Phillies minor leagues, and it is not particularly close. He struck out in a lower percentage of his at bats than any qualified batter at any level of affiliated baseball (h/t to Carson Cistulli). However, Astudillo finds himself at the bottom of this list because of the rest of his game. He has some power, by nature of making so much contact, but his hitting style does not allow him to drive the baseball. Instead there are a lot more gap doubles than home runs. Outside his lack of power, his hitting style does not lend itself to a high walk rate, and he is not going to add any value with his legs. On defense, Astudillo is surprisingly athletic with a strong arm, but lacks range, and the knee injury that ended his 2013 season before it began also appears to have ended his future behind the plate. The Phillies have been looking to combat all of this by turning him into a versatile utility player, and so far he has 1B/3B/LF on his positional list. Without the defensive value or the secondary skills at the plate, it is hard to see Astudillo ever being a major league regular. However, if he can master enough positions defensively to competently stand at them, he could carve out a career as a very interesting bench player. Overall, Astudillo might be one of the most unique players in baseball and one that could easily outstrip this ranking, but it will take him breaking a lot of trends and conventional wisdom.
Previous Rank: UR
ETA: 2016
40. Jesus Posso – C (Profile)
DOB: February 10, 1995 (20)
H/W: 5’11” 201lb
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Signed by the Phillies as an international free agent
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
GCL (Rk) | 39 | 106 | 1 | 0 | 7.5 | 14.2 | .245 | .314 | .340 |
CLW (A+) | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | .250 | .250 | .750 |
Role: Solid regular
Risk: High – Solid defensive skills keep this from an extreme, but the lack of track record lends Posso’s profile a lot of risk
Summary: Posso remains under the radar in the Phillies system. He was on a 2014 GCL team that lacked big names, and he faded down the stretch. When it looks good, Posso may have average contact and power at the plate, which is borderline special from a catcher. Behind the plate he controls the game at an impressive level for a rookie league catcher, and he has the feel to be a solid to plus defender with a plus, accurate arm. He is not the defender that Grullon is, and so he is going to need to be more of a complete package, both on offense and defense. He will need to do it outside of the complex to start getting more notice, but his profile could falter along the way and still end up as a strong MLB back up. The Phillies have used him at first base, but that seemed to be more of an effort to keep his bat in the lineup while they worked in some of their other catchers.
Previous Rank: UR
ETA: 2019
41. Malquin Canelo – SS (Profile)
DOB: September 5, 1994 (20)
H/W: 5′ 10″ 156lbs
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Signed by Phillies as an international free agent on April 29, 2012
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
WPT (SS) | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 7.1 | 28.6 | .154 | .214 | .154 |
LKW (A-) | 45 | 167 | 1 | 4 | 6.6 | 18.6 | .270 | .319 | .355 |
CLW (A+) | 6 | 53 | 0 | 1 | 5.7 | 22.6 | .208 | .269 | .271 |
Role: Second Division Regular
Risk: Medium – Despite the huge gap from where he is right now to the majors, the defensive profile makes Canelo a safer bet for a major league career.
Summary: Canelo had a weird 2014 in most organizations he would have opened as the shortstop or second baseman in full season ball. But with J.P. Crawford and Andrew Pullin in Lakewood, Canelo was held back in Extended Spring Training, though he did make a 16 game cameo in Clearwater. He then went north with Williamsport for 4 games before Crawford’s promotion opened up the Lakewood shortstop job. Canelo then proceeded to hit .270/.319/.355 over 45 games in Lakewood. Canelo has continued to add more hard contact to his swing and continues to be a wizard with the glove. The bat is empty enough that it is an uphill road to a major league starting role. He profiles best as a player who can lock down three infield spots with plus defense in a utility role. He will likely have to battle it out with fellow good glove-light bat SS Emmanuel Marrero for who gets the job in Clearwater or Lakewood.
Previous Rank: 28
ETA: 2018
42. Jan Hernandez – 3B (Profile)
DOB: January 3, 1995 (20)
H/W: 6’1″ 195lbs
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Drafted in the 3rd Round (#96 overall) of 2013 draft by Phillies ($550,000 bonus)
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
WPT(SS) | 57 | 217 | 5 | 4 | 8.3 | 36.4 | .186 | .256 | .320 |
LKW (A-) | 17 | 60 | 1 | 0 | 8.3 | 38.3 | .145 | .217 | .255 |
Role: Solid Regular
Risk: Extreme – In 2014 Hernandez showed the tools to be a major league regular, but any player striking out in over 36% of their PAs has extreme risk.
Summary: There is not a lot to like about Hernandez’s year on the field as the former 3rd round pick put up a pitiful line in both Lakewood and Williamsport. However, there is still plenty of potential in the third baseman. He is plus raw power (to the pull side) and very good bat speed coming from strong wrists. The approach is not there, and the Phillies have been working to slowly make progress at coaxing a plan out of him. He is equally erratic in the field, where on some days he will look like a plus defender at the hot corner with a strong arm, and on others he will mess up easy plays. Hernandez is still very young, and it is too early to give up on him. He will go to Lakewood where he will need to work to get some more at bats under his belt and continue to step forward. The upside is an above average regular or better at third base, but the floor might be Lakewood.
Previous Rank: 24
ETA: 2018
43. Jonathan Arauz – SS (Profile)
DOB: August 3, 1998 (16)
H/W: 6’0″ 150
B/T: S/R
Acquired: Signed as an international free agent on August 3, 2014 by the Phillies ($600,000 signing bonus)
Role: Solid Regular
Risk: Extreme – July 2 signing with only pro experience coming in Fall Instructs.
Summary: In the past someone like Arauz might have been in a Top 30 prospect list based on the limited data we have on him, but the system has gotten a bit deeper and so he ends up down here. Arauz was one of the more unheralded July 2 players this year due to a lack of appearances at high profile showcases, but was regarded as the best player out of Panama. The buzz before and after signing is that Arauz was flashing average to above average tools across the board, with the ability to stick at shortstop. He isn’t the defensive player Arquimedes Gamboa is, but he is also less of a gamble than Daniel Brito. There is breakout potential here if he can play to the tools. He should start 2015 in the GCL where he will play almost the entire year at age 16, and will almost certainly be youngest Phillies prospect playing stateside.
Previous Rank: N/A
ETA: 2020
44. Daniel Brito – SS (Profile)
DOB: January 25, 1998 (17)
H/W: 6’1″ 140lbs
B/T: L/R
Acquired: Signed as an international free agent on July 2, 2014 by the Phillies ($650,000 bonus)
Role: Solid Regular
Risk: Extreme – July 2 signing with only pro experience coming in Fall Instructs and his needed physical projection lends extra risk.
Summary: Brito is the lowest ranked of the three Latin July 2 shortstops the Phillies spent $600k+ on this past season. In many ways Brito’s frame and abilities are reminiscent of Carlos Tocci. Brito has a long way to go physically, and there are questions about whether his frame can handle enough muscle. Also like Tocci, he has a feel for hitting beyond both his age and physical abilities. He has solid actions at shortstop, but right now seems the most likely of the group to have to make the shift to either second base or center field. Much like Arauz, Brito was under the radar having not attended many showcases. Like Gamboa and Arauz, Brito will likely begin the year in the GCL where he will be in the juggling act for playing time. It may be a few years before Brito has matured enough physically to know where his future projection is.
Previous Rank: N/A
ETA: 2020
45. Adam Morgan – LHP (Profile)
DOB: February 27, 1990 (25)
H/W: 6’1″ 195lbs
B/T: L/L
Acquired: Drafted in the 3rd Round (#120 overall) in the 2011 Draft by the Phillies ($250,000 bonus)
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
SCO (AFL) | 6 | 6 | 1-2 | 16.1 | 6.61 | 14.3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 6.1 |
Role: #4 Starter
Risk: Extreme – Following shoulder surgery, Adam Morgan has not yet had his stuff return to pre-injury form, additionally the history of pitchers successfully returning from shoulder injuries is poor.
Summary: It’s been a rough past two years for Adam Morgan. Out of spring training in 2013 he looked electric and on his way to being a rotation mainstay. In 2015 he will enter spring training having only thrown a handful of innings in the Arizona Fall League where his arsenal lacked impact and was very hittable. He hangs on at the back of a list because he is early in his return to the mound and there is a chance that the stuff continues to improve as he gets more innings under his belt. If he could ever return to his pre-injury form, he is a mid-rotation starter with an outside chance at three plus pitches. At this point the odds are better that he is a fringe LH reliever if he makes the major leagues.
Previous Rank: 20
ETA: 2015
46. Miguel Nunez – RHP (Profile)
DOB: October 27, 1992 (22)
H/W: 6’6″ 215lbs
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Signed as an international free agent on January 22, 2010 ($220,000 bonus)
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
CLW (A+) | 25 | 20 | 6-7 | 122.1 | 4.49 | 9.2 | 0.6 | 3.2 | 7.0 |
Role: #4 Starter
Risk: High – Nunez had a rough time in A-ball and despite the gains late in the season he still hasn’t shown a pattern of sustainability.
Summary: Nunez was once a high profile international signing for the Phillies, but after missing both the 2011 and 2012 seasons he was off most people’s radars. In 2013 he started the year in a piggyback starting spot with Yoel Mecias, but after Lakewood experienced injuries he moved into the rotation full time. He entered 2014 poised to enter prospect discussions, but a terrible start to the year had him in Extended Spring Training having his delivery put back together. After a couple of appearances out of the bullpen he returned to the rotation where he was dominant in the second half of the year. Nunez brings a fastball in the low 90s, and an average curve and changeup. Despite the size and youth, there is not big upside here because there is not a lot of projection remaining. However, there is enough current stuff to see a role as a back end starter. The other option is that he eventually moves to the bullpen where the stuff could play up.
Previous Rank: HM
ETA: 2016
47. Samuel Hiciano – LF (Profile)
DOB: January 25, 1994
H/W: 6’1″ 203lbs
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Signed by the Phillies as an international free agent on December 1, 2011
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
LKW (A-) | 93 | 362 | 9 | 8 | 6.4 | 23.8 | .255 | .306 | .409 |
Role: Second Division Regular
Risk: High – One year of full season ball, left field only profile that saw approach numbers regress in 2014.
Summary: Hiciano came out of 2013 poised for a breakout season, but injuries and the Lakewood ballpark caused the 20 year old to stall out in his first attempt at full season ball. In Williamsport, his season was marked by power and patience, but in 2014 his BB% dropped from 11.4 to 6.4 and his ISO dropped from .206 to .155. The approach issue was a big red flag, but we are going to need more data on the power given some stark home/road splits:
G | AB | 2B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
Home | 47 | 160 | 7 | 1 | 11 | 48 | .238 | .287 | .313 |
Away | 46 | 170 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 38 | .271 | .323 | .500 |
The walk rate didn’t improve dramatically on the road, but what we see is a huge difference in the power and a sharp drop in his strikeout rate when Hiciano got away from Lakewood. Part of this has to do with the fact that Hiciano had a 47% FB% in 2014, and those balls just died in Lakewood (especially to CF and to RF). Hiciano is a bit pull happy on the ground and hits a lot of infield fly balls. Outside of the bat, it is a left field only profile, so there is not a lot of defensive value coming. Overall there is not a huge ceiling here, but Hiciano is a big enough guy with plus raw power, that he should not get forgotten in the low minors outfield shuffle. His ceiling is probably major league regular, but 2015 will go a long way to showing whether 2013 or 2014 was more of the real Hiciano.
Previous Rank: 30
ETA: 2018
48. Brandon Leibrandt – LHP (Profile)
DOB: December 13, 1992 (22)
H/W: 6’4″ 190lbs
B/T: L/L
Acquired: Drafted in the 6th Round (#172 overall) by the Phillies in 2014 ($261,800)
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
GCL (Rk) | 5 | 3 | 1-2 | 19.2 | 4.12 | 9.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 10.1 |
WPT (SS) | 7 | 7 | 2-3 | 41.0 | 2.20 | 6.4 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 9.9 |
Role: #5 Starter/Swing Man
Risk: Medium – For the most part Leibrandt is what he is, the changeup makes him more advanced than most short season pitcher, but the ceiling at risk is not too high.
Summary: Brandon has the pitcher profile I rail against the most, an advanced college arm with a feel for pitching and a plus changeup, but a mediocre fastball. The fastball is the sticking point between a player I love (which we will get to eventually with Yoel Mecias) and a player like Leibrandt. The reason Leibrandt does sneak on to this list is that the fastball did start to tick up closer to the 88-90 range in instructional leagues, and at 6’4” 190 lbs there is a small chance he can make that next step to being more in that 89-91 touch 92 range. If he can get to average with the fastball, it will help his plus change find separation, and you can start to dream on a back of the rotation ceiling. It’s much more likely the velocity doesn’t come, and Leibrandt finds hims a AAA starter or the stuff ticks up enough in the bullpen to make him a solid middle reliever. Leibrandt should move quickly and is a candidate to skip over Lakewood and go directly to Clearwater.
Previous Rank: N/A
ETA: 2018
49. Drew Anderson – RHP (Profile)
DOB: March 22, 1994 (21)
H/W: 6’3″ 185lbs
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Drafted in the 21st Round (#668 overall) by the Phillies in 2012
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
GCL (Rk) | 2 | 1 | 1-1 | 5.2 | 3.18 | 7.9 | 1.6 | 4.8 | 9.5 |
LKW (A-) | 9 | 9 | 4-4 | 44.0 | 3.68 | 9.4 | 0.2 | 3.1 | 9.4 |
Role: #4 Starter
Risk: High – Anderson has shown pretty good stuff, but injuries give him more risk than other pitchers with a similar profile in the system.
Summary: Anderson was my #27 prospect a year ago when he was coming off a season in Williamsport, where he was dominating competition with more feel than stuff. In 2014 the stuff took a small step forward as the fastball was average to slightly above, and the second pitches continued to improve. However, he missed time due to an arm injury, which casts some doubt on his future in the rotation as well as his ability to get enough innings to keep pushing forward in the dev process. At his best Anderson looks like a potential #4 starter, but the former 21st round pick has the frame that he could see a jump in stuff that could push his ceiling a bit higher. The big thing will be for him to get healthy and on the mound. He could return to Lakewood or move onto Clearwater, depending both on how the Phillies think he is in his rehab and how they want to assign some of their other low minors pitchers.
Previous Rank: 27
ETA: 2018
50. Grenny Cumana – SS (Profile)
DOB: November 10, 1995 (19)
H/W: 5’5″ 143lbs
B/T: S/R
Acquired: Signed as an international free agent by Phillies on March 3, 2013
2014 Stats:
Team (LVL) | G | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
GCL (Rk) | 33 | 126 | 1 | 6 | 5.6 | 7.9 | .248 | .304 | .363 |
Role: Solid regular
Risk: Extreme – Complex league profile, only had statistical success before injury.
Summary: Cumana is going to have the grinder and scrappy labels by default due to his size and lack of impact outside of his speed, which is plus plus. There is enough glove and arm strength (plus) that he could stick at shortstop long term, but he may end up pushed off the position by better prospects. The fall back is second base, where he fits the good speed, little power, high contact rate profile. It’s likely a utility or second division regular ceiling, but if he can stick at shortstop, the combination of glove and hitting ability could get him to the solid regular ceiling. Cumana was showing a lot of promising progress before he was injured in 2014 (20 of 50 at the plate before injury and 8 of 63 after injury) with most of the post injury numbers due to bad luck on balls in play. The big plus has been his contact rate with a strikeout rate of 7.9% in 2014, following up a 9.6% in 2013. There isn’t a huge ceiling, but he likely gets a chance at short season ball in 2015 and will need to stay in front of the 2014 J2 SS signings to keep playing time.
Previous Rank: UR
ETA: 2019
Not every prospect is a future star, but that doesn’t mean they should be ignored. Many useful prospects can fly under the radar because they lack the flash of better prospects. By capping the rankings at 50 I had to leave many of these players off of my list. This is not the best prospects who missed, nor are they in any order, but they are names you should know because some of them will emerge over the next year or two. I have excluded relievers from this list because they will get their own post soon.
Jason Zgardowski – RHP
Zgardowski was an undrafted free agent who is young for a college junior. He has a loose arm and physical projection, and he starts from a solid base with a fastball already up to 96. He has some feel for a slider and is working on adding a two-seam fastball and a changeup.
Josh Taylor – LHP
Another undrafted free agent college junior, Taylor has a three pitch mix topped with a fastball at 92-93. He has the arsenal to start and could be a steal for the Phillies.
Lewis Alezones – RHP
Alezones has a solid three pitch mix, but his fastball is more 88-91. Alezones is still young enough to add some velocity, however his frame lacks a lot of physical projection.
Denton Keys – LHP
Keys was an overslot pick in 2013, and he has a nice projectable frame. However, the lefty still lacks impact in his stuff and will need to add some velocity and improved secondaries to survive upper minors.
Mark Leiter Jr. – RHP
Leiter is the stereotypical junk ball college RHP. His fastball barely gets to 90, and none of his stuff is above average. He brings a million pitches, and his height makes him homer prone. He is probably a reliever long term.
Hoby Milner – LHP
Milner lacks the stuff to maintain a spot in the rotation. It appears that the velocity is never coming, but in the bullpen he might get a little more. With the fastball and solid changeup, Milner could settle into a middle relief role.
Shane Watson – RHP
Watson before his injury was looking like he was showing progress, but that was in 2013. His shoulder injuries have destroyed his stock until he can show any of his former promise.
Tommy Joseph – C
Joseph has a ton of talent, and a good amount of flaws. He has a cannon arm and big power, but the receiving and hit tool need work. He started off hot in 2014, but he had another concussion scare and a wrist injury. The wrist injury eventually required surgery and he only started swinging last week. There were some worries about his body language in the GCL. All of it together puts his stock on hold until he can get on a field.
David Whitehead – RHP
Whitehead appears to have come back fully from Tommy John surgery. Whitehead’s best weapon is a sinker in the low-90s that generates lots of ground balls. His secondary pitches indicate that his ceiling is #5 starter.
Sam McWilliams – RHP
McWilliams is the only high schooler signed by the Phillies in the 2014 draft. McWilliams has a large projectable frame, and he has touched 94 in the past. He was 90-92 late in instructs, however his secondary pitches need a lot of work.
Emmanuel Marrero – SS
Marrero was the Phillies 7th round pick in 2014. He is a glove first shortstop who may not hit. He and Malquin Canelo will have an interesting camp battle for placement.
Yacksel Rios – RHP
Yacksel has a 90-92 mph fastball out of the rotation, but he does have good deception and movement on the pitch. His changeup is more advanced than his slider, but both need a lot of work. If he can find the secondary pitches, he could settle in as a back of the rotation, but most likely he is a reliever.
Mitch Gueller – RHP
Gueller just never showed the stuff he had as an amateur, when he flashed potential for 3 plus pitches. In 2014 he replaced the curveball with a slider, which showed good potential. The Phillies think the velocity is in there, and he needs to reestablish his fastball.
Lenin Rodriguez – C
The Phillies gave Lenin $300,000 this summer as a 16 year old. Lenin is an offense first catcher with some defensive questions.
Brian Pointer – OF
On some days Pointer will look like an impact talent with power and speed, but on other days you wonder whether he should be on the roster. The middle ground is an inconsistent player with a reserve outfielder profile.
Gabriel Lino – C
Lino has a lot of tools you might associate with a promising catching prospect. He has a strong arm and plus raw power. The problem is that his receiving is suspect, and his hit tool is poor. He did make good strides in 2014 and could start in Reading in 2015, but his path remains unclear.
Ranger Suarez – LHP
Suarez’s numbers were eye popping, but in Instructs his fastball was in the mid-80s. He is not a big enough guy that you would expect velocity growth.
Carlos Duran – OF
Duran is a plus runner, tweener outfielder who has a long way to go. He is athletic and could grow into some home run power. Not really a sleeper, but someone to keep half an eye on.
William Cuicas – IF
Cuicas is a good defensive infielder who is unlikely to hit enough to have value.
Jesus Alastre – CF
Alastre is a speedy outfielder who tore up VWL at age 16. He is someone to watch in GCL.
Kevin Walter – RHP
Walter is a former over-slot project (part of the three prospects getting Scott Frazier’s money) with a low-90s fastball that showed first signs of life since the 2010 draft.
Nic Hanson – RHP
Hanson is a personal favorite of mine, because he is a giant sinker baller. He is not much of a pro prospect, but 6’7″ guy who pounds the zone with good plane.
Colin Kleven – RHP
Kleven is a three pitch righty with improved control. He could be the 2017 version of David Buchanan, as a guy who could do enough to get a shot at some major league starts.
Drew Stankiewicz – 2B
A grinder utility infielder, if Stankiewicz can keep hitting he might be something.
Mitch Walding – 3B
Walding is an outstanding defensive third baseman, but he doesn’t hit well. More concerning is that his bat lacks the impact to really carry him over his flaws.
Jake Sweaney – OF
A huge down year for the 6th round pick, with Sweaney moving from catcher to the outfield. He has raw talent and athleticism, but Sweaney has yet to translate it into baseball skills.
Ranfi Casimiro – RHP
Casimiro is a gigantic human being with an average fastball and good curve. His control can absolutely disappear, but he improved all year and could be a backend starter or reliever.
Larry Greene – LF
Non prospect and not particularly close. I will be surprised if he is in the org a year from now. On a tangent, go watch BP and highlights by Greene and Hewitt; you will get it a bit more. Both have very visible tools. The Phillies missed badly, that is not debatable. However, it becomes clear what was alluring at the time. All in all, scouting is hard.
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