Teams in competition windows are usually in the business of reducing their amount of minor league talent. It is the cost of obtaining players from other teams, and with team record and spending tied to how teams acquire amateur talent the pipeline is squeezed as well. The really obvious answer to this problem has always been to take something less valuable and make it better. This has powered the Dodgers, Yankees, Rays, and other long term high performing teams. The Phillies are still behind in that area, especially for players they signed or drafted. However, that isn’t the only way of acquiring talent.
This whole exercise was inspired by the Phillies flipping Tyler Gilbert to the White Sox for Aaron Combs, but it also comes back to Moises Chace, a prospect who is ranking highly in the system after being acquired for Gregory Soto. In Combs, the Phillies aren’t getting a great prospect, but he is an interesting prospect. Gilbert on the other hand, was acquired for cash when he wasn’t on a 40 man roster, largely did AAAA things and was rendered superfluous by the Phillies building depth. It is a prime example of the churning of a roster.
Times have change dramatically with the restriction of minor league rosters causing teams to sort of swap the back of their 165 man roster limits. These trades allow teams to look for guys on the edges of rosters, and we will see that the Phillies have used this quite a bit to both find their players good home and to acquire players interesting or in places of need. The other aspect of this is the minor league rule 5 draft where the Phillies have really taken off. The minor league phase of the rule 5 draft allows you to protect up to 38 rule 5 eligible players on your AAA roster (beyond those on the major league 40 man roster) and then you may select unprotected players until your own AAA roster is up to 38. These players cost money, but come with no strings attached. Given that these players are on the very fringes of a teams roster there is not a ton of talent (also that talent is rapidly approaching minor league free agency), and mostly it fills out rosters. It is not not surprising that there are only 2 players in the Phillies org from previous drafts. However, they were able to select Oliver Dunn, a player they were able to flip in a trade.
Then there is the major league swap meet that is waivers. Once again, waivers are free from a talent cost outside of the last guy on your own 40 man roster, as it only costs money to make a claim. If you are swapping the bottom of the roster the cost of acquisition is quite low and a team can take a lot of looks at players that they could improve or get some use out of. Cal Stevenson, Buddy Kennedy, and Tyler Phillips are all current members of the 40 man roster that were at one point waiver claims.
The last group that I don’t want to go in too deep on is minor league free agents. It is a sort of hard thing to quantify, but Jeff Hoffman, Jose Ruiz, and Weston Wilson were all minor league free agents that contributed to the 2024 Phillies.
For the most part I view this as a volume calculation. Each move is extremely low potential for outcome, and so the answer is to make a bunch of them just trying to find things that work (more on that in a second). Here are the number of moves made over the last 7 years of what we could call a time period of intended competitiveness. The first 3 seasons (2018-2020) are under MacPhail/Klentak and the last 4 (2021-2024) are under Dombrowski/Fuld. We do know that 2021 was a bit of a feeling out period for the Dombrowski front office as well, and we can see that in the numbers. I have also separated out trade deadline vs not trade deadline moves.
| Year | Trades | Non-Deadline Trades | Waiver Claims | MiLB R5 picks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| 2019 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 0 |
| 2020 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 2021 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 1 |
| 2022 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 7 |
| 2023 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 5 |
| 2024 | 25 | 21 | 7 | 6 |
We see distinct increases across the board. Some of this is due to an increase in minor league trades, but we have generally seen a front office that is not ok with just keeping what they have. I mentioned above the trades of Oliver Dunn for Hendry Mendez and Robert Moore, Gregory Soto for Moises Chace and Seth Johnson, and Tyler Gilbert for Aaron Combs. Chace, Johnson, and Mendez are all locks to be in my top 50, and Chace is likely to be the first top 5 prospect acquired from outside the organization since Jorge Alfaro before the 2018 season. Those trades all happen because the Phillies built a surplus and then turned that surplus into more prospects.
This is the pattern that good teams have continued to do for years. The Dodgers acquired top 5 prospects Zyhir Hope and Jackson Ferris in a deal that sent out Michael Busch. Their 2024 team included Kyle Hurt and Alex Vesia (Dylan Floro) and River Ryan (Matt Beaty) all acquired in minor moves. The Yankees just used Caleb Durbin to acquire Devin Williams, Durbin was acquired for Lucas Luetge. That consistent turnover and development cycle can be an engine that can fuel a team that is already on the top. The Phillies are not the engine of other teams, but the current front office does appear to have taken a large leap forward in trying to spark something.
Appendix: Trade List 2018-2025
I grouped my month as the goal is velocity, not individual critique. The goal is to show the difference in type of trade over time.
| Month/Year | Out | In | # of Moves |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3/18 | $, Ricardo Pinto, Eliezer Alvarez | Dean Anna, Int $, $ | 3 |
| 5/18 | Tommy Begjans | $ | 1 |
| 7/18 | Jacob Waguespack, Franklyn Kilome, Elniery Garcia | Aaron Loup, Wilson Ramos, Asdrubel Cabrera, $ | 4 |
| 8/18 | $, Jack Zoellner, Felix Paulino, McKenzie Mills | Jose Bautista, Int $, Luis Avilan, Justin Bour | 4 |
| 12/18 | Drew Jackson, Carlos Santana, J.P. Crawford | Int $, Jean Segura, Juan Nicasio, James Pazos | 2 |
| 2/19 | Sixto Sanchez, Jorge Alfaro, Will Stewart | J.T. Realmuto | 1 |
| 3/19 | Lenin Rodriguez | Int $ | 1 |
| 4/19 | James Pazos, Jesus Azuaje | Hunter Stovall | 2 |
| 6/19 | Tom Eshelman, Jake Scheiner | Int $, Jay Bruce | 2 |
| 7/19 | $, Austin Bossart | Dan Straily, Corey Dickerson, Jason Vargas, Jose Pirela, Mike Morin | 5 |
| 11/19 | Curtis Mead | Cristopher Sanchez | 1 |
| 12/19 | Vimael Machin | $ | 1 |
| 2/20 | Tyler Gilbert | Kyle Garlick | 1 |
| 8/20 | Austin Davis, Nick Pivetta, Connor Seabold, Addison Russ, Brandon Ramey, Juan Geraldo, Israel Puello, Edgar Garcia | Brandon Workman, Heath Hembree, David Hale, David Phelps, Joel Cesar, Rodolfo Sanchez | 5 |
| 12/20 | Garrett Cleavinger | Jose Alvarado | 1 |
| 1/21 | Kyle Holder, Cole Irvin, Victor Santos, Carson Ragsdale | $, C.J. Chatham, Sam Coonrod | 4 |
| 2/21 | Johan Quezada | $ | 1 |
| 7/21 | Spencer Howard, Josh Gessner, Kevin Gowdy, Tyler Burch, Abrahan Gutierrez | Hans Crouse, Ian Kennedy, Kyle Gibson, Freddy Galvis, Braeden Ogle | 3 |
| 8/21 | $ | T.J. Rivera | 1 |
| 11/21 | Logan Cerny, T.J. Rumfield, Joel Valdez | Nick Nelson, Donny Sands, Garrett Stubbs | 2 |
| 3/22 | Kervin Pichardo, Adam Haseley, Luke Williams | James Norwood, McKinley Moore, Will Toffey | 3 |
| 4/22 | $ | Dustin Peterson | 1 |
| 5/22 | John Andreoli, $ | $, Corey Oswalt | 2 |
| 6/22 | James Norwood, Austin Wynn | $, Michael Plassmeyer | 2 |
| 7/22 | JoJo Romero, Corey Oswalt | Edmundo Sosa, $ | 2 |
| 8/22 | $, Ricardo Sanchez, Drew Maggi, Ben Brown, Mickey Moniak, Jadiel Sanchez, Logan O’Hoppe | Vinny Nittoli, $, David Robertson, Noah Syndergaard, Brandon Marsh | 5 |
| 1/23 | Erik Miller, Donny Sands, Matt Vierling, Nick Maton, $ | Yunior Marte, Gregory Soto, Kody Clemens, Erich Uelmen | 3 |
| 3/23 | Billy Sullivan, $, Gabriel Yanez, Jonathan Hughes | Cristian Pache, T.J. Zeuch, $, Nick Allgeyer, Esteban Quiroz, Jordan Qsar | 7 |
| 5/23 | James McArthur, Ethan Lindow, Jamari Baylor | $, Junior Marin | 3 |
| 8/23 | $, Hao Yu Lee, Bailey Falter | Brewer Hicklen, Michael Lorenzen, Rodolfo Castro | 3 |
| 9/23 | Max McDowell | $ | 1 |
| 11/23 | Oliver Dunn, Adam Leverett | Hendry Mendez, Robert Moore, Michael Mercado | 2 |
| 2/24 | Kaleb Ort, $ | $, Michael Rucker | 2 |
| 3/24 | Marco Soto, $, Jake Cave, Jason Ruffcorn, Ezequiel Ventura | $, Zac Houston | 5 |
| 4/24 | Connor Brogdon, Jose Rodriguez | Benony Robles, $ | 2 |
| 5/24 | Ryan Burr, $ | $, Jonah Dipoto, Tyler Gilbert | 3 |
| 6/24 | Jorge Mendez, William Simoneit, Casey Martin, $ | $, Buddy Kennedy, Ruben Cardenas | 5 |
| 7/24 | George Klassen, Samuel Aldegheri, William Bergolla, Seranthony Dominguez, Gregory Soto, Cristian Pache | Carlos Estevez, Tanner Banks, Seth Johnson, Moise Chace, Austin Hays | 4 |
| 8/24 | David Buchanan, $ | $, Nelson Alvarez | 2 |
| 11/24 | $, Scott Kingery | Devin Sweet, $ | 1 |
| 12/24 | Emaarion Boyd, Starlyn Caba | Jesus Luzardo, Paul McIntosh | 1 |
| 1/25 | Tyler Gilbert | Aaron Combs | 1 |