Top 50 Breakdown and Random Facts

Creating any prospect list is a ton of work behind the scenes, but along the way there are many neat little facts and discoveries.  One of my favorite is the list itself.  The names involved in it can tell you a lot about the organization and how it acquires talent.  There is not a lot of deep meaning to these numbers, it is more just a curiosity, but one that I found can give a nice positive look at the future of the organization.

The Top 50 Breakdown:

Here are the two quickest breakdowns of the list; how where the players acquired and what position do they play:

Acquisition:

Draft	International	Trade	Rule 5
20	22	7	1

Position:

C	1B	2B	SS	3B	LF	CF	RF	RHSP	LHSP	RP
3	1	3	6	3	5	3	5	10	8	3

We will get to comparisons to previous year’s later in terms of how the system has been built over the years, but immediately the number of international signings jumps out to me.  There are more Draft prospects in the Top 30 (12 to 10), but the sheer number of players signed out of Latin America is staggering.  The low relief pitcher numbers I will get to in a later post, but it is an inherent part of how I rank prospects, rather than a mark of the position’s strength or weakness.

From here we move on to one of my favorite talent markers, how a player was originally acquired.  This gives a good feel for initial talent acquisition.

 

Given the depth of the list, the draft breakdown is unsurprising, especially with 4 of the 5 first rounders appearing in the Top 6 (Jesmuel Valentin at #22 was the lowest).  The big surprise here is the Latin American presence.  First is the bolstering of the $500,000+ group with three shortstops this summer, but the second is more impressive, and that is 14 players signed for less than $50,000 or an unknown bonus.  Of that group, 4 were acquired from outside the organization, but the other 10 were brought in by the Phillies scouting staff.

Top 30 over the Years:

Since this is my first year writing up a Top 50 list, the full list is hard to compare to previous lists.  For that I have reduced it down to just the Top 30 in this list.  I have then compared that to my two previous lists from before the 2013 and 2014 seasons.

Talent Acquisition

	Draft	International	Trade	Rule 5
2013	20	5	5	0
2014	18	10	2	0
2015	12	10	7	1

The draft has given way to other matters of talent acquisition, particularly in Latin America.  The trade returns have also improved as the 2013 list included freshly acquired Ethan Martin and Tommy Joseph, but also such luminaries as Tyson Gillies, Phillippe Aumont, and Gabriel Lino.

Positional Breakdown: (All prospects listed at the position they played at the time of the list’s construction)

	C	1B	2B	SS	3B	LF	CF	RF	RHSP	LHSP	RP
2013	3	1	2	1	4	1	4	3	5	3	3
2014	4	0	2	3	4	1	3	5	3	3	2
2015	2	0	1	1	2	2	3	5	7	6	1

Here is that same data in graph form:

 

My first instinct was concern over the decline in up the middle hitters (C, 2B, SS, CF), but it turns out that with a catcher, two second baseman, and five shortstops in the next 20 players, it appears to only be a temporary problem.  The big gains are in pitching as the Phillies addressed their weaknesses (in 2014 the highest ranking RHSP was Severin Gonzalez at #19) in a convincing manner.

Beyond all of these graphs, the best way to see the system growth is to see it side by side with the system in the past.  Here are the last three years of Top 30’s for comparisons (click to expand)

[section=Top 30’s]

Rank	2015	2014	2013
1	J.P. Crawford	Maikel Franco	Jesse Biddle
2	Aaron Nola	Jesse Biddle	Adam Morgan
3	Maikel Franco	JP Crawford	Roman Quinn
4	Yoel Mecias	Carlos Tocci	Tommy Joseph
5	Zach Eflin	Kelly Dugan	Ethan Martin
6	Jesse Biddle	Aaron Altherr	Maikel Franco
7	Roman Quinn	Roman Quinn	Cody Asche
8	Kelly Dugan	Deivi Grullon	Carlos Tocci
9	Deivi Grullon	Ethan Martin	Jonathan Pettibone
10	Carlos Tocci	Cord Sandburg	Shane Watson
11	Ben Lively	Yoel Mecias	Larry Greene Jr.
12	Tom Windle	Dylan Cozens	Mitch Gueller
13	Matt Imhof	Andrew Knapp	Phillippe Aumont
14	Victor Arano	Ken Giles	Darin Ruf
15	Franklyn Kilome	Luis Encarnacion	Dylan Cozens
16	Elniery Garcia	Zach Green	Justin De Fratus
17	Jose Pujols	Jose Pujols	Andrew Pullin
18	Dylan Cozens	Cesar Hernandez	Austin Wright
19	Cord Sandberg	Severino Gonzalez	Zach Collier
20	Ricardo Pinto	Adam Morgan	Sebastian Valle
21	Zach Green	Shane Watson	Cesar Hernandez
22	Jesmuel Valentin	Tommy Joseph	Mitch Walding
23	Andrew Knapp	Cameron Rupp	Zach Green
24	Joely Rodriguez	Jan Hernandez	Ken Giles
25	Aaron Altherr	Cameron Perkins	Tyson Gillies
26	Aaron Brown	Zach Collier	Kelly Dugan
27	Luis Encarnacion	Drew Anderson	Kevin Brady
28	Odubel Herrera	Malquin Canelo	Aaron Altherr
29	Nefi Ogando	Andrew Pullin	Jose Pujols
30	Severino Gonzalez	Samuel Hiciano	Gabriel Lino

[endsection]

Fun With Numbers and Random Notes:

70’s and 80’s:

Tools at the top end of the spectrum are extremely rare.  During the ranking process I went through all the tools for all the players in the Top 50, and in reviewing the spreadsheet I have 3 80 grade tools and 3 70 grade tools among the whole list.

80’s:

• Deivi Grullon’s Arm
• Roman Quinn’s Speed
• Jose Pujols’ Raw Power (the game power is much lower)

70’s:

• Nefi Ogando’s Fastball (mostly 96-98 despite the ability to touch higher)
• Jiandido Tromp’s Speed
• Grenny Cumana’s Speed

I wanted to share this because of just how rare these physical gifts are and how good players can be without them.  The top player on the list have a lot of 60’s and 55’s, which are all very valuable on a major league roster.

Random Stuff:

• Only two players J.P. Crawford (3 to 1) and Yoel Mecias (11 to 4) actually climbed in the rankings.
• The biggest fallers on the list (among those that did not fall off) : Adam Morgan (20 to 45), Drew Anderson (27 to 49), Aaron Altherr (6 to 25), Jan Hernandez (24 to 42), and Samuel Hiciano (30 to 47)
• Two players, Roman Quinn and Jose Pujols, did not change spots
• 10 players in the Top 30 were not in the organization a year ago
• Drew Anderson (22nd Round) is the lowest round drafted player on the list
• Jonathan Arauz is the youngest (August 1998)
• Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez (28) is the oldest
• Kelly Dugan (signed June 13, 2009) has been in the organization the longest
• Ben Lively (traded for on December 31, 2014) has been in the organization the shortest