Tonight starts the A-ball playoffs. On Sunday, in the 11th inning the BlueClaws clinched the second half South Atlantic League title with a roster full of players that had led the Threshers to the first half title in the Florida State League. The Threshers were ok in the second half, but even with reinforcements they are not quite the team they were when they took the league by storm.
Threshers Preview
Offense
The Threshers lack thump, but they don’t lack feistiness. Jordan Dissin or Ryan Leitch will be behind the plate, and both can have their moments but are primarily defenders. The big bats in probably the 1B and DH spot will be Keaton Anthony, Chad Castillo, Jordan Viars, or possibly Dakota Kotowski. None have hit particularly great with the Thresher, but Anthony and Kotowski crushed the FCL (and Anthony crushed in college) and there is raw power. The outfield is probably going to include Emaarion Boyd, Ricardo Rosario, and Raylin Heredia. It should be a very good defensive outfield. Rosario did not have a great year, but had some clutch at bats during the season, Boyd is not going to provide any power, but he gets on base and provides mayhem, and then Heredia is coming off a smoking hot week and was one of the best hitters in the FCL. Third base seems like it is going to be manned by Zach Arnold who crushed in college and has hit well with the Threshers. Up the middle will be a pair of teenagers. William Bergolla Jr. has zero power, but he does not swing and miss, gets on base, and plays a good second base. Aidan Miller will be at shortstop, where he has been shaky, and while the Phillies 1st round pick hasn’t had a great time in full season ball he is almost certainly the most talented hitter on the roster.
The bench should have some extra speed and defense in Troy Schreffler and some more situational bats if needed.
Pitching
Jean Cabrera and Estibenzon Jimenez should get the first two starts and it is fitting because they lead the Threshers in innings pitched. Cabrera has been working on a sinker for a month now, but his four-seam fastball was dominant early and I expect to see the Phillies let him return to that. Jimenez relies more on his full arsenal and I would not be surprised if he leans on the off speed pitches more. Both pitchers are conditioned for at least 5 innings, but could likely go 6 if needed. For a Game 3 or championship round the Threshers could turn to Jonathan Petit or others, though it looks like they will be without Alex McFarlane who could be a real weapon.
The bullpen will be more of an adventure. There are talented arms here, but mostly unproven or wild. RHP Josh Bortka has been good of late and probably gets the late innings where his breaking balls have been real weapons. LHP Danny Wilkinson has been one of the top strikeout pitchers in the minor (106 strikeouts in 56.2 innings), but he is walking over 7 per 9 and has a 4.45 ERA, his slider is getting a whiff on 57% of swings on the season. The rest of the bullpen is likely to be a kitchen sink approach.
The Threshers will also have Hans Crouse and Erich Uelmen on rehab from AAA for some amount of the opening series.
BlueClaws Preview
Offense
The Threshers’ loss is the BlueClaws gain. The catching situation has been a bit rough, but Caleb Ricketts has found his footing lately. On the infield, Felix Reyes (1B/3B) and Kendall Simmons (2B/3B) both have huge raw power, but contact quality and swing and miss have been problems (in addition to a string of injuries for Simmons). Erick Brito is a minus hitter and plus fielder, and Bryan Rincon is a plus fielder at shortstop and while he doesn’t have much power gives as good an at bat as anyone with great on base. Otto Kemp has moved around the infield and made a game saving play on Sunday, he and Cole Moore have some pop but have largely struggled at the plate.
The outfield should include Justin Crawford flanked by Leandro Pineda and Gabriel Rincones Jr. Crawford has some flaws that give some long term concerns, but he is going to get hits, he is going to run when he is on base, and he is going to play good defense. Rincones has gotten a bit cold after having a good August, but he has the most raw power on the team and could change the game with a swing. After struggling to open the year, Pineda has hit .293/.382/.470 since the start of July and gives them a solid bat. There is also Jared Carr and Cade Fergus if the BlueClaws want more defense. Both have some speed and and occasional pop.
Pitching
Getting into the postseason has used up some of the BlueClaws starters, but they still have some good ones available. Christian McGowan will go Game 1 and while he has only gone 4 innings in starts as he works back from Tommy John, his last 4 starts have been 15 IP 11 H 1 ER 4 BB 17 K. His fastball is sitting 93-95 and matching with a wipeout slider and a changeup that flashes good. Game 2 will go to Mitch Neunborn who has plenty of big game experience (he was a key WBC reliever for Australia). He has been going about 5 innings and has given 4 gems and 2 clunkers in his last 6 starts. If it gets to Game 3 or a championship round then Rafael Marcano, Gabriel Cotto, or Gunner Mayer could make a start. Samuel Aldegheri has not pitched since September 2, but if he is available he would give them another good starter.
The bullpen should be the strength of the BlueClaws. Rodolfo Sanchez, Jason Ruffcorn, and Matt Russell all have good stuff and clutch appearances, but are running high ERAs that bring some worries. Cam Wynne had a couple bad recent appearances, but is running a 2.55 ERA over 42.1 innings pitched. Jack Dallas and Wesley Moore followed up carrying the Threshers to a first half title with repeating the performance. Moore is currently on the IL, and if he is out that is a big loss but Dallas has gone multiple innings if needed. Konnor Ash has been great and can get multiple innings as well, as can Carlos Betancourt who has been the workhorse of the bullpen. Wen-Hui Pan has been a disaster with the BlueClaws, but when his fastball is on, he is capable of tearing through a lineup. The biggest innings will likely go to Andrew Walling who has a 3.24 ERA with Jersey Shore, but in his 16.2 innings he has walked 3 and struck out 27, and over his last 4 games has gone 5 IP 2 H 0 R 0 BB 7 K. He is especially a problem for left handed hitters who are hitting .083/.243/.117 off him for the season.
Overall
The Threshers face an uphill battle as much of their strength has gone to Jersey Shore and their opponent Lakeland has been strengthened. They have been tenacious all season and they still have enough talent to take the series. On the other side, the BlueClaws are the ones with reinforcements and their opponent Hudson Valley is the one that has sent some of their best up a level. The offense has not always been consistent and the bullpen hasn’t always played to their talent, but they have been one of the hottest teams in the minors for over a month playing high stakes games every night (including just taking 4 of 6 from Hudson Valley). The key will be if the bullpen can be shut down and shorten the games.