We are starting to enter the season of ordered lists of prospects. I have started on mine and have had a few run past me, and there is something very evident, the Phillies system is kind of dull. It isn’t surprising that they will likely be in the middle 10 of prospect lists this offseason. They still have depth, and they still have some elite prospects left, but with disappointing first round picks going back for a while, with the exception of Aaron Nola, it is surprising that there is a lack of punch at the top. The system has long been propped up by great Latin American prospects and trade acquisitions, offsetting some poor drafting.
The poor drafting, at least from a depth perspective is gone. Johnny Almaraz took over with the 2015 draft, and largely had a down first year. Scott Kingery is in Philly with mixed opinions, Cornelius Randolph is largely seen as a non-prospect as are Luke Williams and Kyle Martin. Bailey Falter, Luke Leftwich, and Tyler Gilbert all off some level of major league utility, but no one is going to devote much time to them. As will show up in later drafts, the hallmark of the Almaraz draft has been some late steals and Will Stewart (20th) and Ben Pelletier (34th) help this first draft.
Even with a snake bitten top of the 2016 draft the Phillies have churned out a steady diet of really solid prospects starting with JoJo Romero (4th) and Cole Irvin (5th) in the 2016 draft, and a long list in 2017 including Connor Seabold (3rd), Nick Maton (7th), Jake Holmes (11th), Zach Warren (14th), Kyle Dohy (16th), David Parkinson (12th), Austin Listi (17th), and others. Even missing two picks in 2018, the Phillies walked away with Colton Eastman (4th) and Matt Vierling (5th) that look really solid. While first rounders Alec Bohm and Adam Haseley have not lit the world on fire, both still are fine prospects. The Phillies have even gotten some breakouts with Spencer Howard (2017-2nd), Kyle Young (2016-22nd), and Logan O’Hoppe (2018-23rd). It is a lot of depth, not a lot of stars, but it is enough to say, the Phillies’ drafting (outside the jury still being out on the 1st round) is solid, and not an absolute killer like many of the years before.
Obviously trades have not been a big source of prospects, with the Ken Giles trade being the last big sell trade for the Phillies, and that was 3 years ago. However, Enyel De Los Santos had a good year, and Victor Arano was very good before graduating, but there is no star from that group.
This leaves the one big thing that has propped the Phillies up for years. Their international spending. This year, the 2014 July 2 class of Phillies prospects hit the Rule 5 draft eligibility mark and Arquimedes Gamboa joined late 2013-2014 signees Edgar Garcia and Adonis Medina as additions to the roster. Next year, the late signees of the July 2014 class join the July 2015 class in that spot with Sixto Sanchez, Mauricio Llovera, and Rodolfo Duran joining the last Ruben Amaro era class of Jhailyn Ortiz, Rafael Marchan, Manuel Silva, and Jonathan Guzman. It is a group of prospect names we have grown accustomed to seeing both for the bonuses, and their breakouts.
This brings us to three signing classes under Matt Klnetak’s tenure. In 2016 the Phillies were armed with the largest signing pool in baseball and went on a spending spree.
| $900,000 | Brayan Gonzalez |
| $750,000 | Simon Muzziotti |
| $720,000 | Francisco Morales |
| $665,000 | Nicolas Torres |
| $475,000 | Juan Aparicio |
| $450,000 | Jose Tortolero |
| $400,000 | Raymond Mora |
| $350,000 | Luiggi Mujica |
| $200,000 | Dalvin Rosario |
| $150,000 | Luis Rojas |
| $150,000 | Maximo De La Rosa |
| $150,000 | Victor Santos |
| $110,000 | Luis Matos |
| $100,000 | Juan Herrera |
| $85,000 | Christian Valerio |
The following year they traded for a bunch of money and went on a spree as well
| $2,500,000 | Luis J Garcia |
| $550,000 | Abrahan Gutierrez |
| $525,000 | Victor Vargas |
| $500,000 | Cesar Rodriguez |
| $460,000 | Alfonso Puello |
| $450,000 | Carlos Betancourt |
| $250,000 | Hsin-Chieh Lin |
| $135,000 | Oscar Gonzalez |
| $100,000 | Mitchell Warke-Edwards |
| $90,000 | Alberto Torres |
We don’t know anything about the 2018 class outside of it being highlighted by two long and projectable pitchers (RHP Fernando Ortega and LHP Joalbert Angulo) and a hard throwing short one (RHP Starlyn Castill0).
Of all of this spending in 2016 and 2017, only 3 prospects are locks to be in the top 20, SS Luis Garcia (who looks like a star), RHP Francisco Morales, and OF Simon Muzziotti. RHP Victor Santos, 2B Nicolas Torres, C Abrahan Gutierrez, and 2B Brayan Gonzalez might make the top 50. Now, the Phillies haven’t always nailed their international big money signings. It took years for Deivi Grullon and Jose Pujols to look like borderline MLBers, they lost Carlos Tocci in the Rule 5 draft, they released Luis Encarnacion, and things did not go well for Jhailyn Ortiz this year. However there was a constant each year for the Phillies, and it was that from Franklyn Kilome onward, some no name pitcher would breakout in the low minors. Here are the Latin American pitchers to make starts each year for the GCL Phillies.
- 2014: Luis Morales, Franklyn Kilome, Lewis Alezones, Elniery Garcia, Yoel Mecias
- 2015: Felix Paulino, Adonis Medina, Ranger Suarez, Lewis Alezones, Carlos Indriago, Ismael Cabrera, Edgar Garcia, Seranthony Dominguez
- 2016: Sixto Sanchez, Mauricio Llovera, Luis Carrasco
- 2017: Francisco Morales, Manuel Silva, Jose Jimenez, Victor Sobil
- 2018 (two teams): Victor Vargas, Rafi Gonell, Antonio Canizalez, Jose Conopoima, Eudiver Avendano, Leonel Aponte, Victor Santos, Carlos Francisco, Jonas De La Cruz, Gabriel Yanez
This is the point where I would normally tell you that one of these names that you think I just made up throws in the mid 90s and you should pay attention to them, but there isn’t one. On the 2017 list, Morales is a top prospect, he was paid like a top prospect. Manuel Silva is a solid back end starter type lefty. Victor Santos was the “breakout” guy this year, throwing 59.1 innings with 3.03 ERA and 4 walks to 65 strikeouts, but he is more of a back-end type guy, with a good changeup and a fastball that will get up to 93.
Now it is hard to know why things have dried up, especially when the Phillies have theoretically put more money into acquiring the latin american pitchers they want. A lot of this is luck and fortune, and it is possible the Phillies are stumbling onto back fields with these guys anymore. It could be other teams are finding them more and carving into some of the Phillies’ advantages. They could be signing, but not developing them. No matter the reason, the breakout pitcher in the low minors is not a thing that has happened in the past two seasons and it leaves the Phillies pretty boring in the low minors.
All of this could change in an instant, but under Matt Klentak and Johnny Almaraz, the Phillies have plugged the hole with their drafting, but there is a talent stream now run dry.
It could well be poor hitting instruction, which seems to be the conclusion that the Phillies PTB have reached, since they’ve canned Jordan and 4 of his hitting instructors.