The Draft Philes 2018: Matthew Liberatore

It’s April 27th and things are going pretty decent for the big club right now at 15-9. Meanwhile, the the team’s talent pool in the minors has had it’s ups and downs in the small sample size arena. And then of course, there’s been buzz around the city in other areas. There is much excitement in the city this week with the Sixers advancing to the second round of the playoffs and the defending Super Bowl Champion Eagles adding some more talent in this weekend’s NFL draft.

With all this excitement, it’s easy to forget June 4th is just around the corner, where on that night the Phillies will be picking in the top 10 for the 5th straight year at #3 overall. This is a pretty important pick for the Phillies for a couple of reasons. The first being that the Phillies do not own a second and third round pick this year due to the signings of Carlos Santana and Jake Arrieta. Not only does this hurt chances of getting more talent in higher rounds, but it also drops their bonus pool value from a potential $11 million to $8,858,000, which is nearly the same value they had at #7 overall last year. That would be the 12th largest pool in the draft instead of closer to the top, so there’s not a lot of potential for extreme creativity like in 2016. The second reason is that considering the trajectory of the organization, they expect to be competitive over the next 5-7 years. So this is probably their last time they will get to draft this high as they will likely be in the 15-30 range for awhile.

The Phillies have a plethora of talent to choose from at #3 and I will say I do like the talent at the top of the draft this year than I did in 2016 (2017 was too good), when the team selected Mickey Moniak #1 overall. This is also a class where the pitching talent is more favorable at the top than the position player. So I want to begin the 2018 Draft Philes with my personal favorite, Matthew Liberatore. My very first article on this site last year was the lack of starting pitching from the left side. And while I have a bit more confidence now in lefties like JoJo Romero and Ranger Suarez, this is still a department in the system that lacks a that special southpaw (whether starting or in relief). That’s where Liberatore comes in. He exploded on to the scene during the summer circuit jumping his velocity from 85-88 mph to the low 90s showing impressive command and a wipeout curve. His stock has not fallen like some of his other fellow high school pitchers since that time (Ethan Hankins, Kumar Rocker) as he has remained consistent and flashed some of his other pitches this spring. On most boards across the internet he’s continuously a top three draft prospect.

Since Johnny Almaraz became the amateur scouting director in after the 2014 season, the Phillies have not taken a pitcher with a first round pick (Randolph, Moniak, Haseley). The Phillies also haven’t really been too keen on taking a high school pitcher within the first four rounds with Kevin Gowdy (2nd rd, 2016) being the lone exception. In a couple of early mocks, Liberatore has been available when the Phillies pick and a college bat has been the selection for the most part. Other than Sixto Sanchez, the ceilings amongst the current group of full season pitching prospects are mostly back-end starter (Spencer Howard and Adonis Medina might be more #3 types). This is an organization that could use another high quality arm to develop regardless, particularly from the left side. Early indications are that they have looked at the top college bats more closely than the top arms. Of course, there are more scouting trips that we are not hearing about and it only the end of April, so we will likely hear more names in the coming weeks. But in my opinion, if Casey Mize goes #1, Liberatore is the second best prospect in this class and should be had by the Phillies.

Matthew Liberatore, Mountain Ridge HS (AZ)

6’5″, 200 lbs

Bats/Throws: L/L

Commitment: Arizona

Rankings (as of 4/26/18): Baseball America #3, MLB.com #3, Perfect Game #2, ESPN #3

Pitch-Mix

Fastball has good running, sinking action at 90-93 mph; can pull back and get it up in 94-95 range, touching 97; shows slightly above average command of his fastball, keeps the it down consistently. Plus curveball, mid-70s, tight spin, sharp 12-to-6 dive. Change-up has average potential, lot of fade to armside in the low 80s. Recently added a slider according to recent reports, not much more information available.

Mechanics, Weaknesses and more Notes

Release point from his 3/4 arm action can get be a bit erratic at times. Most reports have had him as a slow starter before finishing strong. Changes tempo, mixes pitches fairly well, keeping hitters off-balance; comfortable starting at-bats with secondary pitches. When he tries to go with a quick tempo too often, he can lose some feel on his pitches. There are times his change-up does flash plus movement, but it’s not always consistent.

Overall Assessment

Liberatore is probably the most complete high school pitcher in this draft class with good size, good command of his fastball and a plus curve. The attempt to add a slider has certainly caught scout’s attention to the point. Without much of a dropoff in stuff or injury, he’s has been slowly cementing himself as a top 5 lock with over a month to go. He does have more room to grow physically and that could lead to his velocity sitting in the 92-95 range more so than low 90s. Liberatore has the makings of a frontline starter with his composure and a good fastball/curve combo, but two things will have to happen for him to get to that level. He’ll have to make his change-up or his new slider a reliable, consistent third pitch and whoever grabs him will have to clean up his mechanics to make him consistent for seven plus innings, instead of five. The slow starts he has had in high school will be significantly worse in the pros.