The 2017 Draft Is Providing Relief

Every draft pick matters. It is a concept that makes sense on paper, but when you start to see picks come off the board on Day 3 of the draft, it is much easier to see the low minors roster depth than actual talent. While teams can give any player picked after the 10th round a $125,000 signing bonus that won’t count against their overall pool, it doesn’t seem that many teams take full advantage of it. In the 2017 draft, the Phillies started to (a trend they would put into overdrive in 2018). It is easy to look at 12th round pick David Parkinson, who is having a spectacular year, and see the $250,000 signing bonus and realize he was a polished college junior who probably should have gone in the 5th to 7th rounds. What is harder to see is the collection of arms with subpar college track records and see the potential.

Round 10 – Connor Brogdon – RHP – Senior – Lewis Clark State – $5,000
Round 14 – Zach Warren – LHP – Junior – Tennessee – $125,000
Round 16 – Kyle Dohy – LHP – Junior – Cal Poly Pomona – $125,000
Round 19 – Addison Russ – RHP – Senior – Houston Baptist – $5,000
Round 21 – Jakob Hernandez – LHP – Junior – University of Texas Arlington – $100,000

Those are the guys currently relieving. The Phillies took HS SS Jake Holmes in the 11th (Holmes got $500,000 due to the strangeness of the draft that encourages teams to wait on taking tough sign HSers), college junior catch Colby Fitch in the 13, arm strength reliever in Alex Garcia in the 15th, 5 year college senior and current AA masher Austin Listi in the 17th, and current Lakewood starter and likely future reliever Damon Jones in the 18th. It was a nice little run.

Of the 5 relievers, only Warren came from a big time program, and he was coming off a year where he had a 6.31 ERA in 51 innings, while walking 29 and only striking out 34. Dohy had a 5.99 ERA as a division 2 starter and walked a batter per inning in Williamsport. Russ was a starter with pedestrian numbers as a senior. Brogdon had a great year, but it was at a NAIA school in Idaho. Hernandez had a great year at smaller school in a conference that existed, but nothing big name. They all showed up in pro ball, and were solid, but no one was a must see player. This year, Hernandez went straight to Clearwater and the other 4 went to Lakewood with Brogdon in a starting rotation. Brogdon would make 7 starts before joining everyone else in the bullpen. Then they all did this as relievers.

Now Dohy has finally met his match in Reading, and only Brogdon and Warren remain in Lakewood. This will matter for the minor league playoffs (more on that later), but this wouldn’t be much of a column if these were all org players going to help their teams in the minor league playoffs. So are these guys legitimate pitchers to care about? Yes.

Connor Brogdon – Brogdon is a fastball-changeup righty, will throw a slider and is learning Zach Warren’s curveball. He is a big (6’6″), skinny dude, who actually has pretty good present velocity, sitting 93-95, touching 96 for Jeff the other night. He is going to be 24 next year, so it is unlikely he adds a ton, but right now there might be enough to work things into a middle reliever profile.

Zach Warren – Warren is a big tall, lanky lefty who has struggled with repeating his delivery over the years. Right now he sits 93-94 with his fastball and will touch 95. His low 80s curveball is his devastating pitch as he uses his full height to get down on the pitch. Warren has been solid against righties, but devastating to lefties and profiles a lot like current Phillies reliever Austin Davis.

Kyle Dohy – Dohy changed up his delivery and slider grip in the offseason. He sits low to mid 90s with his fastball, and his slider is a plus pitch. He will also flash an interesting changeup, and his delivery is hard on lefties. He has had some control issues late in the year, but profiles as a major league pitcher as soon as 2019.

Jakob Hernandez – Hernandez is the anomaly in the group. His fastball sits in the hi-80s and will bump 90. His breaking ball is solid, and his delivery is hard for batters to read. He profiles more as a LOOGY in the long run.

Addison Russ – Russ is a real marker of what relief pitchers has become. He is a short 23 year old reliever who happens to be touching up to 95. He leans heavily on a splitter that he will use in any count, and profiles as a middle reliever if it all works.

In the near term, Lakewood is in the playoffs and Clearwater is nearly there. That means Brogdon, Warren, Hernandez, and Russ are going to be leaned on heavily. In particular much is going to fall on the Lakewood duo. All year the BlueClaws have leaned heavily on their pitching staff to carry them. However with Dohy, Russ, Parkinson, and Rosso all promoted and then end of long seasons facing Will Stewart and Damon Jones, it is going to be the bullpen that will need to carry Lakewood in the playoffs. In July and August the pair has been up to the task, they have combined to pitch 41 innings, allowing 18 hits and 3 earned runs, while walking only 13 and striking out 70. Warren in particular is on a stretch of dominance having struck out 20 of the 30 batters he has faced in August. All of this from some guys picked late enough in a draft that no one really noticed.