Starting Off Right: Game Reports from Reading and Lakewood (Week of 4/9/18)

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The minor league season has kicked off, which means it’s time for more in-depth analysis and live in-game video to share with everybody. In the first week of games, I experienced two different weather conditions. On Tuesday I watch 10 of 13 innings in Reading, where I watch Ranger Suarez battle the bitter cold and the offense being a now show. On Friday, the weather in Lakewood was a beautiful 70 degrees around game time for a pitcher’s duel featuring Spencer Howard. Below are reports on the two games featuring pitching and position player reports on Phillies prospects. I will also be starting a new segment in my game coverage where I highlight one prospect from the opposing side for each game this season. Let the 2018 adventures begin!

Reading vs Portland (4/10/18)

*I would end up staying only through the 10th inning and did not witness innings 11-13*

Pitching Report

  • Last year, I missed a couple of opportunities to watch Ranger Suarez, most notably his start for Lakewood in which he took a no-hitter into the eighth. Suarez was coming off a rough first start in which he allowed seven runs on nine hits and three walks in three innings of work. Suarez would end up showing a much better performance in outing number two. While the box score says no errors, Suarez was let down by a couple of miscues in the fourth, when Randolph had trouble picking up the ball on Matheny’s double to allow the first run to score. The very next batter would hit a ball to short that went under the glove of Emmanuel Marrero to allow run #2 to score. Other than that, Suarez was pretty much flawless in his six innings of work. He would allow six hits, walk none and strike out six throwing 97 pitches (69 strikes). When nobody is on base, Suarez works fairly quickly much like fellow top pitching prospects Sixto Sanchez and Adonis Medina. He pounds his fastball down in the strike zone consistently which shows good armside run. Last year, Suarez was topping 93-95 mph with his four seam fastball thanks to some mechanical. On Tuesday, he was more 89-91 mph, relying more on his two-seam than his four seam fastball. His slider (81-83) was probably his second best pitch of the night, showing good spin and some break but looked pretty average. But the location of the pitch was good as it got hitters off-balance. His change-up (83-85) showed some good fade and he threw that pitch more exclusively to right-handers to generate more weak contact and swings and misses. He didn’t have much feel for the few times he threw his curve (79-81), which had 1/7 tilt and a big break but got too slurvy. Suarez has the profile of a back-end starter (average stuff, efficient), but I’ll be curious to see if he shows more velocity as the season goes on.
    • 57 fastballs (58.8%), 15 change-ups (15.5%), 21 sliders (21.6%), four curveballs (4.1%)
      • 4/14, 2 K (one look, one swing), four groundouts, two fly outs, one lineout on fastball
      • 0/2, two swinging strikeouts on change-up
      • 1/6, one swinging strikeout, two groundouts, two flyouts on slider
      • 1/2, double, swinging strikeout on curve
    • 15/24 1st Pitch strikes; 12 fastballs, two sliders, one change-up; balls were five fastballs, two sliders, one change-up, one curve
    • First pitch: 0/3; Ahead 0-1: 2/12, 3 K; Behind 1-0: 4/9, 3 K, 2B
    • Six groundouts, four flyouts
    • LH hitters: 2/8, 2 K (both swinging, one slider, one curve); RH hitters: 4/16, 2B, 4 K (two swinging change-ups; two fastballs: one looking, one swinging)
    • 12 swinging strikes (12.4%); five on sliders, four on change-ups, two on fastballs, one on a curve)
    • 11 at-bats went five pitches or more (4/11, 2B, 5 K); seven at-bats went two pitches or less (1/7)

Position Player Report

  • Not much went right on Tuesday night with the position players as they got their runs more by luck and good situations (extra inning rule with runner starting on 2B) than excellent hitting. Cornelius Randolph had two prime opportunities with the bases loaded and came up empty both times. In the first inning with two out he would hit a weak fly ball to left to end the threat. In the sixth, a run would score on a wild pitch, but with runners on second and third now with one out he would go down on a questionable looking third strike. This is a pretty big year for the 2015 first round pick. While the discipline has always been there the results haven’t showed up yet. Perhaps when the weather warms up a little more we will start seeing more results, particularly with his power.

Opposition Player Spotlight

  • CF Tate Matheny, the son of Cardinals’ manager Mike, probably had the best offensive display from either side. After hitting a dribbler to 3B for an infield single his first trip, he would rip a low liner down the LF line on a hanging curve that brought home the game’s first run. In his third at-bat vs Suarez, he smoked one to right side of the infield but Zach Green was in the right place at the right time. After grounding out into a double play vs Seth McGarry in the eighth, he would line a single into RF. He ended up going 3/5 with a double, a walk, two RBI and two runs scored. Tate is 24 years old and has posted a .255 average and .675 OPS for his career. He is likely an organizational depth outfielder than anything else.

Lakewood vs Delmarva (4/13/18)

Pitching Report

  • I ended up watching Spencer Howard’s first career start last July in Williamsport. While he scuffled in his two innings, the pure stuff that I saw made me understand why he was the Phillies 2nd round pick last June. On Friday, Howard was mired in a pitcher’s duel with Delmarva’s fireballer Matthias Dietz (more on him later). Howard was coming off a three inning outing in his first start in which he allowed one run and struck seven. He would go a little longer this time throwing 83 pitches (54 strikes) in five innings of work. He allowed four hits, one run, walked none and struck out six. Howard really only allowed one hard hit on the night on a double in the fourth that just got by Jake Scheiner at 1B. That run then scored on a single to an empty right side of the infield on an overshift the very next batter.  Howard used his fastball over 3/4 of his outing. After starting the outing the first couple of innings at 94-96 mph (topped out at 97), he settled down towards the end at 92-94.  Early on he was yanking some of those fastballs in the dirt or up high. That was effective in the first inning as he got all three lefties he faced in the first swinging at high fastballs. When he went through the lineup the second time, he took some of that velocity off his fastball and threw some more efficient ones around the zone. He threw his fastball and cutter (85-88) all but three of his 42 pitches the first time through. He ended up throwing 12 curves/change-ups/sliders out of 41 pitches the second time through the lineup. His curve (76-79) was probably more prominent, showing slight tilt and a big break. His slider (84-87) can look similar to his cutter, but it’s got a little more bend to it and some more sweep. The change-up (82-84) got flat a couple of times and didn’t some much fade or sink to it. Howard’s stuff should be enough to get him the big leagues. His slider is a really good pitch and the way he was throwing his curve he could have three average to above-average pitches. This comes down to command/control of his arsenal if he’s going to be a mid-rotation starter. He already has 13 K to one walk in eight innings, so so far so good on that. He’s going to strike out a ton of batters in the South Atlantic League this year.
    • 64 fastballs (77.1%), seven curveballs (8.4%), four cutters (4.8%), four change-ups (4.8%), four sliders (4.8%)
      • 3/15, 2B, 5 K, (four swinging, one looking), two groundouts, two flyouts, three pop-ups on fastball
      • 1/2, 2B, K (swinging) on curveball
      • 0/1, groundout on slider
    • 12/18 1st Pitch strikes; 11 on fastballs, one cutter; balls were four fastballs, one change-up, one curveball
    • First pitch: 1/2, 2B; Ahead 0-1: 3/10, 2B, 3 K; Behind 1-0: 0/6, 3 K
    • LH hitters: 3/12, 2 2B, 5 K (three swinging on fastball, one looking at fastball, one swinging on curve), two pop-ups, one flyout, one groundout; RH hitters: 1/6, K (swinging on fastball), two groundouts, one pop-up, one flyout
    • 13 swinging strikes (15.7%); ten on fastballs, three on curveballs
    • 11 at-bats went five pitches or more (3/11, 5 K, 2 2B); three at-bats went two pitches or less
  • Zach Warren did not pan out in his three years at Tennessee where he was mainly a starter. He ended up posting a 4.98 ERA in 149.1 innings. Still the Phillies saw enough to take him early on the third day of the draft with their 14th round selection.  With his struggles in the rotation in college, the Phillies moved him into the pen. Last year in Williamsport, he threw 33 innings out of the bullpen allowing 11 ER while striking out 40 and walking 15. Last night he was fairly strong striking out six and walking none in 2.1 innings out of the pen. He did unfortunately allowed a two run home run that extended the deficit to four runs in the ninth. Nonetheless, the 6’5″ Vineland, NJ native has some good stuff that makes him a very intriguing southpaw reliever. Warren sat 93 mph on his fastball, touching 95 with slightly below average command. His curve has big depth, 1/7 tilt in the low 80s and was probably the best of his secondary pitches. He also showed off a couple of sliders in the mid 80s and a change-up. Warren could be a nice little find from last year’s class, but time will tell.

Position Player Report

  • Nick Maton didn’t make the Minor Thoughts top 50 list this year and I thought it was pretty close. But I like his chances to crack the list next year. Early in the season, Maton has been showing more power. On Friday night with two out in the sixth, he would end up working a full count before slapping one down the LF line for an RBI double to tie the game at one. He would then add drop a single into shallow left in the eighth. After a three hit game on Saturday, Maton is hitting .357 with four doubles and two home runs.. While he has no walks to this point,  he’s not swinging wildly at a lot of bad pitches and working counts. Maton won’t be slugging 20+ home runs, but if he’s raking doubles and hitting to all fields, his stock will take a big hike.

  • It has been a struggle for the 19 year old Jhailyn Ortiz so far this season and it didn’t get any better last night. He ended up getting three sliders his first AB for a strikeout and he went down quickly each at bat. He was essentially the only hitter through the first time through the order that got more than two plus non-fastballs. He ended up striking out two more times his next three at-bats. He now has struck out 14 times in 34 trips to the plate. That’s a 41.2% strikeout rate to go along with just three singles and three walks. It will clearly be a struggle for a bit longer for the teenager with big power, but I do expect he’ll break out of it. Before back-to-back three strikeout games, he reached base twice in three straight games. On the positive, while he isn’t the most ideal outfielder (he was slow getting to some balls), he did throw a strike to the plate to prevent a run.

Opposition Player Spotlight

  • Matthias Dietz, a 2016 second round pick by the Orioles out of community college, had the fans around me buzzing, showing off his mid to upper 90s fastball. A consensus top 30 Baltimore prospect, he sat 95-97 mph during the night bottoming out at 92 and topping out at 98. His mechanics make it a real weapon as it comes out of a low 3/4 arm action, showing some good arm side run. He’s also quick to the plate, not showing much of lift in his front leg.  He was nailing called strikes inside to the lefties bats in the Lakewood lineup. His slider has tight spin and he used it more in his final two innings of work more so than the first four. The only hard hit he allowed really was Maton’s double. While he has time to develop as a starter at just 22 years old, he will likely transfer to the bullpen where his plus two pitches will play much better. Dietz is in his second go around in Delmarva after posting a 4.93 ERA in nearly 130 innings last year. He will likely be called up to high A probably in May or June, if not for his performance than for new roster additions from extended spring training and the draft.

 

Photo of Ranger Suarez courtesy of Bryan Green