News broke on Wednesday that RHP Noah Song’s time in active service was ending and that he would be reporting to Phillies Spring Training. The Phillies acquired Song in the Rule 5 draft, selecting him off of Boston’s AAA roster. Song was a 4th round pick in the 2019 draft, but would have been a 1st round pick had he not had his Naval commitment.
When Last We Saw Noah Song…
Song was one of the best pitchers in college baseball in 2019, pitching 94 innings at Navy with a 1.44 ERA and 31 walks (3.0/9) to 161 strikeouts (15.4/9). He then pitched 17 innings of dominant baseball in the New York-Penn League before then pitching for Team USA. Song’s fastball sat in the mid 90s, touching up to 98 with good attributes. He showed a plus slider and some reported the changeup was average and flashing up to plus as well. He had a curveball as well, but it lagged behind the other pitches. He projected as at least a mid rotation starter, but there was some upside beyond that. He had a high ceiling as a reliever given the fastball and slider.
What is Noah Song now?
¯_(ツ)_/¯
He has supposedly been throwing with others, but not in a game, and supposedly off a mound for the first time this week. We may learn more in the next few weeks, but it probably will take him a while to knock off all of the rust.
The Technical Details
The Phillies will need to add Song to the 40 man roster at the end of Spring Training as he no longer qualifies for the Military list. They can do this easily by moving Bryce Harper to the 60 day IL. They would still need another 40 man spot if Andrew Painter makes the roster, but Song making the roster would probably kill any chance Andrew Vasquez makes it, and Vasquez is out of options so his spot would become available. The Phillies can option Song to AAA only if he has spent all of 2023 on the active roster or IL AND he has spent at least 90 days on the active roster. That means if he spends 90 days on the active roster this year he still must make it through the end of the year, and if he makes it through the end of the year without 90 days on the active roster (because of IL stints) he must get to that 90 day mark in future years before he can be optioned.
If the Phillies do not want to carry him on the roster they can do one of three things. They can put him on waivers where any team may claim him and carry him with Rule 5 restrictions, or they can trade him to another team who would then have him Rule 5 restrictions. In this case, a trade is just a team jumping the waiver order to claim him, so I would not expect a big return, especially since the Phillies would be saying they don’t think he is worth keeping. IF he clears waivers, the Red Sox may pay the team that owns his rights and re-add him back into their organization, or they can let that team keep him. The Phillies could also trade with the Red Sox for Song’s rights and lift the Rule 5 restrictions, but that feels highly unlikely.
So What Happens Now
The first thing is just seeing what Song looks like. The Phillies will be looking for two things. How he can help them this year on the roster, and what is his long term upside? This season will entirely be as a reliever because there just is no way he could get ramped up to a starting workload safely. Given the Phillies postseason aspirations, they aren’t going to be able to just play with a 25 man roster all season, so Song will need to provide at least some amount of major league innings in order for them to carry him.
This is where this gets complicated to start. The Phillies have 7 bullpen locks and 4 starter locks, and if Andrew Painter breaks camp with the team it is very likely that 8th bullpen spot would have gone to a dedicated long man in either Bailey Falter or Nick Nelson. It is likely that someone (possibly even Song) gets banged up this spring and starts on the IL. Over the course of the year, it is likely this will occur more and more. In order to carry Song all year, it might require careful management and shuttling of depth to and from Lehigh Valley. There is almost no way Song doesn’t end up on the IL for a stint this year, whether it is an oblique, arm fatigue, or something more serious, he just has not thrown in a long time. If he does get injured, the 90 day counter becomes really important, because the Phillies can send him on rehab appearances during IL stints, but they will really want to cross that 90 day mark if possible so that this does not linger in 2024.
Song’s arrival in camp clears up one unknown, but it just pulls forward a lot of questions we had been waiting to ask. The next month may help answer some, but it all could ask more.
What are the qualifications for the military list? Does the fact that Song was not discharged from the Navy (only from active duty), transferred to the selective Naval Reserve and he still has military obligations (2 weeks/yr, monthly meetings) matter? Does he still qualify as a Military exemptions?
My guess is that it may matter when he has commitments, but not during other times. I don’t know the rules deeply