We are currently 6 games into Spring Training, a time when we are still seeing minor league players get into games and the novelty of the return of major league baseball has not worn off. There are very few actual takeaways one can make from 6 games, and especially 6 games where a starting pitcher has gone one or maybe two innings. It is encouraging to see a player be patient, or for them to go hunting for power early. There is only so much to be gleaned from a player turning around a 90mph fastball in the middle of the zone. All that being said, the beginning of Spring Training, especially with minor league pitchers in games, is the time to see what things have changed, particularly in pitch arsenals. Not every change will stay into the regular season, for example Jose Alvarado toyed around with his curveball last spring, and then never threw it during the season. The changes however can give a glimpse into what the team or player is thinking.
The Phillies are pitching maximalists. Spring is the time to tinker with new pitches, but it feels at times like the Phillies really take things to an extreme. There was a recent movement in pitch usage that said to just get a really good pitch and just throw it more. There are certainly pitches that can handle that sort of usage, but they are not nearly as common as they may be perceived to be. What does come out of that school of thought is that maybe a pitcher should not be throwing their primary fastball 50%+ of the time. That has often meant throwing a good offspeed pitch more, but in the case of the Phillies this has often come with an expanded arsenal, giving a pitcher a larger selection of weapons to work with.
On the second game of Spring Training, Mick Abel got an inning of work and looked fairly impressive doing it. For me, the big question would be whether he kept the same pitch mix changes he made at the end of last year. Here is the Statcast data from his one inning (with some pitch classification updates).
| Pitch Type | Velocity | Spin | VBreak | HBreak | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 96.4 | 2340 | 13 | ↓ | 1 | → |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 96.2 | 2285 | 11 | ↓ | 2 | → |
| Sinker | 95.9 | 2231 | 18 | ↓ | 8 | → |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 95.6 | 2418 | 15 | ↓ | 4 | → |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 95.6 | 2560 | 12 | ↓ | 2 | → |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 95.3 | 2318 | 14 | ↓ | 2 | → |
| Sinker | 95.2 | 2197 | 19 | ↓ | 8 | → |
| Sinker | 94.6 | 2316 | 19 | ↓ | 9 | → |
| Sinker | 94.1 | 2369 | 17 | ↓ | 7 | → |
| Changeup | 87.0 | 1661 | 33 | ↓ | 8 | → |
| Slider | 86.0 | 2374 | 41 | ↓ | 6 | ← |
| Slider | 85.3 | 2339 | 41 | ↓ | 5 | ← |
| Slider | 84.9 | 2325 | 41 | ↓ | 4 | ← |
| Slider | 83.8 | 2258 | 45 | ↓ | 6 | ← |
| Curveball | 80.9 | 2506 | 56 | ↓ | 15 | ← |
| Curveball | 79.4 | 2490 | 58 | ↓ | 17 | ← |
I updated the fastball classifications to show the differences, but you can see in the movement that Mick is throwing two distinct fastballs. The other pitch is the slider, which he is throwing the gyro slider that is much more vertical and less sweepy than his curveball. Both these pitches can be thrown more in the strike zone and that was immediately successful with the slider in his appearance. The broadcast did a small picture in picture, so doing any delivery breakdowns isn’t actually going to be very successful.
On Wednesday, the Phillies sent Tyler Phillips to the mound. Phillips just missed my prospect list because he is 26, had poor results in AA and AAA, and his stuff was ordinary. Phillips came out firing in his appearance sitting 94 to 96 in his two innings, after averaging 92.3 in AAA with a max of 94.9. Phillips primarily throws a sinker, and it wasn’t sinking quite as much (more on that with a different pitcher later). However, whereas Mick Abel is adding a sinker, Phillips threw 4 pitches labeled as 4-Seam Fastballs. They marginally had less sink, but they had a sizeable separation in horizontal movement. It is unlikely to be a primary fastball for him, but Phillips lacked bat missing qualities to his arsenal, and it might give him another pitch he can miss a bat with. In addition to seeing if he can hold the higher velocity it will be important to see if the changes will help his breaking balls, because he still will need to miss more bats to have success in a rotation.
On the subject of sinkers sinking, the topic of Cristopher Sánchez has been a hot topic. He is throwing a cutter to help with the problems with his slider and to maybe offset any regression that may happen with his sinker and changeup. As Sánchez throws harder the risk is that his fastball and changeup flatten out. Normally a pitch having less sink is good, and velocity is also good. However, part of Sánchez’s success has come from throwing his fastball and changeup with near league leading sink and vertical angle. This lead to high ground ball rates and overall poor contact quality for opposing batters. Currently the increased velocity is small sample size, but it will be something to closely monitor over the spring.
Just some other random thoughts.
- It is easy to see why the Phillies acquired Michael Mercado. Things did not go great in his first appearance, but the velocity is already there early in camp and he at one point in his second appearance got three consecutive swings and misses on three different pitches. He is apparently throwing a splitter, and his arsenal definitely lacks an armside option.
- Max Castillo looked like a real pitcher today. I don’t think he is a real option for anything meaningful, but he looked like he might have an arsenal that might survive 3-5 innings of work on a double header or the like. His changeup is definitely his best pitch.
- Andrew Schultz, Brett Schulze, and Austin Brice blew three consecutive 9th innings. Brice had an outside chance at being MLB depth as a AAA call up, but none are particularly high on the depth chart. The Phillies don’t have infinite depth, but RH RPs in AAA might end up being a place of strength. The Phillies aren’t going to be able to keep all of these arms, and this is likely becoming as much a competition for AAA and AA roster spots given the minor league crunch as it is for MLB spots.
- Nick Nelson also has not looked particularly good, and they essentially buried him in AAA last year as well. Spencer Turnbull has not yet made an appearance, and Kolby Allard has looked like Kolby Allard. In the long run, it would be good if guys like Tyler Phillips and Mick Abel were the depth starters, but it also isn’t great to not be able to count on newfangled depth additions.
- Orion Kerkering is still a monster, and 30+ inches of horizontal separation between his sinker and sweeper is going to be problems because he is going to be able to run the sinker up and away on the same tunnel has a sweeper in on the hands to lefties.