Reflecting on the Beginning: 2013 Top 30

It is hard during this time of year to interact with prospects without running into a ranking list. This got me thinking about the first ranking I wrote and how results don’t equal the process. I had been writing for Phuture Phillies for a few months and had somehow ended up as the de facto head writer, so I thought I would write a list. It was a list built of aggregation of public sources, then spun with my own valuations and opinions. It turns out if you don’t want to be embarrassed by the numbers it isn’t a bad way to rank prospects. You will get some wrong, but you won’t look like an idiot by the number in front of a player’s name. But that isn’t evaluation, and most of my projections are overly optimistic, my risks are too low, and my writing lacks substance. So this exercise is multifaceted. I want to look at how someone is right or wrong about prospects, and whether it is their fault. I want to think about how I would view the same players now. I also want to explore how some players have changed over the years.

Here is the list if you want to critique along, but I won’t make you do it.

The Top 10:

1. Jesse Biddle
2. Adam Morgan
3. Roman Quinn
4. Tommy Joseph
5. Ethan Martin
6. Maikel Franco
7. Cody Asche
8. Carlos Tocci
9. Jonathan Pettibone
10. Shane Watson

I don’t actually think there is anything really wrong with this order. I think I overrate Ethan Martin’s raw stuff and should have bought into Maikel Franco’s second half adjustments a bit more (For Lakewood 1st Half – .207/.269/.338, 2nd Half – .346/.395/.530). It turns out that all 5 pitchers on this list had career altering arm injuries. Morgan and Watson came back with reduced stuff. Pettibone and Martin are out of baseball and Biddle is recovering from Tommy John surgery with Atlanta. Quinn was coming off a good year in Williamsport and was still at shortstop with some hope he would stay there. He also had not yet had any injury problems. Asche was near major league ready, between this point and the majors he would decide he would need to hit for power more and his ability to make contact went away. Carlos Tocci is virtually the same player he is now, only at this point he was coming off a good year in the GCL at age 16. Shane Watson had the potential to be very good, and I have forgotten about that since the injuries.

The Unspeakable 4:

11. Larry Greene Jr.
12. Mitch Gueller
13. Phillippe Aumont
14. Darin Ruf

Greene showed up out of shape and had to go to Williamsport where he was good outside of never hitting for power. He showed up even more out of shape the next year, had a horrible year in Lakewood and then never played another pro game. Gueller peaked in the GCL on a down year. His stuff would never be the same and regress every year. I don’t know what you can take away other than don’t count on velocity growth, for some HS pitchers, moving to a pro schedule can cause velocity loss. Believe it or now, Aumont went from walking everyone to walking most people, but he struck batters out. He even made the majors. He then went back to not knowing what the strike zone. His pitches are still some of the best I have ever seen (remember when he did this). Darin Ruf followed this up by spending 4 years in the majors and compiling -1.0 bWAR, this seems right to me.

The Perfectly Fine 5:

15. Dylan Cozens
16. Justin De Fratus
17. Andrew Pullin
18. Austin Wright
19. Zach Collier

Cozens was solid after being considered a bit of an “overdraft”. It is actually pretty interesting how close this report is to now. I am much better at identifying why I think these things now.

Cozens is a freak athlete with plenty of raw power.  He has a stiff long swing that will likely have plenty of miss in it, but he has some semblance of an approach.  In the field he can stick in right with his plus arm for now but as a giant already it is hard to project him long term in the outfield.  Even if he has to move to first the bat will play.

De Fratus was coming off an injury prone year, was 25, and looked more limited than he did the previous year. What I didn’t know is that the arm injuries would leave De Fratus either able to command the ball or throw with his old velocity. His career is better than a lot of the people on this list. It is a pity that Ryne Sandberg murdered him. For as much as I panned Cesar Hernandez for being a low power 2B only prospect, I loved Andrew Pullin. Shiny new toys are always better I guess. I also just ranked Daniel Brito high, so maybe some things never change. Austin Wright lost the ability to throw strikes and found himself out of affiliated ball. He improved in Indy ball and spent last year in the Diamondbacks org. I will constantly make the same mistake on Zach Collier. Athletic center fielders who flash power are not exceedingly common. Ranking him over Aaron Altherr was a mistake.

Why Go With Consensus

20. Sebastian Valle

I did not like Sebastian Valle and for not really watching him play I feel like I had strong opinions on him.

Valle has no real approach and just sells out for power at the plate.  This leads to a high strikeout rate with a really low walk rate.  At the major league level that approach will be completely exposed.  Behind the plate Valle is a very good receiver, but he does not have a good release making him below average against the run game despite a plus arm.  Overall Valle will need to improve greatly to have a chance as anything more than a marginal back up.

I ranked him here because BA had him #14 and he was a former top prospect. There is a lesson here somewhere.

Cesar

21. Cesar Hernandez

I am coming around on second base only prospects, but I still don’t get Cesar. He hit for some power in Reading, but that didn’t translate. He also had this problem…

His power is poor and despite plus to plus plus speed he is a poor base stealer.

Cesar has become a better defender and somehow walks at a high rate, despite still lacking any meaningful amount of power. I have struggled with whether I was wrong on Cesar. But it would be two and a half more year before he got a major league shot. He was only hanging around at that point because he was out of options and the Phillies suck. So good on Cesar for improving, I wonder what other players just never get the chances he did.

Far Away Three

22. Mitch Walding
23. Zach Green
24. Ken Giles

Walding just didn’t hit in Williamsport, but the scouting reports were glowing. He didn’t actually hit in the minors until 2016. I still want to believe. Green was the Phillies third round pick in 2012, he hit for more power, but walked a lot less. I praised his defense for some reason, and said it was better than Walding. Walding is now the plus defender at 3B and Green is a 1B/DH. Before Ken Giles was Ken Giles he spend his second year doing some starting and relieving with a lot strikeouts (111 in 82 innings), but pretty poor control (50 walks). Over the next 16 months he would have an oblique injury to both sides, have his delivery tinkered with, add velocity, add control, and see his slider go from maybe average to plus plus. His ranking here is a reflection of just how many things had to go right for him to be a good major leaguer, but also that he had that kind of raw talent.

If You Don’t Like Them, Don’t Rank Them

25. Tyson Gillies

My girlfriend has edited all of the yearly big prospect lists I have written. To this day she still cites Sebastian Valle and Tyson Gillies as players where my contempt of them spilled onto the page. I didn’t think either was a major leaguer and I still ranked them. I should not have. If you have convictions, stand by them. They may be wrong, they may be right with wrong predictions. Just don’t be wrong because you didn’t have the fortitude to stick by your opinion.

Believe in Yourself

26. Kelly Dugan
28. Aaron Altherr

I will get to #27 in a second. I bought into the BABIP thing with Dugan and held him down because I wanted to question the numbers. I course corrected the following year. I still think if it weren’t for the injuries in 2014 and 2015 he gets a shot in the majors. I always liked Aaron Altherr, and wrote this:

I have always liked Altherr as a prospect and I like him even better now that it appears he can stick in center defensively (the arm might make up for not having elite range).  Altherr may never be a star or a solid regular, but I feel more confident after his 2012 that there is a major league player in there (at very least a 4^th outfielder).

I then ranked him where I did on a bad list. Do as I say and not as I do.

Life Comes At You Fast

27. Kevin Brady

Brady fell in the draft due to arm injuries and then dominated in his debut. I thought he could be a decent starter or back end reliever. He got hurt in 2013 and had retired before the end of the season.

Dream Away

29. Jose Pujols
30. Gabriel Lino

Deivi Grullon just missed. I will always love Latin Americans with big tools. I would rather have the chance that I get someone great than something boring. None of them have really hit it big, but Pujols and Grullon still have plenty of time, and for a brief minute it looked like Lino might make it.

The Regrets

• Yoel Mecias
• Cameron Rupp

I liked Mecias the year before he made it big and liked him up until his career ended. These days I would have better reports out of the GCL and you better believe he would have been much higher on this list. I never liked Cameron Rupp, but he made the majors. I still think he isn’t more than backup in the majors.

Pat on the Back

• Brody Colvin

I stuck to my guns and bailed. Why I didn’t do that with others, no clue.

• Tyler Cloyd

This was the writeup and I stand by it

The stuff just isn’t good enough to do anything other than pitch innings.

• David Buchanan

I know Buchanan isn’t a big impact player, but I wrote this about him as a sleeper.

At best he is a #4 starter, but likely he is a #5 or lower, but he could be ready mid-season and be a long man for the major league club.  He has better raw stuff than Cloyd or Hyatt with better groundball tendencies, albeit with much lower strikeout rates

It was a year early, but it has help reinforce something for me. That is to recognize who can make the leap even if you don’t know if they are the one who will do it. I didn’t have confidence in Buchanan, but you give me a lot of Buchanan careers and I am confident one is a back end starter. It turns out we got all of the Buchanan careers in one career.