Reading Eagle Phillies Top 20

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For the second year in a row Mike Drago of the Reading Eagle asked me to participate in his end of year prospect rankings. The rankings aggregated rankings from bloggers, beat writers, announcers, and those that cover prospects for public sites. You can read about the 2015 list here and I am going to do kind of the same format. Present the list (which is published here ) and then talk about the updated rankings I sent Mike.

The list and Mike’s Notes

  • JP Crawford was first on 9 of 15 ballots, and was second on two others. He also received a third, a fourth a fifth and an eighth-place vote.
  • Crawford is the first place to rank No. 1 in three straight seasons since we’ve been doing the rankings (which is almost 10 years, but I don’t have an exact year that we started).
  • Mickey Moniak and Jake Thompson each received two first places, Nick Williams and Rhys Hoskins, one apiece.
  • The bigger riser among the Top Ten was Dylan Cozens, up 18 spots from last season. (However, he was No. 11 in 2014 and No. 15 in 2013).
  • Biggest drop among Top Ten: Cornelius Randolph, from fourth to eighth.
  • Forty-six different players received votes.
  1. J.P. Crawford, SS, Lehigh Valley
  2. Jorge Alfaro, C, Reading
  3. Nick Williams, OF, Lehigh Valley
  4. Jake Thompson, P, Philadelphia
  5. Mickey Moniak, OF, Gulf Coast
  6. Dylan Cozens, OF, Reading
  7. Roman Quinn, OF, Reading
  8. Cornelius Randolph, OF, Lakewood
  9. Franklyn Kilome, P, Lakewood
  10. Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Reading
  11. Scott Kingery, 2B, Reading
  12. Andrew Knapp, C, Lehigh Valley
  13. Adonis Medina, P, Williamsport
  14. Nick Pivetta, P, Lehigh Valley
  15. Jhailyn Ortiz, OF, Gulf Coast
  16. Ricardo Pinto, P, Reading
  17. Elniery Garcia, P, Clearwater
  18. Ben Lively, P, Lehigh Valley
  19. Kevin Gowdy, P, Gulf Coast
  20. Carlos Tocci, OF, Clearwater

Others receiving multiple votes( in order of vote total):

  • Mark Appel, P, Lehigh Valley
  • Sixto Sanchez, P, Gulf Coast
  • Jimmy Cordeo, P, Reading
  • Cole Stobbe, SS, Gulf Coast
  • Jose Pujols, OF, Lakewood
  • Alberto Tirado, P, Lakewood
  • Alec Asher, P, Lehigh Valley
  • Thomas Eshelman, P, Reading
  • Drew Anderson, P, Clearwater
  • Andrew Pullin, OF, Reading
  • Cole Irvin, P, Williamsport
  • Arquimedes Gamboa, Williamsport
  • JoJo Romero, P, Williamsport
  • Malquin Canelo, SS, Clearwater
  • Tyler Viza, P, Reading

Some other people chose to make their votes public or mostly public: Mike Drago, Jim Peyton, Baseball Betsy, and Mitch Rupert.

Here is the list I sent in, it is a bit different from my midseason list.

  1. J.P. Crawford
  2. Jorge Alfaro
  3. Nick Williams
  4. Mickey Moniak
  5. Jake Thompson
  6. Franklyn Kilome
  7. Sixto Sanchez
  8. Cornelius Randolph
  9. Kevin Gowdy
  10. Roman Quinn
  11. Scott Kingery
  12. Adonis Medina
  13. Rhys Hoskins
  14. Nick Pivetta
  15. Dylan Cozens
  16. Andrew Knapp
  17. Jhailyn Ortiz
  18. Arquimedez Gamboa
  19. Carlos Tocci
  20. Ricardo Pinto
  21. Cole Stobbe
  22. Deivi Grullon
  23. Mark Appel
  24. Jose Pujols
  25. Seranthony Dominguez

Some thoughts on what has changed since the midseason list.

  • I thought about jumping Alfaro to #2 at midseason, but the continued success he has had and improved walk rate coupled with him being a catcher long term just made me move him up. Williams’ horrid August didn’t help and almost dropped him behind Moniak.
  • Sixto Sanchez was unofficially #17 3 weeks ago. What changed in those weeks is I got more voices that agreed with what I was hearing on him, which allowed me to feel more confident in pushing him up the rankings. It doesn’t hurt that he hit 99 again and added a low 90s slider in that time.
  • Scott Kingery dropped a spot with Quinn back healthy and Scott’s own ballooning K rate in AA.
  • Knapp dropped behind the group of Reading (and now IronPigs) prospects. Cozens has but the best numbers, but Hoskins showed improved plate discipline and Pivetta added two solid AAA starts to his care.
  • The last spot was a debate between Dominguez, Tirado, Valentin, Garcia, Eshelman, and to some extent Lively. I know Tirado has looked better of late, but the changeup has not been there and there are still some long term control worries, which point more to a future in the bullpen. Dominguez has been good this year and shown more upside than anyone else in the group, which had him make the cut.

Image By Baseball Betsy

17 thoughts on “Reading Eagle Phillies Top 20”

  1. Stuff wise, Pivetta has to be the best arm out of anyone at AA/AAA in this system and he’s not in the top 10-12…meanwhile Gowdy has thrown 8 innings and is in the top 10. I understand why Gowdy gets slotted ahead, but I emphatically disagree with prospect list makers in this regard. Pivetta has spent the entire year putting to use whatever he worked on in the offseason, and has continued to work on in-season, with great results and yet he’s not making sizable jumps.

    Dylan Cozens is making those jumps, yet somehow the report has largely stayed the same on him: Stiff in his motions, huge power, worrying L/R splits and H/R splits, destined for LF or 1B. Yea, the power showed up in one of the best hitting parks on the east coast, and now he gets a free pass to jump right over the hopscotch board of everyone else.

    I got beef! 😛

    • Pivetta does not throw a workable changeup which makes his likely outcome still as a reliever. Gowdy throws 90-93 T94 as an 18 year old, shows an advanced slider and his changeup is probably already better than Pivetta’s. He has room to fill out and throw harder and add to his secondaries. His upside is well beyond Pivetta’s.

      • Like I said, I understand why Gowdy is there…I really do, but the kid has thrown 8 innings in pro ball, and I would find it tough to believe if he’s the first 18 year old with that set of skills.

        I invoked the never ending battle of upside & impact vs. stickability vs. bustability…it seems that triangle will never quite get solved.

    • Sorry, this sounds like an attack on the people who contributed to this article…more of a general quarrel with making prospect lists.

  2. Love the Sixto hype. With him at 7, are you arguing that he should be (but he won’t be) on the edge of top 100 conversations? Because I imagine the top 5 and maybe Kilome will be in most or all post season top 100s.

  3. I’m a little surprised that Crawford was #3 or lower on several lists. I realize he is not having a breakout year statistically, but the guy is widely considered to be top 5 if not #1 in baseball, so it’s hard to believe over a third of the group didn’t even have him as #1 on the Phillies. Not knocking Jake Thompson, but…

    • I’m actually surprised JPC is ranked as high as he is. He has not shown much power at any level. Very good prospect but #1? I don’t think so.

      • Easy #1 and not even close. Still only 21 years old and is a very good defender at SS with a great batting eye. Two years ago I watch him take ball out of Target Field (Minnesota) a park known for killing LH power during BP. The power is in there for 15+ home runs a year. Might be the #1 prospect in baseball.

        • I should have clarified… #1 in Phillies’ system, sure. I was just questioning #1 status in all of baseball. Thanks for the reply, Matt.

  4. Why wouldn’t Jhailyn Ortiz be ranked closer to his top 10 teammates? He answered questions that hurt his stock and his ceiling is as high as anyone’s. Is any particular stat a cause for concern?

    • Moniak has better tools and safety highlighted by his ability to stay up the middle defensively. Sanchez has some of the best stuff at his level and I am big fan of Gowdy. As for Ortiz, the body is still a potential long term issue, his pitch recognition is not great, but improving. In the end I couldn’t bring myself to put him over Dylan Cozens. I don’t think there is a huge gap from Gowdy to him, which is why lists are a bit deceptive, because a bunch of players are bunched and that makes it seem like there are large gaps.

  5. @Matt – I also asked Mitch’s take on Gamboa. He seems to be high on both of your list – above Stobbe? I haven’t seen Gamboa a lot but he’s profile is like Malquin Canelo 2.0.

    • Much better upside than Canelo. Gamboa could be very very good defensive shortstop. His bat isn’t there, but he is also one of the 3 youngest players in the New York Penn League, so don’t judge by the numbers. He is a quick twitch athlete who could be a very good prospect down the road. I like Stobbe’s bat, but he is not sticking at short and he will need to hit more at third base.

      • @Matt – thanks!! I guess time for me to see Gamboa in person. it appears that the LA market has a lot of slick fielding SS that’s why i think Gamboa is replaceable. I agree with Stobbe though.

  6. Matt, Do you think Knapp will hit enough to be the B/U catcher on the big team next season? If not, will Alfaro jump him at the AAA level?

  8. Good list. I’m a little lower on Kilome and higher on Ortiz at this point, but there’s time. Sixto is exciting, to go with Adonis Medina’s breakout.

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