Elias Marrero

Role: #3 Starter that sometimes looks like a 2
Risk: Medium – Abel’s stuff has not taken a backseat from when he looked like a front of the rotation starting pitcher. He has struggled with his command, in particular in getting hitters to expand the zone, and that development is worrying enough to think he might not have the consistency to be a front line arm, even if he flashes it.
Summary: It was sort of a weird year for Mick Abel, full of many changes that often went unnoticed under the surface numbers. He has started to really grow into his velocity, and while there is room for more, Baseball America (who has access to the full minor league data set) reported his fastball averaged 95.9 mph, and my tracking had him as 95-98 in most of his starts, getting up to 100. He faded some in his last start for Lehigh Valley, and he does lose some velocity during his starts, but he still has some room to add the strength and stamina. He doesn’t have ideal movement on his 4-seamer, but he gets good extension and consequently gets pretty low and flat despite his height. This makes it a good weapon up in the zone for swings and misses. In the last month or two of the season he began throwing a sinker as well, and it has large vertical and horizontal separation from his fastball. He throws a harder changeup (89-92mph when he was throwing the fastball in the upper 90s) that has improved over time and should actually be a good weapon for him. The biggest change is in his breaking balls. When Abel was drafted he had a more typical slider shape. That was lengthened out last year to a sweeper, but he never really had good feel or results with it and it blended with his curveball. They scrapped the sweeper in the middle of the year in favor of a harder gyro slider, and it already plays off his arsenal better. This allows him to more easily feature his two plane curveball, and it has grown into a plus pitch he is comfortable throwing in the zone or for chases. In the spring Abel toyed with a cutter, but given the slider change, the cutter likely gets put on the shelf as the cutter plays more in the same role as his new slider, as opposed to aiding a sweeper.

The problem with Abel has been command. He does have some occasional control problems stemming from some inconsistencies in repeating his delivery. He will just throw some uncompetitive pitches that will put him in unfavorable counts and compound his other issues. The Phillies are looking to simplify his delivery and shorten his arm path a bit, and that combined with getting stronger in his lower half is the planned solution to the delivery issues. The other command problem is less tangible and more interlinked into his full arsenal. Abel has a collection of above average to plus pitches, and while he can elevate the fastball up for misses, he lacks a true dominant pitch to get outs in the zone with. He has struggled to get chases out of the zone, and he has racked up balls and consequently walks. Some of the problem is that his arsenal had become predictable, with hitters laying off the fastball up and out or breaking balls away. There was some talk that he was also tipping the breaking ball some. To counter the arsenal problems, the Phillies have made some of the arsenal changes. The new slider is more of a weapon in the zone than the sweeper and, like the curveball, plays better off the 4-seam fastball up. The introduction of the sinker gives him another weapon against right handed batters, and a pitch that can work in the zone for poor contact. The sinker will also give him a more viable way to attack the bottom of the strike zone and open up the changeup as a chase pitch low, as opposed to having to play off the high four seamer.

It is a large arsenal for a 22 year old pitcher in AA, but if the previous arsenal visions of Painter and Abel were Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, then he is now more of a Zack Wheeler clone. He has a similar build and delivery to Wheeler, and now he has an arsenal that more resembles the current Phillies ace’s toolbox of weapons. Wheeler took a while to put it all together, and if Abel is going to hit a front of the rotation upside, it might be years into his major league career as his body fills out more and he has better command of how to use his full arsenal. Abel’s primary role in 2024 will be finding that consistent delivery and working on refining his collection of pitches. He also finds himself at the top of the minor league starting pitching depth chart and near to his major league debut.
2024 Outlook: Abel pitched a full season of innings the last two years and had the one start cameo in Lehigh Valley to end the year. He will need to be added to the 40 man roster after the year anyway, and as of right now is probably the Phillies #6 starting pitcher, but given his developmental needs it is likely they turn to others on spot starts, and he won’t get a turn unless there is a longer injury.