Name: Micah Ottenbreit
Position: RHP
Born: May 7, 2003
Country: US
Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight: 6’4″ 190lbs
How Acquired: Drafted in the 4th Round of the 2021 Draft by the Phillies
Signed: July 17, 2021
Bonus: $772,500
Options Remaining: 3
Rule 5 Eligible: 2025
MiLB Free Agency: 2027
Stats
Pitcher Statcast
*Statcast data only available for FSL (2021-2023), AAA (2023), and isolated select games and locations.
| Pitch Type | Year | # of Pitches | Average Velocity | Max Velocity | Median Spin | VBreak | HBreak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 2021 | 6 | 94.0 | 94.5 | 2321 | 13 | -12 |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 2022 | 4 | 90.7 | 91.8 | 20 | -11 | |
| Sinker | 2021 | 6 | 91.8 | 93.4 | 2381 | 16 | -14 |
| Sinker | 2022 | 46 | 90.7 | 93.7 | 2156 | 21 | -16 |
| Changeup | 2021 | 2 | 83.9 | 84.4 | 2064 | 29 | -18 |
| Changeup | 2022 | 13 | 83.9 | 87.2 | 1973 | 30 | -17 |
| Curveball | 2021 | 5 | 79.9 | 81.7 | 2847 | 59 | 10 |
| Curveball | 2022 | 27 | 78.8 | 83.0 | 2578 | 54 | 13 |
Pitcher Tracking
*Pitch tracking data sourced from Statcast, broadcasts, and individual reports
| Pitch Type | Year | Velocity Low | Velocity High | Velocity Max | Games Tracked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FA | 2023 | 92 | 94 | 94 | 1 |
| FA | 2022 | 87 | 93 | 93 | 2 |
| FA | 2021 | 90 | 94 | 94 | 2 |
| CH | 2023 | 86 | 0 | 86 | 1 |
| CH | 2022 | 81 | 85 | 86 | 2 |
| CH | 2021 | 83 | 84 | 84 | 1 |
| CB | 2023 | 81 | 82 | 82 | 1 |
| CB | 2022 | 75 | 80 | 81 | 2 |
| CB | 2021 | 77 | 81 | 81 | 2 |
Prospect Rankings
Role: #3/#4 Starter
Risk: Extreme – Ottenbreit was drafted in 2021 and has pitched 14 innings since then and had major surgery in the middle of it. It would be easy to knock his ceiling down or say he is probably a reliever, but we really don’t know, so I am holding him at the previous projection and saying his risk is probably higher than any player in the system.
Summary: Ottenbreit was a raw pitcher when the Phillies took him out of a Michigan high school in 2021. He then pitched in two games in 2022 before having to have Tommy John surgery, and then two games in 2023 before having a setback. According to Steve Potter, he was throwing bullpens late in the fall, so he appears to be healthy heading into the offseason. Ottenbreit had projection coming out of the draft, and it is unsurprising that he had some velocity in his brief appearance in 2023, sitting 92-94 in his second appearance. The pitch has a good spin rate, but I am going to hold off on movement judgment until I have more than a few pitches to work off of. He has a big, high spin (2800-2900 RPM this season) curveball in the low 80s that will likely be his primary weapon. He also throws a changeup. He previously struggled with control based on delivery inconsistencies, and we will need to wait until he is more removed from surgery before making any big judgments. After essentially missing the last two seasons, the big thing for Ottenbreit will be staying healthy and pitching innings. He still has the upside to be one of the better pitching prospects in the organization if he can be healthy and get back on track.
2024 Outlook: Ottenbreit was supposedly healthy by the end of the year, but given his lack of time on the mound the last two years, it is likely his innings will be capped in 2024. He should return to Clearwater where the goal will be to throw healthy innings.
Role: #3/#4 Starter
Risk: Extreme – This is exactly where Ottenbreit was last year, and now he has an arm injury and a year of missed development, so it is a bit more extreme, extreme. Until we see how he looks back healthy it will be difficult to adjust the outcome projections.
Summary: Micah Ottenbreit looked to be poised for a breakout season. He was a cold weather high school arm showing a mid 90s fastball and high spin curveball in his brief cameo in the FCL in 2021. Things looked off quickly for Ottenbreit in 2022. He showed poor control in his first start, as well as a fastball sitting 90-91 for much of his first two innings before showing some 93 late. His second start was 87 to 89 to open, with his offspeed pitches showing similar velocity drops, a slight spike into the low 90s late was not a point of optimism, as he quickly went onto the IL after the start eventually needing Tommy John surgery. Theoretically, Ottenbreit should be throwing by spring with an expected return by mid to late summer.
Before the injury, Ottenbreit looked like he could be a mid rotation starter with the potential for 3 above average to plus pitches if he filled out his frame. The first thing will be to see if he can come back with his velocity intact or improved, as it will likely be another year before he can necessarily see if he has made the control gains he needs to stay in a rotation.
2023 Outlook: Ottenbreit had surgery early in the season, so it would be expected he would start throwing in Extended Spring Training with a probable return to game action over the summer. His results will matter less than if he can throw healthy and at least achieve where he was before the injury.
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Role: #3/#4 Starter
Risk: Extreme – Ottenbreit is all projection. His fastball and curveball have good attributes, and he has a decent changeup for his age. However, his control is still well behind where it needs to be, and he will need velocity and strength growth.
Summary: Ottenbreit is the type of prospect you could have seen going to college for 3 years and coming out of the draft as a high round pick. His fastball is currently up to 94 with good attributes, and he has the frame to fill out and add at least another grade to his velocity. His curveball has high spin and big depth, and right now profiles as his best secondary pitch. He has a changeup that is already usable as well. Ottenbreit’s control has been poor so far, and he will need to find consistency with time. If Ottenbreit can fill out his 6’4” frame and find consistency he has mid rotation upside.
2022 Outlook: With no more short season ball, it makes sense for Ottenbreit to jump straight to Clearwater, rather than wait for the start of the FCL season.
Role: #3/#4 Starter
Risk: Extreme – Ottenbreit was drafted in 2021 and has pitched 14 innings since then and had major surgery in the middle of it. It would be easy to knock his ceiling down or say he is probably a reliever, but we really don’t know, so I am holding him at the previous projection and saying his risk is probably higher than any player in the system.
Summary: Ottenbreit was a raw pitcher when the Phillies took him out of a Michigan high school in 2021. He then pitched in two games in 2022 before having to have Tommy John surgery, and then two games in 2023 before having a setback. According to Steve Potter, he was throwing bullpens late in the fall, so he appears to be healthy heading into the offseason. Ottenbreit had projection coming out of the draft, and it is unsurprising that he had some velocity in his brief appearance in 2023, sitting 92-94 in his second appearance. The pitch has a good spin rate, but I am going to hold off on movement judgment until I have more than a few pitches to work off of. He has a big, high spin (2800-2900 RPM this season) curveball in the low 80s that will likely be his primary weapon. He also throws a changeup. He previously struggled with control based on delivery inconsistencies, and we will need to wait until he is more removed from surgery before making any big judgments. After essentially missing the last two seasons, the big thing for Ottenbreit will be staying healthy and pitching innings. He still has the upside to be one of the better pitching prospects in the organization if he can be healthy and get back on track.
2024 Outlook: Ottenbreit was supposedly healthy by the end of the year, but given his lack of time on the mound the last two years, it is likely his innings will be capped in 2024. He should return to Clearwater where the goal will be to throw healthy innings.
Role: #3/#4 Starter
Risk: Extreme – This is exactly where Ottenbreit was last year, and now he has an arm injury and a year of missed development, so it is a bit more extreme, extreme. Until we see how he looks back healthy it will be difficult to adjust the outcome projections.
Summary: Micah Ottenbreit looked to be poised for a breakout season. He was a cold weather high school arm showing a mid 90s fastball and high spin curveball in his brief cameo in the FCL in 2021. Things looked off quickly for Ottenbreit in 2022. He showed poor control in his first start, as well as a fastball sitting 90-91 for much of his first two innings before showing some 93 late. His second start was 87 to 89 to open, with his offspeed pitches showing similar velocity drops, a slight spike into the low 90s late was not a point of optimism, as he quickly went onto the IL after the start eventually needing Tommy John surgery. Theoretically, Ottenbreit should be throwing by spring with an expected return by mid to late summer.
Before the injury, Ottenbreit looked like he could be a mid rotation starter with the potential for 3 above average to plus pitches if he filled out his frame. The first thing will be to see if he can come back with his velocity intact or improved, as it will likely be another year before he can necessarily see if he has made the control gains he needs to stay in a rotation.
2023 Outlook: Ottenbreit had surgery early in the season, so it would be expected he would start throwing in Extended Spring Training with a probable return to game action over the summer. His results will matter less than if he can throw healthy and at least achieve where he was before the injury.
Role: #3/#4 Starter
Risk: Extreme – Ottenbreit is all projection. His fastball and curveball have good attributes, and he has a decent changeup for his age. However, his control is still well behind where it needs to be, and he will need velocity and strength growth.
Summary: Ottenbreit is the type of prospect you could have seen going to college for 3 years and coming out of the draft as a high round pick. His fastball is currently up to 94 with good attributes, and he has the frame to fill out and add at least another grade to his velocity. His curveball has high spin and big depth, and right now profiles as his best secondary pitch. He has a changeup that is already usable as well. Ottenbreit’s control has been poor so far, and he will need to find consistency with time. If Ottenbreit can fill out his 6’4” frame and find consistency he has mid rotation upside.
2022 Outlook: With no more short season ball, it makes sense for Ottenbreit to jump straight to Clearwater, rather than wait for the start of the FCL season.