Alex McFarlane

Role: Frustrating Mid Rotation Starter / Late Inning Reliever
Risk: Extreme – McFarlane flashed big velocity and a monster slider early in the season, but his velocity took a big drop and he eventually had Tommy John surgery, leaving his future role and success much more in doubt.
Summary: McFarlane worked out of the bullpen for most of his junior year in 2022, and after signing, the Phillies started moving him to the rotation, a role that continued into early 2023. The reports out of Spring Training were very good, and he came out firing when the FSL season started. He averaged 98 mph on his fastball in his first start, throwing 4 of them over 100mph and peaking at 100.5. He averaged higher than 96 mph in every start until mid May, when his average velocity on each start kept decreasing sharply. The Phillies eventually shut him down in late June. He came back briefly in August before then being shut down again and eventually having Tommy John surgery. Not surprisingly, given he had been a reliever, McFarlane did have a tendency to lose velocity deeper into starts, and it is a real concern if the Phillies try to have him start post recovery. As for the pitch itself, McFarlane throws a high spin (averaged over 2600 RPM on the season) sinker that has a large amount of drop and armside run. He throws a high spin slider (RPM>2800) with good verticality that sits in the mid 80s. He then will infrequently throw a high 80s changeup that has a good amount of drop off the fastball with similar run. He generally struggled to throw strikes and, despite the velocity, the movement on his fastball made it a good, but not elite pitch. His changeup generally had poor results, and he struggled to throw it in the zone. The special pitch is his slider, which he posted a 56% whiff rate on for the year, and a 42.4% CSW% thanks to also landing it in the zone for called strikes at a high rate (for reference Orion Kerkering’s slider with Clearwater was at 52% whiff rate and 52.9% CSW% due to his elite ability to throw it in the zone). Given the injury, the control problems, and the lack of a usable changeup, McFarlane looks like a reliever. The Phillies have not always been quick to make those sort of changes, so they could run him back out as a starter. If he can throw the fastball and slider in the zone enough to not walk the world, he potentially could be a high leverage, late inning arm. Due to the injury, he will miss all of the 2024 season and will likely be limited in 2025 as well.
2024 Outlook:  McFarlane had Tommy John in the fall and will miss all of the 2024 season. There is a possibility we hear about him throwing bullpens next fall, but he won’t appear in a game until spring 2025.

Role: Infuriating #3 Starter/Late Inning Reliever
Risk: High – McFarlane has a long college track record of not pitching well as a starter, and not getting results equal to his stuff. The Phillies have had a good track record of improving this type of pitcher, so his plight is slightly different than their hitter draftees.
Summary: It is easy to look at McFarlane when the Phillies drafted him and see another Griff McGarry. McFarlane does not have McGarry’s extreme control issues, but he also does not have the track record as a starting pitcher. McGarry had a good run in the NCAA tournament before the draft, and McFarlane had a good 5 appearances in the Cape Cod League. Both have big spin on all of their pitches and can unleash some highlight reel stuff. That is where the comparison mostly ends. McGarry came out and looked elite in starts that stretched up to hi-A and McFarlane made 3 very ordinary statistical appearances for Clearwater.

The fastball is another derivation. McFarlane averages in the mid 90s and got up to 98 in the pros, and 99 in college. Both his 4-seam fastball and sinker averaged about 2700 RPM in his pro debut, but his 4-seamer has more run and sink than the riding fastballs of the Phillies top pitching prospects. His sinker looks really nasty on video, with strong armside run, but the movement profile means it tends to break into the hitting path more than an elite fastball. He does back it up with some good secondary pitches with his changeup picking up where the fastball leaves off with less fade and run, and more strong boring action down and armside. He can run it off the plate to lefties and down to righties, and it is a true plus pitch and it might be his out pitch long term. He has a high spin sweeping slider that flashes plus potential as well. He can throw all of his pitches around the strike zone, but he lacks command of them.

McFarlane is sort of the opposite of Rincones, in that he is a development case we have seen from the Phillies before. He doesn’t have the exact attributes of Nola or Suarez, but the Phillies have molded sinker heavy pitchers just as much as they have the ones with high spin rise ball fastballs. If you heard he added a cutter to play off the slider and sinker, it would not surprise you. He has not yet made those changes though, and he still remains a player with an non-ideal arsenal that does not seem to get the results to match the look.
2023 Outlook: McFarlane is a high round pick who started games in a major conference, it would be a surprise to not see him at Jersey Shore to start the year. Given the current shape of his arsenal, it will be an early watch point to see what changes the Phillies make to optimize it over time.