Name: Ethan Wilson
Position: OF
Born: November 7, 1999
Country: US
Bats/Throws: L/L
Height/Weight: 6’1″ 210lbs
How Acquired: Drafted in the 2nd Round of the 2021 Draft by the Phillies
Signed: July 17, 2021
Bonus: $1,507,600
Options Remaining: 3
Rule 5 Eligible: 2024
MiLB Free Agency: 2027
Stats
Prospect Rankings
Role: Platoon Outfielder
Risk: High – Wilson does not destroy opposite side pitching and has limited defensive utility. He will need to find more consistent power output in order to make himself attractive in any sort of MLB role.
Summary: On paper it was a much better 2023 season for Wilson than his 2022, his power was way up and he cut his strikeout rate a bit. However, he also moved from one of the least hitter friendly parks to one of the most friendly parks in the minors (though I should note he did not have dramatic home/road splits in 2023). The power output is certainly a positive outcome, however he hit 9 of his 17 home runs in May and June, and his growth was mostly in a spike in HR/FB rate and not in overall batted ball profile. His approach at the plate and swing and miss continued to be poor, and outside of August (12 walks to 21 strikeouts), his numbers were very poor (19 walks to 89 strikeouts). Additionally, he struggled greatly vs LHPs, and the Phillies were already working him in a heavy platoon in AA. He is still an only ok defender in the outfield and should really only play left field. Overall, it was a year where Wilson needed to show that 2022 was an aberration and instead it solidified much of it as the new normal. He is closer to providing some sort of major league utility, likely an up and down platoon bat, but he remains far away from his draft promise.
2024 Outlook: The IronPigs outfield already looks full, so it would not be surprising if Wilson returns to Reading to try and force his way into the Phillies plans.
Role: Second Division Left Fielder
Risk: Extreme – The Ethan Wilson that played in 2022 was widely considered not a prospect. He is a corner outfielder who did not hit for any impact, and did not show any inclination that he was changing that trajectory. He was highly regarded out of college, so maybe an offseason is enough to help him get back on track.
Summary: Wilson was one of the best hitters in college baseball in 2021, showing huge growths in contact and approach, though at the expense of the power that put him on the map in 2019. The word out of the complex to end last season was that Wilson’s poor results with the Threshers were due to exhaustion and working to marry the power stroke of 2019 and the contact and approach of 2021.
The 2022 season was a disaster for Wilson. His swing decisions were poor, with only a decent feel for getting the bat on the ball, keeping the strikeout rate at a reasonable level. Otherwise, his walk rate cratered and his contact quality collapsed as he made contact on bad pitches. He hit the ball on the ground or weakly in the air as his bat path just was not conducive to driving the ball. The general consensus from those that saw him was that he did not look like a prospect at all. His offensive struggles are exacerbated by his defensive limitations. Wilson moves pretty well, but not well enough for center field, and his arm is really not a good fit in right. That means he is left field only and a passable, but not plus, defender out there. That leaves all of his value dependent on his offensive output.
Given his college track record, and the Phillies hitting development struggles, it is probably too early to permanently bury Wilson. However, his prospect stature is not a measure of what he looked like in 2022, it is more of a reflection on the past talent and that a new set of development eyes may be able to unlock that again.
2023 Outlook: The Phillies pushed Wilson to AA to end the season, so that is probably where he starts the 2023 season. There are not any outfield prospects really pushing Wilson from below, so he should have time to try and get back on track.
Role: Everyday Regular
Risk: Medium – Wilson has shown plus contact abilities and plus power, but not both in the same college season. However, he has a proven track record of providing offensive impact, and there is a decent chance he can do enough of it to overcome his left field only defensive profile.
Summary: Ethan Wilson put himself on the draft map with a monster freshman year at South Alabama. He posted some concerning strikeout numbers in a very short sophomore year, before showing huge gains in contact abilities (8.3% strikeout rate) but a corresponding drop off in power. The goal for Wilson and the Phillies hitting coaches will be to find a way to regain the plus power while also keeping some of the contact gains. Given what he has shown, he is likely not the premier hitter on a playoff team, but someone who could hit 5th to 7th on a good team. Wilson will need to hit, because he is probably left field only long term. He is a good defender out there, but not enough speed for center and not enough arm for right will likely make it his permanent major league home, even if he plays the other positions in the minors. Wilson is a polished college bat with solid upside, and he should move fairly quickly through the minors.
2022 Outlook: As a college performer who did not embarrass himself at low-A, Wilson likely makes the jump to Jersey Shore to open 2022. Given his college track record, it would not be a surprise if he spent the last bit of 2022 at AA.
Role: Platoon Outfielder
Risk: High – Wilson does not destroy opposite side pitching and has limited defensive utility. He will need to find more consistent power output in order to make himself attractive in any sort of MLB role.
Summary: On paper it was a much better 2023 season for Wilson than his 2022, his power was way up and he cut his strikeout rate a bit. However, he also moved from one of the least hitter friendly parks to one of the most friendly parks in the minors (though I should note he did not have dramatic home/road splits in 2023). The power output is certainly a positive outcome, however he hit 9 of his 17 home runs in May and June, and his growth was mostly in a spike in HR/FB rate and not in overall batted ball profile. His approach at the plate and swing and miss continued to be poor, and outside of August (12 walks to 21 strikeouts), his numbers were very poor (19 walks to 89 strikeouts). Additionally, he struggled greatly vs LHPs, and the Phillies were already working him in a heavy platoon in AA. He is still an only ok defender in the outfield and should really only play left field. Overall, it was a year where Wilson needed to show that 2022 was an aberration and instead it solidified much of it as the new normal. He is closer to providing some sort of major league utility, likely an up and down platoon bat, but he remains far away from his draft promise.
2024 Outlook: The IronPigs outfield already looks full, so it would not be surprising if Wilson returns to Reading to try and force his way into the Phillies plans.
Role: Second Division Left Fielder
Risk: Extreme – The Ethan Wilson that played in 2022 was widely considered not a prospect. He is a corner outfielder who did not hit for any impact, and did not show any inclination that he was changing that trajectory. He was highly regarded out of college, so maybe an offseason is enough to help him get back on track.
Summary: Wilson was one of the best hitters in college baseball in 2021, showing huge growths in contact and approach, though at the expense of the power that put him on the map in 2019. The word out of the complex to end last season was that Wilson’s poor results with the Threshers were due to exhaustion and working to marry the power stroke of 2019 and the contact and approach of 2021.
The 2022 season was a disaster for Wilson. His swing decisions were poor, with only a decent feel for getting the bat on the ball, keeping the strikeout rate at a reasonable level. Otherwise, his walk rate cratered and his contact quality collapsed as he made contact on bad pitches. He hit the ball on the ground or weakly in the air as his bat path just was not conducive to driving the ball. The general consensus from those that saw him was that he did not look like a prospect at all. His offensive struggles are exacerbated by his defensive limitations. Wilson moves pretty well, but not well enough for center field, and his arm is really not a good fit in right. That means he is left field only and a passable, but not plus, defender out there. That leaves all of his value dependent on his offensive output.
Given his college track record, and the Phillies hitting development struggles, it is probably too early to permanently bury Wilson. However, his prospect stature is not a measure of what he looked like in 2022, it is more of a reflection on the past talent and that a new set of development eyes may be able to unlock that again.
2023 Outlook: The Phillies pushed Wilson to AA to end the season, so that is probably where he starts the 2023 season. There are not any outfield prospects really pushing Wilson from below, so he should have time to try and get back on track.
Role: Everyday Regular
Risk: Medium – Wilson has shown plus contact abilities and plus power, but not both in the same college season. However, he has a proven track record of providing offensive impact, and there is a decent chance he can do enough of it to overcome his left field only defensive profile.
Summary: Ethan Wilson put himself on the draft map with a monster freshman year at South Alabama. He posted some concerning strikeout numbers in a very short sophomore year, before showing huge gains in contact abilities (8.3% strikeout rate) but a corresponding drop off in power. The goal for Wilson and the Phillies hitting coaches will be to find a way to regain the plus power while also keeping some of the contact gains. Given what he has shown, he is likely not the premier hitter on a playoff team, but someone who could hit 5th to 7th on a good team. Wilson will need to hit, because he is probably left field only long term. He is a good defender out there, but not enough speed for center and not enough arm for right will likely make it his permanent major league home, even if he plays the other positions in the minors. Wilson is a polished college bat with solid upside, and he should move fairly quickly through the minors.
2022 Outlook: As a college performer who did not embarrass himself at low-A, Wilson likely makes the jump to Jersey Shore to open 2022. Given his college track record, it would not be a surprise if he spent the last bit of 2022 at AA.